Lightning strike prediction at the Savannah River Site

Abstract

At the Savannah River Site, employees receive warnings about lightning only after three strikes have already occurred near the site. In order to increase employee safety, it is preferential to warn employees of a lightning threat much sooner. We used data from an on-site Electric Field Mill to measure values of the atmospheric electric charge. We also used lightning detection data from the National Lightning Detection Network and the Geostationary Lightning Mapper. By comparing the data of each, we can determine how long before or after a lightning strike did the Electric Field Mill first measure within our lightning detection threshold. If the detection threshold occurs before the strike does, this provides a lead time for knowing about lightning risks before they happen. Our findings conclude that 95% of lightning strikes have a lead time in the electric field where we can predict the lightning before it occurs and warn employees of the potential lightning threat. However, our lightning detection threshold can occur even without lightning or precipitation. Finding how these false lightning alarms affect our data is necessary to improving the lightning warning system.