Engineering topics

Richardson, I. G.

Publications and source records attributed to Richardson, I. G..

At least 19 records

NASA NTRS2019

Comparing Long-Duration Gamma-Ray Flares and High-Energy Solar Energetic Particles

Little is known about the origin of the high-energy and sustained emission from solar long-duration gamma-ray ﬂares (LDGRFs) identiﬁed with the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory, the Solar Maximum Mission, and now Fermi. Though the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) has identiﬁed dozens of ﬂares with LDGRF signatures, the nature of this phenomenon has been a challenge to explain due to both extreme energies and long durations. The highest-energy emission has generally been attributed to pion production from the interaction of 300 MeV protons with the ambient matter. The extended duration suggests that particle acceleration occurs over large volumes extending high in the corona, either from stochastic acceleration within large coronal loops or from back precipitation from coronal mass ejection–driven shocks. It is possible to test these models by making a direct comparison between the properties of the accelerated ion population producing the γ-ray emission derived from the Fermi/LAT observations and the characteristics of solar energetic particles (SEPs) measured by the Payload for Matter-Antimatter Exploration and Light Nuclei Astrophysics spacecraft in the energy range corresponding to the pion-related emission detected with Fermi. For 14 of these events, we compare the two populations—SEPs in space and the interacting particles at the Sun—and discuss the implications in terms of potential sources. Our analysis shows that the two proton numbers are poorly correlated, with their ratio spanning more than 5 orders of magnitude, suggesting that the back precipitation of shock-acceleration particles is unlikely to be the source of the F emission.

Nolfo, G. A. de↗

NASA NTRS2018

Prediction of Solar Energetic Particle Event Peak Proton Intensity Using a Simple Algorithm Based on CME Speed and Direction and Observations of Associated Solar Phenomena

We assess whether a formula obtained by Richardson et al. (2014,https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-014-0524-8) relating the peak intensity of 14- to 24-MeV protons in a solar energetic particle (SEP) event at 1 AU to the solar event location and the speed of the associated coronal mass ejection (CME) may be used in a scheme to predict the intensity of an SEP event at any location at this heliocentric distance. Starting with all 334 CMEs in the CCMC/SWRC DONKI database in October 2011 to July 2012, we use the CME speed and direction to predict the proton intensity at Earth and the two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft using this formula. Since most (85%)of these CMEs were not in fact associated with SEP events, many SEP events are predicted that are not actually observed. Such cases may be reduced by considering whether type II or type III radio emissions accompany the CMEs, or by selecting faster, wider CMEs. This method is also applied to predict the SEP intensities associated with 1,100 CMEs observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph during 1997-2006 in solar cycle 23. Various skill scores are calculated, which assess different aspects of the skill of the SEP predictions. We conclude that the Richardson et al. (2014) formula has potential as a simple empirical SEP intensity prediction tool.

coronal mass ejections↗

NASA NTRS2018

Solar Energetic Particle Events Observed by the PAMELA Mission

Despite the significant progress achieved in recent years, the physical mechanisms underlying the origin of solar energetic particles (SEPs) are still a matter of debate. The complex nature of both particle acceleration and transport poses challenges to developing a universal picture of SEP events that encompasses both the low-energy (from tens of keV to a few hundreds of MeV)observations made by space-based instruments and the GeV particles detected by the worldwide network of neutron monitors in ground-level enhancements (GLEs). The high-precision data collected by the Payload for Antimatter Matter Exploration and Light-nuclei Astrophysics (PAMELA) satellite experiment offer a unique opportunity to study the SEP fluxes between ∼80 MeV and a few GeV, significantly improving the characterization of the most energetic events. In particular, PAMELA can measure for the first time with good accuracy the spectral features at moderate and high energies, providing important constraints for current SEP models. In addition, the PAMELA observations allow the relationship between low and high-energy particles to be investigated, enabling a clearer view of the SEP origin. No qualitative distinction between the spectral shapes of GLE, sub-GLE and non-GLE events is observed, suggesting that GLEs are not a separate class, but are the subset of a continuous distribution of SEP events that are more intense at high energies. While the spectral forms found are to be consistent with diffusive shock acceleration theory, which predicts spectral rollovers at high energies that are attributed to particles escaping the shock region during acceleration, further work is required to explore the relative influences of acceleration and transport processes on SEP spectra.

