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Presentation given at the August 2024 Western Planner WyoPASS conference on the evolution of energy development in the state of Wyoming and opportunity for planning professionals to be aware of their role in development.
In this article we present a comparative atomic level study analyzing the vibrational excitation and dissociation of molecular nitrogen due to N 2 ( 1 Σ g + )+N( 4 S u ) and N 2 ( 1 Σ g + )+N 2 ( 1 Σ g + ) interactions governed by independently developed potential energy surfaces at the University of Minnesota and NASA Ames Research Center. Further, vibrational excitation was studied for N 2 +N 2 interactions from T=10000 to 25000 K and for N 2 +N from T=5000 to 30000 K. Nonequilibrium dissociation is studied from T=10000 to 30000 K under the quasi-steady-state condition for N 2 +N 2 and N 2 +N interactions. Finally, an inviscid Mach 20 dissociating nitrogen flow over a cylinder with a Knudsen number of 0.015 is carried out to study the impact of molecular interactions predicted by independently developed potential energy surfaces on a canonical hypersonic flow.
This case study, developed by Net Zero World Initiative and the Government of Argentina, examines least-cost decarbonization pathways for Tierra del Fuego, Argentina, utilizing renewable energy, energy storage, hydrogen, and other decarbonization technologies. Being the second largest natural gas producing province in Argentina, Tierra del Fuego has historically relied on natural gas for their energy sector needs. As they look at possible decarbonization pathways, they face challenges due to extreme weather conditions, isolation from the mainland, and low population density. The study utilizes the Engage web application for capacity expansion modeling, addressing both business-as-usual (BAU) and accelerated decarbonization scenarios, with varying degrees of electrification and carbon emission constraints. Key findings reveal that an interconnection with the mainland, high contribution of wind energy development on Tierra del Fuego, energy storage, and hydrogen, coupled with energy-efficient electrification technologies (such as heat pumps and electric vehicles), emerge as the most cost-effective solutions to decarbonize, significantly reducing carbon emissions and total system energy costs. The study explores self-generation and interconnection alternatives, demonstrating the economic advantage of an interconnection of Tierra del Fuego with the mainland, as an alternative to 100% local generation. Sensitivity analyses on wind data sources and temporal resolutions, as well as projected natural gas prices, highlight the influence of external factors on the feasibility of decarbonization pathways. Challenges identified include the practicality of phasing out natural gas, economic uncertainty, cost implications of long-term storage technologies as wind energy increases, and geographical limitations for wind generation. The case study concludes that while substantial emissions reductions can be achieved by 2050, and be competitive with conventional pathways, achieving a full 100% decarbonization by 2050 would entail higher costs, particularly due to the significant reliance on storage solutions with higher contribution of wind energy. The analysis offers valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders in Argentina's energy sector, emphasizing the importance of strategic planning, investment in renewable energy and storage technologies, and careful consideration of local conditions in the transition towards Net Zero targets.
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), funded through the Climate Technology and Change Network (CTCN), has provided technical assistance to key energy sector entities in South Africa to examine untapped demand-side management potential. NREL partnered with the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) and included key South Africa stakeholders: Eskom, the South African National Energy Development Institute (SANEDI), and the Department of Mineral and Resources and Energy (DMRE), including the CTCN National Designated Entity (NDE), the Department of Science and Innovation (DSI). South Africa is currently experiencing an energy crisis with extensive load shedding. While the load shedding crisis in South Africa is a supply side problem, demand-side management provides opportunities to achieve energy efficiency and to reduce peak demand. DSM also has huge potential to help alleviate load shedding, which is a last resort form of DSM.
Microgrids are decentralized power production systems, where the energy production and consumption are very close to each other. Microgrids generally exploit renewable energy sources, encountering a problem of storage, as the power production from solar and wind is intermittent. This research presents a new integrated methodology and discusses a comparison of batteries and pumped storage hydropower (PSH) as energy storage systems with the integration of wind and solar PV energy sources, which are the major upcoming technologies in the renewable energy sector. We implemented the simulator and optimizer model (HOMER), which develops energy availability usage to obtain optimized renewable energy integration in the microgrid, showing its economic added value. Two scenarios are run with this model—one considers batteries as an energy storage technology and the other considers PSH—in order to obtain the best economic and technical results for the analyzed microgrid. The economic analysis showed a lower net present cost (NPC) and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for the microgrid with PSH. The results showed that the microgrid with the storage of PSH was economical, with an NPC of 45.8 M€ and an LCOE of 0.379 €/kWh, in comparison with the scenario with batteries, which had an NPC of 95.2 M€ and an LCOE of 0.786 €/kWh. The role of storage was understood by differentiating the data into different seasons, using a Python model. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis was conducted by varying the capital cost multiplier of solar PV and wind turbines to obtain the best optimal economic solutions.
