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Results for “white-box modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Cloud-based implementation of white-box model predictive control for a GEOTABS office building: A field test demonstration

Model predictive control (MPC) has been proven in simulations and pilot case studies to be a superior control strategy for large buildings. MPC can utilize the weather and occupancy schedule forecasts, together with the system model, to predict the future thermal behavior of the building and minimize the overall energy use and maximize thermal comfort. However, these advantages come with the cost of increased modeling effort, computational demands, communication infrastructure, and commissioning efforts. Thus a typical approach is to, often rapidly, simplify the building modeling and MPC optimization problem while paying a price of not reaching the full performance potential. It has been shown that by employing accurate physics-based models, MPC performance can be notably increased closer to its theoretical performance bound. However, implementation of such high-fidelity MPC in real buildings remains a challenge, resulting in a lack of successful field test studies. This work presents the methodology and field test demonstration of a computationally efficient implementation of the white-box MPC in an office building in Belgium. The detailed model of the building is based on first-principle physical equations. The deployment and supervision of MPC operation in a practical setting are supported by an automated cloud-based communication infrastructure. The motivating factor behind the cloud-based architecture is its compatibility with a commercially appealing control as a service concept. The building is equipped with a ground source heat pump (GSHP) and thermally activated building structures (TABS), where the combination of both is also known as GEOTABS. From a control perspective, GEOTABS buildings are particularly challenging systems due to large scale, complex heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) system, and slow dynamics with time delays. On the other hand, there is an increased potential for energy savings due to the high thermal mass, which acts as thermal storage. The MPC operation is demonstrated during the challenging transient seasons (switching between heating and cooling), and its performance is compared to a traditional rule-based controller (RBC). We provide a proof of concept of real MPC operation for the most difficult seasons with notable GSHP energy use savings equal to 53.5% and thermal comfort improvement by 36.9%. Other MPC applications found in the literature describe tests for only cooling or only heating, and up to now only for a black-box or a grey-box approach.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Grey-box modeling and application for building energy simulations - A critical review

Grey-box modeling, as one of the three fundamental modeling techniques for building energy models, has many advantages compared with black-box modeling and white-box modeling. Additionally, it has been widely applied to solve problems of building technologies, such as building load estimation, control and optimization, and building-grid integration. However, a thorough review of grey-box modeling is not available. This review study systematically investigated various aspects of grey-box modeling for buildings. First, the fundamental aspects of grey-box modeling are presented, including the theoretical background, modeling of building elements, modeling order, modeling diagram, and order reduction. Second, the detailed modeling approaches are discussed. Third, multiple applications of grey-box modeling are investigated for building energy domain, which are categorized into the following groups: heat dynamics analysis, thermal load estimation, building control and optimization, district/urban scale energy modeling, and building-grid integration. Finally, the available software packages for grey-box modeling are compared. Overall, the challenges of using grey-box modeling can be summarized as follows: (1) the theoretical limitations and assumptions of grey-box modeling are unclear; (2) grey-box model naming convention and structure are confusing; (3) grey-box model creation is vague; (4) suitable applications of grey-box models are unknown; and (5) grey-box models lack unified software solutions for wider adoption.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Gray-Box Modeling for Distribution Systems With Inverter-Based Resources: Integrating Physics-Based and Data-Driven Approaches

Here, in this paper, we develop a novel gray-box modeling approach for distribution systems with inverter-based resources (IBRs). The proposed gray-box modeling method aims to improve estimation accuracy by taking advantages of both physics-based (white-box) and data-driven (black-box) modeling approaches. To this end, we utilize partial physical knowledge of the system, including the inverters’ structures and control diagrams, as well as the equivalent network model simplified through Kron reduction. The white-box model containing unknown parameters is then constructed with mathematical equations and an optimization-based method is subsequently employed to identify these unknown parameters within the white-box model. Next, the graybox modeling framework is then constructed by embedding the output variables of the white-box model into the input vector of a black-box model (represented using a neural network). Finally, the black-box section is trained using the collected input-output datasets and the gray-box model is then obtained. Furthermore, case studies demonstrate that our gray-box modeling approach effectively improves estimation accuracy compared to purely physics-based or data-driven methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Gray-Box Modeling for Distribution Systems with Inverter-Based Resources