Bruno, A.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection Observed at STEREO-A, Mars, Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, Saturn,and New Horizons En Route to Pluto: Comparison of Its Forbush Decreases at 1.4, 3.1, and 9.9 AU

We discuss observations of the journey throughout the Solar System of a large interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) that was ejected at the Sun on 14 October 2014. The ICME hit Mars on 17 October, as observed by the Mars Express, Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN Mission (MAVEN), Mars Odyssey, and Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) missions, 44 h before the encounter of the planet with the Siding-Spring comet, for which the space weather context is provided. It reached comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, which was perfectly aligned with the Sun and Mars at 3.1 AU, as observed by Rosetta on 22 October. The ICME was also detected by STEREO-A on 16 October at 1 AU, and by Cassini in the solar wind around Saturn on the 12 November at 9.9 AU. Fortuitously, the New Horizons spacecraft was also aligned with the direction of the ICME at 31.6 AU. We investigate whether this ICME has a nonambiguous signature at New Horizons. A potential detection of this ICME by Voyager 2 at 110-111 AU is also discussed. The multispacecraft observations allow the derivation of certain properties of the ICME, such as its large angular extension of at least 116deg, its speed as a function of distance, and its magnetic field structure at four locations from 1 to 10 AU. Observations of the speed data allow two different solar wind propagation models to be validated. Finally, we compare the Forbush decreases (transient decreases followed by gradual recoveries in the galactic cosmic ray intensity) due to the passage of this ICME at Mars, comet 67P, and Saturn.

Witasse, O.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Relativistic Electron Response to the Combined Magnetospheric Impact of a Coronal Mass Ejection Overlapping with a High-Speed Stream: Van Allen Probes Observations

During early November 2013, the magnetosphere experienced concurrent driving by a coronal mass ejection (CME) during an ongoing high-speed stream (HSS) event. The relativistic electron response to these two kinds of drivers, i.e., HSS and CME, is typically different, with the former often leading to a slower buildup of electrons at larger radial distances, while the latter energizing electrons rapidly with flux enhancements occurring closer to the Earth. We present a detailed analysis of the relativistic electron response including radial profiles of phase space density as observed by both Magnetic Electron and Ion Sensor (MagEIS) and Relativistic Electron Proton Telescope instruments on the Van Allen Probes mission. Data from the MagEIS instrument establish the behavior of lower energy (<1 MeV) electrons which span both intermediary and seed populations during electron energization. Measurements characterizing the plasma waves and magnetospheric electric and magnetic fields during this period are obtained by the Electric and Magnetic Field Instrument Suite and Integrated Science instrument on board Van Allen Probes, Search Coil Magnetometer and Flux Gate Magnetometer instruments on board Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms, and the low-altitude Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites. These observations suggest that during this time period, both radial transport and local in situ processes are involved in the energization of electrons. The energization attributable to radial diffusion is most clearly evident for the lower energy (<1 MeV) electrons, while the effects of in situ energization by interaction of chorus waves are prominent in the higher-energy electrons.

Magnetosphere↗

NASA NTRS2012

Toward the Probabilistic Forecasting of High-latitude GPS Phase Scintillation

The phase scintillation index was obtained from L1 GPS data collected with the Canadian High Arctic Ionospheric Network (CHAIN) during years of extended solar minimum 2008-2010. Phase scintillation occurs predominantly on the dayside in the cusp and in the nightside auroral oval. We set forth a probabilistic forecast method of phase scintillation in the cusp based on the arrival time of either solar wind corotating interaction regions (CIRs) or interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). CIRs on the leading edge of high-speed streams (HSS) from coronal holes are known to cause recurrent geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances that can be forecast one or several solar rotations in advance. Superposed epoch analysis of phase scintillation occurrence showed a sharp increase in scintillation occurrence just after the arrival of high-speed solar wind and a peak associated with weak to moderate CMEs during the solar minimum. Cumulative probability distribution functions for the phase scintillation occurrence in the cusp are obtained from statistical data for days before and after CIR and ICME arrivals. The probability curves are also specified for low and high (below and above median) values of various solar wind plasma parameters. The initial results are used to demonstrate a forecasting technique on two example periods of CIRs and ICMEs.

