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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1978

Impact of Balance Of System (BOS) costs on photovoltaic power systems

The Department of Energy has developed a program to effect a large reduction in the price of photovoltaic modules, with significant progress already achieved toward the 1986 goal of 50 cents/watt (1975 dollars). Remaining elements of a P/V power system (structure, battery storage, regulation, control, and wiring) are also significant cost items. The costs of these remaining elements are commonly referred to as Balance-of-System (BOS) costs. The BOS costs are less well defined and documented than module costs. The Lewis Research Center (LeRC) in 1976/77 and with two village power experiments that will be installed in 1978. The costs were divided into five categories and analyzed. A regression analysis was performed to determine correlations of BOS Costs per peak watt, with power size for these photovoltaic systems. The statistical relationship may be used for flat-plate, DC systems ranging from 100 to 4,000 peak watts. A survey of suppliers was conducted for comparison with the predicted BOS cost relationship.

Hein, G. F.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Cost comparisons for the use of nonterrestrial materials in space manufacturing of large structures

This paper presents results of a study sponsored by NASA to evaluate the relative merits of constructing solar power satellites (SPS) using resources obtained from the earth and from the moon. Three representative lunar resources utilization (LRU) concepts are developed and compared with a previously defined earth baseline concept. Economic assessment of the alternatives includes cost determination, economic threshold sensitivity to manufacturing cost variations, cost uncertainties, program funding schedule, and present value of costs. Results indicate that LRU for space construction is competitive with the earth baseline approach for a program requiring 100,000 metric tons per year of completed satellites. LRU can reduce earth-launched cargo requirements to less than 10% of that needed to build satellites exclusively from earth materials. LRU is potentially more cost-effective than earth-derived material utilization, due to significant reductions in both transportation and manufacturing costs. Because of uncertainties, cost-effectiveness cannot be ascertained with great confidence. The probability of LRU attaining a lower total program cost within the 30-year program appears to range from 57 to 93%.

Bock, E. H.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Cost-minimized aircraft trajectories

For aircraft operating over fixed range, operating costs are basically sum of fuel cost and time cost; but determining minimum cost trajectory can be complex. Program optimizes trajectories with respect to cost function that is based on weighed sum of fuel cost and time cost. Minimum fuel, minimum time, and various delay trajectories are obtained by specifying particular values for fuel and time cost factors.

Lee, H.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Flat plate vs. concentrator solar photovoltaic cells - A manufacturing cost analysis

The choice of which photovoltaic system (flat plate or concentrator) to use for utilizing solar cells to generate electricity depends mainly on the cost. A detailed, comparative manufacturing cost analysis of the two types of systems is presented. Several common assumptions, i.e., cell thickness, interest rate, power rate, factory production life, polysilicon cost, and direct labor rate are utilized in this analysis. Process sequences, cost variables, and sensitivity analyses have been studied, and results of the latter show that the most important parameters which determine manufacturing costs are concentration ratio, manufacturing volume, and cell efficiency. The total cost per watt of the flat plate solar cell is $1.45, and that of the concentrator solar cell is $1.85, the higher cost being due to the increased process complexity and material costs.

Granon, L. A.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Space Station needs, attributes and architectural options, volume 2, book 3: Cost and programmatics

The cost and programmatic considerations which integrate mission requirements and architectural options into a cohesive system for exploitation of space opportunities within affordable limits are discussed. The mission requirements, baseline architecture, a top level baseline schedule, and acquisition costs are summarized. The work breakdown structure (WBS) used to structure the program, and the WBS dictionary are included. The costing approach used, including the operation of the primary costing tool, the SPACE cost model are described. The rationale for the choice of cost estimating relationships is given and costs at the module level are shown. Detailed costs at the subsystem level are shown. The baseline schedule and annual funding profiles are provided. Alternate schedules are developed to provide different funding profiles. Alternate funding sources are discussed and foreign and contractor participation is outlined. The results of the benefit analysis are given and the accrued benefits deriving from an implemented space station program are outlined.

