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Stolarski, Richard S.

Publications and source records attributed to Stolarski, Richard S..

At least 73 records · Page 4

The atmospheric effects of stratospheric aircraft: A fourth program report

This document presents the fourth report from the Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft (AESA) component of NASA's High-Speed Research Program (HSRP). Market and technology considerations continue to provide an impetus for high-speed civil transport research. A recent AESA interim assessment report and a review of that report have shown that considerable uncertainty still exists about the possible impact of aircraft on the atmosphere. The AESA has been designed to develop the body of scientific knowledge necessary for the evaluation of the impact of stratospheric aircraft on the atmosphere. The first Program report presented the basic objectives and plans for AESA. This fourth report comes after the interim assessment and sets forth directions for the 1995 assessment at the end of AESA Phase 1. It also sets forth the goals and directions for AESA Phase 2, as reported at the 1994 Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project (AEAP) annual meeting held in June. The focus of the Phase 2 effort is to obtain the best possible closure on the outstanding problems identified in the interim assessment and NASA/NRC review. Topics discussed in this report include how high-speed civil transports (HSCT) might affect stratospheric ozone, emissions scenarios and databases to assess potential atmospheric effects from HSCT's, calculated results from 2-D zonal mean models using emissions data, engine trace constituent measurements.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗

NASA atmospheric effects of aviation projects: Status and plans

NASA's Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project is developing a scientific basis for assessment of the atmospheric impact of subsonic and supersonic aviation. Issues addressed include predicted ozone changes and climatic impact, and related uncertainties. A primary goal is to assist assessments of United Nations scientific organizations and, hence, consideration of emission standards by the International Civil Aviation Organization. Project focus is on simulation of atmospheric processes by computer models, but studies of aircraft operations, laboratory studies, and remote and in situ observations of chemical, dynamic, and radiative processes are also included.

Wesoky, Howard L.↗

Evolution of chemically processed air parcels in the lower stratosphere

Aircraft, ground-based, and satellite measurements indicate large concentrations of ClO in the lower stratosphere in and near the polar vortex. The amount of local ozone depletion caused by these large ClO concentrations will depend on the relative rates of ozone loss and ClO recovery. ClO recovery occurs when NO(x), from HNO3 photolysis, reacts with ClO to form ClONO2. We show that air parcels with large amounts of ClO will experience a subsequent ozone depletion that depends on the solar zenith angle. When the solar zenith angle is large in the middle of winter, the recovery of the ClO concentration in the parcel is slow relative to ozone depletion. In the spring, when the solar zenith angle is smaller, the ClO recovery is much faster. After ClO recovery, the chlorine chemistry has not returned to normal. The ClO has been converted to ClONO2. ClO production from further encounters with PSCs will be limited by the heterogeneous reaction of ClONO2 with water. Large ozone depletions, of the type seen in the Antarctic, occur only if there is significant irreversible denitrification in the air parcel.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗

The atmospheric effects of stratospheric aircraft: A third program report

A third report from the Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft (AESA) component of NASA's High-Speed Research Program (HSRP) is presented. Market and technology considerations continue to provide an impetus for high-speed civil transport research. A recent United Nations Environment Program scientific assessment showed that considerable uncertainty still exists about the possible impact of aircraft on the atmosphere. The AESA was designed to develop the body of scientific knowledge necessary for the evaluation of the impact of stratospheric aircraft on the atmosphere. The first Program report presented the basic objectives and plans for AESA. This third report marks the midpoint of the program and presents the status of the ongoing research on the impact of stratospheric aircraft on the atmosphere as reported at the third annual AESA Program meeting in June 1993. The focus of the program is on predicted atmospheric changes resulting from projected HSCT emissions. Topics reported on cover how high-speed civil transports (HSCT) might affect stratospheric ozone, emissions scenarios and databases to assess potential atmospheric effects from HSCT's, calculated results from 2-D zonal mean models using emissions data, engine trace constituent measurements, and exhaust plume/aircraft wake vortex interactions.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗

The atmospheric effects of stratospheric aircraft

This document presents a second report from the Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft (AESA) component of NASA's High-Speed Research Program (HSRP). This document presents a second report from the Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft (AESA) component of NASA's High Speed Research Program (HSRP). Market and technology considerations continue to provide an impetus for high-speed civil transport research. A recent United Nations Environment Program scientific assessment has shown that considerable uncertainty still exists about the possible impact of aircraft on the atmosphere. The AESA was designed to develop the body of scientific knowledge necessary for the evaluation of the impact of stratospheric aircraft on the atmosphere. The first Program report presented the basic objectives and plans for AESA. This second report presents the status of the ongoing research as reported by the principal investigators at the second annual AESA Program meeting in May 1992: Laboratory studies are probing the mechanism responsible for many of the heterogeneous reactions that occur on stratospheric particles. Understanding how the atmosphere redistributes aircraft exhaust is critical to our knowing where the perturbed air will go and for how long it will remain in the stratosphere. The assessment of fleet effects is dependent on the ability to develop scenarios which correctly simulate fleet operations.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗

Heterogeneous conversion of N2O5 to HNO3 on background stratospheric aerosols - Comparisons of model results with data

The effects of heterogeneous processing by a parameterized lower stratospheric sulfate aerosol layer on model calculations were examined using a 2D photochemical model. Model results were compared with zonally averaged LIMS data on HNO3 and NO2 and in situ measurements of NO, NO(y), and ClO, taken by the ER-2 aircraft. The results obtained are contradictory: some comparisons favor heterogeneous chemistry, and some do not. It is suggested that the assumptions made to parameterize the sulfate aerosol chemistry result in a rate of heterogeneous processing that is too vigorous.

