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DOE OSTI · 2583634

Electrification pathways for U.S. passenger vehicles

Muratori, Matteo [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)] (ORCID:0000000316886742)·Ledna, Catherine [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)]·Jadun, Paige [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)] (ORCID:0000000310864454)·Hoehne, Chris [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)] (ORCID:0000000299042256)·Yip, Arthur [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)] (ORCID:0000000156106507)·Podkaminer, Kara [U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. (United States)]
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Abstract

As electric vehicle (EV) adoption continues to accelerate, we explore the implications of different adoption trajectories that achieve a full transition to EVs by 2050 for U.S. light-duty passenger vehicles (LDVs). Using a vetted transportation system model, we find that achieving 100% EV sales by 2040 would decrease tailpipe greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 90% between 2022 and 2050, leaving about 45 million gasoline vehicles on the road. Achieving 100% sales by 2035, tailpipe emissions decrease 93%, with about 28 million gasoline vehicles on the road in 2050 (9% of stock). Slower EV adoption, reaching 100% sales by 2045, would result in 69 million gasoline vehicles on the road in 2050. Fully electrifying passenger vehicles by 2050 would require a full transition to EVs sales in the 2030s coupled with either changes to mobility, or an accelerated stock turnover in the 2040s with additional 19–30% annual LDV sales.

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32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMSTEMPO modelbattery-electric vehiclesdecarbonizationenergy modellingenergy policyenergy supply and demandlight-duty vehiclesrenewable energy

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Muratori, Matteo [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)] (ORCID:0000000316886742), Ledna, Catherine [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)], Jadun, Paige [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)] (ORCID:0000000310864454), Hoehne, Chris [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)] (ORCID:0000000299042256), Yip, Arthur [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)] (ORCID:0000000156106507), Podkaminer, Kara [U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. (United States)]. 2025-07-30. Electrification pathways for U.S. passenger vehicles. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44333-025-00052-6

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