Engineering topics
Misumi, Munechika
Publications and source records attributed to Misumi, Munechika.
A note on potential gains in precision of radiation risk estimates from joint analysis
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Risk Ratio and Risk Difference Estimation in Case-cohort Studies
Background: In case-cohort studies with binary outcomes, ordinary logistic regression analyses have been widely used because of their computational simplicity. However, the resultant odds ratio estimates cannot be interpreted as relative risk measures unless the event rate is low. The risk ratio and risk difference are more favorable outcome measures that are directly interpreted as effect measures without the rare disease assumption. Methods: We provide pseudo-Poisson and pseudo-normal linear regression methods for estimating risk ratios and risk differences in analyses of case-cohort studies. These multivariate regression models are fitted by weighting the inverses of sampling probabilities. Also, the precisions of the risk ratio and risk difference estimators can be improved using auxiliary variable information, specifically by adapting the calibrated or estimated weights, which are readily measured on all samples from the whole cohort. Finally, we provide computational code in R (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria) that can easily perform these methods. Results: Through numerical analyses of artificially simulated data and the National Wilms Tumor Study data, accurate risk ratio and risk difference estimates were obtained using the pseudo-Poisson and pseudo-normal linear regression methods. Also, using the auxiliary variable information from the whole cohort, precisions of these estimators were markedly improved. Conclusion: The ordinary logistic regression analyses may provide uninterpretable effect measure estimates, and the risk ratio and risk difference estimation methods are effective alternative approaches for case-cohort studies. These methods are especially recommended under situations in which the event rate is not low.
Female “Paradox” in Atrial Fibrillation—Role of Left Truncation Due to Competing Risks
Female sex in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) is a controversial and paradoxical risk factor for stroke—controversial because it increases the risk of stroke only among older women of some ethnicities and paradoxical because it appears to contradict male predominance in cardiovascular diseases. However, the underlying mechanism remains unclear. We conducted simulations to examine the hypothesis that this sex difference is generated non-causally through left truncation due to competing risks (CR) such as coronary artery diseases, which occur more frequently among men than among women and share common unobserved causes with stroke. We modeled the hazards of stroke and CR with correlated heterogeneous risk. We assumed that some people died of CR before AF diagnosis and calculated the hazard ratio of female sex in the left-truncated AF population. In this situation, female sex became a risk factor for stroke in the absence of causal roles. The hazard ratio was attenuated in young populations without left truncation and in populations with low CR and high stroke incidence, which is consistent with real-world observations. This study demonstrated that spurious risk factors can be identified through left truncation due to correlated CR. Female sex in patients with AF may be a paradoxical risk factor for stroke.
Massive expansion of multiple clones in the mouse hematopoietic system long after whole-body X-irradiation
Clonal hematopoiesis (CH) is prevalent in the elderly and associates with hematologic malignancy and cardiovascular disease. Although the risk of developing these diseases increases with radiation doses in atomic-bomb survivors, the causal relationship between radiation exposure and CH is unclear. This study investigated whether radiation exposure induces CH in mice 12–18 months after 3-Gy whole-body irradiation. We found radiation-associated increases in peripheral blood myeloid cells and red blood cell distribution width (RDW). Deep sequencing of bone marrow and non-hematopoietic tissue cells revealed recurrent somatic mutations specifically in the hematopoietic system in 11 of 12 irradiated mice but none in 6 non-irradiated mice. The irradiated mice possessed mutations with variant allele frequencies (VAFs) of > 0.02 on an average of 5.8 per mouse; mutations with VAFs of > 0.1 and/or deletion were prevalent. Examining hematopoietic stem/progenitor cells in two irradiated mice revealed several mutations co-existing in the same clones and multiple independent clones that deliver 60–80% of bone marrow nuclear cells. Our results indicate development of massive CH due to radiation exposure. Moreover, we have characterized mutations in radiation-induced CH.
Chromosome aberrations among atomic-bomb survivors exposed in utero: updated analysis accounting for revised radiation doses and smoking
A previous study of peripheral blood lymphocyte translocations around age 40 among atomic-bomb survivors exposed in utero revealed no overall association with radiation dose—despite a clear association between translocations and dose among their mothers—but the data suggested an increase at doses below 100 mGy with a definite peak. That analysis of the in utero-exposed survivors did not adjust for their subsequent smoking behavior, an established cause of chromosomal aberrations, or their subsequent exposures to medical irradiation, a potential mediator. In addition, atomic-bomb survivor radiation dose estimates have subsequently been updated and refined. We therefore re-estimated the dose response using the latest DS02R1 dose estimates and adjusting for smoking as well as for city and proximal–distal location at the time of exposure to the atomic bomb. Sex of the survivor, mother’s age around the time of conception, and approximate trimester of gestation at the time of exposure were also considered as explanatory variables and modifiers. Precision of the estimated dose response was slightly lower due to greater variability near zero in the updated dose estimates, but there was little change in evidence of a low-dose increase and still no suggestion of an overall increase across the entire dose range. Adjustment for smoking behavior led to a decline in background number of translocations (the dose–response intercept), but smoking did not interact with dose overall (across the entire dose range). Adjustment for medical irradiation did not alter the association between dose and translocation frequency. Sex, mother’s age, and trimester were not associated with number of translocations, nor did they interact with dose overall. Interactions with dose in the low-dose range could not be evaluated because of numerical instability.
Radiation effects on atherosclerosis in atomic bomb survivors: a cross-sectional study using structural equation modeling
Past reports indicated that total-body irradiation at low to moderate doses could be responsible for cardiovascular disease risks, but the mechanism remains unclear. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between radiation exposure and atherosclerosis, an underlying pathology of cardiovascular diseases, in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. We performed a cross-sectional study measuring 14 clinical-physiological atherosclerosis indicators during clinical exams from 2010 to 2014 in 3274 participants of the Adult Health Study cohort. Multivariable analyses were performed by using a structural equation model with latent factors representing underlying atherosclerotic pathologies: (1) arterial stiffness, (2) calcification, and (3) plaque as measured with indicators chosen a priori on the basis of clinical-physiological knowledge. Radiation was linearly associated with calcification (standardized coefficient per Gy 0.15, 95 % confidence interval: CI [0.070, 0.23]) and plaque (0.11, 95 % CI [0.029, 0.20]), small associations that were comparable to about 2 years of aging per Gy of radiation exposure, but not with arterial stiffness (0.036, 95 % CI [-0.025, 0.095]). The model fitted better and had narrower confidence intervals than separate ordinary regression models explaining individual indicators independently. The associations were less evident when the dose range was restricted to a maximum of 2 or 1 Gy. By combining individual clinical-physiological indicators that are correlated because of common, underlying atherosclerotic pathologies, we found a small, but significant association of radiation with atherosclerosis.
Longitudinal changes in red blood cell distribution width decades after radiation exposure in atomic–bomb survivors
Red blood cell distribution width (RDW), which generally increases with age, is a risk marker for morbidity and mortality in various diseases. We investigated the association between elevated RDW and prior radiation exposure by examining longitudinal RDW changes in 4204 atomic-bomb survivors over 15 years. A positive association was found between RDW and radiation dose, wherein RDW increased by 0·18%/Gy. This radiation-associated effect increased as the participants aged. Elevated RDW was also associated with higher all-cause mortality. The biological mechanisms underlying these observed associations merit further investigation.