Chapter 21 - Future Developments Without Targeted Policies

Abstract

Together with other tools, model-based scenario analysis provides a useful method to explore whether environment related targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and related Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEAs) are going to be achieved (well established). Assessing whether current trends are leading to fulfilment of the selected targets outlined in Chapter 20 is complex: it requires insights into the interactions of different trends and systems, inertia and cross-scale relationships. A combination of qualitative storylines and quantitative scenario tools can help to explore possible futures trends, while taking the many complexities into account. While scenarios can never be forecasts, because surprises may occur, they can inform decision makers of the likely implications of current trends. {21.2}