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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Unveiling the drivers contributing to global wheat yield shocks through quantile regression

Sudden reductions in crop yield (i.e., yield shocks) severely disrupt the food supply, intensify food insecurity, depress farmers' welfare, and worsen a country's economic conditions. Here, we study the spatiotemporal patterns of wheat yield shocks, quantified by the lower quantiles of yield fluctuations, in 86 countries over 30 years. Furthermore, we assess the relationships between shocks and their key ecological and socioeconomic drivers using quantile regression based on statistical (linear quantile mixed model) and machine learning (quantile random forest) models. Using a panel dataset that captures spatiotemporal patterns of yield shocks and possible drivers in 86 countries, we find that the severity of yield shocks has been increasing globally since 1997. Moreover, our cross-validation exercise shows that quantile random forest outperforms the linear quantile regression model. Despite this performance difference, both models consistently reveal that the severity of shocks is associated with higher weather stress, nitrogen fertilizer application rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (a typical indicator for economic and technological advancement in a country). While the unexpected negative association between more severe wheat yield shocks and higher fertilizer application rate and GDP per capita does not imply a direct causal effect, they indicate that the advancement in wheat production has been primarily on achieving higher yields and less on lowering the possibility and magnitude of sharp yield reductions. Hence, in the context of growing extreme weather stress, there is a critical need to enhance the technology and management practices that mitigate yield shocks to improve the resilience of the world food systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impoverishing Roots Will Improve Wheat Yield and Profitability Through Increased Water and Nitrogen Use Efficiencies

We report that more than a 60% increase in crop production is required by the 2050's to feed a growing world population. Understanding how plant functional traits and field management affect crop yields has the potential to improve agricultural productivity, minimize economic and environmental losses, and maximize food security. We explored the influence of winter wheat root characteristics and management on winter wheat growth, yield, and profit using a mechanistic and well-tested ecosystem and crop model, ecosys. We applied and further tested ecosys at an agricultural farm growing winter wheat in Ardmore, Oklahoma, United States. The model accurately predicted observed shoot carbon (R 2 = 0.95), soil moisture (R 2 = 0.67), soil temperature (R 2 = 0.91), and yield (percent error = 17%). Numerical optimization experiments were conducted to explore potential improvements of winter wheat yield and profit by modifying root characteristics, including root radius and root:shoot carbon transfer conductance, and fertilizer inputs. Our results show the potential for simultaneously improving winter wheat yields and profits. The optimum conditions were found to be in the range of root radius between 0.1 and 0.3 mm, carbon transfer conductance between 0.004 and 0.01 h -1 , and the currently applied fertilizer rate of 112 kg ha -1 . Under these conditions, improvements in yields and profits of up to approximately 25% and 110%, respectively, were modeled compared to those under baseline root traits. These improvements were achieved by impoverishing root structures, thereby increasing nutrient allocation to grains. Our results also demonstrate and motivate model structures that integrate the complex network of plant physiology, soil nutrient biogeochemistry, hydrology, and management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fast growing high-yield wheat and canola for efficient nutrient recycling systems

Wheat and canola are two major rotation crops in the U.S. each offering advantageous traits for the agricultural value chain. Canola, a dicot rotation crop, generally offers high seed oil content. Wheat, a monocot rotation crop, offers more cellulose and other nutritious carbohydrates. As rotation crops, traits such as rapid growth rates, increased harvest yields, and high quality (digestibility, deconstructability) are desirable for food, biorefinery, and also nutrient recycling for crop rotation. Improvement of such traits has been the goal of numerous biotechnology efforts. However, alternative biotechnology techniques are typically constitutive and when applied to commercial crops have resulted in net negative consequences. For example, efforts to improve quality by lowering lignin biosynthesis have resulted in plants with poor structural integrity and diminished mass at maturity. With supports by SBIR programs from DOE and USDA, JBEI/LBNL and AFINGEN previously demonstrated engineered healthy switchgrass and alfalfa which grew with 20-30% more fermentable sugar release, 25% less lignin, faster growth, and more biomass yields than control plants. In this CRADA project supported by NASA STTR program, AFINGEN again collaborated with JBEI/LBNL and transferred the simple tissue-targeting technology from the demonstrated switchgrass and alfalfa to the two major rotation crops wheat and canola for efficient nutrient recycling systems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