Considine, David B.↗

Two-dimensional model calculation of fluorine-containing reservoir species in the stratosphere

Two-dimensional model calculations have been carried out of the distributions of the fluorine-containing reservoir species HF, CF2O, and CFClO. HF constitutes the largest fluorine reservoir in the stratosphere, but CF2O also makes an important contribution to the inorganic fluorine budget. CFClO amounts are most important in the tropical lower stratosphere. HF amounts increase with altitude throughout the stratosphere, while those of CF2O and CFClO fall off above their mixing ratio peaks due to photolysis. The model is in good qualitative agreement with observed vertical profiles of HF and CF2O but tends to underestimate the total column of HF. The calculated CFClO distribution is in good agreement with the very limited data. The disagreement in the HF columns is likely due to small inaccuracies in the model's treatment of lower stratospheric photolysis of chlorofluorocarbons. The model results support the suggestion that CF2O may be heterogeneously converted to HF on the surface of polar stratospheric cloud particles. The model results also suggest that the quantum yield for photolysis of CF2O is near unity.

Kaye, Jack A.↗

Total ozone trends deduced from Nimbus 7 TOMS data

The Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) on the Nimbus 7 satellite has been measuring the total column amount of ozone over the globe for more than 11 years. Recent improvements in the data analysis have led to a technique for determining and removing drift in the calibration such that the data at the end of the record are precise to + or - 1.3 percent (2-sigma) relative to the data at the beginning of the record. A statistical model, including terms for seasonal variation, linear trend, quasi-biennial oscillation, solar cycle and second-order autoregressive noise has been fit to the TOMS time series of total ozone data. The linear trend obtained when this statistical model is fit to the TOMS data averaged between 65 N and 65 S latitudes is -0.26 + or - 0.14 percent/year or -3 percent over the 11.6 year time period from November 1978 to May 1990. The trend is near zero (0.0002 + or - 0.2 percent/year) at the equator and increases toward both poles.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗

Impact of interannual variability (1979-1986) of transport and temperature on ozone as computed using a two-dimensional photochemical model

Values of the monthly mean heating rates and the residual circulation characteristics were calculated using NMC data for temperature and the solar backscattered UV ozone for the period between 1979 and 1986. The results were used in a two-dimensional photochemical model in order to examine the effects of temperature and residual circulation on the interannual variability of ozone. It was found that the calculated total ozone was more sensitive to variations in interannual residual circulation than in the interannual temperature. The magnitude of the modeled ozone variability was found to be similar to the observed variability, but the observed and modeled year-to-year deviations were, for the most part, uncorrelated, due to the fact that the model did not account for most of the QBO forcing and for some of the observed tropospheric changes.

Jackman, Charles H.↗

Ozone and temperature trends

An update of the extensive reviews of the state of knowledge of measured ozone trends published in the Report of the International Ozone Trends Panel is presented. The update contains a review of progress since these reports, including reviewing of the ozone records, in most cases through March 1991. Also included are some new, unpublished reanalyses of these records including a complete reevaluation of 29 stations located in the former Soviet Union. The major new advance in knowledge of the measured ozone trend is the existence of independently calibrated satellite data records from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAG) instruments. These confirm many of the findings, originally derived from the Dobson record, concerning northern mid-latitude changes in ozone. We now have results from several instruments, whereas the previously reported changes were dependent on the calibration of a single instrument. This update will compare the ozone records from many different instruments to determine whether or not they provide a consistent picture of the ozone change that has occurred in the atmosphere. The update also briefly considers the problem of stratospheric temperature change. As in previous reports, this problem received significantly less attention, and the report is not nearly as complete. This area needs more attention in the future.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗

The 1989 Antarctic ozone hole as observed by TOMS

In 1989 the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) aboard the Nimbus 7 satellite observed the springtime decrease in Antarctic total ozone for the 11th consecutive year. The 1989 minimum values of total ozone measured by TOMS declined throughout the month of September at a rate nearly identical to 1987. The area of the ozone hole as defined by the 220 DU contour grew rapidly during early September. It reached a mid-September peak of 7.5 percent of the Southern Hemisphere, or 19 million square kilometers, essentially the same as observed in 1987. From mid-October through November 1989, minimum polar total ozone values increased and the area within the 220 DU contour decreased more rapidly than during the comparable period of 1987. The more rapid erosion of the 1989 ozone hole resulted from strong wave number one perturbations of the vortex dynamics in late October.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗

Global three-dimensional constituent fields derived from profile data

The success of three-dimensional simulations of stratospheric constituent variability depends critically on the initialization of the constituent fields within the global model. This paper describes a technique for generating global three-dimensional fields from vertical constituent proflies. The technique uses potential vorticity (q) and potential temperature (theta) to map the profiles onto the global domain. The profiles used here are obtained from a two-dimensional model calculation that reproduces the relationship between theta, q, N2O and O3 observed during the Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition. The method is verified by comparison with satellite data, aircraft data, and model simulations.

