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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
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NASA NTRS1994

Venus climate stability and volcanic resurfacing rates

The climate of Venus is to a large degree controlled by the radiative properties of its massive atmosphere. In addition, outgassing due to volcanic activity, exospheric escape processes, and surface/atmosphere interactions may all be important in moderating the abundances of atmospheric CO2 and other volatiles. We have developed an evolutionary climate model for Venus using a systems approach that emphasizes feedbacks between elements in the climate system. Modules for atmospheric radiative transfer, surface/atmosphere interactions, tropospheric chemistry, and exospheric escape processes have so far been developed. Climate feedback loops result from interconnections between modules, in the form of the environmental parameters pressure, temperature, and atmospheric mixing ratios. The radiative transfer module has been implemented by using Rosseland mean opacities in a one dimensional grey radiative-convective model. The model has been solved for the static (time independent) case to determine climate equilibrium points. The dynamics of the model have also been explored by employing reaction/diffusion kinetics for possible surface atmosphere heterogeneous reactions over geologic timescales. It was found that under current conditions, the model predicts that the climate of Venus is at or near an unstable equilibrium point. The effects of constant rate volcanism and corresponding exsolution of volatiles on the stability of the climate model were also explored.

Bullock, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Climate stability and cloud optical thickness feedbacks

An improved radiative-convective model (RCM) has been developed and used to examine the role of cirrus clouds in the optical thickness feedback mechanism. Low and middle clouds are approximately black bodies for infrared radiative transfer, and so any increase in their optical thickness primarily increases the cloud albedo. Thus, if a climate warming is accompanied by an increase in average atmospheric absolute humidity and hence in average cloud liquid water content, low and middle cloud optical thickness and albedo may increase. The result is a negative feedback on the climate change, tending to reduce the surface temperature increase. Recent research suggests that the optical thickness feedback can depend sensitively on aspects of cirrus which are not well observed or adequately incorporated in typical present-day climate models.

Somerville, Richard C. J.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Projections of Future Sea Level Contributions from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets: Challenges Beyond Dynamical Ice Sheet Modeling

As Earth's climate warms, rising sea levels are becoming a great concern. Providing substantiated and well-informed guidance on the amount and rate of future sea level rise is important, but remains challenging. Observations of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets-Earth's largest freshwater reservoirs-reveal their ongoing, rapid, and complex changes in response to an evolving climate. The improved understanding of ice sheet behavior resulting from observations is driving the development of ice sheet models, and is allowing better simulation of past, present, and future ice sheet evolution. However, insight into future changes requires a better understanding of how ice sheets interact with other components of the Earth system and associated feedbacks. As climate models start to include dynamical ice sheet components, our understanding of such interactions and the feedback mechanisms will advance. These new developments in ice sheet modeling and their implementation in climate models are timely, as observations indicate an accelerating contribution of ice sheets to sea level rise.

ice sheet model↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating and Constraining Models’ Stratocumulus and Cumulus Cloud Feedbacks in the Tropics using Satellite Observations to Reduce Uncertainties in Future Climate Projections

Low-cloud feedbacks are thought to be the greatest source of uncertainty in climate projections on the centennial scale. Past research has mainly focused on the global low-cloud feedback as a whole whereas only a few studies have examined separated contributions from the two main low cloud categories: stratocumulus (Sc) and shallow cumulus (Cu). Here we aim to evaluate and constrain Sc and Cu cloud feedbacks in models using satellite observations to ultimately reduce their contribution to the spread in equilibrium climate sensitivity. We utilize the Cumulus and Stratocumulus CloudSat-CALIPSO Dataset (CASCCAD) recently developed by Cesana et al. (2019), which discriminates Sc from Cu clouds. This algorithm – based on cloud morphological characteristics at the orbital level – outperforms previous cloud-type classifications stemming from passive-sensor measurements. We investigate the observed relationship between the Sc and Cu cloud cover in tropical subsidence oceanic regions and their link to the primary low-cloud controlling factors (sea surface temperature, estimated inversion strength). To gain further insight into the Sc-Cu cloud partitioning, we explore the Sc-Cu relationship during the four meteorological seasons (DJF, MAM, JJA, SON) as well as on monthly timescale. We find a substantial negative correlation between the Sc and Cu cloud cover on annual, seasonal and monthly timescales. We finally evaluate how well climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and phase 6 (CMIP6) agree with the observations. These results establish a framework to advance model parameterizations of the underlying physical processes driving the stratocumulus and shallow cumulus clouds (turbulence and convection).

