Impacts with the Earth and Jupiter

Abstract

The Earth has been subject to impacts from comets and asteroids since its formation, and such impacts have played an important role in the evolution of life on our planet. We now recognize not only the historical role of impacts, but the contemporary hazard posed by such events. In the absence of a complete census of potentially threatening Earth-crossing asteroids or comets (called collectively Near Earth Objects, or NEOs), or even of a comprehensive current search program to identify NEOs, we can consider the hazard only from a probabilistic perspective. In general, the larger the object the greater the hazard, even when allowance is made for the infrequency of large impacts. Most of the danger to human life is associated with impacts by objects roughly 2 km or larger (energy greater than 1 million megatons), which can inject sufficient submicrometer dust into the atmosphere to produce a severe short-term global cooling with subsequent loss of crops, leading to starvation. Hazard estimates suggest that the chance of such an event occurring during a human lifetime is about 1:5000, and the global probability of death from such impacts is of the order of 1:20000, values that can be compared with risks associated with other natural hazards such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and severe storms. The widely-observed impact of Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 with Jupiter in July 1994 provides a graphic example of such an interplanetary collision and is stimulating worldwide interest in protecting our planet against cosmic impact catastrophes.