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Jefferson, Brett A.

Publications and source records attributed to Jefferson, Brett A..

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating the Contributions to Human Error Probability from the Convolution of the Distribution of Time Available and Time Required

As part of their duties, Human Reliability Analysis must often evaluate if crews in nuclear power plants (NPPs) can complete tasks associated with a human-failure event within time limits. For example, the time required in NPP scenarios is determined by systematic and structured walkthroughs, feasibility studies, recorded times from training exercises, and interviews with experienced operators and experts. Typically, a point estimate is derived for the estimate (mean, maximum, or 95th percentile of time required). Using point-estimate values can mask the risk associated with variability among crews, plant conditions and set-up, environmental conditions, and other impact factors under which these actions are executed. While point estimates for time required and time available have served the industry well, without considering the uncertainty they could lead to biased understanding about the risk. The Integrated Human Event Analysis System - General Methodology (IDHEAS-G) model (developed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC) for human error probability calculates human error probability by summing two probabilities: insufficient time and cognitive error. As such, the model takes a more holistic approach by considering the full distributions for time required and time available to calculate the human error probability because the time available to complete the task is insufficient. In this study, we expand on the work of the NRC and discuss methods for estimating these time considerations. For example, for the time required, the impact of Performance Influencing Factors (PIFs) on the distribution was divided into impacts that are aleatory in nature, such as crew-to-crew variability, and those that are epistemic (i.e., the PIFs). Starting with the factors that introduce aleatory uncertainty, a first-order distribution was developed from a large set of time required (i.e., NPP task completion times) data for the range of operator actions that occur in the NPP control room under simulated accident conditions. The first-order distribution can then be adjusted to account for epistemic uncertainty using research associated with the impact of applicable PIFs on the time required. We also develop guidance for analysts to address the probability distributions for the time available. The guidance we developed on how to estimate time required and time available distributions is based on the identification of pertinent research and data, data analyses, and expert knowledge elicitation.

human error probability, human performance, time e↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transmission Operator Workflows for Real-Time Reliability Studies: A Review of Control Room Practices and Naturalistic Decision Making

This report provides an overview of real-time reliability study tools and their use by power system operators in the control room environment. After introducing some of the nuances of the control room environment and the differences in perspectives between power system engineers and operators, the roles and responsibilities of key entities involved in RTCA workflows are introduced. These are specifically the transmission system operator (TOP) and reliability coordinator (RC), which are required to run tools such as real-time contingency analysis (RTCA) as part of a real-time reliability assessment every 30 minutes, as dictated by a series of standards issued by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). The process by which power systems operators operate the grid is discussed in terms of naturalistic decision making (NDM) and the recognition-primed decision-making (RPD) model. This cognitive model describe how experts working in high-risk, high-stress environments make safety-critical decisions under uncertainty and time pressure. For power system operators, the mental simulations involved in the traditional RPD model are supplemented by physics-based simulations using numerical tools, such as RTCA, to improve situational awareness and effectiveness of control actions. Next, a generic workflow is introduced to describe operator decision making for running RTCA tools and responding to system violations on a pre-contingent basis. The types of analysis performed and control actions chosen by power system operators are described in detail. The overall high-level workflow is then expanded in subsequent sections, with special attention given to high-voltage violations, low-voltage violations, and thermal overloads. Each type of violation is described in detail, with explanations of common causes, impacts on equipment and customers, and mitigation strategies. An additional workflow diagram is provided for each type of violation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparing Mapper Graphs of Artificial Neuron Activations

The mapper graph is a popular tool from topological data analysis that provides a graphical summary of point cloud data. It has been used to study data from cancer research, sports analytics, neurosciences, and machine learning. In particular, mapper graphs have been used recently to visualize the topology of high-dimensional artificial neural activations from convolutional neural networks and large language models. However, a key question that arises from using mapper graphs across applications is how to compare mapper graphs to study their structural differences. In this paper, we introduce a distance between mapper graphs using tools from optimal transport. We demonstrate the utility of such a distance by studying the topological changes of neural activations across convolutional layers in deep learning, as well as by capturing the loss of structural information for multiscale mapper.