East Pacific ENSO Offers Early Predictive Signals for Harvest Yields

Abstract Annual wheat yields have steadily risen over the past century, but harvests remain highly variable and dependent on myriad weather conditions during a long growing season. In Kansas, for example, the 2014 crop year brought the lowest average yield in decades at 28 bushels per acre, while in 2016 farmers in the Wheat State, as Kansas is often called, enjoyed a historic high of 57 bushels per acre. It is broadly known that remote forces like El Niño–Southern Oscillation contribute to meteorological outcomes across North America, including in the wheat-growing regions of the U.S. Midwest, but the differential imprints of ENSO phases and flavors have not been well explored as leading indicators for harvest outcomes in highly specific agricultural regions, such as the more than 7 million acres upon which wheat is grown in Kansas. Here, we demonstrate a strong, steady, and long-term association between a simple “wheat yield index” and sea surface temperature anomalies, more than a year earlier, in the East Pacific, potentially offering insights into forthcoming harvest yields several seasons before planting commences.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Site-specific field management adaptation is key to feeding the world in the 21st century

Rapid climate change and growing population threaten global food security across the globe. Several studies have proposed early planting, increased irrigation, and increased fertilizer applications as climate adaptation strategies, yet none have considered combined and site-specific field management strategies as a comprehensive solution. Here, we analyzed non-irrigated wheat yield responses to climate change and field management adaptation using a mechanistic crop model evaluated against observed global non-irrigated wheat-yield over 3-year intervals spanning 13 years at 3749 sites (RMSE = 36 gC m -2 ). Early planting with later-maturing varieties provided the most benefit to future yields among the proposed field management adaptation strategies. Improved water use efficiency from increased CO 2 led to relatively low benefits of additional irrigation. Here we estimated that spatially heterogeneous adaption strategies had the potential to improve global wheat yields by 91% by 2100 compared to the present day. The yield improvements from combined field adaptation strategies were larger than the sum of improvements from the individual strategies. These synergistic benefits were shown to result from complementary processes regulating nutrient and water uptake, physiological tolerance to heat stress, and internal carbon and nutrient cycling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long-term integrated soil-crop management improves soil microbial community structure to reduce GHG emission and increase yield

Integrated soil-crop management (ISCM) has been shown as an effective strategy to increase efficiency and yield while its soil microbial community structure and function remain unclear. We evaluated changes in soil physicochemical factors, bacterial community structure responses, and the contributions of soil properties and bacterial communities to summer maize-winter wheat yield and GHG emissions through an ISCM experiment [T1 (local smallholder farmers practice system), T2 (improved management system), T3 (high–yield production system), and T4 (optimized management system)], which could provide scientific guidance for sustainable development of soil in summer maize-winter wheat rotation system. The results showed that the optimized ISCM could improve the soil quality, which significantly changed the soil bacterial community structure to reduce GHG emissions and increase yield. The co-occurrence network density of T3 was increased significantly. The Acidobacteria (class) and OM190 (class) were enriched in T2 and T4. The Frankiales (order) and Gaiellales (order) were enriched in T3. However, the changes in different crop growth stages were different. At the wheat jointing stage and maize mature stage, T4 could enhance carbon-related functional groups, such as aromatic hydrocarbon degradation and hydrocarbon degradation, to increase the soil organic carbon content. And at the maize tasseling stage, T4 could enhance nitrogen-related functional groups. And soil bacteria structure and function indirectly affected annual yield and GHG emission. T2 and T4 exhibited a similar soil microbial community. However, the yield and nitrogen use efficiency of T2 were reduced compared to those of T4. The yield of T3 was the highest, but the GHG emission increased and soil pH and nitrogen use efficiency decreased significantly. Therefore, T4 was a suitable management system to improve soil quality and soil bacterial community structure and function to decrease GHG emissions and increase the yield of the summer maize-winter wheat rotation system.