scintillation↗

NASA NTRS2012

Using Statistical Multivariable Models to Understand the Relationship Between Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejecta and Magnetic Flux Ropes

In-situ measurements of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) display a wide range of properties. A distinct subset, "magnetic clouds" (MCs), are readily identifiable by a smooth rotation in an enhanced magnetic field, together with an unusually low solar wind proton temperature. In this study, we analyze Ulysses spacecraft measurements to systematically investigate five possible explanations for why some ICMEs are observed to be MCs and others are not: i) An observational selection effect; that is, all ICMEs do in fact contain MCs, but the trajectory of the spacecraft through the ICME determines whether the MC is actually encountered; ii) interactions of an erupting flux rope (PR) with itself or between neighboring FRs, which produce complex structures in which the coherent magnetic structure has been destroyed; iii) an evolutionary process, such as relaxation to a low plasma-beta state that leads to the formation of an MC; iv) the existence of two (or more) intrinsic initiation mechanisms, some of which produce MCs and some that do not; or v) MCs are just an easily identifiable limit in an otherwise corntinuous spectrum of structures. We apply quantitative statistical models to assess these ideas. In particular, we use the Akaike information criterion (AIC) to rank the candidate models and a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) to uncover any intrinsic clustering of the data. Using a logistic regression, we find that plasma-beta, CME width, and the ratio O(sup 7) / O(sup 6) are the most significant predictor variables for the presence of an MC. Moreover, the propensity for an event to be identified as an MC decreases with heliocentric distance. These results tend to refute ideas ii) and iii). GMM clustering analysis further identifies three distinct groups of ICMEs; two of which match (at the 86% level) with events independently identified as MCs, and a third that matches with non-MCs (68 % overlap), Thus, idea v) is not supported. Choosing between ideas i) and iv) is more challenging, since they may effectively be indistinguishable from one another by a single in-situ spacecraft. We offer some suggestions on how future studies may address this.

Riley, P.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Magnetic Field-Line Lengths in Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections Inferred from Energetic Electron Events

About one quarter of the observed interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are characterized by enhanced magnetic fields that smoothly rotate in direction over timescales of about 10-50 hr. These ICMEs have the appearance of magnetic flux ropes and are known as "magnetic clouds" (MCs). The total lengths of MC field lines can be determined using solar energetic particles of known speeds when the solar release times and the I AU onset times of the particles are known. A recent examination of about 30 near-relativistic (NR) electron events in and near 8 MCs showed no obvious indication that the field-line lengths were longest near the MC boundaries and shortest at the MC axes or outside the MCs, contrary to the expectations for a flux rope. Here we use the impulsive beamed NR electron events observed with the Electron Proton and Alpha Monitor instrument on the Advanced Composition Explorer spacecraft and type III radio bursts observed on the Wind spacecraft to determine the field-line lengths inside ICMEs included in the catalog of Richardson & Cane. In particular, we extend this technique to ICMEs that are not MCs and compare the field-line lengths inside MCs and non-MC ICMEs with those in the ambient solar wind outside the ICMEs. No significant differences of field-line lengths are found among MCs, ICMEs, and the ambient solar wind. The estimated number of ICME field-line turns is generally smaller than those deduced for flux-rope model fits to MCs. We also find cases in which the electron injections occur in solar active regions CARs) distant from the source ARs of the ICMEs, supporting CME models that require extensive coronal magnetic reconnection with surrounding fields. The field-line lengths are found to be statistically longer for the NR electron events classified as ramps and interpreted as shock injections somewhat delayed from the type III bursts. The path lengths of the remaining spike and pulse electron events are compared with model calculations of solar wind field-line lengths resulting from turbulence and found to be in good agreement.

