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At least 19 records

Modeling Modern Methane Emissions from Natural Wetlands: Model Description and Results - 1

Methane is an important greenhouse gas which contributes about 22 percent to the present greenhouse effect. Natural wetlands currently constitute the biggest methane source and were the major source in preindustrial times. Wetland emissions depend highly on the climate, i.e., on soil temperature and water table. To investigate the response of methane emissions from natural wetlands to climate variations, a process-based model that derives methane emissions from natural wetlands as a function of soil temperature, water table, and net primary productivity is used. For its application on the global scale, global data sets for all model parameters are generated. In addition, a simple hydrologic model is developed in order to simulate the position of the water table in wetlands. The hydrologic model is tested against data from different wetland sites, and the sensitivity of the hydrologic model to changes in precipitation is examined. The global methane­ hydrology model constitutes a tool to study temporal and spatial variations in methane emissions from natural wetlands. The model is applied using high-frequency atmospheric forcing fields from European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) re-analyses of the period from 1982 to 1993. We calculate global annual methane emissions from wetlands to be 260 teragrams per year. Twenty-five percent of these methane emissions originate from wetlands north of 30 degrees North Latitude. Only 60 percent of the produced methane is emitted, while the rest is re-oxidized. A comparison of zonal integrals of simulated global wetland emissions and results obtained by an inverse modeling approach shows good agreement. In a test with data from two wetlands the seasonality of simulated and observed methane emissions agrees well.

Biogeochemical processes↗

Air temperature and precipitation constraining the modelled wetland methane emissions in a boreal region in northern Europe

Wetland methane responses to temperature and precipitation are studied in a boreal wetland-rich region in northern Europe using ecosystem process models. Six ecosystem models (JSBACH-HIMMELI, LPX-Bern, LPJ-GUESS, JULES, CLM4.5, and CLM5) are compared to multi-model means of ecosystem models and atmospheric inversions from the Global Carbon Project and upscaled eddy covariance flux results for their temperature and precipitation responses and seasonal cycles of the regional fluxes. Two models with contrasting response patterns, LPX-Bern and JSBACH-HIMMELI, are used as priors in atmospheric inversions with Carbon Tracker Europe–CH4 (CTE-CH4) in order to find out how the assimilation of atmospheric concentration data changes the flux estimates and how this alters the interpretation of the flux responses to temperature and precipitation. Inversion moves wetland emissions of both models towards co-limitation by temperature and precipitation. Between 2000 and 2018, periods of high temperature and/or high precipitation often resulted in increased emissions. However, the dry summer of 2018 did not result in increased emissions despite the high temperatures. The process models show strong temperature and strong precipitation responses for the region (51 %–91 % of the variance explained by both). The month with the highest emissions varies from May to September among the models. However, multi-model means, inversions, and upscaled eddy covariance flux observations agree on the month of maximum emissions and are co-limited by temperature and precipitation. The setup of different emission components (peatland emissions, mineral land fluxes) has an important role in building up the response patterns. Considering the significant differences among the models, it is essential to pay more attention to the regional representation of wet and dry mineral soils and periodic flooding which contribute to the seasonality and magnitude of methane fluxes. The realistic representation of temperature dependence of the peat soil fluxes is also important. Furthermore, it is important to use process-based descriptions for both mineral and peat soil fluxes to simulate the flux responses to climate drivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling Wetland Vegetation using Polarimetric SAR

A three-year project to study small-scale topographic changes and relict geomorphic features on barrier islands using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is described. A study area on the Texas coast consisting of Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula was overflown by the NASA/JPL DC 8 AIRSAR in April 1995. Data was acquired in the fully polarimetric mode using C-, L-, and P-bands and in the TOPSAR configuration with C- and L-bands in interferometric mode. The study area will be overflown again in late spring 1996. The data will be registered to global positioning system (GPS) surveyed points to form high resolution digital elevation models (DEM) and then analyzed to investigate possible topographic changes.