Yu, Ningning↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mycorrhizal effects on crop yield and soil ecosystem functions in a long‐term tillage and fertilization experiment

Summary It is well understood that agricultural management influences arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi, but there is controversy about whether farmers should manage for AM symbiosis. We assessed AM fungal communities colonizing wheat roots for three consecutive years in a long‐term (> 14 yr) tillage and fertilization experiment. Relationships among mycorrhizas, crop performance, and soil ecosystem functions were quantified. Tillage, fertilizers and continuous monoculture all reduced AM fungal richness and shifted community composition toward dominance of a few ruderal taxa. Rhizophagus and Dominikia were depressed by tillage and/or fertilization, and their abundances as well as AM fungal richness correlated positively with soil aggregate stability and nutrient cycling functions across all or no‐tilled samples. In the field, wheat yield was unrelated to AM fungal abundance and correlated negatively with AM fungal richness. In a complementary glasshouse study, wheat biomass was enhanced by soil inoculum from unfertilized, no‐till plots while neutral to depressed growth was observed in wheat inoculated with soils from fertilized and conventionally tilled plots. This study demonstrates contrasting impacts of low‐input and conventional agricultural practices on AM symbiosis and highlights the importance of considering both crop yield and soil ecosystem functions when managing mycorrhizas for more sustainable agroecosystems.

Peng, Zhenling↗
DOE OSTI2021

Empirical estimation of weather-driven yield shocks using biophysical characteristics for U.S. rainfed and irrigated maize, soybeans, and winter wheat

Agricultural yields are highly susceptible to changes in weather system patterns, including both annual and sub-annual changes in temperature and precipitation. Understanding the impacts of future changes in meteorological variables on crop yields have been widely studied in both empirical and process-based models. This work presents a structural econometric approach that combines historical weather data with information about the biophysical growth cycles of maize, winter wheat, and soy to predict the year-to-year yield responses for rainfed crops. Modeled soil moisture and temperature are taken as key predictors, which allows testing the fitted rainfed model’s ability to predict irrigated yields by assuming irrigation produces the numerically optimal level of soil moisture. This approach is grounded in known biophysical processes, which improves confidence in the model predictions. It produces estimates of interannual variability in yields, which enable study of the effects of extreme events on agricultural productivity. Finally, it enables prediction of the potential impacts of changing weather patterns on irrigated crops in areas that are currently primarily rainfed. We present the results of the empirical model, fitted with rainfed data; out-of-sample validation on irrigated crops; and projections of yield shocks under multiple future climate scenarios. Under a bias-corrected GFDL RCP8.5 scenario, this approach predicts average yield change, relative to 2006-2020 average yields, across U.S. counties in the 2040-2060 period of -16.9% and -13.4% for rainfed and irrigated maize, of -19.1% and -18.4% for rainfed and irrigated soy, and of -4.0% and -2.0% for rainfed and irrigated winter wheat. And in the 2070-2090 period of -30.3% and -28.8 % for rainfed and irrigated maize, of -33.1% and -32.8% for rainfed and irrigated soy, and of -6.5% and -5.2%for rainfed and irrigated winter wheat.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Algae Biofilm Produced from Anaerobic Digester Wastewater Demonstrated as Biofertilizer for Dwarf Wheat