Kahler, S. W.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Geoeffectiveness (D (sub st) and K (sub p)) of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections During 1995-2009 and Implications for Storm Forecasting

We summarize the geoeffectiveness (based on the Dst and Kp indices) of the more than 300 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) that passed the Earth during 1996-2009, encompassing solar cycle 23. We subsequently estimate the probability that an ICME will generate geomagnetic activity that exceeds certain thresholds of Dst or Kp, including the NOAA "G" storm scale, based on maximum values of the southward magnetic field component (Bs), the solar wind speed (V), and the y component (Ey) of the solar wind convective electric field E = -V x B, in the ICME or sheath ahead of the ICME. Consistent with previous studies, the geoeffectiveness of an ICME is correlated with Bs or Ey approx.= VBs in the ICME or sheath, indicating that observations from a solar wind monitor upstream of the Earth are likely to provide the most reliable forecasts of the activity associated with an approaching ICME. There is also a general increase in geoeffectiveness with ICME speed, though the overall event-to-event correlation is weaker than for Bs and Ey. Nevertheless, using these results, we suggest that the speed of an ICME approaching the Earth inferred, for example, from routine remote sensing by coronagraphs on spacecraft well separated from the Earth or by all-sky imagers, could be used to estimate the likely geoeffectiveness of the ICME (our "comprehensive" ICME database provides a proxy for ICMEs identified in this way) with a longer lead time than may be possible using an upstream monitor

Richardson, I. G.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensity Response to Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections/Magnetic Clouds in 1995-2009

We summarize the response of the galactic cosmic ray (CGR) intensity to the passage of the more than 300 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and their associated shocks that passed the Earth during 1995-2009, a period that encompasses the whole of Solar Cycle 23. In approx.80% of cases, the GCR intensity decreased during the passage of these structures, i.e., a "Forbush decrease" occurred, while in approx.10% there was no significant change. In the remaining cases, the GCR intensity increased. Where there was an intensity decrease, minimum intensity was observed inside the ICME in approx.90% of these events. The observations confirm the role of both post-shock regions and ICMEs in the generation of these decreases, consistent with many previous studies, but contrary to the conclusion of Reames, Kahler, and Tylka (Astrophys. 1. Lett. 700, L199, 2009) who, from examining a subset of ICMEs with flux-rope-like magnetic fields (magnetic clouds) argued that these are "open structures" that allow free access of particles including GCRs to their interior. In fact, we find that magnetic clouds are more likely to participate in the deepest GCR decreases than ICMEs that are not magnetic clouds.

Richardson, I. G.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Solar Drivers of 11-yr and Long-Term Cosmic Ray Modulation

In the current paradigm for the modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), diffusion is taken to be the dominant process during solar maxima while drift dominates at minima. Observations during the recent solar minimum challenge the pre-eminence of drift: at such times. In 2009, the approx.2 GV GCR intensity measured by the Newark neutron monitor increased by approx.5% relative to its maximum value two cycles earlier even though the average tilt angle in 2009 was slightly larger than that in 1986 (approx.20deg vs. approx.14deg), while solar wind B was significantly lower (approx.3.9 nT vs. approx.5.4 nT). A decomposition of the solar wind into high-speed streams, slow solar wind, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs; including postshock flows) reveals that the Sun transmits its message of changing magnetic field (diffusion coefficient) to the heliosphere primarily through CMEs at solar maximum and high-speed streams at solar minimum. Long-term reconstructions of solar wind B are in general agreement for the approx. 1900-present interval and can be used to reliably estimate GCR intensity over this period. For earlier epochs, however, a recent Be-10-based reconstruction covering the past approx. 10(exp 4) years shows nine abrupt and relatively short-lived drops of B to < or approx.= 0 nT, with the first of these corresponding to the Sporer minimum. Such dips are at variance with the recent suggestion that B has a minimum or floor value of approx.2.8 nT. A floor in solar wind B implies a ceiling in the GCR intensity (a permanent modulation of the local interstellar spectrum) at a given energy/rigidity. The 30-40% increase in the intensity of 2.5 GV electrons observed by Ulysses during the recent solar minimum raises an interesting paradox that will need to be resolved.