Douglass, Anne R.↗

Three dimensional simulation of hydrogen chloride and hydrogen fluoride during the Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition

Simulations of the evolution of stratospheric distributions of hydrogen chloride (HCl) and hydrogen fluoride (HF) have been carried out for the period of the Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition (AASE) with a three-dimensional chemistry-transport model. Simulations were performed assuming only homogeneous gas phase chemistry for HF and both homogeneous gas phase and heterogeneous chemistry for HCl. Results show heterogeneous loss of HCl is needed to provide agreement with infrared column measurements. Estimates of the impact of heterogeneous loss on the global HCl distribution are obtained from the model. Reductions of HCl due to heterogeneous loss are calculated to be localized to regions of high vorticity, even after more than a month of integration.

Kaye, Jack A.↗

Fast two-dimensional model

A two dimensional (altitude and latitude) model of the atmosphere is used to investigate problems relating to the variability of the dynamics and temperature of the atmosphere on the ozone distribution, solar cycle variations of atmospheric constituents, the sensitivity of model results to tropospheric trace gas sources, and assessment computations of changes in ozone related to manmade influences. In a comparison between two dimensional model results in which the odd nitrogen family was transported together and model results in which the odd nitrogen species was transported separately, it was found that the family approximations are adequate for perturbation scenario calculations.

Jackman, Charles H.↗

Stratospheric General Circulation with Chemistry Model (SGCCM)

In the past two years constituent transport and chemistry experiments have been performed using both simple single constituent models and more complex reservoir species models. Winds for these experiments have been taken from the data assimilation effort, Stratospheric Data Analysis System (STRATAN).

Rood, Richard B.↗

Theoretical modelling and meteorological analysis for the AASE mission

Providing real time constituent data analysis and potential vorticity computations in support of the Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Experiment (AASE) is discussed. National Meteorological Center (NMC) meteorological data and potential vorticity computations derived from NMC data are projected onto aircraft coordinates and provided to the investigators in real time. Balloon and satellite constituent data are composited into modified Lagrangian mean coordinates. Various measurements are intercompared, trends deduced and reconstructions of constituent fields performed.

Schoeberl, Mark R.↗

Analysis of stratospheric ozone, temperature, and minor constituent data

The objective of this research is to use available satellite measurements of temperature and constituent concentrations to test the conceptual picture of stratospheric chemistry and transport. This was originally broken down into two sub-goals: first, to use the constituent data to search for critical tests of our understanding of stratospheric chemistry and second, to examine constituent transport processes emphasizing interactions with chemistry on various time scales. A third important goal which has evolved is to use the available solar backscattered ultraviolet (SBUV) and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data from Nimbus 7 to describe the morphology of recent changes in Antarctic and global ozone with emphasis on searching for constraints to theories. The major effort now being pursued relative to the two original goals is our effort as a theoretical team for the Arctic Airborne Stratospheric Expedition (AASE). Our effort for the AASE is based on the 3D transport and chemistry model at Goddard. Our goal is to use this model to place the results from the mission data in a regional and global context. Specifically, we set out to make model runs starting in late December and running through March of 1989, both with and without heterogeneous chemistry. The transport is to be carried out using dynamical fields from a 4D data assimilation model being developed under separate funding from this task. We have successfully carried out a series of single constituent transport experiments. One of the things demonstrated by these runs was the difficulty in obtaining observed low N2O abundances in the vortex without simultaneously obtaining very high ozone values. Because the runs start in late December, this difficulty arises in the attempt to define consistent initial conditions for the 3D model. To accomplish a consistent set of initial conditions, we are using the 2D photochemistry-transport model of Jackman and Douglass and mapping in potential temperature, potential vorticity space as developed by Schoeberl and coworkers.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗

Comparison of model results transporting the odd nitrogen family with results transporting separate odd nitrogen species

A fast two-dimensional residual circulation stratospheric family transport model, designed to minimize computer requirements, is developed. The model was used to calculate the ambient and perturbed atmospheres in which odd nitrogen species are transported as a family, and the results were compared with calculations in which HNO3, N2O5, ClONO2, and HO2NO2 are transported separately. It was found that ozone distributions computed by the two models for a present-day atmosphere are nearly identical. Good agreement was also found between calculated species concentrations and the ozone response, indicating the general applicability of the odd-nitrogen family approximations.

Douglass, Anne R.↗