Engineering topics

Wilson, R. M.

Publications and source records attributed to Wilson, R. M..

At least 19 records

NASA NTRS2007

Curious Behavior of Sunspot Umbrae in the First Half of the 20th Century

We examined the behavior of the areas of sunspot umbrae and penumbrae as reported daily by the Royal Observatory, Greenwich (RGO) from May 1874 to December 1976. We calculated the ratio of the umbral area to the penumbral area (corrected for foreshortening as observed on the solar disc) for each sunspot group and for each day. We found: 1) that this ratio is about 0.2 on average, 2) that larger sunspot groups have slightly smaller ratios, 3) that there is a weak dependence on the phase of the solar cycle, 4) that there is no dependence on the latitude of the sunspot groups, and curiously 5) that for the smaller sunspot groups this ratio increased dramatically from about 1910 to 1930 and then returned to "normal" from 1930 to 1950. We examined other sunspot records to determine whether this behavior was an artifact of the RGO data and find evidence to indicate that the behavior was real. For the smaller sunspots (constituting the vast majority in both number and total area), the proportional size of the sunspot umbrae slowly increased by more than 50% and then returned to "normal" over this 40-year period.

Hathaway, D. H.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Geomagnetic Activity Indicates Large Amplitude for Sunspot Cycle 24

The level of geomagnetic activity near the time of solar activity minimum has been shown to be a reliable indicator for the amplitude of the following solar activity maximum. The geomagnetic activity index aa can be split into two components: one associated with solar flares, prominence eruptions, and coronal mass ejections which follows the solar activity cycle and a second component associated with recurrent high speed solar wind streams which is out of phase with the solar activity cycle. This second component often peaks before solar activity minimum and has been one of the most reliable indicators for the amplitude of the following maximum. The size of the recent maximum in this second component indicates that solar activity cycle 24 will be much higher than average - similar in size to cycles 21 and 22.

Hathaway, D. H.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Evidence that a Deep Meridional Flow Sets the Sunspot Cycle Period

Sunspots appear on the Sun in two bands on either side of the equator that drift toward lower latitudes as each sunspot cycle progresses. We examine the equatorward drift of the centroid of the sunspot area in each hemisphere from 1874 to 2002 and find that the drift rate slows as the centroid approaches the equator. We compare the drift rate at sunspot cycle maximum to the cycle-period for each hemisphere and find a highly significant anti-correlation: hemispheres with faster drift rates have shorter periods. These observations are. consistent with an equatorward meridional counterflow, deep within the Sun, as the primary driver of the equatorward migration and the period associated with the sunspot cycle. We also find that the drift rate at maximum is significantly correlated with the amplitude of the following cycle, a prediction of dynamo models that employ a deep equatorward meridional flow. Our results indicate an amplitude of about 1.2 m/s for the meridional flow velocity at the base of the solar convection zone.

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Group Sunspot Numbers: Sunspot Cycle Characteristics

We examine the "Group" sunspot numbers constructed by Hoyt and Schatten to determine their utility in characterizing the solar activity cycle. We compare smoothed monthly Group Sunspot Numbers to Zurich (International) Sunspot Numbers, 10.7-cm radio flux, and total sunspot area. We find that the Zurich numbers follow the 10.7-cm radio flux and total sunspot area measurements slightly better than the Group numbers. We examine several significant characteristics of the sunspot cycle using both Group numbers and Zurich numbers. We find that the "Waldmeier Effect" - the anti-correlation between cycle amplitude and the elapsed time between minimum and maximum of a cycle - is much more apparent in the Zurich numbers. The "Amplitude-Period Effect" the anti-correlation between cycle amplitude and the length of the previous cycle from minimum to minimum - is also much more apparent in the Zurich numbers. The "Amplitude-Minimum Effect" - the correlation between cycle amplitude and the activity level at the previous (onset) minimum is equally apparent in both the Zurich numbers and the Group numbers. The "Even-Odd Effect" - in which odd-numbered cycles are larger than their even-numbered precursors - is somewhat stronger in the Group numbers but with a tighter relationship in the Zurich numbers. The "Secular Trend" - the increase in cycle amplitudes since the Maunder Minimum - is much stronger in Group numbers. After removing this trend we find little evidence for multi-cycle periodicities like the 80 year Gleissberg cycle or the two- and three-cycle periodicities. We also find little evidence for a correlation between the amplitude of a cycle and its period or for a bimodal distribution of cycle periods. We conclude that the Group numbers are most useful for extending the sunspot cycle data further back in time and thereby adding more cycles and improving the statistics. However, the Zurich numbers are more useful for characterizing the on-going levels of solar activity.