In this paper, we develop a novel gray-box modeling approach for distribution systems with inverter-based resources (IBRs). The proposed gray-box modeling method aims to improve estimation accuracy by taking advantages of both physics-based (white-box) and data-driven (black-box) modeling approaches. To this end, the gray-box modeling framework is constructed by encoding prior physical knowledge of the system into a whitebox model and then embedding the output variables of the white-box model into the input vector of a black-box model. Especially, the white-box modeling component is constructed alongside the equivalent network model simplified with Kron reduction. Furthermore, case studies demonstrate that our graybox modeling approach effectively improves estimation accuracy compared to purely physics-based or data-driven methods.

Zhang, Junhui↗
DOE OSTI2024

Automatic Loss Factor Modeling and Attribution on Unlabeled PV Energy Data

We present a novel approach for modeling the loss factors of photovoltaic power generation systems (PV systems). This method is a white-box machine learning model built on convex optimization that is fast, interpretable, and auditable. It takes as an input the measured daily energy produced by the system, over a multi-year period, and returns a multiplicative decomposition model of the daily energy signal and full attribution of the total energy loss to each feature. The methods section of this paper has two major components: (1) the description of the signal decomposition (SD) model, expressed in the SD framework, and (2) the attribution of total energy losses via Shapley values. We validate the method on synthetic and open-source data sets and compare to similar methods from the literature.

artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2021

System risk quantification and decision making support using functional modeling and dynamic Bayesian network

Risk-informed decision-making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success of control action, given the system status. This paper presents a systematic state transition modeling approach integrating dynamic probabilistic risk assessment with a decision-making process using a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) coupled with functional modeling. A functional model designed with multilevel flow modeling (MFM) technique was used to build a system state structure inferred by energy, mass, and information flow so that one can verify the developed model with respect to system functionality. The MFM model represents the causal relationship among the nodes, which captures the structure of process parameters and control units. Each node may have multiple possible states, and the DBN structured by the MFM model represents the time-domain transitions among the defined states. Furthermore, the MFM-DBN integrated state transition modeling is a white-box approach that allows one to draw the system's risk profile by updating the system states and supports the decisions probabilistically with physical inference. An example of a simple heating system has been used to illustrate this process, including decision-making support based on quantitative risk profile. For demonstrating its applicability to a complex system operational decision making, a case study of station blackout accident scenario leading to the seal loss of coolant accident in a nuclear power plant is presented. The proposed approach effectively provided the risk profile along time for each option so that the operators can make the best decision, which minimizes the plant risk.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust Power System Stability Assessment Against Adversarial Machine Learning-Based Cyberattacks via Online Purification

The increasing complexity associated with renewable generation brings more challenges to power system stability assessment (SA). Data-driven approaches based on machine learning (ML) techniques for stability assessment have received significant research interest and shown their promising performance. However, ML-based models are recognized to be vulnerable to adversarial disturbances, where a slight perturbation to power system measurements could lead to unacceptable errors. To address this issue, this paper develops a novel lightweight mitigation strategy, i.e., robust online stability assessment (ROSA), to enhance the ML-based assessment model against both white-box and the black-box adversarial disturbances (i.e., purification) in the online implementation. The ROSA involves a supervised learning-based module for the primary stability assessment and a self-supervised learning-based module. Further, the two modules are trained jointly with different objective (loss) functions and implemented in sequence. A suitable purification objective and various time-series data augmentation methods are designed for SA applications to tackle adversarial disturbances adaptively. Case studies are performed, and the comparative results have clearly illustrated the competitive, robust accuracy against various adversarial scenarios and verified the effectiveness of the proposed online purification strategy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Black-box Adversarial Attacks on Low-rank Constrained Neural Networks

Low-rank compression has been shown as an effective tool to reduce parameter counts of convolutional and vision transformer architectures; however, low-rank training often reduces model robustness to adversarial perturbations. In this work, we explore the effects of low-rank training on black-box attacks, where attacked images are generated without knowledge of the low-rank parameters. We find that low-rank training is not sufficient as a black-box defense and can sometimes produce worse than expected as compared to baseline models. Influencing the spectrum of the low-rank models during training, which is known to increase model robustness against white-box attacks, improves black-box performance as well.