Slatton, K. Clint↗

Causality guided machine learning model on wetland CH 4 emissions across global wetlands

Wetland CH 4 emissions are among the most uncertain components of the global CH 4 budget. The complex nature of wetland CH 4 processes makes it challenging to identify causal relationships for improving our understanding and predictability of CH 4 emissions. In this study, we used the flux measurements of CH 4 from eddy covariance towers (30 sites from 4 wetlands types: bog, fen, marsh, and wet tundra) to construct a causality-constrained machine learning (ML) framework to explain the regulative factors and to capture CH 4 emissions at sub-seasonal scale. We found that soil temperature is the dominant factor for CH 4 emissions in all studied wetland types. Ecosystem respiration (CO 2 ) and gross primary productivity exert controls at bog, fen, and marsh sites with lagged responses of days to weeks. Integrating these asynchronous environmental and biological causal relationships in predictive models significantly improved model performance. More importantly, modeled CH 4 emissions differed by up to a factor of 4 under a +1°C warming scenario when causality constraints were considered. These results highlight the significant role of causality in modeling wetland CH 4 emissions especially under future warming conditions, while traditional data-driven ML models may reproduce observations for the wrong reasons. Our proposed causality-guided model could benefit predictive modeling, large-scale upscaling, data gap-filling, and surrogate modeling of wetland CH 4 emissions within earth system land models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterizing Performance of Freshwater Wetland Methane Models Across Time Scales at FLUXNET-CH 4 Sites Using Wavelet Analyses

Process-based land surface models are important tools for estimating global wetland methane (CH 4 ) emissions and projecting their behavior across space and time. So far there are no performance assessments of model responses to drivers at multiple time scales. In this study, we apply wavelet analysis to identify the dominant time scales contributing to model uncertainty in the frequency domain. We evaluate seven wetland models at 23 eddy covariance tower sites. Our study first characterizes site-level patterns of freshwater wetland CH 4 fluxes (FCH 4 ) at different time scales. A Monte Carlo approach was developed to incorporate flux observation error to avoid misidentification of the time scales that dominate model error. Our results suggest that (a) significant model-observation disagreements are mainly at multi-day time scales (<15 days); (b) most of the models can capture the CH 4 variability at monthly and seasonal time scales (>32 days) for the boreal and Arctic tundra wetland sites but have significant bias in variability at seasonal time scales for temperate and tropical/subtropical sites; (c) model errors exhibit increasing power spectrum as time scale increases, indicating that biases at time scales <5 days could contribute to persistent systematic biases on longer time scales; and (d) differences in error pattern are related to model structure (e.g., proxy of CH 4 production). Our evaluation suggests the need to accurately replicate FCH 4 variability, especially at short time scales, in future wetland CH 4 model developments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A multi-algorithm approach for modeling coastal wetland eco-geomorphology

Coastal wetlands play an important role in the global water and biogeochemical cycles. Climate change makes it more difficult for these ecosystems to adapt to the fluctuation in sea levels and other environmental changes. Given the importance of eco-geomorphological processes for coastal wetland resilience, many eco-geomorphology models differing in complexity and numerical schemes have been developed in recent decades. However, their divergent estimates of the response of coastal wetlands to climate change indicate that substantial structural uncertainties exist in these models. To investigate the structural uncertainty of coastal wetland eco-geomorphology models, we developed a multi-algorithm model framework of eco-geomorphological processes, such as mineral accretion and organic matter accretion, within a single hydrodynamics model. The framework is designed to explore possible ways to represent coastal wetland eco-geomorphology in Earth system models and reduce the related uncertainties in global applications. We tested this model framework at three representative coastal wetland sites: two saltmarsh wetlands (Venice Lagoon and Plum Island Estuary) and a mangrove wetland (Hunter Estuary). Through the model–data comparison, we showed the importance of using a multi-algorithm ensemble approach for more robust predictions of the evolution of coastal wetlands. We also found that more observations of mineral and organic matter accretion at different elevations of coastal wetlands and evaluation of the coastal wetland models at different sites in diverse environments can help reduce the model uncertainty.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Dataset for scientific paper "Simulated plant‑mediated oxygen input has strong impacts on fine‑scale porewater biogeochemistry and weak impacts on integrated methane fluxes in coastal wetlands", a modeling study based on field observation at the tidal salt marshes of the Parker River Estuary, Massachusetts, United States