Aims: To correlate yield of dwarf wheat fertilized with algae biofilm produced using anaerobic digester effluent (digestate) from a municipal water resource recovery facility as nutrient source and compare with yield using non-algae biofilm based fertilizers and a negative control. Study Design: Greenhouse testing for measurement of biomass yields and statistical analysis of wheat yield data results. Place and Duration of Study: Department of Biological Engineering Algae Processing and Products Facility greenhouse between March and June, 2024. Methodology: Yield of a dwarf cultivar of red spring wheat was measured as a function of four treatments including three fertilizers and a negative control: (1) algae biofilm cultivated on anaerobic digester effluent, (2) positive control of Osmocote commercial slow release fertilizer, (3) anaerobic digester biosolids, and (4) negative control with no fertilizer addition. Results: Average yield values (gm) for the four treatments were: (1) 1.25, (2) 0.99, (3) 0.72, and (4) 0.52, respectively. Algae biofilm fertilizer performed significantly better than Osmocote with P = .002, anaerobic digester biosolids with P = .05, and no fertilizer addition with P = .05. Struvite, a slow release fertilizer, was observed to be associated with the algae biofilm as a precipitate of the high concentrations of nutrients within the anaerobic digester water. Struvite (MgNH4PO46H2O) releases plant available nitrogen and phosphorus over time and is biologically precipitated due to the increase in solution pH as a result of photosynthesis by the algae biofilm. Conclusion: Algae biofilm cultivated on anaerobic digester wastewater can serve as a biofertilizer for recycling nutrients within the biosphere for sustainable nutrient management.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Subfield crop yields and temporal stability in thousands of US Midwest fields

Understanding subfield crop yields and temporal stability is critical to better manage crops. Several algorithms have proposed to study within-field temporal variability but they were mostly limited to few fields. In this study, a large dataset composed of 5520 yield maps from 768 fields provided by farmers was used to investigate the influence of subfield yield distribution skewness on temporal variability. The data are used to test two intuitive algorithms for mapping stability: one based on standard deviation and the second based on pixel ranking and percentiles. The analysis of yield monitor data indicates that yield distribution is asymmetric, and it tends to be negatively skewed (p < 0.05) for all of the four crops analyzed, meaning that low yielding areas are lower in frequency but cover a larger range of low values. The mean yield difference between the pixels classified as high-and-stable and the pixels classified as low-and-stable was 1.04 Mg ha –1 for maize, 0.39 Mg ha –1 for cotton, 0.34 Mg ha –1 for soybean, and 0.59 Mg ha —1 for wheat. The yield of the unstable zones was similar to the pixels classified as low-and-stable by the standard deviation algorithm, whereas the two-way outlier algorithm did not exhibit this bias. Furthermore, the increase in the number years of yield maps available induced a modest but significant increase in the certainty of stability classifications, and the proportion of unstable pixels increased with the precipitation heterogeneity between the years comprising the yield maps.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Adaptation to climate change through strategic integration of long fallow into cropping system in a dryland Mediterranean-type environment

The crop-growing region of Western Australia characterized by a Mediterranean-type climate is projected to become warmer and drier. Appropriate selection of crop sequences will be of importance to cope with these climatic changes for this largest grain-producing region of Australia. Through linking a widely used crop model (APSIM), 26 General Circulation Models (GCMs) with one Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP585) and economic analysis, we explored how the climate change would affect dryland wheat cropping and whether/how long fallow (the practice of leaving a field out of production for an entire growing season) could be integrated into wheat cropping system in Western Australia. The potential adaptation of long fallow into wheat system was assessed with four fixed rotations (fallow-wheat, fallow-wheat-wheat, fallow-wheat-wheat-wheat, and fallow-wheat-wheat-wheat-wheat) and four flexible sowing rule-based rotations (the land was fallowed if sowing rule was not met), compared with continuous wheat. The simulation results at four representing locations show that climate change would have negative impacts on both yield and economic return of continuous wheat cropping in Western Australia. Wheat after fallow out-yielded and out-profited wheat after wheat under future climate. But integrating fallow into wheat cropping systems with the above fixed rotations would lead to yield and economic loss. By contrast, cropping systems in which fallowing took place when sowing condition could not be met at a certain time would achieve comparable yield and economic return to continuous wheat, with wheat yield being only 5% less than continuous wheat and the gross margin being $12ha -1 more than continuous wheat averaged across locations. We highlight strategic integration of long fallow into cropping system in a dryland Mediterranean-type environment would have a great potential to cope with future climate change. These findings can be extended into other Mediterranean-type cropping regions in Australia and beyond.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Post-flowering Soil Waterlogging Curtails Grain Yield Formation by Restricting Assimilates Supplies to Developing Grains