Cloud feedbacks↗
NASA NTRS2016

LS3MIP (v1.0) Contribution to CMIP6: The Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project Aims, Setup and Expected Outcome.

The Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project (LS3MIP) is designed to provide a comprehensive assessment of land surface, snow, and soil moisture feedbacks on climate variability and climate change, and to diagnose systematic biases in the land modules of current Earth System Models (ESMs). The solid and liquid water stored at the land surface has a large influence on the regional climate, its variability and predictability, including effects on the energy, water and carbon cycles. Notably, snow and soil moisture affect surface radiation and flux partitioning properties, moisture storage and land surface memory. They both strongly affect atmospheric conditions, in particular surface air temperature and precipitation, but also large-scale circulation patterns. However, models show divergent responses and representations of these feedbacks as well as systematic biases in the underlying processes. LS3MIP will provide the means to quantify the associated uncertainties and better constrain climate change projections, which is of particular interest for highly vulnerable regions (densely populated areas, agricultural regions, the Arctic, semi-arid and other sensitive terrestrial ecosystems).The experiments are subdivided in two components, the first addressing systematic land biases in offline mode (LMIP, building upon the 3rd phase of Global Soil Wetness Project; GSWP3) and the second addressing land feedbacks attributed to soil moisture and snow in an integrated framework (LFMIP, building upon the GLACE-CMIP blueprint).

atmospheric temperature↗
NASA NTRS1990

Cirrus radiative characteristics and the radiative impact of small particles

An understanding of the way radiation interacts with clouds is vital for understanding the sensitivity of the earth's climate to both natural and anthropogenic changes in the atmosphere. Cirrus clouds are thought to be an important modulator of climate sensitivity. The feedback effect of cirrus on climate can be positive or negative depending upon the microphysics and scattering properties of the cloud. These properties of cirrus clouds are not well understood partly because of their thin tenuous nature and partly because of their microphysical properties. The high altitude and cold temperatures within these clouds along with their transparency greatly increase the difficulty in which accurate measurements can be obtained and interpreted both by aircraft and remote sensing. Therefore, the understanding of the interaction of radiation in cirrus clouds is crucial to determining the ways in which these clouds interact with climate forcings. The sensitivity of the radiative budgets of cirrus cloudiness to their microphysical composition and the environments in which they occur is examined. Especially important is the impact of small particles on the radiative properties of cirrus. Remote sensing estimates of the effective crystal size of cirrus and in situ measurements show large differences up to 100 microns. Thus it becomes important to identify the sources of these differences. For this reason, simulations of actual FIRE cases are compared with the in situ radiative observations and inferences are made concerning the cause of the discrepancies.

Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Tropical Oceanic Precipitation Changes After the 1991 Pinatubo Eruption

Passive microwave channels like those flown on the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) contain two primary type of information on oceanic precipitation: condensate below the freezing level and precipitation-size condensate above the freezing level. The authors explore the question of whether these two separate pieces of information might contain insight into climate processes during a perturbation in the climate system. In particular, the relative fluctuations of rain and ice signals could be related to precipitation efficiency, an important determinant of the equilibrium climate, and thus a potential feedback mechanism in climate change. As an example of this potential application, SSM/I-derived liquid and frozen precipitation signals are used to infer changes in tropical oceanic precipitation characteristics during the cool period following the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo. The need for an assessment of the temperature sensitivity of precipitation-retrieval algorithms is also discussed.

Spencer, Roy W.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Synchronous NDVI and Surface Air Temperature Trends in Newfoundland: 1982 to 2003

The northern regions of the earth are currently experiencing rapid change in temperature and precipitation. This region contains -40% of carbon stored in the world's soil which has accumulated from the last ice age (over 10,000 years ago). The carbon has remained to this point due to reduced decomposition from the short growing seasons and subfreezing temperatures. The influence of climate upon plant growth can have significant consequences to the carbon cycle balance in this region and could potentially alter and release this long term store of carbon to the atmosphere, resulting in a negative feedback enhancing climate warming. These changes have the potential to alter ecosystems processes, which impact human well being. This paper investigated a global satellite record of increases in vegetation growth from 1982 to 2003 developed at GSFC. It was found that, Newfoundland's vegetation growth during the 1990s exceeded global measurements. A number of potential causes were investigated to understand the mechanistic environmental drivers that could alter the productivity of this ecosystem. Possible drivers of change included: human influence of land use change on vegetation cover; changes in precipitation; temperature; cloud cover; snow cover; and growing season length. We found that humans had a minimal influence on vegetation growth in Newfoundland. Less than 6% of the island was logged during the investigation. We found a strong correlation of vegetation growth to a lengthening of the growing season of -9 and -17 days from 1982-1990 and 1991-1999. A distinct drop in plant growth and air temperature was found in 1990 to 1991 from the volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo that reduced global surface air temperatures. These results document the influences of air temperature upon northern forest plant growth and the cooling effects of major volcanic eruptions in this ecological system.