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NASA NTRS1984

Flat-plate module efficiency versus cost tradeoffs

The Five Year Research Plan energy cost methodology and in depth analyses based on the extensive data that are relevant to PV systems are used to facilitate the accomplishment of the $0.15/kWh energy cost goal. An equation is given for the five year energy cost methodology. The allocation guidelines are designed to be consistent with flat solar array (FSA) milestones for module cost, module efficiency, and the programmatic goal for energy cost. They are research targets that appear to be achievable, given prior accomplishments and planned activities in the areas of low cost silicon purification, low cost sheet material, high efficiency cell processing, low cost, long life encapsulants, and automated fabrication method. Extensive sensitivity analysis work has been performed that shows that these guidelines represent an efficient way to meet the intent of the DOE program.

Aster, R. W.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Preliminary design and cost of a 1-megawatt solar-pumped iodide laser space-to-space transmission station

A preliminary conceptual design of a space-based solar pumped iodide laser emitting 1 megawatt of laser power for space-to-space power transmission is described. A near parabolic solar collector focuses sunlight onto the t-C4F9I (perfluoro-t butyl iodide) lasant within a transverse flow optical cavity. Using waste heat, a thermal system was designed to supply compressor and auxiliary power. System components were designed with weight and cost estimates assigned. Although cost is very approximate, the cost comparison of individual system components leads to valuable insights for future research. In particular, it was found that laser efficiency was not a dominant cost or weight factor, the dominant factor being the laser cavity and laser transmission optics. The manufacturing cost was approx. two thirds of the total cost with transportation to orbit the remainder. The flowing nonrenewable lasant comprised 20% of the total life cycle cost of the system and thus was not a major cost factor. The station mass was 92,000 kg without lasant, requiring approx. four shuttle flights to low Earth orbit where an orbital transfer vehicle will transport it to the final altitude of 6378 km.

Deyoung, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Managing Information On Costs

Cost Management Model, CMM, software tool for planning, tracking, and reporting costs and information related to costs. Capable of estimating costs, comparing estimated to actual costs, performing "what-if" analyses on estimates of costs, and providing mechanism to maintain data on costs in format oriented to management. Number of supportive cost methods built in: escalation rates, production-learning curves, activity/event schedules, unit production schedules, set of spread distributions, tables of rates and factors defined by user, and full arithmetic capability. Import/export capability possible with 20/20 Spreadsheet available on Data General equipment. Program requires AOS/VS operating system available on Data General MV series computers. Written mainly in FORTRAN 77 but uses SGU (Screen Generation Utility).

Taulbee, Zoe A.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Model reduction by weighted Component Cost Analysis

Component Cost Analysis considers any given system driven by a white noise process as an interconnection of different components, and assigns a metric called 'component cost' to each component. These component costs measure the contribution of each component to a predefined quadratic cost function. A reduced-order model of the given system may be obtained by deleting those components that have the smallest component costs. The theory of Component Cost Analysis is extended to include finite-bandwidth colored noises. The results also apply when actuators have dynamics of their own. Closed-form analytical expressions of component costs are also derived for a mechanical system described by its modal data. This is very useful to compute the modal costs of very high order systems. A numerical example for MINIMAST system is presented.

Kim, Jae H.↗

NASA NTRS1990

The design-to-cost manifold

A mathematical technique which both quantifies the design-to-cost process and the mass/complexity issue is presented. A simplified approximation of the PRICE H production-production cost is used to generate a dual set of differential equations which define the directions of maximum and minimum cost change over (mass, complexity) space. The equations are solved in closed form to obtain the one-dimensional design-to-cost and design-for-cost spaces. Preliminary results indicate that cost is relatively insensitive to changes in mass and that the reduction of complexity, both in the manufacturing process and in the spacecraft itself, is dominant in reducing cost. Two major objections to the design-to-cost method are discussed.