High resource risk and high capital costs are key barriers to scaling up geothermal energy development globally. Reducing both resource risk and costs has for a long time been a priority area of both research institutions and industry, particularly when it comes to new types of geothermal resources. The DErisking Exploration for geothermal Plays in magmatic Environments (DEEPEN) project aimed to contribute to this goal through increasing the probability of success when drilling for geothermal fluids in magmatic systems.
States in the Northeast United States have the ambitious goal of producing more than 22 GW of offshore wind energy in the coming decades. The infrastructure associated with offshore wind energy development is expected to modify marine habitats and potentially alter the ecosystem services. Species distribution models were constructed for a group of fish and macroinvertebrate taxa resident in the Northeast US Continental Shelf marine ecosystem. These models were analyzed to provide baseline context for impact assessment of lease areas in the Middle Atlantic Bight designated for renewable wind energy installations. Using random forest machine learning, models based on occurrence and biomass were constructed for 93 species providing seasonal depictions of their habitat distributions. We developed a scoring index to characterize lease area habitat use for each species. Subsequently, groups of species were identified that reflect varying levels of lease area habitat use ranging across high, moderate, low, and no reliance on the lease area habitats. Among the species with high to moderate reliance were black sea bass ( Centropristis striata ), summer flounder ( Paralichthys dentatus ), and Atlantic menhaden ( Brevoortia tyrannus ), which are important fisheries species in the region. Potential for impact was characterized by the number of species with habitat dependencies associated with lease areas and these varied with a number of continuous gradients. Habitats that support high biomass were distributed more to the northeast, while high occupancy habitats appeared to be further from the coast. There was no obvious effect of the size of the lease area on the importance of associated habitats. Model results indicated that physical drivers and lower trophic level indicators might strongly control the habitat distribution of ecologically and commercially important species in the wind lease areas. Therefore, physical and biological oceanography on the continental shelf proximate to wind energy infrastructure development should be monitored for changes in water column structure and the productivity of phytoplankton and zooplankton and the effects of these changes on the trophic system.
The limitedness of the nonrenewable local energy resources in Israel, even in the background of the later gas fields’ findings, continues to force the state to devote various efforts towards ‘green’ energy development. These efforts include installations, both for the solar and for wind energy, thus improving the diversity of energy sources. While the standard discounted cash flow (DCF) method using the net present value (NPV) criterion is extensively adopted to evaluate investments, the standard DCF method is inappropriate for the rapidly changing investment climate and for the managerial flexibility in investment decisions. In recent years, the real options analysis (ROA) technique has been widely applied in many studies for the valuation of renewable energy investment projects. Taking into account the above background, we apply, in this study, the real options analysis approach for the valuation of wind energy turbines and apply it to the analysis of wind energy economic potential in Israel, which is the context of our work. We hypothesize that due to nature of wind energy production uncertainties, the ROA method is better than the alternative. The novelty of this paper includes the following: real world wind statistics of the Merom Golan site in Israel (velocity 3.73 m/s, with a standard deviation of 2.03 m/s), a realistic power generation estimation (power generation of 1205.84 kW with a standard deviation of about 0.5% in annual value which is worth about 1.3 M$ per annum), and an economic model to evaluate the profitability of such a project. We thus discuss the existing challenges of diversifying renewable energy sources in Israel by adding wind installations. Our motivation is to introduce a method which will allow investors and officials to take into account uncertainties when deciding in investing in such wind installations. The outcomes of the paper, which are obtained using the method of Weibull statistics and the Black–Scholes ROA technique, include the result that market price volatility adds to the uncertainties much more than any wind fluctuations, provided that the analysis is integrated over a long enough time.
This webinar focuses on community choice aggregation (CCA) as a potential strategy for local governments to achieve their clean energy goals. The webinar provides an overview of what CCA is, how it works, and considerations for local governments interested in establishing or participating in a CCA program. The webinar will highlight case studies from CCAs across the U.S. that support local renewable energy development. This webinar provides one AICP CM continuing education credit. Who: Ben Butterwoth, Senior Associate, The Cadmus Group; Megan Lynch, Analyst, The Cadmus Group; Jenna Famular, Communications Manager, MCE Clean Energy; Meghan Shaw, Outreach Director for Cambridge Energy Alliance, City of Cambridge; Daniel Falk, Project Manager, The Solar Foundation
Offshore wind energy development along the East Coast of the US is proceeding quickly as a result of large areas with an excellent wind resource, low water depths and proximity to large electricity markets. Careful planning of wind turbine deployments in these offshore wind energy lease areas (LA) is required to maximize power output and to minimize wake losses between neighboring wind farms as well as those internal to each wind farm. Here, we used microscale wind modeling with two wake parameterizations to evaluate the potential annual energy production (AEP) and wake losses in the different LA areas, and we developed and applied a levelized cost of energy (LCoE) model to quantify the impact of different wind turbine layouts on LCoE. The modeling illustrated that if the current suite of LA is subject to deployment of 15 MW wind turbines at a spacing of 1.85 km, they will generate 4 to 4.6% of total national electricity demand. The LCoE ranged from $68 to $102/MWh depending on the precise layout selected, which is cost competitive with many other generation sources. The scale of the wind farms that will be deployed greatly exceed those currently operating and mean that wake-induced power losses are considerable but still relatively poorly constrained. AEP and LCoE exhibited significant dependence on the precise wake model applied. For the largest LA, the AEP differed by over 10% depending on the wake model used, leading to a $10/MWh difference in LCoE for the wind turbine layout with 1.85 km spacing.