Hathaway, D. H.↗

NASA NTRS1986

On the association of magnetic clouds with disappearing filaments

Evidence is presented that an interplanetary magnetic cloud preceding an interaction region, observed at earth on January 24, 1974, is associated with the eruptive filament of disparition brusque (DB) near central meridian on January 18. The DB was also associated with a long-decay soft X ray transient and a long-duration gradual-rise-and-fall radio burst. To assess whether magnetic clouds are generally associated with DBs, results from statistical testing of the relation of 33 magnetic clouds (and 33 control samples without magnetic clouds) to disappearing filaments near central meridian (approximately less than 45 deg central meridian distance) are presented. The hypothesis that magnetic cloud are the 1-AU counterparts of either eruptive filaments or the coronal mass ejections which probably accompany them is supported. The major result is that disappearing filaments occur more frequently on the days when magnetic clouds are launched than on control days, a result obtained with greater than 99 pct confidence. There is a suggestion that clouds following shocks, probably launched at times of solar flares, are not as strongly associated with disappearing filaments as are clouds launched less violently.

Wilson, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Solar Flares and Coronal Physics Using P/OF as a Research Tool

This NASA Conference Publication contains the proceedings of the Workshop on Solar High-Resolution Astrophysics Using the Pinhole/Occulter Facility held at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Alabama, on May 8 to 10, 1985. These proceedings include primarily the invited tutorial papers, extended abstracts of contributed poster papers, and summaries of subpanel (X-Ray and Coronal Physics) discussions. Both observational and theoretical results are presented. Although the emphasis of the Workshop was focused primarily on topics peculiar to solar physics, one paper is included that discusses the P/0F as a tool for X-ray astronomy.

Tandberg, E.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Bimodality of the solar cycle

An alternative characterization of the solar cycle is offered that is consistent with the sunspot data for cycles 1-20 (1775-1976) but suggests a different physical interpretation. For sunspot cycles 1-20, all cycles occurred in strings (two to six cycles in length) during which the period remained longer or shorter than the sample mean period. These strings have coincided with long-term trends of growth or decay in the amplitude of the cycle. In six out of six cases, the period of the cycle has switched from long to short (or the reverse) in coincidence with the turning points in the long-term trend. This suggests that the solar dynamo has two modes with different mean periods. In the short-period mode, the amplitude of the cycle grows; in the long-period mode, the amplitude decays. The transition between modes has occurred at irregular intervals. A persistence of the long-period mode would eventually produce a grand minimum such as the Maunder minimum; a persistence of the short-period mode would produce a grand maximum. Unless the present interval between transitions turns out to be shorter than any previously observed interval, the present cycle (cycle 21) is part of a long-period, decaying trend and will be of longer-than-average duration (more than 133 months).

Rabin, D.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Estimating sunspot number

An empirical method is developed to predict certain parameters of future solar activity cycles. Sunspot cycle statistics are examined, and curve fitting and linear regression analysis techniques are utilized.