Neigh, C. S. R.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Century Scale Evaporation Trend: An Observational Study

Several climate models with different complexity indicate that under increased CO2 forcing, runoff would increase faster than precipitation overland. However, observations over large U.S watersheds indicate otherwise. This inconsistency between models and observations suggests that there may be important feedbacks between climate and land surface unaccounted for in the present generation of models. We have analyzed century-scale observed annual runoff and precipitation time-series over several United States Geological Survey hydrological units covering large forested regions of the Eastern United States not affected by irrigation. Both time-series exhibit a positive long-term trend; however, in contrast to model results, these historic data records show that the rate of precipitation increases at roughly double the rate of runoff increase. We considered several hydrological processes to close the water budget and found that none of these processes acting alone could account for the total water excess generated by the observed difference between precipitation and runoff. We conclude that evaporation has increased over the period of observations and show that the increasing trend in precipitation minus runoff is correlated to observed increase in vegetation density based on the longest available global satellite record. The increase in vegetation density has important implications for climate; it slows but does not alleviate the projected warming associated with greenhouse gases emission.

Bounoui, Lahouari↗
NASA NTRS2012

Energy Balance Models and Planetary Dynamics

We know that planetary dynamics can have a significant affect on the climate of planets. Planetary dynamics dominate the glacial-interglacial periods on Earth, leaving a significant imprint on the geological record. They have also been demonstrated to have a driving influence on the climates of other planets in our solar system. We should therefore expect th.ere to be similar relationships on extrasolar planets. Here we describe a simple energy balance model that can predict the growth and thickness of glaciers, and their feedbacks on climate. We will also describe model changes that we have made to include planetary dynamics effects. This is the model we will use at the start of our collaboration to handle the influence of dynamics on climate.

Domagal-Goldman, Shawn↗
NASA NTRS2001

Modeling Feedbacks Between Water and Vegetation in the Climate System

Not only is water essential for life on earth, but life itself affects the global hydrologic cycle and consequently the climate of the planet. Whether the global feedbacks between life and the hydrologic cycle tend to stabilize the climate system about some equilibrium level is difficult to assess. We use a global climate model to examine how the presence of vegetation can affect the hydrologic cycle in a particular region. A control for the present climate is compared with a model experiment in which the Sahara Desert is replaced by vegetation in the form of trees and shrubs common to the Sahel region. A second model experiment is designed to identify the separate roles of two different effects of vegetation, namely the modified albedo and the presence of roots that can extract moisture from deeper soil layers. The results show that the presence of vegetation leads to increases in precipitation and soil moisture in western Sahara. In eastern Sahara, the changes are less clear. The increase in soil moisture is greater when the desert albedo is replaced by the vegetation albedo than when both the vegetation albedo and roots are added. The effect of roots is to withdraw water from deeper layers during the dry season. One implication of this study is that the insertion of vegetation into the Sahara modifies the hydrologic cycle so that the vegetation is more likely to persist than initially.

Miller, James R.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Implications of Projected Climate Change for Groundwater Recharge in the Western United States