Schnake, Stefan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000215183538)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Co-Simulation of Electric Power Distribution Systems and Buildings including Ultra-Fast HVAC Models and Optimal DER Control

Smart homes and virtual power plant (VPP) controls are growing fields of research with potential for improved electric power grid operation. A novel testbed for the co-simulation of electric power distribution systems and distributed energy resources (DERs) is employed to evaluate VPP scenarios and propose an optimization procedure. DERs of specific interest include behind-the-meter (BTM) solar photovoltaic (PV) systems as well as heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems. The simulation of HVAC systems is enabled by a machine learning procedure that produces ultra-fast models for electric power and indoor temperature of associated buildings that are up to 133 times faster than typical white-box implementations. Hundreds of these models, each with different properties, are randomly populated into a modified IEEE 123-bus test system to represent a typical U.S. community. Advanced VPP controls are developed based on the Consumer Technology Association (CTA) 2045 standard to leverage HVAC systems as generalized energy storage (GES) such that BTM solar PV is better utilized locally and occurrences of distribution system power peaks are reduced, while also maintaining occupant thermal comfort. An optimization is performed to determine the best control settings for targeted peak power and total daily energy increase minimization with example peak load reductions of 25+%.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

MTRE

Multi-Token Reliability Estimation (MTRE) is a lightweight, white-box hallucination detector for vision-language models. Instead of using only the first output token, MTRE aggregates logits from the first ~10 tokens and feeds them to a small attention-based reliability head; per-token scores are combined via a sequential log-likelihood-ratio test with early-stopping, and an MTRE-t variant calibrates thresholds via cross-fitting. MTRE reports average gains of +9.4% Accuracy and +14.8% AUROC over common baselines across MAD-Bench, MM-SafetyBench, MathVista, and arithmetic/counting tasks, while adding ~4.3M params and ~1% inference overhead (~26 MB VRAM, ~0.94 ms per detection). Key limitation: requires access to early token logits and is evaluated on a handful of open-source 7B VLMs.

Bhattarai, Manish [Los Alamos National Labs]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Time Dilated Bundt Cake Analysis of PV Output [Poster]

We present a novel method for modeling time-dependent statistics in the power signal generated by a photovoltaic (PV) system. Our white-box machine learning method is interpretable and auditable, based on principles of multiperiodic basis functions and convex optimization. Our proposed method of time dilating the daily signal to remove night time values results in a novel representation of PV power signals, evocative of a ‘Bundt cake’. The proposed model describes the marginal distribution of power output as a function of date and time. The resulting probabilistic model of a PV system can be used to perform a variety of tasks, and here, we demonstrate the application of clear sky detection.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development, calibration, and validation of a novel gray-box energy model for residential split air conditioners

Energy models for vapor compression refrigeration in residential air conditioners have been developed through white-box, gray-box, and black-box methods in decades. However, existing white-box and gray-box models require complicated equations with detailed geometries while black-box models require substantial experimental data. Further, this paper aims to develop and validate a simple gray-box steady-state energy model without the need for detailed geometries, which can accurately predict the cooling capacity and electrical power input based on outdoor and indoor air conditions, and supply airflow rates. First three state variables, including the evaporation and condensation temperatures, and refrigerant mass flowrate, are applied to develop the energy model and are solved by three physical equations, including the energy conservations at the evaporator and condenser, and the refrigerant volume-mass flow correlation of the compressor. Secondly, seven performance property functions related to three state variables and three physical equations are identified and calibrated by simple temperature and power measurements. Finally, field experiments are conducted on a residential air conditioner to calibrate these performance property functions and validate the developed model. The validated results reveal the model can accurately predict the cooling capacity and electrical power input, with the normalized root mean square errors of 2.3% and 0.87% respectively.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

On the vulnerability of data-driven structural health monitoring models to adversarial attack

