GeoVision Analysis: Exploration Task Force Report

Abstract

The GeoVision study effort included ground-breaking, detailed research on current and future market conditions and geothermal technologies in order to forecast and quantify the electric and non-electric deployment potentials under a range of scenarios, in addition to their impacts on the Nation’s jobs, economy and environment. Coordinated by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO), the GeoVision study development relied on the collection, modeling, and analysis of robust datasets through seven national laboratory partners, which were organized into eight technical Task Force groups. The purpose of this report is to provide a central repository for the research conducted by the Exploration Task Force. The Exploration Task Force consists of four individuals representing three national laboratories: Patrick Dobson (task lead) and Christine Doughty of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Anna Wall of National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Travis McLing of Idaho National Laboratory, and Chester Weiss of Sandia National Laboratories. As part of the GeoVision analysis, our team conducted extensive scientific and financial analyses on a number of topics related to current and future geothermal exploration methods. The GeoVision Exploration Task Force complements the drilling and resource technology investigations conducted as part of the Reservoir Maintenance and Development Task Force. The Exploration Task Force however has focused primarily on early stage R&D technologies in exploration and confirmation drilling, along with an evaluation of geothermal financing challenges and assumptions, and innovative “blue-sky” technologies. This research was used to develop geothermal resource supply curves (through the use of GETEM) for use in the ReEDS capacity expansion modeling that determines geothermal technology deployment potential. It also catalogues and explores the large array of early-stage R&D technologies with the potential to dramatically reduce exploration and geothermal development costs, forming the basis of the GeoVision Technology Improvement (TI) scenario. These modeling topics are covered in detail in Potential to Penetration task force report. Most of the research contained herein has been published in peer-reviewed papers or conference proceedings and are cited and referenced accordingly. The sections that follow provide a central repository for all of the research findings of the Exploration and Confirmation Task Force. In summary, it provides a comprehensive discussion of Engineered Geothermal Systems (EGS) and associated technology challenges, the risks and costs of conducting geothermal exploration, a review of existing government efforts to date in advancing early-stage R&D in both exploration and EGS technologies, as well as a discussion of promising and innovative technologies and implementation of blue-sky concepts that could significantly reduce costs, lower risks, and shorten the time needed to explore and develop geothermal resources of all types.