Existing studies on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge are either global or basin/ location-specific. The global studies lack the specificity to inform decision making, while the local studies do little to clarify potential changes over large regions (major river basins, states, or groups of states), a scale often important in the development of water policy. An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on groundwater recharge across the western United States (west of 100 degrees longitude) is presented synthesizing existing studies and applying current knowledge of recharge processes and amounts. Eight representative aquifers located across the region were evaluated. For each aquifer published recharge budget components were converted into four standard recharge mechanisms: diffuse, focused, irrigation, and mountain-systems recharge. Future changes in individual recharge mechanisms and total recharge were then estimated for each aquifer. Model-based studies of projected climate-change effects on recharge were available and utilized for half of the aquifers. For the remainder, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation were logically propagated through each recharge mechanism producing qualitative estimates of direction of changes in recharge only (not magnitude). Several key patterns emerge from the analysis. First, the available estimates indicate average declines of 10-20% in total recharge across the southern aquifers, but with a wide range of uncertainty that includes no change. Second, the northern set of aquifers will likely incur little change to slight increases in total recharge. Third, mountain system recharge is expected to decline across much of the region due to decreased snowpack, with that impact lessening with higher elevation and latitude. Factors contributing the greatest uncertainty in the estimates include: (1) limited studies quantitatively coupling climate projections to recharge estimation methods using detailed, process-based numerical models; (2) a generally poor understanding of hydrologic flowpaths and processes in mountain systems; (3) difficulty predicting the response of focused recharge to potential changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events; and (4) unconstrained feedbacks between climate, irrigation practices, and recharge in highly developed aquifer systems.

longitude↗
NASA NTRS2018

Soil Organic Carbon and Nitrogen Feedbacks on Crop Yields Under Climate Change

A critical omission from climate change impact studies on crop yield is the interaction between soil organic carbon (SOC), nitrogen (N) availability, and carbon dioxide (CO2). We used a multimodel ensemble to predict the effects of SOC and N under different scenarios of temperatures and CO2 concentrations on maize (Zea mays L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield in eight sites across the world. We found that including feedbacks from SOC and N losses due to increased temperatures would reduce yields by 13% in wheat and 19% in maize for a 3°C rise temperature with no adaptation practices. These losses correspond to an additional 4.5% (+3°C) when compared to crop yield reductions attributed to temperature increase alone. Future CO2 increase to 540 ppm would partially compensate losses by 80% for both maize and wheat at +3°C, and by 35% for wheat and 20% for maize at +6°C, relative to the baseline CO2 scenario.

Basso, B.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Boundary Layer Remote Sensing with Combined Active and Passive Techniques: GPS Radio Occultation and High-Resolution Stereo Imaging (WindCam) Small Satellite Concept

Objective: significant progress in understanding low-cloud boundary layer processes. This is the Single largest uncertainty in climate projections. Radio occultation has unique features suited to boundary layer remote sensing (1) Cloud penetrating (2) Very high vertical resolution (approximately 50m-100m) (3) Sensitivity to thermodynamic variables

stereo camera↗
NASA NTRS2011

Atmospheric Chemistry Over Southern Africa

During the southern African dry season, regional haze from mixed industrial pollution, biomass burning aerosol and gases from domestic and grassland fires, and biogenic sources from plants and soils is worsened by a semi-permanent atmosphere gyre over the subcontinent. These factors were a driver of several major international field campaigns in the 1990s and early 2000s, and attracted many scientists to the region. Some researchers were interested in understanding fundamental processes governing chemistry of the atmosphere and interaction with climate change. Others found favorable conditions for evaluating satellite-derived measurements of atmospheric properties and a changing land surface. With that background in mind a workshop on atmospheric chemistry was held in South Africa. Sponsored by the International Commission for Atmospheric Chemistry and Global Pollution (ICACGP; http://www.icacgp.org/), the workshop received generous support from the South African power utility, Eskom, and the Climatology Research Group of the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa. The purpose of the workshop was to review some earlier findings as well as more recent findings on southern African climate vulnerability, chemical changes due to urbanization, land-use modification, and how these factors interact. Originally proposed by John Burrows, president of ICACGP, the workshop was the first ICACGP regional workshop to study the interaction of air pollution with global chemical and climate change. Organized locally by the University of the Witwatersrand, the workshop attracted more than 60 delegates from South Africa, Mozambique, Botswana, Zimbabwe, France, Germany, Canada, and the United States. More than 30 presentations were given, exploring both retrospective and prospective aspects of the science. In several talks, attention was focused on southern African chemistry, atmospheric pollution monitoring, and climate processes as they were studied in the field campaigns such as Transport and Atmospheric Chemistry Near the Equator-Atlantic (TRACE-A), Southern African Fire-Atmosphere Research Initiative (SAFARI-92), and Southern African Regional Science Initiative (SAFARI 2000). Since those large international efforts, satellites have matured enough to enable quantifiable measurements of regional land surface, atmosphere, and ocean. In addition, global and chemical transport models have also been advanced to incorporate various data. Thus, the timing of the workshop was right for a full-fledged re-assessment of the chemistry, physics, and socio-economical impacts caused by pollution in the region, including a characterization of sources, deposition, and feedbacks with climate change.