mapper graphs, computational topology, machine lea↗
DOE OSTI2023

Developing Confidence in Machine Learning Results

As the field of deep learning has emerged in recent years, the amount of knowledge and expertise that data scientists are expected to absorb and maintain has correspondingly increased. One of the challenges experienced by data scientists working with deep learning models is developing confidence in the accuracy of their approach and the resulting findings. In this study, we conducted semi-structured interviews with data scientists at a National Laboratory to understand the processes that data scientists use when attempting to develop their models and the ways that they gain confidence that the results they obtained were accurate. These interviews were analysed to provide an overview of the techniques currently used when working with machine learning (ML) models and opportunities for collaboration with human factors researchers to develop new tools are identified.

Baweja, Jessica A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Human Factors in Discovery Phase of TRLs and HRLs

With rapid growth in technology, there has been a corresponding growth in research focused on the ways that human-machine interactions can be improved. As part of that work, researchers have explored how human expertise can inform technology design and evaluation. For example, interaction with subject matter experts (SMEs) or end users can help to design and enhance a machine. The human factors of technology release can be divided into five steps: discovery, planning, development, evaluation, and deployment. This framework is a higher-level abstraction of the Human Readiness Levels for technology use and adoption (See, et al., 2018). In this exposition, we discuss how human factors methodologies, principles, and practices can be realized in the first phase, Discovery, of the technology development process.

Jefferson, Brett A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Experimental Observations of the Topology of Convolutional Neural Network Activations

Topological data analysis (TDA) is a branch of computational mathematics, bridging algebraic topology and data science, that provides compact, noise-robust representations of complex structures. Deep neural networks (DNNs) learn millions of parameters associated with a series of transformations defined by the model architecture resulting in high-dimensional, difficult to interpret internal representations of input data. As DNNs become more ubiquitous across multiple sectors of our society, there is increasing recognition that mathematical methods are needed to aid analysts, researchers, and practitioners in understanding and interpreting how these models' internal representations relate to the final classification. In this paper we apply cutting edge techniques from TDA with the goal of gaining insight towards interpretability of convolutional neural networks used for image classification. We use two common TDA approaches to explore several methods for modeling hidden layer activations as high-dimensional point clouds, and provide experimental evidence that these point clouds capture valuable structural information about the model's process. First, we demonstrate that a distance metric based on persistent homology can be used to quantify meaningful differences between layers and discuss these distances in the broader context of existing representational similarity metrics for neural network interpretability. Second, we show that a mapper graph can provide semantic insight as to how these models organize hierarchical class knowledge at each layer. These observations demonstrate that TDA is a useful tool to help deep learning practitioners unlock the hidden structures of their models.

topological data analysis, deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2023

Opportunities for human factors in machine learning

Introduction The field of machine learning and its subfield of deep learning have grown rapidly in recent years. With the speed of advancement, it is nearly impossible for data scientists to maintain expert knowledge of cutting-edge techniques. This study applies human factors methods to the field of machine learning to address these difficulties. Methods Using semi-structured interviews with data scientists at a National Laboratory, we sought to understand the process used when working with machine learning models, the challenges encountered, and the ways that human factors might contribute to addressing those challenges. Results Results of the interviews were analyzed to create a generalization of the process of working with machine learning models. Issues encountered during each process step are described. Discussion Recommendations and areas for collaboration between data scientists and human factors experts are provided, with the goal of creating better tools, knowledge, and guidance for machine learning scientists.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Analysis of Grid Operator Survey Responses: Inexperience, Workload and Fatigue in the Control Room

Although a wide array of tools and technologies have been developed over the last decade to support power grid operators, deployment of these tools has been less successful. One reason for unsuccessful deployment may be an inadequate understanding of the factors that contribute to operator error in the control room. An analysis of operators’ current vulnerabilities may provide the baseline understanding needed to inform new technology integration. In an attempt to learn more about these vulnerabilities and their perceived impact on human error we collected and analyzed survey data from 20 electric grid control room operators. We asked survey respondents to consider the various operator, technology and interaction vulnerabilities that may arise during work in the control room and record their attitudes and experiences toward each. Results suggest operator inexperience, high mental workload and fatigue are the most common vulnerabilities experienced during a shift. Survey results were analyzed to explore these vulnerabilities in greater depth.

