Engineering topics

Coles, Garill A

Publications and source records attributed to Coles, Garill A.

6 records

DOE OSTI2016

Trial Implementation of the High-Impact, Low-Frequency Power Grid Event Risk Framework to Support Informed Decision-Making

In 2015, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) developed a multi-hazard risk-assessment framework for modeling high-impact, low-frequency (HILF) power grid events to support risk-informed decisions for power grid management and emergency planning. The identified framework elements are based on a systematic and comprehensive characterization of hazards to the level of detail required for modeling risk. In 2016, PNNL performed a trial implementation of the framework for a single hazard category and a set of key power grid asset types as a way to test the framework. A specific realization of a HILF event is referred to as an initiating event, or initiator. An initiating event is the manifestation of a hazard, and can be, for example, an earthquake of specified magnitude at a specified epicenter. Other examples of HILF events include geomagnetic disturbances and pandemics. For this test implementation, grid assets of a benchmark power system transmission network were assigned proxy geographical coordinates associated with Washington State locations; and real-world seismic hazard information was used for those locations. Based on the fragility of the grid assets to events of different severities, the set of possible failure scenarios (i.e., combinations of different asset failures) and their associated probabilities were determined, and recovery of grid assets and restoration of the network were considered. These combinations of failures and their subsequent recovery constitute a HILF event sequence that results in a given level of consequence, such as loss of power over a given geographic area for a given duration. The concurrent quantitative consideration of event probabilities and event consequences characterizes a risk model. For HILF event sequences, risk was expressed as expected unserved energy per year. This implementation demonstrates the feasibility and value of using the HILF event risk framework despite some of the identified challenges. This report discusses this trial implementation and presents risk results and insights from the implementation.

Veeramany, Arun↗

DOE OSTI2012

A Qualitative Assessment of Diversion Scenarios for an Example Sodium Fast Reactor Using the GEN IV PR&PP Methodology

FAST REACTORS;NUCLEAR ENERGY;NUCLEAR MATERIALS MANAGEMENT;PROLIFERATION;SAFEGUARDS;THEFT; A working group was created in 2002 by the Generation IV International Forum (GIF) for the purpose of developing an internationally accepted methodology for assessing the Proliferation Resistance of a nuclear energy system (NES) and its individual elements. A two year case study is being performed by the experts group using this methodology to assess the proliferation resistance of a hypothetical NES called the Example Sodium Fast Reactor (ESFR). This work demonstrates how the PR and PP methodology can be used to provide important information at various levels of details to NES designers, safeguard administrators and decision makers. The study analyzes the response of the complete ESFR nuclear energy system to different proliferation and theft strategies. The challenges considered include concealed diversion, concealed misuse and 'break out' strategies. This paper describes the work done in performing a qualitative assessment of concealed diversion scenarios from the ESFR.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2012

Integration of facility modeling capabilities for nuclear nonproliferation analysis

Developing automated methods for data collection and analysis that can facilitate nuclear nonproliferation assessment is an important research area with significant consequences for the effective global deployment of nuclear energy. Facility modeling that can integrate and interpret observations collected from monitored facilities in order to ascertain their functional details will be a critical element of these methods. Although improvements are continually sought, existing facility modeling tools can characterize all aspects of reactor operations and the majority of nuclear fuel cycle processing steps, and include algorithms for data processing and interpretation. Assessing nonproliferation status is challenging because observations can come from many sources, including local and remote sensors that monitor facility operations, as well as open sources that provide specific business information about the monitored facilities, and can be of many different types. Although many current facility models are capable of analyzing large amounts of information, they have not been integrated in an analyst-friendly manner. This paper addresses some of these facility modeling capabilities and illustrates how they could be integrated and utilized for nonproliferation analysis. The inverse problem of inferring facility conditions based on collected observations is described, along with a proposed architecture and computer framework for utilizing facility modeling tools. After considering a representative sampling of key facility modeling capabilities, the proposed integration framework is illustrated with several examples.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2011

Defining resilience within a risk-informed assessment framework

The concept of resilience is the subject of considerable discussion in academic, business, and governmental circles. The United States Department of Homeland Security for one has emphasised the need to consider resilience in safeguarding critical infrastructure and key resources. The concept of resilience is complex, multidimensional, and defined differently by different stakeholders. The authors contend that there is a benefit in moving from discussing resilience as an abstraction to defining resilience as a measurable characteristic of a system. This paper proposes defining resilience measures using elements of a traditional risk assessment framework to help clarify the concept of resilience and as a way to provide non-traditional risk information. The authors show various, diverse dimensions of resilience can be quantitatively defined in a common risk assessment framework based on the concept of loss of service. This allows the comparison of options for improving the resilience of infrastructure and presents a means to perform cost-benefit analysis. This paper discusses definitions and key aspects of resilience, presents equations for the risk of loss of infrastructure function that incorporate four key aspects of resilience that could prevent or mitigate that loss, describes proposed resilience factor definitions based on those risk impacts, and provides an example that illustrates how resilience factors would be calculated using a hypothetical scenario.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2011

SOCIAL MODELING IN ASSESSEMENT OF A STATE’S PROPENSITY FOR NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION

This paper presents approach for assessing a State’s propensity for nuclear weapons proliferation using social modeling. We supported this modeling by first reviewing primarily literature by social scientists on factors related to the propensity of a State to proliferation and by leveraging existing relevant data compiled by social scientists. We performed a number of validation tests on our model including one that incorporates use of benchmark data defining the proliferation status of countries in the years between 1945 and 2000. We exercise the BN model against a number of country cases representing different perceived levels of proliferation risk. We also describe how the BN model could be further refined to be a proliferation assessment tool for decision making.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2011

Challenges in Implementing Methodologies for Nonproliferation Assessments

A handful of models for explaining and predicting States’ development of nuclear weapons programs have been proposed since the 1970s. Despite the array of techno-social variables and computational concepts employed in these models, no model has yet been established as an agreed-upon standard. Likewise, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)—one of the main institutions evaluating social, political, and technological information for assessments of States’ current nuclear capabilities—uses only a qualitative framework by which to evaluate such information to assess the correctness and completeness of a State’s declaration. In this paper, analysts familiar with both the development of techno-social modelling and the IAEA’s implementation of a safeguards system that is information driven discuss the challenges faced in the development, implementation, and evaluation of models and methodologies for nonproliferation assessments, based on experiences at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the IAEA.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