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Li, F.

Publications and source records attributed to Li, F..

At least 19 records

Impacts of the Mount Pinatubo eruption on ENSO in the GEOS seasonal-to-subseasonal forecasting system

The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991 introduced a perturbation of the Earth's global energy budget by increasing the stratospheric aerosol loading by an order of magnitude, with effects on the global climate. In this presentation we analyze the effects of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption on the seasonal forecast performed with Goddard Earth Observing System Seasonal-to Subseasonal (GEOS-S2S) system, an Earth System Model that includes an interactive ocean and a bulk aerosol model coupled to radiation. We performed 10-member ensembles for the year after the eruption (June 1991-May 1992) at ~0.5 horizontal resolution, with and without the inclusion of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. In GEOS-S2S, the eruption leads to ta strengthening of El Nino peaking in January 1992. The strengthening is mainly due to the weakening of the trade winds, which is caused by a attening of the temperature gradient across the Pacic due to a differential response to the volcanic forcing between the central and eastern Pacic (ocean-dynamical thermostat). This response largely depends on the assumed size for the volcanic aerosols. Indeed, we performed simulations assuming a volcanic aerosol effective radius of 0.35 m (similar to tropospheric aerosol, and the default in GEOS) and 0.6 m (closer to observations of volcanic aerosol from Pinatubo-sized eruptions). We nd that in the latter case the tropical radiative forcing is lower, since smaller aerosols scatter shortwave radiation more eciently than larger ones. Accordingly, the impact on ENSO is not statistically signicant when a larger and more realistic particle radius is assumed.

Aquila, Valentina

Boundary Layer Stability and Laminar-Turbulent Transition Analysis with Thermochemical Nonequilibrium Applied to Martian Atmospheric Entry

As Martian atmospheric entry vehicles increase in size to accommodate larger payloads, transitional ow may need to be taken into account in the design of the heat shield in order to reduce heat shield mass. The mass of the Thermal Protection System (TPS) comprises a significant portion of the vehicle mass, and a reduction of this mass would result in fuel savings. The current techniques used to design entry shields generally assume fully turbulent flow when the vehicle is large enough to expect transitional flow, and while this worst-case scenario provides a greater factor of safety it may also result in overdesigned TPS and unnecessarily high vehicle mass. Greater accuracy in the prediction of transition would also reduce uncertainty in the thermal and aerodynamic loads. Stability analysis, using e(sup⁡ N) -based methods including Linear Stability Theory (LST) and the Parabolized Stability Equations (PSE), offers a physics-based method of transition prediction that has been thoroughly studied and applied in perfect gas flows, and to a more limited extent in reacting and nonequilibrium flows. These methods predict the amplification of a known disturbance frequency and allow identification of the most unstable frequency. Transition is predicted to occur at a critical amplification or N Factor, frequently determined through experiment and empirical correlations. The LAngley Stability and TRansition Analysis Code (LASTRAC), with modifications for thermochemically reacting flows and arbitrary gas mixtures, will be presented with LST results on a simulation of a high enthalpy CO2 gas wind tunnel test relevant to Martian atmospheric entry. The results indicate transition caused by modified Tollmien-Schlichting waves on the leeward side, which are predicted to be more stable and cause transition slightly downstream when thermochemical nonequilibrium is included in the stability analysis for the same mean flow solution.

Transition

Boundary Layer Stability and Transition in a Chemically Reacting Martian Atmosphere Using LASTRAC