Cliver, E. W.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Near-Earth Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections During Solar Cycle 23 (1996 - 2009): Catalog and Summary of Properties

In a previous study (Cane and Richardson, J. Geophys. Res. l08(A4), SSH6-1, we investigated the occurrence of interplanetary coronal mass ejections in the near-Earth solar wind during 1996 - 2002, corresponding to the increasing and maximum phases of solar cycle 23, and provided a "comprehensive" catalog of these events. In this paper, we present a revised and updated catalog of the approx. =300 near-Earth ICMEs in 1996-2009, encompassing the complete cycle 23, and summarize their basic properties and geomagnetic effects. In particular, solar wind .. composition and charge state observations are now considered when identifying the ICMEs. In general, these additional data confirm the earlier identifications based predominantly on other solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters. However, the boundaries of ICME-like plasma based on charge state/composition data may deviate significantly from those based on conventional plasma/magnetic field parameters. Furthermore, the much studied "magnetic clouds", with flux-rope-like magnetic field configurations, may form just a substructure of the total ICME interval.

Richardson, I. G.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Interplanetary Circumstances of Quasi-Perpendicular Interplanetary Shocks in 1996-2005

The angle (theta(sub Bn)) between the normal to an interplanetary shock front and the upstream magnetic field direction, though often thought of as a property "of the shock," is also determined by the configuration of the magnetic field immediately upstream of the shock. We investigate the interplanetary circumstances of 105 near-Earth quasi-perpendicular shocks during 1996-2005 identified by theta(sub Bn) greater than or equal to 80 degrees and/or by evidence of shock drift particle acceleration. Around 87% of these shocks were driven by interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs); the remainder were probably the forward shocks of corotating interaction regions. For around half of the shocks, the upstream field was approximately perpendicular to the radial direction, either east-west or west-east or highly inclined to the ecliptic. Such field directions will give quasi-perpendicular configurations for radially propagating shocks. Around 30% of the shocks were propagating through, or closely followed, ICMEs at the time of observation. Another quarter were propagating through the heliospheric plasma sheet (HPS), and a further quarter occurred in slow solar wind that did not have characteristics of the HPS. Around 11% were observed in high-speed streams, and 7% in the sheaths following other shocks. The fraction of shocks found in high-speed streams is around a third of that expected based on the fraction of the time when such streams were observed at Earth. Quasi-perpendicular shocks are found traveling through ICMEs around 2-3 times more frequently than expected. In addition, shocks propagating through ICMEs are more likely to have larger values of theta(sub Bn) than shocks outside ICMEs.

Richardson, I. G.↗

NASA NTRS2009

The Near-Earth Distribution of Fe/O for Solar Energetic Particle Events: Is It Bimodal?

Pallavicini et al. (1977) suggested that there are two separate classes of solar soft X-ray events, impulsive and gradual. Cane et al. (1986) suggested that there might be two corresponding classes of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events. For both soft X-ray events and for SEP events, the fundamental question was whether there were two distinct classes of events or, alternatively, whether there was a continuum of event types with impulsive and gradual events at opposite ends of the distribution. Reames (1988) published results showing a bimodal distribution of Fe/O, which clearly suggested that there really are two distinct event types. Reames (2002) went further and suggested that impulsive events and gradual events were caused by two different types of solar events at the Sun corresponding to two different magnetic topologies. The energetic particles seen near earth from the two different event classes were considered to be accelerated in solar flares for impulsive events and by CME-driven shocks for gradual events. The Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft was launched in 1997 and has made observations of SEP events over the most recent solar activity cycle. We will examine data from the SIS and ULEIS instruments on ACE to see if the bimodal distribution of Fe/O is also evident in that data.