Low level jets (LLJs) in the atmosphere exhibit a local windspeed maximum in the boundary layer, with positive shear beneath the jet and negative shear above the jet. Wind turbines tend to experience increased loads with varying wake recovery characteristics in the presence of an LLJ, therefore understanding the mechanism and impact of LLJs is crucial to wind energy development. The US Mid-Atlantic offshore region is a huge potential wind energy resource, yet LLJs in this area are poorly understood. In particular, the coastal offshore environment does not exhibit the same diurnal cycle that leads to strong LLJs in the well-characterized Great Plains region. In this study, we use the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) plus lidar buoy data to identify case studies for LLJ events in 2020 in the New York Bight. A reduced order model is presented to explain the onset of these events based on the competing effects of baroclinicity and eddy diffusivity. Finally, using the macro-scale WRF, we drive a micro-scale large eddy simulation (LES) to generate a more detailed characterization of the Marine Boundary Layer during an LLJ. Gaining a better understanding of LLJs and their impacts on offshore wind in the mid-Atlantic is crucial for a transition toward renewable energy.
Marine energy resources could promote clean energy and resilience of coastal and island microgrids, and thus, these applications are a key future market for marine energy development. To demonstrate these benefits, this paper illustrates how inclusion of wave resources into energy resilience solutions can improve overall grid efficiency and sustainability, as well as maintain electricity supply during grid outages. The paper describes a case study evaluation of the potential to add wave energy to the Moloka'i grid as Hawaii strives to meet a 100% clean energy target. The Microgrid Component Optimization for Resilience tool is used to simulate operation in off-grid conditions and size different combinations of wave, solar photovoltaic (PV), wind, storage, and fuel resources required to meet resilience objectives. This research investigates how including wave resources in a microgrid contributes to reducing or eliminating biofuel generation, producing a zero-greenhouse gas emission profile in the latter case, and avoiding the over-sizing of PV and battery systems to accommodate periods of unavailability or high demand. Insight from this paper supports the value proposition of wave resources for future markets and informs the relationship between marine generators and microgrids or isolated grids.
Marine energy resources could promote clean energy and resilience of coastal and island microgrids, and thus, these applications are a key future market for marine energy development. To demonstrate these benefits, this paper illustrates how inclusion of wave resources into energy resilience solutions can improve overall grid efficiency and sustainability, as well as maintain electricity supply during grid outages. The paper describes a case study evaluation of the potential to add wave energy to the Moloka’i grid as Hawaii strives to meet a 100% clean energy target. The Microgrid Component Optimization for Resilience tool is used to simulate operation in off- grid conditions and size different combinations of wave, solar photovoltaic (PV), wind, storage, and fuel resources required to meet resilience objectives. This research in- vestigates how including wave resources in a microgrid contributes to reducing biofuel generation, producing a zero-greenhouse gas emission profile, and avoiding the over-sizing of PV and battery systems to accommodate periods of unavailability or high demand. Insight from this paper supports the value proposition of wave resources for future markets and informs the relationship between marine generators and microgrids or isolated grids.
The University of Rochester’s Laboratory for Laser Energetics is targeting laser-driven inertial confinement fusion, as part of National Nuclear Security Administration’s Stockpile Stewardship Program and in the quest for clean sources of energy. The Laboratory for Laser Energetics (LLE) is home to two extremely powerful lasers—OMEGA and OMEGA EP—and researchers are using them to explore laser-driven inertial confinement fusion (ICF). ICF involves compressing a small amount of fuel consisting of hydrogen isotopes, deuterium (D), and tritium (T), and heating it to temperatures greater than the center of stars. “When these conditions are reached, the fuel undergoes fusion—releasing enormous energy that can be used for research relevant to the National Nuclear Security Administration’s (NNSA) Stockpile Stewardship Program (SSP) and to drive carbon-free power plants,” explains Valeri Goncharov, distinguished scientist and director of the Theory Division at LLE. LLE was established at the University of Rochester in 1970 and is the largest U.S. Department of Energy university-based research program in the nation, supported by the National Nuclear Security Administration as part of its Stockpile Stewardship Program (SSP). “As a center for exploring the interaction of intense radiation with matter, LLE is a unique national resource for research and education in science and technology,” says Goncharov. “Our current research includes exploring fusion for the SSP program and as a future source of energy, developing new laser and materials technologies, and pursuing a better understanding of high-energy-density phenomena.”