The Thermal Protection System (TPS) is a significant portion of the mass of reentry vehicles, planetary probes, and Martian entry vehicles. Reducing this mass has benefits in terms of decreased fuel requirements and increased payload; however, due to the high risk and uncertainty, the TPS or heat shields are designed conservatively by assuming fully turbulent flow. Laminar flow results in reduced heat flux, and improved transition prediction has the potential to reduce TPS mass and uncertainty in aerothermodynamic predictions. Limited previous research exists examining the problem of transition prediction for Martian atmospheric entry, with studies available on transition on the Mars Science Laboratory TPS. Although transition was demonstrated in wind-tunnel tests, uncertainty in the transition location resulted in a TPS designed for fully turbulent flow, and therefore greater mass than required for a partially laminar condition. In this work, we extend the boundary layer stability code LASTRAC, recently modified to include chemical and thermal nonequilibrium capabilities, to a model of the Martian atmosphere. LASTRAC provides Parabolized Stability Equations (PSE) as well as Linear Stability Theory (LST) to predict the stability of a boundary layer and transition with semi-empirical e(sup N) methods. Results included in this work compare disturbance growth characteristics between air and Martian atmosphere at similar non-dimensional freestream conditions on a simple flat plate geometry. Both chemical nonequilibrium and thermochemical nonequilibrium, as well as both PSE and LST, are used.

Kline, H. L.

Multiple Boundary Layer Instability Modes with Nonequilibrium and Wall Temperature Effects Using LASTRAC

Prediction and control of boundary layer transition from laminar to turbulent is important to many flow regimes and vehicle designs, including vehicles operating at hypersonic conditions where nonequilibrium effects may be encountered. Wall cooling is known to affect the instability characteristics of the boundary layer and subsequently the transition location. Design considerations, including material failure and fuel chemistry, require the use of actively cooled walls in hypersonic vehicles, further motivating the study of wall temperature effects on top of the considerations of reducing heat flux, drag, and uncertainty. In this work, we analyze the stability of a boundary layer with chemical and thermal nonequilibrium on a Mach 20, 6 wedge. We investigate the effects of wall temperature on multiple unstable modes individually and on the integrated growth of disturbances along the surface. We use the LAngley Stability and TRansition Analysis Code (LASTRAC) to evaluate boundary layer stability, using capabilities implemented by the authors. Included are results that address chemical nonequilibrium with both thermal equilibrium and nonequilibrium.

Kline, H. L.

DNS of Laminar-Turbulent Transition in Swept-Wing Boundary Layers

Direct numerical simulation (DNS) is performed to examine laminar to turbulent transition due to high-frequency secondary instability of stationary crossflow vortices in a subsonic swept-wing boundary layer for a realistic natural-laminar-flow airfoil configuration. The secondary instability is introduced via inflow forcing and the mode selected for forcing corresponds to the most amplified secondary instability mode that, in this case, derives a majority of its growth from energy production mechanisms associated with the wall-normal shear of the stationary basic state. An inlet boundary condition is carefully designed to allow for accurate injection of instability wave modes and minimize acoustic reflections at numerical boundaries. Nonlinear parabolized stability equation (PSE) predictions compare well with the DNS in terms of modal amplitudes and modal shape during the strongly nonlinear phase of the secondary instability mode. During the transition process, the skin friction coefficient rises rather rapidly and the wall-shear distribution shows a sawtooth pattern that is analogous to the previously documented surface flow visualizations of transition due to stationary crossflow instability. Fully turbulent features are observed in the downstream region of the flow.

Duan, L.

Assessment of the Breakup of the Antarctic Polar Vortex in Two New Chemistry-Climate Models

Successful simulation of the breakup of the Antarctic polar vortex depends on the representation of tropospheric stationary waves at Southern Hemisphere middle latitudes. This paper assesses the vortex breakup in two new chemistry-climate models (CCMs). The stratospheric version of the UK Chemistry and Aerosols model is able to reproduce the observed timing of the vortex breakup. Version 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS V2) model is typical of CCMs in that the Antarctic polar vortex breaks up too late; at 10 hPa, the mean transition to easterlies at 60 S is delayed by 12-13 days as compared with the ERA-40 and National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalyses. The two models' skill in simulating planetary wave driving during the October-November period accounts for differences in their simulation of the vortex breakup, with GEOS V2 unable to simulate the magnitude and tilt of geopotential height anomalies in the troposphere and thus underestimating the wave driving. In the GEOS V2 CCM the delayed breakup of the Antarctic vortex biases polar temperatures and trace gas distributions in the upper stratosphere in November and December.