Wilson, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Description of sunspot cycles by orthogonal functions

Based on the principal component analysis technique and evidence for a 22-yr double-sunspot cycle periodicity. The time series of sunspot numbers is represented as a sum of mutually orthogonal eigenvectors in the time domain. It is shown that the first two eigenvectors account for about 90 percent of the cumulative 'signal power,' and that this is sufficient for reconstruction of the raw data curve. It is also noted that the second eigenvector behaves as the time derivative of the first, and that a phase-plane plot of these eigenvectors (i.e. a plot of a variable vs. its rate of change) suggests that the sun's sunspot cycle is driven by an oscillator; the implication is that, embedded within the sun, a chronometer is at work (e.g. Dicke, 1979).

Teuber, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS1984

On long-term periodicities in the sunspot record

Sunspot records are systematically maintained, with the knowledge that an 11 year average period exists since about 1850. Thus, the sunspot record of highest quality and considered to be the most reliable is that of cycle eight through the present. On the basis of cycles 8 through 20, various combinations of sine curves were used to approximate the observed R sub MAX values (where R sub MAX is the smoothed sunspot number at cycle maximum). It is found that a three component sinusoidal function, having an 11 cycle and a 2 cycle variation on a 90 cycle periodicity, yields computed R sub MAX values which fit, reasonably well, observed R sub MAX values for the modern sunspot cycles. Extrapolation of the empirical functions forward in time allows for the projection of values of R sub MAX for cycles 21 and 22. For cycle 21, the function projects a value of 157.3, very close to the actually observed value of 164.5. For cycle 22, the function projects a value of about 107. Linear regressions applied to cycle 22 indicate a long-period cycle (cycle duration 132 months). An extensive bibliography on techniques used to estimate the time dependent behavior of sunspot cycles is provided.

Wilson, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1984

A comparative look at sunspot cycles

On the basis of cycles 8 through 20, spanning about 143 years, observations of sunspot number, smoothed sunspot number, and their temporal properties were used to compute means, standard deviations, ranges, and frequency of occurrence histograms for a number of sunspot cycle parameters. The resultant schematic sunspot cycle was contrasted with the mean sunspot cycle, obtained by averaging smoothed sunspot number as a function of time, tying all cycles (8 through 20) to their minimum occurence date. A relatively good approximation of the time variation of smoothed sunspot number for a given cycle is possible if sunspot cycles are regarded in terms of being either HIGH- or LOW-R(MAX) cycles or LONG- or SHORT-PERIOD cycles, especially the latter. Linear regression analyses were performed comparing late cycle parameters with early cycle parameters and solar cycle number. The early occurring cycle parameters can be used to estimate later occurring cycle parameters with relatively good success, based on cycle 21 as an example. The sunspot cycle record clearly shows that the trend for both R(MIN) and R(MAX) was toward decreasing value between cycles 8 through 14 and toward increasing value between cycles 14 through 20. Linear regression equations were also obtained for several measures of solar activity.

Wilson, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Are interplanetary magnetic clouds manifestations of coronal transients at 1 AU?

Using proxy data for the occurrence of those mass ejections from the solar corona which are directed earthward, the association between the post-1970 interplanetary magnetic clouds of Klein and Burlaga (1982) and coronal mass ejections is investigated. The evidence linking magnetic clouds following shocks with coronal mass ejections is striking; six of nine clouds observed at earth were preceded an appropriate time earlier by meter-wave type II radio bursts indicative of coronal shock waves and coronal mass ejections occurring near central meridian. During the selected control periods when no clouds were detected near earth, the only type II bursts reported were associated with solar activity near the limbs. Where the proxy solar data to be sought are not so clearly suggested, that is, for clouds preceding interaction regions and clouds within cold magnetic enhancements, the evidence linking the clouds and coronal mass ejections is not as clear; proxy data usually suggest many candidate mass-ejection events for each cloud.