Dean, Edwin B.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Definition and preliminary design of the Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS) phase 1. Volume 3: Program cost estimates

Cost estimates for phase C/D of the laser atmospheric wind sounder (LAWS) program are presented. This information provides a framework for cost, budget, and program planning estimates for LAWS. Volume 3 is divided into three sections. Section 1 details the approach taken to produce the cost figures, including the assumptions regarding the schedule for phase C/D and the methodology and rationale for costing the various work breakdown structure (WBS) elements. Section 2 shows a breakdown of the cost by WBS element, with the cost divided in non-recurring and recurring expenditures. Note that throughout this volume the cost is given in 1990 dollars, with bottom line totals also expressed in 1988 dollars (1 dollar(88) = 0.93 1 dollar(90)). Section 3 shows a breakdown of the cost by year. The WBS and WBS dictionary are included as an attachment to this report.

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NASA NTRS1992

The influence of lunar propellant production on the cost-effectiveness of cislunar transportation systems

It is well known that propellants produced at the points of destination such as the Moon or Mars will help the economy of space transportation, particularly if round trips with a crew are involved. The construction and operation of a lunar base shortly after the turn of the century is one of the space programs under serious consideration at the present time. Space transportation is one of the major cost drivers. With present technology, if expendable launchers were employed, the specific transportation costs of one-way cargo flights would be approximately 10,000 dollars/kg (1985) at life-cycle cumulative 100,000 ton payload to the lunar surface. A fully reusable space transportation system using lunar oxygen and Earth-produced liquid hydrogen (LH2) would reduce the specific transportation costs by one order of magnitude to less than 1000 dollars/kg at the same payload volume. Another case of primary interest is the delivery of construction material and consumables from the lunar surface to the assembly site of space solar power plants in geostationary orbit (GEO). If such a system were technically and economically feasible, a cumulative payload of about 1 million tons or more would be required. At this level a space freighter system could deliver this material from Earth for about 300 dollars/kg (1985) to GEO. A lunar space transportation system using lunar oxygen and a fuel mixture of 50 percent Al and 50 percent LH2 (that has to come from Earth) could reduce the specific transportation costs to less than half, approximately 150 dollars/kg. If only lunar oxygen were available, these costs would come down to 200 dollars/kg. This analysis indicates a sizable reduction of the transportation burden on this type of mission. It should not be overlooked, however, that there are several uncertainties in such calculations. It is quite difficult at this point to calculate the cost of lunar-produced O and/or Al. This will be a function of production rate and life-cycle length. In quoting any cost of this nature, it is very important to state the cumulative transportation volume, since this is a very sensitive parameter. Nevertheless, cost models must be developed now to understand fully the interdependencies of a large number of parameters and to provide the best possible data for planning purposes. Without such data, mission modes and vehicle designs or sizes cannot be selected intelligently.

Koelle, H. H.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Space Station Furnace Facility. Volume 3: Program cost estimate

The approach used to estimate costs for the Space Station Furnace Facility (SSFF) is based on a computer program developed internally at Teledyne Brown Engineering (TBE). The program produces time-phased estimates of cost elements for each hardware component, based on experience with similar components. Engineering estimates of the degree of similarity or difference between the current project and the historical data is then used to adjust the computer-produced cost estimate and to fit it to the current project Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). The SSFF Concept as presented at the Requirements Definition Review (RDR) was used as the base configuration for the cost estimate. This program incorporates data on costs of previous projects and the allocation of those costs to the components of one of three, time-phased, generic WBS's. Input consists of a list of similar components for which cost data exist, number of interfaces with their type and complexity, identification of the extent to which previous designs are applicable, and programmatic data concerning schedules and miscellaneous data (travel, off-site assignments). Output is program cost in labor hours and material dollars, for each component, broken down by generic WBS task and program schedule phase.

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NASA NTRS1991

Designing for cost

Parametric cost analysis is presently defined as the generation and application of equations to cost analysis; equations defining cost as a function of system-design parameters, performance parameters, or engineering process parameters, constitute a valuable tool for design-to-cost efforts. Cost sensitivity is expressed through the partial derivatives of these functions, furnishing insight into the magnitude and direction of cost change for given parameter changes. The robust design method thus obtained is a systematic and efficient approach for determining the near-optimum set of design parameters for cost, which highlights important factors affecting operation and performance as well as cost.