Many approaches at the forefront of structural health monitoring rely on cutting-edge techniques from the field of machine learning. Recently, much interest has been directed towards the study of so-called adversarial examples; deliberate input perturbations that deceive machine learning models while remaining semantically identical. This article demonstrates that data-driven approaches to structural health monitoring are vulnerable to attacks of this kind. In the perfect information or ‘white-box’ scenario, a transformation is found that maps every example in the Los Alamos National Laboratory three-storey structure dataset to an adversarial example. Also presented is an adversarial threat model specific to structural health monitoring. The threat model is proposed with a view to motivate discussion into ways in which structural health monitoring approaches might be made more robust to the threat of adversarial attack.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Traceable Black-Box Watermarks For Federated Learning

Due to the distributed nature of Federated Learning (FL) systems, each local client has access to the global model, which poses a critical risk of model leakage. Existing works have explored injecting watermarks into local models to enable intellectual property protection. However, these methods either focus on non-traceable watermarks or traceable but white-box watermarks. We identify a gap in the literature regarding the formal definition of traceable black-box watermarking and the formulation of the problem of injecting such watermarks into FL systems. In this work, we first formalize the problem of injecting traceable black-box watermarks into FL. Based on the problem, we propose a novel server-side watermarking method, TraMark, which creates a traceable watermarked model for each client, enabling verification of model leakage in black-box settings. To achieve this, TraMark partitions the model parameter space into two distinct regions: the main task region and the watermarking region. Subsequently, a personalized global model is constructed for each client by aggregating only the main task region while preserving the watermarking region. Each model then learns a unique watermark exclusively within the watermarking region using a distinct watermark dataset before being sent back to the local client. Extensive results across various FL systems demonstrate that TraMark ensures the traceability of all watermarked models while preserving their main task performance.

Xu, Jiahao [University of Nevada, Reno]↗
DOE OSTI2020

Developing a common approach for classifying building stock energy models

Buildings contribute 40% of global greenhouse gas emissions; therefore, strategies that can substantially reduce emissions from the building stock are key components of broader efforts to mitigate climate change and achieve sustainable development goals. Models that represent the energy use of the building stock at scale under various scenarios of technology deployment have become essential tools for the development and assessment of such strategies. Within the past decade, the capabilities of building stock energy models have improved considerably, while model transferability and sharing has increased. Given these advancements, a new scheme for classifying building stock energy models is needed to facilitate communication of modeling approaches and the handling of important model dimensions. In this article, we present a new building stock energy model classification framework that leverages international modeling expertise from the participants of the International Energy Agency's Annex 70 on Building Energy Epidemiology. Drawing from existing classification studies, here we propose a multi-layer quadrant scheme that classifies modeling techniques by their design (top-down or bottom-up) and degree of transparency (black-box or white-box); hybrid techniques are also addressed. The quadrant scheme is unique from previous classification approaches in its non-hierarchical organization, coverage of and ability to incorporate emerging modeling techniques, and treatment of additional modeling dimensions. The new classification framework will be complemented by a reporting protocol and online registry of existing models as part of ongoing work in Annex 70 to increase the interpretability and utility of building stock energy models for energy policy making.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning and algebraic approaches towards complete matter spectra in 4d F-theory

Motivated by engineering vector-like (Higgs) pairs in the spectrum of 4d F-theory compactifications, we combine machine learning and algebraic geometry techniques to analyze line bundle cohomologies on families of holomorphic curves. To quantify jumps of these cohomologies, we first generate 1.8 million pairs of line bundles and curves embedded in dP 3 , for which we compute the cohomologies. A white-box machine learning approach trained on this data provides intuition for jumps due to curve splittings, which we use to construct additional vector-like Higgs-pairs in an F-Theory toy model. We also find that, in order to explain quantitatively the full dataset, further tools from algebraic geometry, in particular Brill-Noether theory, are required. Using these ingredients, we introduce a diagrammatic way to express cohomology jumps across the parameter space of each family of matter curves, which reflects a stratification of the F-theory complex structure moduli space in terms of the vector-like spectrum. Furthermore, these insights provide an algorithmically efficient way to estimate the possible cohomology dimensions across the entire parameter space.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