This dataset is the raw and processed data for the paper "Simulated plant ‑ mediated oxygen input has strong impacts on fine ‑ scale porewater biogeochemistry and weak impacts on integrated methane fluxes in coastal wetlands". This study investigated how plant-mediated oxygen input affects subsurface biogeochemical reactions of organic carbon degradation and the resulting methane emissions of coastal wetlands by model simulation. We used the subsurface geochemical simulator PFLOTRAN for the modeling, which produced the simulated changes in porewater chemical substances and methane emissions over 10 days under different scenarios of plant-mediated oxygen input.Specifically, this dataset contains: 1) the input files for PFLOTRAN of all simulation runs conducted in this study. Those files are with an extension of ".in", containing information of the biogeochemical reaction network (stoichiometry, reaction rate, Monod constants, etc), fluid flow rate and oxygen concentration in the fluid which together simulated the plant-mediated oxygen input, the configuration of artificial reactions that simulated the methane fluxes, etc. The PFLOTRAN input files are text files, which can be opened by NotePad, but running these input files will require proper installation of PFLOTRAN (instruction: https://documentation.pflotran.org/user_guide/how_to/installation/installation.html). 2) the raw and processed model output from PFLOTRAN of all simulation runs, and 3) the python scripts used to process the raw model output, including random allocation of root cells, converting raw data into organized formats, calculating the methane fluxes based on the model output, data visualization, etc. The raw and processed model output from PFLOTRAN are in .spydata format, which can be viewed with Python. and 3) the python scripts for data processing and analysis are programming scripts, which can be opened with Python.This modeling work, in particular the model parameterization of root density and initial conditions of porewater concentrations of biogeochemical substances, was based on field measurements at the salt marsh of the Upper Parker River Estuary, Massachusetts, United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling methane dynamics in three wetlands in Northeastern China by using the CLM-Microbe model

Wetlands account for up to 70% of the natural source of methane (CH 4 ) in terrestrial ecosystems on a global scale. Soil microbes are the ultimate producers and biological consumers of CH 4 in wetlands. Therefore, simulating microbial mechanisms of CH 4 production and consumptionwould improve the predictability of CH 4 flux in wetland ecosystems. In this study, we applied a microbial-explicit model, the CLM-Microbe, to simulate CH 4 flux in three major natural wetlands in northeastern China. The CLM-Microbe model was able to capture the seasonal variation of gross primary productivity (GPP), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and CH 4 flux. The CLM-Microbe model explained more than 40% of the variation in GPP and CH 4 flux across sites. Marsh wetlands had higher CH 4 flux than mountain peatlands. Ebullition dominated the CH 4 transport pathway in all three wetlands. The methanogenesis dominates while methanotroph makes a minor contribution to the CH 4 flux, making all wetlands a CH 4 source. Sensitivity analysis indicated that microbial growth and death rates are the key factors governing CH 4 emission and vegetation physiological properties (flnr) and maintenance respiration predominate GPP variation. Explicitly simulating microbial processes allows genomic information to be incorporated, laying a foundation for better predicting CH 4 dynamics under the changing environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tracking the environmental impacts of ecological engineering on coastal wetlands with numerical modeling and remote sensing

Coastal wetlands are the most valuable ecosystems on the earth but facing severe degradation and losses owing to climate change and anthropogenic activities. Many ecological engineering projects (EEP) have been conducted to mitigate the degradation of coastal wetlands. However, the geomorphological impacts of EEP on coastal wetlands have not been well documented. In this study, a method employed a process-based hydrodynamic model and remote sensing (RS) was developed to evaluate the impacts of EEP on the geomorphological change of a prototype Ramsar site. Results demonstrated that RS has great potential in improving the quality of bathymetry data for the numerical model with a decrease of RMSE from 0.52 m to 0.3 m. It also showed good capacity in trend detection of geomorphological change spatially. Results showed the Chongming Dongtan wetland experienced erosion with an annual rate of -0.035 m/yr from 2013 to 2016 after the implementation of EEP. The deposition rate changed significantly in the area within 200 m of the EEP. It is found that the EEP modified the composition of vegetation, sediment transportation, as well as substrate stability, affecting the geomorphological change of coastal wetlands. It is suggested that the EEP with moderate anthropogenic disturbance is a direct and effective way to recover the coastal habitats for waterbirds. However, the modification of the coastal wetland ecosystem by EEP will lead to the potential vulnerability to global climate change. Therefore, how to mitigate the advantages and disadvantages of the EEP is needed to be further studied to find a more sustainable way for coastal management.

geomorphological change, coastal wetlands, Ecologi↗

Future Response of Coastal Wetlands to Environmental Stresses: Algorithm Comparison of Numerical Models

Coastal wetlands are a critical component of the earth system that strongly influence the global water and biogeochemical cycles. They are also likely important sentinel of climate change. Because eco-geomorphological processes have long been recognized to be important for coastal wetland survival under accelerated sea-level rise (SLR), many eco-geomorphology models have been developed to assess the impact of climate change on coastal wetlands. Although these models differ substantially in complexity and numerical methods, few studies have investigated the algorithm-level uncertainties in these models. In this study, we developed a multiple-algorithm model framework of coastal wetlands that represents coastal hydrodynamics (such as water level, significant wave height and bottom shear stress) and four eco-geomorphological processes: mineral accretion, organic matter accretion, storm surge erosion and landward migration. We validated the model at three representative coastal wetland sites (Venice Lagoon, Plum Island Estuary and Hunter Estuary) for hydrodynamics, mineral accretion and organic matter accretion. Through model-data comparison, we showed that the model can well capture the dynamics of hydrodynamical and eco-geomorphological conditions in the study sites. Importantly, analysis of the multiple-algorithm simulations suggests that differences in the process representation of mineral and organic matter accretion may contribute to the recent contradicting predictions of coastal wetland evolution under accelerated SLR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mapping Wetland and Riparian Areas to Support Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout Habitat Restoration