Gatebe, Charles K.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Global Air Quality and Climate

Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH4), ozone precursors (O3), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O3 precursor CH4 would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH4 and tropospheric O3. Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, which increase tropospheric O3 (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH4 (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH4 volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O3 and CH4. Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O3 and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios assume uniformly an aggressive reduction, of air pollutant emissions. New estimates from the current generation of chemistry-climate models with RCP emissions thus project improved air quality over the next century relative to those using the IPCC SRES scenarios. These two sets of projections likely bracket possible futures. We find that uncertainty in emission-driven changes in air quality is generally greater than uncertainty in climate-driven changes. Confidence in air quality projections is limited by the reliability of anthropogenic emission trajectories and the uncertainties in regional climate responses, feedbacks with the terrestrial biosphere, and oxidation pathways affecting O3 and SOA.

ozone↗
NASA NTRS2016

Regional Atmospheric CO2 Inversion Reveals Seasonal and Geographic Differences in Amazon Net Biome Exchange

Understanding tropical rainforest carbon exchange and its response to heat and drought is critical for quantifying the effects of climate change on tropical ecosystems, including global climate carbon feedbacks. Of particular importance for the global carbon budget is net biome exchange of CO2 with the atmosphere (NBE), which represents nonfire carbon fluxes into and out of biomass and soils. Subannual and sub-Basin Amazon NBE estimates have relied heavily on process-based biosphere models, despite lack of model agreement with plot-scale observations. We present a new analysis of airborne measurements that reveals monthly, regional-scale (Approx.1-8 x 10(exp -6) km2) NBE variations. We develop a regional atmospheric CO2 inversion that provides the first analysis of geographic and temporal variability in Amazon biosphere-atmosphere carbon exchange and that is minimally influenced by biosphere model-based first guesses of seasonal and annual mean fluxes. We find little evidence for a clear seasonal cycle in Amazon NBE but do find NBE sensitivity to aberrations from long-term mean climate. In particular, we observe increased NBE (more carbon emitted to the atmosphere) associated with heat and drought in 2010, and correlations between wet season NBE and precipitation (negative correlation) and temperature (positive correlation). In the eastern Amazon, pulses of increased NBE persisted through 2011, suggesting legacy effects of 2010 heat and drought. We also identify regional differences in postdrought NBE that appear related to long-term water availability. We examine satellite proxies and find evidence for higher gross primary productivity (GPP) during a pulse of increased carbon uptake in 2011, and lower GPP during a period of increased NBE in the 2010 dry season drought, but links between GPP and NBE changes are not conclusive. These results provide novel evidence of NBE sensitivity to short-term temperature and moisture extremes in the Amazon, where monthly and sub-Basin estimates have not been previously available.

precipitation↗
NASA NTRS2019

Progress and Challenges in Quantifying Wildfire Smoke Emissions, Their Properties, Transport, and Atmospheric Impacts

Wildfire is a natural and integral ecosystem process that is necessary to maintain species composition, structure, and ecosystem function. Extreme fires have been increasing over the last decades, which have a substantial impact on air quality, human health, the environment, and climate systems. Smoke aerosols can be transported over large distances, acting as pollutants that affect adjacent and distant downwind communities and environments. Fire emissions are a complicated mixture of trace gases and aerosols, many of which are short‐lived and chemically reactive, and this mixture affects atmospheric composition in complex ways that are not completely understood. We present a review of the current state of knowledge of smoke aerosol emissions originating from wildfires. Satellite observations, from both passive and active instruments, are critical to providing the ability to view the large‐scale influence of fire, smoke, and their impacts. Progress in the development of fire emission estimates to regional and global chemical transport models has advanced, although significant challenges remain, such as connecting ecosystems and fuels burned with dependent atmospheric chemistry. Knowledge of the impact of smoke on radiation, clouds, and precipitation has progressed and is an essential topical research area. However, current measurements and parameterizations are not adequate to describe the impacts on clouds of smoke particles (e.g., CNN, INP) from fire emissions in the range of representative environmental conditions necessary to advance science or modeling. We conclude by providing recommendations to the community that we believe will advance the science and understanding of the impact of fire smoke emissions on human and environmental health, as well as feedback with climate system.

I N Sokolik↗