vonRosenvinge, Tycho↗

NASA NTRS2008

The Solar Energetic Particle Event of December 14, 2006

We report on observations of a solar energetic particle event by instruments on five different spacecraft: the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), STEREO A and B, WIND, and GOES II. The event began with a class X1.5 .soft x-ray flare in AR930 on December 14 at 22:15 UT. At this time the two STEREO spacecraft were located outside the Earth's magnetosphere and were heading for their first lunar swing-by on December 15. The x-ray event was located on the sun at W46, a longitude which is nominally well-connected magnetically to the Earth. An interplanetary shock, associated with an earlier X3.4 event on December 13 (also from AR930), passed the Earth on December 14 at approx.13:56 (time at ACE). The corresponding magnetic cloud arrived at approx.22 UT on December 14, close to the time of the onset of the particle event associated with the X1.5 flare, and extended until approx.08 UT on December 15. The intensity of approx.14 MeV protons at STEREO A shows three dips by factors of approx.10 or more during the early stages of this event while the spacecraft was within the magnetic cloud. Similar dips are seen for protons to at least 100 MeV. In principle, these dips could have been caused by changes in the magnetic field direction with respect to the particle telescope's field of view while viewing a beamed particle distribution. However, this possibility can be ruled out because the magnetic field at the spacecraft shows no evidence of such directional variations, and similar particle intensity dips were seen by instruments on other spacecraft in the near-Earth solar wind. We shall present evidence that the dips were actually associated with varying magnetic connection to the Sun within the magnetic cloud. These dips were not observed at GOES II, suggesting they were somehow smoothed out by passage into the magnetosphere.

vonRosenvinge, T. T.↗

NASA NTRS2007

MeV Ion Anisotropies in the Vicinity of Interplanetary Shocks

The anticipated signatures of interplanetary shock acceleration to be found in energetic ion anisotropies in the vicinity of interplanetary shocks include near-isotropic particle distributions consistent with of diffusive shock acceleration, "pancake" distributions indicative of shock drift acceleration, and flow reversals, suggestive of a particle acceleration region passing by the observing spacecraft. In practice, while clear examples of these phenomena exist, more typically, particle anisotropies near interplanetary shocks show considerable variation in time and space, both in individual events and from event to event. We investigate the properties of MeV/n ions in the vicinity of a number of interplanetary shocks associated with the largest energetic particle events of solar cycle 23, and previous cycles, including their intensity-time profiles, anisotropies, and relationship with local solar wind structures, using observations from the IMP 8, ISEE-3, Helios 1 and 3 spacecraft. The aim is to help to understand the role of shocks in major solar energetic particle events.

Richardson, I. G.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections During 1996 - 2007

Interplanetary coronal mass ejections, the interplanetary counterparts of coronal mass ejections at the Sun, are the major drivers of interplanetary shocks in the heliosphere, and are associated with modulations of the galactic cosmic ray intensity, both short term (Forbush decreases caused by the passage of the shock, post-shock sheath, and ICME), and possibly with longer term modulation. Using several in-situ signatures of ICMEs, including plasma temperature, and composition, magnetic fields, and cosmic ray modulations, made by near-Earth spacecraft, we have compiled a "comprehensive" list of ICMEs passing the Earth since 1996, encompassing solar cycle 23. We summarize the properties of these ICMEs, such as their occurrence rate, speeds and other parameters, the fraction of ICMEs that are classic magnetic clouds, and their association with solar energetic particle events, halo CMEs, interplanetary shocks, geomagnetic storms, shocks and cosmic ray decreases.

Richardson, I. G.↗

NASA NTRS2006

On the Rates of Coronal Mass Ejections: Remote Solar and In Situ Observations

We compare the rates of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as inferred from remote solar observations and interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) as inferred from in situ observations at both 1 AU and Ulyssses from 1996 through 2004. We also distinguish between those ICMEs that contain a magnetic cloud (MC) and those that do not. While the rates of CMEs and ICMEs track each other well at solar minimum, they diverge significantly in early 1998, during the ascending phase of the solar cycle, with the remote solar observations yielding approximately 20 times more events than are seen at 1 AU. This divergence persists through 2004. A similar divergence occurs between MCs and non-MC ICMEs. We argue that these divergences are due to the birth of midlatitude active regions, which are the sites of a distinct population of CMEs, only partially intercepted by Earth, and we present a simple geometric argument showing that the CME and ICME rates are consistent with one another. We also acknowledge contributions from (1) an increased rate of high-latitude CMEs and (2) focusing effects from the global solar field. While our analysis, coupled with numerical modeling results, generally supports the interpretation that whether one observes a MC within an ICME is sensitive to the trajectory of the spacecraft through the ICME (i.e., an observational selection effect), one result directly contradicts it. Specifically, we find no systematic offset between the latitudinal origin of ICMEs that contain MCs at 1 AU in the ecliptic plane and that of those that do not.

Riley, Pete↗