Inexperience, Workload, Fatigue↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Real-Time Operations Manual for the IEEE 118 Bus Transmission Model

This document presents a sample operations manual for the IEEE 118 Bus Model, which is a synthetic test case developed in 1962 from a section of the transmission grid operated by American Electric Power (AEP). The model is one of the most used synthetic test cases for development of power system applications and is referenced by over 9000 papers. However, the model lacks any context for use with real-time energy management system (EMS) applications, including common considerations, such as generator ramp rates, reactive capabilities, operating limits, and other information typically used by power system operators for real-time decision making. This manual divides the IEEE 118 Bus Model into three operating areas, defines various operating limits, and sets recommended operating procedures for responding to a few types of emergency operating conditions. The manual can be used in support of a wide variety of human-in-the-loop evaluation methodologies for new advanced power applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Operator Insights and Usability Evaluation of Machine Learning Assistance for Power Grid Contingency Analysis

Introducing machine learning (ML) assistance into any established process comes with adoption barriers, including entrenched procedures, technological and human readiness levels, human-machine trust, and work culture resistance to change. These barriers are even greater in critical operations such as operating a national or regional power grid, in which both regulatory frameworks and the importance of maintaining reliability levels causes additional resistance to the adoption of new computational support. Developers of future systems and job aides must consider not only technical aspects, but also whether new systems are usable by power system operators. This work presents the methodology and results of a study to evaluate the usability and readiness of a prototype recommender system for power grid contingency analysis. We explore operator cognitive load and evaluate operator performance when solving a collection of scenarios both with and without recommender assistance. We also examine operator trust in the system. We report insights gained on the readiness of the system using a collection of evaluation techniques.

Human-Machine Teaming, Power Systems, usability ev↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Methodology for Evaluating Operator Usage of Machine Learning Recommendations for Power Grid Contingency Analysis

This work presents the application of a methodology to measure domain expert trust and workload, elicit feedback, and understand the technological usability and impact when a machine learning assistant is introduced into contingency analysis for real-time power grid simulation. The goal of this framework is to rapidly collect and analyze a broad variety of human factors data in order to accelerate the development and evaluation loop for deploying machine learning applications. We describe our methodology and analysis, and we discuss insights gained from a pilot participant about the current usability state of an early technology readiness level (TRL) artificial neural network (ANN) recommender.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Utility in Conjoint Analysis as a Fast Expert Elicitation Technique

This paper presents an interface and analysis technique for quickly conducting expert elicitation with the goal of determining entity importance. Our interface deploys a two-alternative choice experiment that is capable of representing knowledge graphs in an easy to interpret fashion for users with limited experience with knowledge graphs. Our analysis methodology takes advantage of conjoint analysis techniques and provides entity weights for many SMEs simultaneously. The results largely align with individual participant fits.

Conjoint Analysis, interface, Expert Elicitation, ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Explaining and predicting human behavior and social dynamics in simulated virtual worlds: reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of causal discovery methods

Ground Truth program was designed to evaluate social science modeling approaches using simulation test beds with ground truth intentionally and systematically embedded to understand and model complex Human Domain systems and their dynamics Lazer et al. (Science 369:1060–1062, 2020). Our multidisciplinary team of data scientists, statisticians, experts in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and visual analytics had a unique role on the program to investigate accuracy, reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of the state-of-the-art (SOTA) causal structure learning approaches applied to fully observed and sampled simulated data across virtual worlds. In addition, we analyzed the feasibility of using machine learning models to predict future social behavior with and without causal knowledge explicitly embedded. In this paper, we first present our causal modeling approach to discover the causal structure of four virtual worlds produced by the simulation teams—Urban Life, Financial Governance, Disaster and Geopolitical Conflict. Our approach adapts the state-of-the-art causal discovery (including ensemble models), machine learning, data analytics, and visualization techniques to allow a human-machine team to reverse-engineer the true causal relations from sampled and fully observed data. We next present our reproducibility analysis of two research methods team’s performance using a range of causal discovery models applied to both sampled and fully observed data, and analyze their effectiveness and limitations. We further investigate the generalizability and robustness to sampling of the SOTA causal discovery approaches on additional simulated datasets with known ground truth. Our results reveal the limitations of existing causal modeling approaches when applied to large-scale, noisy, high-dimensional data with unobserved variables and unknown relationships between them. We show that the SOTA causal models explored in our experiments are not designed to take advantage from vasts amounts of data and have difficulty recovering ground truth when latent confounders are present; they do not generalize well across simulation scenarios and are not robust to sampling; they are vulnerable to data and modeling assumptions, and therefore, the results are hard to reproduce. Finally, when we outline lessons learned and provide recommendations to improve models for causal discovery and prediction of human social behavior from observational data, we highlight the importance of learning data to knowledge representations or transformations to improve causal discovery and describe the benefit of causal feature selection for predictive and prescriptive modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sheaves as a Framework for Understanding and Interpreting Model Fit