Soil waterlogging is among the major factors limiting the grain yield of winter wheat crops in many parts of the world, including the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River China. In a field study, we investigated the relationship between leaf physiology and grain development under a varying duration of post-flowering waterlogging. A winter wheat cultivar Ningmai 13 was exposed to soil waterlogging for 0 (W0), 3 (W3), 6 (W6), and 9 d (W9) at anthesis. Increasing waterlogging duration significantly reduced flag leaf SPAD (soil plant analysis development) values and net photosynthetic rate (Pn). There was a linear reduction in flag leaf Pn and SPAD as plant growth progressed under all treatments; however, the speed of damage was greater in the waterlogged leaves. For example, compared with their respective control (W0), flag leaves of W9 treatment have experienced 46% more reduction in Pn at 21 d after anthesis (DAA) than at 7 DAA. Increasing waterlogging duration also induced oxidative damage in flag leaves, measured as malondialdehyde (MDA) contents. The capacity to overcome this oxidative damage was limited by the poor performance of antioxidant enzymes in wheat leaves. Inhibited leaf Pn and capacity to sustain assimilate synthesis under waterlogged environments reduced grain development. Compared with W0, W6 and W9 plants experienced a 20 and 22% reduction in thousand grain weight (TGW) in response to W6 and W9, respectively at 7 DAA and 11 and 19%, respectively at 28 DAA. Sustained waterlogging also significantly reduced grain number per spike and final grain yield. Averaged across two years of study, W9 plants produced 28% lesser final grain yield than W0 plants. Our study suggested that wheat crops are highly sensitive to soil waterlogging during reproductive and grain filling phases due to their poor capacity to recover from oxidative injury to photosynthesis. Management strategies such as planting time, fertilization and genotype selection should be considered for the areas experiencing frequent waterlogging problems.

Ma, Shangyu↗
DOE OSTI2021

Wheat respiratory O2 consumption falls with night warming alongside greater respiratory CO2 loss and reduced biomass

Abstract Warming nights are correlated with declining wheat growth and yield. As a key determinant of plant biomass, respiration consumes O2 as it produces ATP and releases CO2 and is typically reduced under warming to maintain metabolic efficiency. We compared the response of respiratory O2 and CO2 flux to multiple night and day warming treatments in wheat leaves and roots, using one commercial (Mace) and one breeding cultivar grown in controlled environments. We also examined the effect of night warming and a day heatwave on the capacity of the ATP-uncoupled alternative oxidase (AOX) pathway. Under warm nights, plant biomass fell, respiratory CO2 release measured at a common temperature was unchanged (indicating higher rates of CO2 release at prevailing growth temperature), respiratory O2 consumption at a common temperature declined, and AOX pathway capacity increased. The uncoupling of CO2 and O2 exchange and enhanced AOX pathway capacity suggest a reduction in plant energy demand under warm nights (lower O2 consumption), alongside higher rates of CO2 release under prevailing growth temperature (due to a lack of down-regulation of respiratory CO2 release). Less efficient ATP synthesis, teamed with sustained CO2 flux, could thus be driving observed biomass declines under warm nights.

Posch, Bradley C. (ORCID:0000000309246608)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Recognition of glycoside hydrolase 12 proteins by the immune receptor RXEG1 confers Fusarium head blight resistance in wheat