Wilson, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Evidence linking coronal mass ejections with interplanetary magnetic clouds

Using proxy data for the occurrence of those mass ejections from the solar corona which are directed earthward, we investigate the association between the post-1970 interplanetary magnetic clouds of Klein and Burlaga and coronal mass ejections. The evidence linking magnetic clouds following shocks with coronal mass ejections is striking; six of nine clouds observed at Earth were preceded an appropriate time earlier by meter-wave type II radio bursts indicative of coronal shock waves and coronal mass ejections occurring near central meridian. During the selected periods when no clouds were detected near Earth, the only type II bursts reported were associated with solar activity near the limbs. Where the proxy solar data to be sought are not so clearly suggested, that is, for clouds preceding interaction regions and clouds within cold magnetic enhancements, the evidence linking the clouds and coronal mass ejections is not as clear; proxy data usually suggest many candidate mass-ejection events for each cloud. Overall, the data are consistent with and support the hypothesis suggested by Klein and Burlaga that magnetic clouds observed with spacecraft at 1 AU are manifestations of solar coronal mass ejection transients.

Wilson, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Statistical aspects of the 1980 solar flares. Part 3: Parametric comparison and final comments

The 1349 study flares are considered addressing relationships between pairs of specific study paremeters; namely, H alpha rise time versus H alpha importance, X-ray class and H alpha decay time; H alpha decay time versus H alpha importance and X-ray class; and H alpha importance versus X-ray class. Mean H alpha rise time and decay time versus X-ray class and H alpha importance will also be discussed, and some final comments regarding the study flares are given.

Wilson, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Sunspot variation and selected associated phenomena: A look at solar cycle 21 and beyond

Solar sunspot cycles 8 through 21 are reviewed. Mean time intervals are calculated for maximum to maximum, minimum to minimum, minimum to maximum, and maximum to minimum phases for cycles 8 through 20 and 8 through 21. Simple cosine functions with a period of 132 years are compared to, and found to be representative of, the variation of smoothed sunspot numbers at solar maximum and minimum. A comparison of cycles 20 and 21 is given, leading to a projection for activity levels during the Spacelab 2 era (tentatively, November 1984). A prediction is made for cycle 22. Major flares are observed to peak several months subsequent to the solar maximum during cycle 21 and to be at minimum level several months after the solar minimum. Additional remarks are given for flares, gradual rise and fall radio events and 2800 MHz radio emission. Certain solar activity parameters, especially as they relate to the near term Spacelab 2 time frame are estimated.

Wilson, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Statistical aspects of the 1980 solar flares. 2: Solar cycle activity relationships and additional remarks

Based on 1349 hydrogen alpha flares with X-ray counterparts, an investigation into the relationship between the rise time, decay time, duration, latitude, hydrogen alpha importance, and X-ray class with 2800 MHz radio emission (F2800) was accomplished. An important finding is that during 1980 both the number of hydrogen alpha importance class 1 and number of X-ray class M (and M+X) flares appeared to be rather strongly related to F2800, in a positive sense; i.e., number of class 1 and class M events increased as F2800 increased.

Wilson, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Statistical aspects of the 1980 solar flars. 1: Data base, frequency distributions, and overview remarks

AII1349 H alpha flares occurring in 1980 which have known start, maximum brightness, and end times, latitudes, and associated importance and X-ray classes were used to perform a statistical study of flare rise time, decay time, duration, latitude, importance (areal and relative intensity), and X-ray class. Frequency distributions of these parameters are tabulated and plotted.

Wilson, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Principal component analysis of solar flares in the soft X-ray flux

The paper considers principal component analysis of solar flares in the soft X-ray flux, a technique for extracting the salient features from a mass of data. The method applies particularly to the analysis of nonstationary ensembles, and its computations require the evaluation of eigenvalues of matrices. The Eispack matrix eigen system routines were used to analyze full-disk proportional-counter data from the X-ray event analyzer which was part of the Skylab experiment. Empirical orthogonal functions were derived for events in the soft X-ray spectrum between 2.5 and 20 A during different time periods, indicating that about 90% of the cumulative power of each analyzed flare is contained in the largest eigenvector. The first two largest eigenvectors are sufficient for an empirical curve fit through the raw data and a characterization of solar flares in the soft X-ray flux, and power spectra of two largest eigenvectors reveal a reported periodicity of about 5 min.

Teuber, D. L.↗