The Rio Grande cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarki virginalis; RGCT) population has declined significantly over the last century due to habitat loss, competition, and hybridization with non-native trout species. The species currently occupies roughly 11% of its historic habitat. Conservation efforts led by government and private actors have succeeded in increasing RGCT populations since the early 2000s. State, federal, and private partners began the largest native trout restoration initiative in North America. Since 2002, these efforts have included wetland and riparian area restoration and RGCT reintroduction. Current restoration efforts focus on restoring the Costilla Creek Watershed located in Colorado and New Mexico to provide cool water temperatures, improve water quality, and maintain suitable habitat for the trout species. To guide these restoration efforts, the team conducted a rapid assessment to locate and characterize wetland and riparian areas in the Costilla Creek watershed. The team utilized NASA data from the Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), as well as the Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI), and the Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) for May 2016 to October 2019. To produce probability maps of wetland presence, the team used the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM) incorporating predictor variables generated from topographic indices, spectral indices, and radar. The top three models (General Wetland model, Stream and Wetland Connectivity model, and Inclusive Wetland model) showed a strong ability to detect wetlands. They all had AUC values greater than 0.9 and had high overlap with wetland areas during visual assessment over high-resolution imagery. The General Wetland model output was converted into a wetland polygon dataset and polygons were classified by wetland type. The resulting maps and datasets will support partners in determining the extent of possible RGCT habitat and identifying where habitat restoration efforts may be needed.

NASA DEVELOP↗

A Process-based, Climate-Sensitive Model to Derive Methane Emissions from Natural Wetlands: Application to 5 Wetland Sites, Sensitivity to Model Parameters and Climate

Methane emissions from natural wetlands constitutes the largest methane source at present and depends highly on the climate. In order to investigate the response of methane emissions from natural wetlands to climate variations, a 1-dimensional process-based climate-sensitive model to derive methane emissions from natural wetlands is developed. In the model the processes leading to methane emission are simulated within a 1-dimensional soil column and the three different transport mechanisms diffusion, plant-mediated transport and ebullition are modeled explicitly. The model forcing consists of daily values of soil temperature, water table and Net Primary Productivity, and at permafrost sites the thaw depth is included. The methane model is tested using observational data obtained at 5 wetland sites located in North America, Europe and Central America, representing a large variety of environmental conditions. It can be shown that in most cases seasonal variations in methane emissions can be explained by the combined effect of changes in soil temperature and the position of the water table. Our results also show that a process-based approach is needed, because there is no simple relationship between these controlling factors and methane emissions that applies to a variety of wetland sites. The sensitivity of the model to the choice of key model parameters is tested and further sensitivity tests are performed to demonstrate how methane emissions from wetlands respond to climate variations.

Walter, Bernadette P.↗

Microbial potentiometric sensor: A new approach to longstanding challenges

The underlying hypothesis of this study is that simple potentiometric measurements between sensing electrodes and a shared reference electrode - Microbial Potentiometric Sesnor (MPS) system - can be employed in a long-term, continuous mode of operation to resolve the spatial and temporal changes in environmental systems. To address the hypothesis, (1) a conceptual description of the MPS system and its postulated principle of operation are provided; (2) the MPS system performance is documented under controlled laboratory conditions; and (3) the capabilities of the MPS system are documented under quiescent and dynamic field condition. In a laboratory setting, the variability among different MPS signals was insignificant confirming the postulated high accuracy and reproducibility of the sensor performance. It also demonstrated statistically significant correlations with dissolved oxygen (DO) and oxidation-reduction potential (ORP) sensors, while showing capabilities of operating under anoxic and anaerobic conditions. Regardless of their locations in the model wetland system, three MPS sensors functioned without interruption and cleaning for a period >2 years, and thus demonstrating long-term durability of the MPS technology. In real batch-wastewater treatment facility, the deployed MPS system signals were able to describe the organic carbon trends and correlate with each treatment phase in a cycle. Data reproducibility and reliability exceeded the expectations better describing the carbon treatment levels than the DO and ORP sensors (p < 4.4 × 10 –162 vs phase adjusted p < 3.0 × 10 –58 ). While MPS signals correlate with specific parameters that describe the local process or environments, it is more prudent to employ both the magnitude and pattern of a composite signal like the MPS signal describe the change to reflect any shift in the local environment. Finally, when compared to a baseline pattern, this change in signal magnitude and pattern reveals important information that can be employed to tailor and optimize any condition or process which involves microorganisms.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Machine Learning Driven Sensitivity Analysis of E3SM Land Model Parameters for Wetland Methane Emissions

