Beling, Peter A. | Search NASA

NASA NTRS2005

Solution Concepts for Distributed Decision-Making without Coordination

Consider a single-stage problem in which we have a group N agents who are attempting to minimize the expected cost of their joint actions, without the benefit of communication or a pre-established protocol but with complete knowledge of the expected cost of any joint set of actions for the group. We call this situation a static coordination problem. The central issue in defining an appropriate solution concept for static coordination problems is considering how to deal with the fact that if the agents axe faced with a set of multiple (mixed) strategies that are equally attractive in terms of cost, a failure of coordination may lead to an expected cost value that is worse than that of any of the strategies in the set. In this proposal, we describe the notion of a general coordination problem, describe initial efforts at developing a solution concept for static coordination problems, and then outline a research agenda that centers on activities that will be basis for obtaining a complete understanding of solutions to static coordination problems.

Beling, Peter A.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Space Shuttle RTOS Bayesian Network

With shrinking budgets and the requirements to increase reliability and operational life of the existing orbiter fleet, NASA has proposed various upgrades for the Space Shuttle that are consistent with national space policy. The cockpit avionics upgrade (CAU), a high priority item, has been selected as the next major upgrade. The primary functions of cockpit avionics include flight control, guidance and navigation, communication, and orbiter landing support. Secondary functions include the provision of operational services for non-avionics systems such as data handling for the payloads and caution and warning alerts to the crew. Recently, a process to selection the optimal commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) real-time operating system (RTOS) for the CAU was conducted by United Space Alliance (USA) Corporation, which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for space shuttle operations. In order to independently assess the RTOS selection, NASA has used the Bayesian network-based scoring methodology described in this paper. Our two-stage methodology addresses the issue of RTOS acceptability by incorporating functional, performance and non-functional software measures related to reliability, interoperability, certifiability, efficiency, correctness, business, legal, product history, cost and life cycle. The first stage of the methodology involves obtaining scores for the various measures using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network incorporates the causal relationships between the various and often competing measures of interest while also assisting the inherently complex decision analysis process with its ability to reason under uncertainty. The structure and selection of prior probabilities for the network is extracted from experts in the field of real-time operating systems. Scores for the various measures are computed using Bayesian probability. In the second stage, multi-criteria trade-off analyses are performed between the scores. Using a prioritization of measures from the decision-maker, trade-offs between the scores are used to rank order the available set of RTOS candidates.

Morris, A. Terry↗