Engineering topics

Keating, Terry

Publications and source records attributed to Keating, Terry.

4 records

DOE OSTI2023

The HTAP_v3 emission mosaic: merging regional and global monthly emissions (2000–2018) to support air quality modelling and policies

This study, performed under the umbrella of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP), responds to the global and regional atmospheric modelling community's need of a mosaic emission inventory of air pollutants that conforms to specific requirements: global coverage, long time series, spatially distributed emissions with high time resolution, and a high sectoral resolution. The mosaic approach of integrating official regional emission inventories based on locally reported data, with a global inventory based on a globally consistent methodology, allows modellers to perform simulations of high scientific quality while also ensuring that the results remain relevant to policymakers. HTAP_v3, an ad hoc global mosaic of anthropogenic inventories, has been developed by integrating official inventories over specific areas (North America, Europe, Asia including Japan and South Korea) with the independent Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) inventory for the remaining world regions. The results are spatially and temporally distributed emissions of SO 2 , NO $x$ , CO, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), NH 3 , PM 10 , PM 2.5 , black carbon (BC), and organic carbon (OC), with a spatial resolution of 0.1º × 0.1º and time intervals of months and years, covering the period 2000–2018. The emissions are further disaggregated into 16 anthropogenic emitting sectors. This paper describes the methodology applied to develop such an emission mosaic, reports on source allocation, differences among existing inventories, and best practices for the mosaic compilation. One of the key strengths of the HTAP_v3 emission mosaic is its temporal coverage, enabling the analysis of emission trends over the past 2 decades. The development of a global emission mosaic over such long time series represents a unique product for global air quality modelling and for better-informed policymaking, reflecting the community effort expended by the TF-HTAP to disentangle the complexity of transboundary transport of air pollution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Chapter 22 - Pathways Toward Sustainable Development

Model-based scenario analysis can help in identifying ways to achieve the environmental targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and related multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) (well established). Target-seeking scenarios provide insight into the required level of effort, promising measures, and possible synergies and trade-offs between these measures and a range of targets. The usefulness of scenarios can be illustrated by the successful use of such scenarios in the literature on climate policy. Scenarios can be used to explore different pathways for achieving long-term targets and provide insights into the costs and benefits of these pathways. There are important interrelations (synergies and trade-offs) between the achievement of the various SDGs and related MEAs.. This means that strategies that aim to achieve sets of targets will have to take account for these interrelations. At the moment, scenarios that explore the fulfilment of a large set of SDG targets simultaneously are mostly lacking. An assessment of possible pathways must therefore rely on more narrowly focused scenarios in the literature. This does lead to a higher level of uncertainty and some clear knowledge gaps. {22.2}

Van Vuuren, Detlef↗

DOE OSTI2019

Chapter 21 - Future Developments Without Targeted Policies

Together with other tools, model-based scenario analysis provides a useful method to explore whether environment related targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and related Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEAs) are going to be achieved (well established). Assessing whether current trends are leading to fulfilment of the selected targets outlined in Chapter 20 is complex: it requires insights into the interactions of different trends and systems, inertia and cross-scale relationships. A combination of qualitative storylines and quantitative scenario tools can help to explore possible futures trends, while taking the many complexities into account. While scenarios can never be forecasts, because surprises may occur, they can inform decision makers of the likely implications of current trends. {21.2}

Lucas, Paul↗

DOE OSTI2018

Long-range transport impacts on surface aerosol concentrations and the contributions to haze events in China: an HTAP2 multi-model study

Haze has been severely affecting the densely populated areas in China recently. While many of the efforts have been devoted to investigating the impact of local anthropogenic emission, limited attention has been paid to the contribution from long-range transport. In this study, we apply simulations from six participating models supplied through the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution phase 2 (HTAP2) exercise to investigate the long-range transport impact of Europe (EUR) and Russia–Belarus–Ukraine (RBU) on the surface air quality in eastern Asia(EAS), with special focus on their contributions during the haze episodes in China. The impact of 20 % anthropogenic emission perturbation from the source region is extrapolated by a factor of 5 to estimate the full impact.We find that the full impacts from EUR and RBU are 0.99 µg m -3 (3.1 %) and 1.32 µg m -3 (4.1 %) during haze episodes,while the annual averaged full impacts are only 0.35 µg m -3 (1.7 %) and 0.53 µg m -3 (2.6 %). By estimating the aerosol response within and above the planetary boundary layer (PBL), we find that long-range transport from EUR within the PBL contributes to 22–38 % of the total column density of aerosol response in EAS. Comparison with the HTAP phase 1 (HTAP1) assessment reveals that from 2000 to 2010, the long-range transport from Europe to eastern Asia has decreased significantly by a factor of 2–10 for surface aerosol mass concentration due to the simultaneous emission reduction in source regions and emission increase in the receptor region. We also find the long-range transport from the Europe and RBU regions increases the number of haze events in China by 0.15 % and 0.11 %, and the North China Plain and southeastern China has 1–3 extra haze days (<3 %). This study is the first investigation into the contribution of long-range transport to haze in China with multi-model experiments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