Prediction of Solar Energetic Particle Event Peak Proton Intensity Using a Simple Algorithm Based on CME Speed and Direction and Observations of Associated Solar Phenomena

Richardson, I. G.; Markus, M. L.; Thompson, B. J.

Home/Archive/NASA NTRS

NASA NTRS · 20190001813

Prediction of Solar Energetic Particle Event Peak Proton Intensity Using a Simple Algorithm Based on CME Speed and Direction and Observations of Associated Solar Phenomena

Richardson, I. G.·Markus, M. L.·Thompson, B. J.

View original source ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

We assess whether a formula obtained by Richardson et al. (2014,https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-014-0524-8) relating the peak intensity of 14- to 24-MeV protons in a solar energetic particle (SEP) event at 1 AU to the solar event location and the speed of the associated coronal mass ejection (CME) may be used in a scheme to predict the intensity of an SEP event at any location at this heliocentric distance. Starting with all 334 CMEs in the CCMC/SWRC DONKI database in October 2011 to July 2012, we use the CME speed and direction to predict the proton intensity at Earth and the two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft using this formula. Since most (85%)of these CMEs were not in fact associated with SEP events, many SEP events are predicted that are not actually observed. Such cases may be reduced by considering whether type II or type III radio emissions accompany the CMEs, or by selecting faster, wider CMEs. This method is also applied to predict the SEP intensities associated with 1,100 CMEs observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph during 1997-2006 in solar cycle 23. Various skill scores are calculated, which assess different aspects of the skill of the SEP predictions. We conclude that the Richardson et al. (2014) formula has potential as a simple empirical SEP intensity prediction tool.

Explore related subjects

coronal mass ejections solar energetic particle intensity prediction solar radio emissions

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeX RIS

Richardson, I. G., Markus, M. L., Thompson, B. J.. 2018-11-26. Prediction of Solar Energetic Particle Event Peak Proton Intensity Using a Simple Algorithm Based on CME Speed and Direction and Observations of Associated Solar Phenomena. https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20190001813

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related reports

NASA NTRS2015

The Peculiar Behavior of Halo Coronal Mass Ejections in Solar Cycle 24

We report on the remarkable finding that the halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in cycle 24 are more abundant than in cycle 23, although the sunspot number in cycle 24 has dropped by approx. 40%. We also find that the distribution of halo-CME source locations is different in cycle 24: the longitude distribution of halos is much flatter with the number of halos originating at a central meridian distance greater than or equal to 60deg twice as large as that in cycle 23. On the other hand, the average speed and associated soft X-ray flare size are the same in both cycles, suggesting that the ambient medium into which the CMEs are ejected is significantly different. We suggest that both the higher abundance and larger central meridian longitudes of halo CMEs can be explained as a consequence of the diminished total pressure in the heliosphere in cycle 24. The reduced total pressure allows CMEs to expand more than usual making them appear as halos.

coronal mass ejections↗

NASA NTRS2014

Anomalous Expansion of Coronal Mass Ejections During Solar Cycle 24 and Its Space Weather Implications

The familiar correlation between the speed and angular width of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is also found in solar cycle 24, but the regression line has a larger slope: for a given CME speed, cycle 24 CMEs are significantly wider than those in cycle 23. The slope change indicates a significant change in the physical state of the heliosphere, due to the weak solar activity. The total pressure in the heliosphere (magnetic + plasma) is reduced by approximately 40%, which leads to the anomalous expansion of CMEs explaining the increased slope. The excess CME expansion contributes to the diminished effectiveness of CMEs in producing magnetic storms during cycle 24, both because the magnetic content of the CMEs is diluted and also because of the weaker ambient fields. The reduced magnetic field in the heliosphere may contribute to the lack of solar energetic particles accelerated to very high energies during this cycle.

coronal mass ejections↗

NASA NTRS2013

Obscuration of Flare Emission by an Eruptive Prominence

We report on the eclipsing of microwave flare emission by an eruptive prominence from a neighboring region as observed by the Nobeyama Radioheliograph at 17 GHz. The obscuration of the flare emission appears as a dimming feature in the microwave flare light curve. We use the dimming feature to derive the temperature of the prominence and the distribution of heating along the length of the filament. We find that the prominence is heated to a temperature above the quiet Sun temperature at 17 GHz. The duration of the dimming is the time taken by the eruptive prominence in passing over the flaring region. We also find evidence for the obscuration in EUV images obtained by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission.

coronal mass ejections↗