Hurwitz, M. M.

QBO Influence on Polar Stratospheric Variability in the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model

The quasi-biennial oscillation modulates the strength of both the Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric vortices. Model and observational studies have found that the phase and characteristics of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) contribute to the high degree of variability in the Arctic stratosphere in winter. While the Antarctic stratosphere is less variable, recent work has shown that Southern Hemisphere planetary wave driving increases in response to "warm pool" El Nino events that are coincident with the easterly phase of the QBO. These events hasten the breakup of the Antarctic polar vortex. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) is now capable of generating a realistic QBO, due a new parameterization of gravity wave drag. In this presentation, we will use this new model capability to assess the influence of the QBO on polar stratospheric variability. Using simulations of the recent past, we will compare the modeled relationship between QBO phase and mid-winter vortex strength with the observed Holton-Tan relation, in both hemispheres. We will use simulations of the 21 St century to estimate future trends in the relationship between QBO phase and vortex strength. In addition, we will evaluate the combined influence of the QBO and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the timing of the breakup of the polar stratospheric vortices in the GEOS CCM. We will compare the influence of these two natural phenomena with trends in the vortex breakup associated with ozone recovery and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.

Hurwitz, M. M.

Stratospheric Ozone in the Post-CFC Era

Vertical and latitudinal changes in the stratospheric ozone in the post-chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) era are investigated using simulations of the recent past and the 21st century with a coupled chemistry-climate model. Model results reveal that, in the 2060s when the stratospheric halogen loading is projected to return to its 1980 values, the extratropical column ozone is significantly higher than that in 1975-1984, but the tropical column ozone does not recover to 1980 values. Upper and lower stratospheric ozone changes in the post-CFC era have very different patterns. Above 15 hPa ozone increases almost latitudinally uniformly by 6 Dobson Unit (DU), whereas below 15 hPa ozone decreases in the tropics by 8 DU and increases in the extratropics by up to 16 DU. The upper stratospheric ozone increase is a photochemical response to greenhouse gas induced strong cooling, and the lower stratospheric ozone changes are consistent with enhanced mean advective transport due to a stronger Brewer-Dobson circulation. The model results suggest that the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation plays a crucial role in ozone recovery and ozone distributions in the post-CFC era.

Li, F.

Assessment and Consequences of the Delayed Breakup of the Antarctic Polar Vortex in Two Versions of the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model

In mid-winter, winds circle the globe at speeds greater than 200 km/hr (approximately 130mph) in the middle atmosphere. This strong jet bounds the region known as the polar vortex. The presence of the Antarctic polar vortex is a key ingredient in the formation of the 'ozone hole', because the air inside the vortex is cold and isolated from lower latitudes, creating ideal conditions for large-scale chemical ozone depletion. Many atmospheric models are not able to reproduce observed winds in the middle atmosphere. Specifically, the polar vortices tend to break down too late and peak wind speeds are higher than observed. Hurwitz et al. find that the delayed break-up of the Antarctic polar vortex is due to weaker-than-observed wave driving from the lower atmosphere during the October-November period. The delayed break-up of the Antarctic polar vortex changes the temperature structure of the middle atmosphere, which biases the amount of chemical ozone depletion that can occur in late winter and spring. Also, the extended lifetime of the polar vortex strengthens the 'overturning' circulation cell in the middle atmosphere, changing the amount of ozone, methane and other chemical species that is transported from low to high latitudes. As greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise, the atmospheric temperature structure and resulting wind structure are expected to change. Clearly, if models cannot duplicate the observed late 20th century high-latitude winds, their ability to simulate the polar vortices in future must be poor. Understanding model weaknesses and improving the modeled polar vortices will be necessary for accurate predictions of ozone recovery in the coming century.

Hurwitz, M.M.