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NASA NTRS · 20230012786

Climate Scenarios and Reality

Chris Field·Marcia McNutt·Kate Marvel·Gavin A. Schmidt·Peter H. Jacobs
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Abstract

Progress on the important issue of climate change requires a framework for evaluating the likely consequences of different courses of action. Science can powerfully inform public decisions on energy systems, infrastructure, and economic policy when researchers explore, using the best available evidence, a range of possible futures using emissions scenarios. The process of constructing, describing, and using these scenarios is challenging for many reasons. The continued evolution and improvement of emissions scenarios is an important element of the future of climate-change research. But in “How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch With Reality” (Issues, Summer 2021), Roger Pielke Jr. and Justin Ritchie are wildly off base in declaring that the “misuse of scenarios in climate research has become pervasive and consequential—so much so that we view it as one of the most significant failures of scientific integrity in the twenty-first century thus far.”

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Chris Field, Marcia McNutt, Kate Marvel, Gavin A. Schmidt, Peter H. Jacobs. 2021-09-01. Climate Scenarios and Reality. https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20230012786

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