In 2021, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) began the Energy Earthshots initiatives to accelerate breakthroughs of reliable clean energy solutions within the next 10 years. In 2022, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was asked by the DOE Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) to provide analysis for developing Energy Earthshot targets for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), human-made underground reservoirs that extract thermal energy from the earth for electricity generation and/or heating applications. The Enhanced Geothermal Shot analysis is based on the technology assumptions in the 2019 GTO report GeoVision: Harnessing the Heat Beneath Our Feet. For Earthshot, we updated some of the technology cost and performance assumptions based on recent technology advances and updated the EGS resource potential to include more detailed analysis. We used the updated EGS supply cost curves to forecast the amount of geothermal electricity generation that could be deployed in the US by 2050 using a capacity expansion model. The results were used to develop a cost target for EGS. On September 8th, 2022, the Enhanced Geothermal Shot was announced. Its target - reduce the cost of EGS by 90%, to $45 per megawatt hour by 2035. This paper summarizes the cost and resource assumptions used in the Enhanced Geothermal Shot. It describes the assumptions used in the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model to forecast geothermal deployment and discusses the results.
In 2021, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) began the Energy Earthshots initiatives to accelerate breakthroughs of reliable clean energy solutions within the next 10 years. In 2022, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was asked by the DOE Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) to provide analysis for developing Energy Earthshot targets for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), human-made underground reservoirs that extract thermal energy from the earth for electricity generation and/or heating applications. The Enhanced Geothermal Shot analysis is based on the technology assumptions in the 2019 GTO report GeoVision: Harnessing the Heat Beneath Our Feet. For Earthshot, we updated some of the technology cost and performance assumptions based on recent technology advances and updated the EGS resource potential to include more detailed analysis. We used the updated EGS supply cost curves to forecast the amount of geothermal electricity generation that could be deployed in the US by 2050 using a capacity expansion model. The results were used to develop a cost target for EGS. On September 8th, 2022, the Enhanced Geothermal Shot was announced. Its target - reduce the cost of EGS by 90%, to $45 per megawatt hour by 2035. This paper summarizes the cost and resource assumptions used in the Enhanced Geothermal Shot. It describes the assumptions used in the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model to forecast geothermal deployment and discusses the results.
India's national renewable energy zones for wind power and solar photovoltaics (PV) could become regional green power resources if South Asian countries liberalize their rules for cross-border energy trading (CBET). Similarly, Nepal's wealth of hydropower could be more valuable to Nepal and its neighbors with greater market integration. These are the findings of a study by the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) that tested trading scenarios for wind power, solar power, and hydropower among Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. The NREL study found that wheeling power through India's interstate transmission system (ISTS) could be just as efficient operationally as building new high-voltage direct current (HVDC) lines from the renewable energy zones directly to the importing country. This means that CBET integration could substitute for new long-distance HVDC transmission - which could cost billions of dollars - while delivering to all participating countries the same benefits for renewable energy development and decarbonization.
Abstract The Repurposing Offshore Infrastructure for Clean Energy (ROICE) Program, a collaboration of the energy industry and University of Houston, proposes extending the life of up to 1,500 oil and gas platforms in the Outer Continental Shelf of the Gulf of Mexico, USA. Rather than decommissioning or converting them to underwater reefs at the end of their oil and gas production phase, the platforms could be transformed for 10–20+ years of renewable energy development, such as green hydrogen production or carbon dioxide injection and storage, resulting in significant economic, environmental, and social benefits. ROICE has already published papers on the technical and regulatory considerations for such repurposing projects. This paper focuses on the commercial considerations needed to ensure ROICE projects are economically viable and sustainable for all involved. There are potentially many entities that can come together to progress a repurposing project, including oil and gas asset owners, operators, investors, developers, contractors, manufacturers, and regulators. This paper looks at possible combinations of these entities in a ROICE project team and the various commercial agreements that will be needed to ensure a mutually successful outcome. The paper proposes adapting existing industry agreements and templates to suit, including asset transfer agreements (ATA), asset purchase agreements (APA) and joint purchasing agreements (JOA). An ATA or APA can be drafted to address the obligations and issues involved in the sale or transfer of an existing oil and gas facility to the developer, operator, non-operating interests, and financial investors in a ROICE project, while a JOA can be drafted to govern the rights, obligations, and financial requirements of the parties involved in the development and operation.