Summary Fusarium head blight (FHB), caused by Fusarium graminearum , is a devastating disease in wheat ( Triticum aestivum ) that results in substantial yield losses and mycotoxin contamination. Reliable genetic resources for FHB resistance in wheat are lacking. In this study, we characterized glycoside hydrolase 12 (GH12) family proteins secreted by F. graminearum . We established that two GH12 proteins, Fg05851 and Fg11037, have functionally redundant roles in F. graminearum colonization of wheat. Furthermore, we determined that the GH12 proteins Fg05851 and Fg11037 are recognized by the leucine‐rich‐repeat receptor‐like protein RXEG1 in the dicot Nicotiana benthamiana . Heterologous expression of RXEG1 conferred wheat responsiveness to Fg05851 and Fg11037, enhanced wheat resistance to F. graminearum and reduced levels of the mycotoxin deoxynivalenol in wheat grains in an Fg05851/Fg11037‐dependent manner. In the RXEG1 transgenic lines, genes related to pattern‐triggered plant immunity, salicylic acid, jasmonic acid, and anti‐oxidative homeostasis signalling pathways were upregulated during F. graminearum infection. However, the expression of these genes was not significantly changed during infection by the deletion mutant ΔFg05851/Fg11037 , suggesting that the recognition of Fg05851/Fg11037 by RXEG1 triggered plant resistance against FHB. Moreover, introducing RXEG1 into three other different wheat cultivars via crossing also conferred resistance to F. graminearum . Expression of RXEG1 did not have obvious deleterious effects on plant growth and development in wheat. Our study reveals that N. benthamiana RXEG1 remains effective when transferred into wheat, a monocot, which in turn suggests that engineering wheat with interfamily plant immune receptor transgenes is a viable strategy for increasing resistance to FHB.

Wang, Zongkuan↗
DOE OSTI2026

Phase-Selective Fractionation of Lignocellulosic Biomass Using a Lignin-Based Hydrophobic Deep Eutectic Solvent Biphasic System

Lignocellulose fractionation is a critical step in biomass valorization. Herein, we report a hydrophobic deep eutectic solvent (HDES)-mediated biphasic fractionation strategy that enables the simultaneous and selective separation of cellulose, hemicellulose, and lignin in a single process. Lignin-derived HDESs composed of thymol and 2,6-dimethoxyphenol (syringol) were combined with an acidic aqueous phase to create a water-HDES biphasic system, in which lignin was preferentially extracted into the HDES phase, hemicellulose-derived sugars were selectively solubilized in the aqueous phase, and cellulose was retained in the solid residue. Using wheat straw and poplar wood as representative herbaceous and woody biomass feedstocks, the HDES-acid system exhibited strong synergistic effects, achieving delignification up to 69.8% and xylan removal up to 93.6%. Structural characterization confirmed effective disruption of the lignocellulosic matrix and increased cellulose accessibility, resulting in markedly enhanced enzymatic saccharification, with glucose yields up to 96.2% for wheat straw. This work demonstrates a sustainable and efficient HDES-based biphasic fractionation platform that enables phase-selective separation of major lignocellulosic components and provides a foundation for further development of closed-loop biorefinery processes.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Double bonus: surfactant-assisted biomass pelleting benefits both the pelleting process and subsequent enzymatic saccharification of the pretreated pellets

Pelleting overcomes the utilization limitation of lignocellulosic biomass due to its low density and related processing costs. Efficiently combining biomass pelleting and enzymatic saccharification is a challenge for applying biomass with low density in a biorefinery. In this study, we propose a novel biomass processing approach involving the addition of surfactant during pelleting and using the pellets for pretreatment and enzymatic saccharification. Here, we investigated the effects of polyethylene glycol (PEG) 6000 assisted pelleting on pelleting specific energy consumption and friction, and on subsequent pretreatment as well as on enzymatic saccharification of the pretreated pellets. The results showed that PEG 6000 assisted pelleting decreased the total pelleting specific energy consumption by about 14% for wheat straw and 18% for pine, and reduced the maximum friction during ejection of pellets by about 34% for wheat straw and 29% for pine. PEG 6000 assisted pelleting enhanced subsequent enzymatic sugar yield effectively for both acid and alkaline pretreated wheat straw and pine, especially for acid-treated pine pellets, where a 256% increase in glucose yield was obtained. The results suggest that PEG 6000 decreases the cleavage of β-O-4' linkages during pretreatment and thus hinders the formation of phenolic hydroxyl groups, contributing to the enhanced sugar yield in enzymatic saccharification. As surfactants were found to have beneficial effects on both biomass pelleting and the sugar yield obtained from the enzymatic saccharification of the pretreated pellets, it would be advantageous to add surfactants during pelletizing when the pellets are intended for application in a biorefinery.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