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Trending in Pc Measurements via a Bayesian Zero-Inflated Mixed Model

Two satellites predicted to come within close proximity of one another, usually a high-value satellite and a piece of space debris moving the active satellite is a means of reducing collision risk but reduces satellite lifetime, perturbs satellite mission, and introduces its own risks. So important to get a good statement of the risk of collision in order to determine whether a maneuver is truly necessary. Two aspects of this Calculation of the Probability of Collision (Pc) based on the most recent set of position velocity and uncertainty data for both satellites. Examination of the changes in the Pc value as the event develops. Events should follow a canonical development (Pc vs time to closest approach (TCA)). Helpful to be able to guess where the present data point fits in the canonical development in order to guide operational response.

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Bayesian Methods for Longitudinal Trending in Probabilities of Collision

Satellites have become an integral part of modern life, supporting phone communication, television and radio broadcasting, internet access, and military activities. Indeed, it is difficult to imagine modern society without many of these technologies, especially in an age when the world is increasingly interconnected via long-distance communications. As of 2013, there were over one thousand operational satellites in orbit about Earth. About half of these active satellites are in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO, meaning an orbital period less than 225 minutes), which is where the International Space Station (ISS) conducts operations, along with other commercial missions such as earth observation and satellite telephone communications. An increasing amount of attention is being placed on protecting satellites in LEO, as the frequency of object launches and satellite fragmentation events has contributed to the proliferation of space debris, resulting in increased congestion.

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