Unlocking Dysprosium Constraints for China’s 1.5 °C Climate Target

Abstract

Some key low-carbon technologies, ranging from wind turbines to electric vehicles, are underpinned by the strong rare-earth-based permanent magnets of the Nd, Pr (Dy)–Fe–Nb type (NdFeB). These NdFeB magnets, which are sensitive to demagnetization with temperature elevation (the Curie point), require the addition of variable amounts of dysprosium (Dy), where an elevation of the Curie point is needed to meet operational conditions. Given that China is the world’s largest REE supplier with abundant REE reserves, the impact of an ambitious 1.5 °C climate target on China’s Dy supply chain has sparked widespread concern. Here, we explore future trends and innovation strategies associated with the linkage between Dy and NdFeBs under various climate scenarios in China. We find China alone is expected to exhaust the global present Dy reserve within the next 2–3 decades to facilitate the 1.5 °C climate target. By implementing global available innovation strategies, such as material substitution, reduction, and recycling, it is possible to avoid 48%–68% of China’s cumulative demand for Dy. Nevertheless, ongoing efforts in REE exploration and production are still required to meet China’s growing Dy demand, which will face competition from the United States, European Union, and other countries with ambitious climate targets. Here our analysis urges China and those nations to form wider cooperation in REE supply chains as well as in NdFeB innovation for the realization of a global climate-safe future.