Methane (CH 4 ) is globally the second most critical greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide, contributing to 16%–25% of the observed atmospheric warming. Wetlands are the primary natural source of methane emissions globally. However, wetland methane emission estimates from biogeochemistry models contain considerable uncertainty. One of the main sources of this uncertainty arises from the numerous uncertain model parameters within various physical, biological, and chemical processes that influence methane production, oxidation, and transport. Sensitivity Analysis (SA) can help identify critical parameters for methane emission and achieve reduced biases and uncertainties in future projections. This study performs SA for 19 selected parameters responsible for critical biogeochemical processes in the methane module of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). The impact of these parameters on various CH 4 fluxes is examined at 14 FLUXNET- CH 4 sites with diverse vegetation types. Given the extensive number of model simulations needed for global variance-based SA, we employ a machine learning (ML) algorithm to emulate the complex behavior of ELM methane biogeochemistry. We found that parameters linked to CH 4 production and diffusion generally present the highest sensitivities despite apparent seasonal variation. Comparing simulated emissions from perturbed parameter sets against FLUXNET-CH 4 observations revealed that better performances can be achieved at each site compared to the default parameter values. This presents a scope for further improving simulated emissions using parameter calibration with advanced optimization techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Key Environmental and Ecological Variables of Wetland CH 4 and CO 2 Fluxes Change With Warming

Wetlands are important ecosystems for the global carbon cycle, impacting regional and global methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) budgets. This study examines how environmental and ecological variables impact wetland CH 4 flux and net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 (NEE) across 17 sites globally. We also quantified the importance of variables for each wetland type and site at monthly scale under normal and warm temperatures using dominance analysis. We identified soil and air temperature (TS, TA, respectively) as key variables influencing wetland CH4, and latent heat (LE) and shortwave radiation (SW) for NEE under normal and warm conditions. However, the importance of some variables shifted with warming. For predicting the variability of wetland CH4 flux under warming, gross primary productivity (GPP) and LE, replacing wind direction (WD), were dominant variables for tropical swamps, while NEE was important for high-latitude fens and bogs under warm temperatures. For wetland NEE, the role of TA and TS decreased across all wetland types with warming, while vapor pressure deficit (VPD) became more important for mid and high-latitude wetlands. Our results reveal the complex responses of wetland carbon flux to environmental and ecological variables with warming and provide new insights into improving wetland models by incorporating additional variables and accounting for the changing roles of variables in carbon flux under warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Utilizing Earth Observations to Model Probable Coastal Wetland Extent, Sea-Level Rise Inundation Risk, and Assess Impacts on Historic Hawaiian Lands

Climate induced sea-level rise poses a risk to coastal areas on the Island of Hawai’i, and many of the island’s historic cultural lands are in danger of becoming overtaken by wetlands or inundation. In partnership with the County of Hawai’i, State of Hawai’i Department of Land and Natural Resources, and Arizona State University, NASA DEVELOP mapped wetland extent and short-term sea-level rise inundation risk. We utilized Earth observations over a 10-year span (2013 – 2022) that included the NASA MEaSUREs Gridded Sea Surface Height Anomalies and MEaSUREs Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature datasets, United States Geological Survey (USGS) Hawaii Digital Elevation Models (DEM), and in situ tidal gauge data. Flood risk index values were acquired for 5 known Hawai’i flood events between 2019 – 2021 from the Global Flood Mapper tool on Google Earth Engine. We used a random forest model to predict short-term sea-level rise inundation risk along the entire coast of Hawai’i. Current wetland extents and probabilistic locations of new wetlands were modeled with the most recently available data from PlanetScope Surface Reflectance optical imagery (2022), USGS 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) 10m DEM (2020), temperature and precipitation data from the Hawai’i Climate Atlas, and soils data from the Hawai’i Soil Atlas (2014) using the Wetland Intrinsic Potential tool. Results indicated locations that had the highest probability of wetland creation. The end products aimed to help the partners prioritize efforts to meeting regulation requirements for wetlands protection, evaluate the inundation risk to historical features, and support decision-making for their Shoreline Setback and Climate Adaption plans.

Lisa Tanh↗