Dean, Edwin B.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Cost estimating methods for advanced space systems

NASA is responsible for developing much of the nation's future space technology. Cost estimates for new programs are required early in the planning process so that decisions can be made accurately. Because of the long lead times required to develop space hardware, the cost estimates are frequently required 10 to 15 years before the program delivers hardware. The system design in conceptual phases of a program is usually only vaguely defined and the technology used is so often state-of-the-art or beyond. These factors combine to make cost estimating for conceptual programs very challenging. This paper describes an effort to develop parametric cost estimating methods for space systems in the conceptual design phase. The approach is to identify variables that drive cost such as weight, quantity, development culture, design inheritance and time. The nature of the relationships between the driver variables and cost will be discussed. In particular, the relationship between weight and cost will be examined in detail. A theoretical model of cost will be developed and tested statistically against a historical database of major research and development projects.

Cyr, Kelley↗

NASA NTRS2000

Scheduling and Estimating the Cost of Crew Time

In a previous paper, Theory and Application of the Equivalent System Mass Metric, Julie Levri, David Vaccari, and Alan Drysdale developed a method for computing the Equivalent System Mass (ESM) of crew time. ESM is an analog of cost. The suggested approach has been applied but seems to impose too high a cost for small additional requirements for crew time. The proposed method is based on the minimum average cost of crew time. In this work, the scheduling of crew time is examined in more detail, using suggested crew time allocations and daily work schedules. Crew tasks are typically assigned using priorities, which can also be used to construct a crew time demand curve mapping the value or cost per hour versus the total number of hours worked. The cost of additional crew time can be estimated by considering the intersection and shapes of the demand and supply curves. If e assume a mathematical form for the demand curve, a revised method can be developed for computing the cost or ESM of crew time. This method indicates a low cost per hour for small additional requirements for crew time and an increasing cost per hour for larger requirements.

Jones, Harry↗

NASA NTRS2003

Weight and the Future of Space Flight Hardware Cost Modeling

Weight has been used as the primary input variable for cost estimating almost as long as there have been parametric cost models. While there are good reasons for using weight, serious limitations exist. These limitations have been addressed by multi-variable equations and trend analysis in models such as NAFCOM, PRICE, and SEER; however, these models have not be able to address the significant time lags that can occur between the development of similar space flight hardware systems. These time lags make the cost analyst's job difficult because insufficient data exists to perform trend analysis, and the current set of parametric models are not well suited to accommodating process improvements in space flight hardware design, development, build and test. As a result, people of good faith can have serious disagreement over the cost for new systems. To address these shortcomings, new cost modeling approaches are needed. The most promising approach is process based (sometimes called activity) costing. Developing process based models will require a detailed understanding of the functions required to produce space flight hardware combined with innovative approaches to estimating the necessary resources. Particularly challenging will be the lack of data at the process level. One method for developing a model is to combine notional algorithms with a discrete event simulation and model changes to the total cost as perturbations to the program are introduced. Despite these challenges, the potential benefits are such that efforts should be focused on developing process based cost models.

Prince, Frank A.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Increasing Density and Reducing Costs of Data Acquisition

There are a number of reasons why it is important to increase the density of data acquisition functions. Sensor fusion seeks to integrate large numbers of sensors into a decision network. Addition of health monitoring functions may incur additional sensor requirements. But at the same time, it is important to reduce the per-channel costs of data acquisition systems. Often the most significant cost is the management of data acquisition networks, which incurs substantial costs associated with transducer installation, configuration, calibration, and maintenance. Alternatives that lower the cost of the transducer system and reduce the data acquisition system channel count will directly impact initial system costs. Other techniques that affect maintenance and operating costs will contribute to reducing life cycle costs. This paper describes work undertaken to explore alternative architectures for lowering the cost per transducer function using a MEMS-based accelerometer as the model.

Schmalzel, J. L.↗