Engineering topics
Publications and source records attributed to Denholm, Paul (ORCID:0000000171284643).
This presentation summarizes the challenge of decarbonizing the last 10%" of the power system and discusses six strategies for addressing that challenge. This presentation was given at the IRA, BIL, and the Future of Energy: A Summit to Support State Implementation" workshop in Washington, D.C., in April 2024.
LA100 Equity Strategies is a collaborative effort between LADWP, NREL, UCLA, and Kearns & West that employs an interdisciplinary approach utilizing distinct - but connected - research efforts informed and guided by the project Steering Committee, which met monthly through the duration of the project. Chapters 1 through 4 address recognition and procedural justice through recognition, process, and community strategies, while Chapters 5 through 12 address distributional justice through program and infrastructure strategies. Chapters 13 through 17 provide policy and program strategies. Each chapter provides data, methods, tools, insights, and strategies to help LADWP make data-driven, community-informed decisions for equitable investments and program development.
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In this work, we investigated the peaking potential for storage with durations of 4 h up to durations of 168 h (1 week). The peaking potential for a given storage duration is the amount of storage that can be added to a power system before that storage can no longer serve the peak net demand period at full rated capacity. We found that for the United States, 168 h of storage would be sufficient to serve about 27 % of peak demand, or about 215 GW in the current system. However, more than one-half of this amount could be served by storage with 12 h or less of capacity. As deployment of wind and solar grows, the peaking potential increases significantly, and under decarbonization scenarios, approximately one-half of the peak demand could be served by storage of up to 168 h; but again, the majority of this storage could be with durations of up to 12 h. The potential is also driven by the mix of wind and solar, and by storage efficiency, with the deployment of solar having the largest impact for both storage peaking potential and the mix of durations.
The 100% Clean Electricity by 2035 Study evaluates a variety of scenarios that achieve a 100% clean electricity system (defined as zero net greenhouse gas emissions) in 2035 that could put the United States on a path to economywide net-zero emissions by 2050. The scenarios focus primarily on the supply of clean electricity, including technical requirements, challenges, and benefit and cost implications. The study results highlight multiple pathways to 100% clean electricity in which benefits exceed costs. The study does not comprehensively evaluate all options to achieve 100% clean electricity, and it focuses largely on supply-side options. This summary deck provides a high-level overview of the key findings.
We explore the ability of a concentrating solar power (CSP) plant with thermal energy storage (TES) to provide peaking capacity. We focus on future power systems, wherein net load patterns may be significantly different than they are today (e.g., due to higher renewable-energy penetrations). We examine 28 locations in the southwestern United States over an 18-year period. The hourly operation of the CSP plants are simulated to determine their potential to provide energy during an eight-hour peak-load window for each day up to 365 days per year. Our result shows that for the large majority of locations and years, CSP plants with certain configurations (i.e., in terms of solar field and TES sizes) can provide nearly 100% peak-load capacity. We examine also the amount of supplemental energy (e.g.,by using natural gas as a supplemental thermal-energy source) that would be required to ensure that a CSP plant could serve the eight highest-load hours of every day of the year. We find that in most cases, a CSP plant supplemented with natural gas would require less than 5% of the fuel that is used by a natural-gas fired power plant providing the same level of reliable capacity. A series of sensitivity analyses show that these results are robust to the number of peak-load hours and days that are considered and the configuration of the CSP plant.
The United States has pledged to develop a 100% carbon-free electric power system by 2035 and a net-zero-emissions economy by 2050. While important advancements have been made in the scale, performance, and economics of clean energy technologies, meeting the nation's ambitious goals will not only require their deployment at scale, but also additional innovation and effective integration of different solutions. Technological developments across the broad suite of low-carbon energy solutions are advancing rapidly, with ongoing innovations in renewable electricity generation, industrial processes, and energy-saving technologies and services, including LED lighting, induction heating, electric vehicles, energy storage solutions, and mobility as a service, plus smart devices, controls, and more efficient and smart buildings. Combining renewable electricity with biotic and abiotic pathways to produce chemicals, fuels, and materials promises to deliver new solutions. Grid-interactive buildings and communities, integrating transportation infrastructure and vehicles, are likely to be significant components of any zero-carbon energy strategy. Low-carbon industrial manufacturing will also make strong contributions to a net-zero economy. While the technical prospects appear promising, variations in the state of infrastructure, jurisdictional and social equity, pollution, economic and socio-cultural constraints, energy resource availability, and supply chain dynamics found in different locations present a range of challenges and demand customized solutions. This paper provides a critical review and offers new insights into the technical, infrastructure, analytic, political, and economic challenges faced in translating the nation's ambitious net-zero-emissions goals into feasible and reliable implementation action plans.