As data grows in size and complexity, finding frameworks which aid in interpretation and analysis has become critical. This is particularly true when data comes from complex systems where extensive structure is available, but must be drawn from peripheral sources. In this paper we argue that in such situations, sheaves can provide a natural framework to analyze how well a statistical model fits at the local level (that is, on subsets of related datapoints) vs the global level (on all the data). The sheaf-based approach that we propose is suitably general enough to be useful in a range of applications, from analyzing sensor networks to understanding the feature space of a deep learning model.

Kvinge, Henry J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hypernetwork Science: From Multidimensional Networks to Computational Topology

As data structures and mathematical objects used for complex systems modeling, hypergraphs sit nicely poised between on the one hand the world of network models, and on the other that of higher-order mathematical abstractions from algebra, lattice theory, and topology. They are able to represent complex systems interactions more faithfully than graphs and networks, while also being some of the simplest classes of systems representing topological structures as collections of multidimensional objects connected in a particular pattern. In this paper we discuss the role of (undirected) hypergraphs in the science of complex networks, and provide a mathematical overview of the core concepts needed for hypernetwork modeling, including duality and the relationship to bicolored graphs, quantitative adjacency and incidence, the nature of walks in hypergraphs, and available topological relationships and properties. We close with a brief discussion of two example applications: biomedical databases for disease analysis, and domain-name system (DNS) analysis of cyber data.

Joslyn, Cliff A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hypergraph Models of Biological Networks to Identify Genes Critical to Pathogenic Viral Response

Motivation: Representing biological networks as graphs is a powerful approach to reveal underlying patterns, signatures, and critical components from high-throughput biomolecular data. However, graphs do not natively capture the multi-way relationships present among genes and proteins in biological systems such as protein complexes, metabolic reactions, and signal transduction pathways. Hypergraphs are generalizations of graphs that naturally model multi-way interactions in data, and we therefore seek to understand how they can more faithfully identify, and potentially predict, complex relationships in genomic expression data sets. Results: We compiled a novel data set of transcriptional host response to pathogenic viral infections and formulated relationships between genes as a hypergraph where hyperedges are differentially expressed genes and vertices represent conditions. We find that hypergraph betweenness centrality is a superior method for identification of genes important to viral response when compared with graph centrality. Our results demonstrate the utility of using hypergraphs to represent complex biological systems, and highlight potentially interesting biological results about host response to highly pathogenic viruses.

systems biology, hypergraph, viral infection, biol↗
DOE OSTI2020

Robust Assessment of Real-World Adversarial Examples

We explore rigorous, systematic, and controlled experimental evaluation of adversarial examples in the real world and propose a testing regimen for evaluation of real world adversarial objects. We show that for small scene/ environmental perturbations, large adversarial performance differences exist. Current state of adversarial reporting exists largely as a frequency count over a dynamic collections of scenes. Our work underscores the need for either a more complete report or a score that incorporates scene changes and baseline performance for models and environments tested by adversarial developers. We put forth a score that attempts to address the above issues in a straight-forward exemplar application for multiple generated adversary examples. We contribute the following: 1. a testbed for adversarial assessment, 2. a score for adversarial examples, and 3. a collection of additional evaluations on testbed data.

deep learning, adversarial machine learning, machi↗