The Storage Futures Study (SFS) is a multiyear research project that explored the role and impact of energy storage in the evolution and operation of the U.S. power sector. The SFS examined the potential impact of energy storage technology advancement on the deployment of utility-scale storage and the adoption of distributed storage, and the implications for future power system infrastructure investment and operations. The research findings and supporting data were published across a series of six reports, culminating in the final, seventh publication that draws upon findings from across the study, previous work, and additional analysis to identify eight key learnings about the coming decades. This presentation is from an NREL webinar to discuss the eight key learnings.
This talk to the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC) focuses on "Aligning Electric Vehicle Customer Charging with Grid Needs" to highlight the opportunities associated with managed electric vehicle charging and its value for consumers and the power system. Electric vehicles (EVs) are experiencing a rapid rise in popularity and adoption, and growing EV adoption offers an opportunity to increase electricity demand. With expected widespread EV adoption, supporting charging will require investments in generation, transmission, and distribution systems. Uncoordinated charging of EVs will lead to increased system peak load, possibly exceeding the maximum power that can be supported by distribution systems and generally increasing power system stress. However, vehicles are underutilized assets parked ~96% of the time: managed EV charging can satisfy mobility needs while also supporting the grid. EVs are not a burden for the grid, but a resource: The demand-side flexibility provided by managed EV charging offers significant potential benefits for the grid over multiple timescales and applications., especially for high-renewable systems. Managed charging can support power system planning and operations during normal and extreme conditions, benefitting EV owners and other electricity consumers. Managed charging is shown to consistently provide hundreds of dollars in cost savings per EV each year.
Electric vehicle managed charging can benefit all consumers by supporting grid planning, operation, and reliability – especially complementing high-renewable systems.
Price-taker (PT) models are often used to assess the potential value or revenue of energy arbitrage opportunities for energy storage in wholesale markets. But as greater amounts of energy storage are deployed on the grid, current PT models fail to predict the effects that energy storage itself can have on market prices. This can lead to an overestimation of the economic value of storage and an inability to capture price suppression. In this paper, we propose the use of a modified PT model to simulate the impact of increased storage deployment on energy prices and the resulting impact on revenue. Our method uses a gradient-boosting regressor to estimate the impact on prices, and we apply our method on historical price data from the PJM and California Independent System Operator wholesale markets. We use this approach to explore possible causes of electricity price suppression that occur from storage capacity additions, which is generally not possible with PT models.
This report, the fifth in the Storage Futures Study series, uses cost-driven scenarios from the ReEDS model as a starting point to examine the operational impacts of grid-scale storage deployment and relationships between this deployment and the contribution of variable renewable energy. We use commercial production cost modeling software to evaluate hourly operation of five scenarios that reach between 210 gigawatts (GW) and 930 GW of installed storage by 2050. We find that storage plays an important role in these power systems between now and 2050 - by storing the lowest-marginal cost generation (often, overgeneration from solar or wind plants) and generating energy during the highest net load periods of the day and year. Storage helps with the integration of variable renewable energy and by providing an important resource to provide continued reliable power.
The electric power system has historically been designed to provide reliable energy to loads by using a relatively small number of well-understood generators. The distinction between load, generation, and transmission resources has been quite clear. Most of the responsibility for planning and operating a system - building a highly reliable network from less reliable parts - has been with the system manager, whether that be a utility, a regional market operator, or some similar entity. Given this historical context, many experts were initially perplexed by the rapidly growing popularity of hybrid resources, which combine multiple technologies into a single entity. Rather than depending on a system operator to provide instructions to individual technologies, hybrid resources intentionally take on more operational responsibility by optimizing and scheduling their combined functions. Interconnection queues in many regions reveal a large and growing interest in hybrids, suggesting that project developers and investors see them as providing advantages.
The scientific consensus is that carbon emissions need to reach net zero by 2050 to stabilize a global temperature rise below 2 degrees C. Many studies have focused on reaching net zero in the power sector by 2050 and have posited the need for clean firm power sources. Resources such as nuclear, fossil generation with carbon capture and sequestration, or other technologies would be needed to complement variable wind and solar generation.
This webinar, presented by Paul Denholm and Will Frazier, incorporates material from two publications of the NREL Storage Futures Study: "The Four Phases of Storage Deployment: A Framework for the Expanding Role of Storage in the U.S. Power System" (https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/77480.pdf) and "Storage Futures Study: Economic Potential of Diurnal Storage in the U.S. Power Sector" (https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/77449.pdf).
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