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At least 181 records · Page 10

A Multi-Analysis Approach for Estimating Regional Health Impacts from the 2017 Northern California Wildfires

In the evening of October 8 and early hours of October 9, 2017, high winds in Northern California downed trees and power lines, igniting some of the most devastating wildfires the state had seen, and within hours unhealthy air quality impacted millions of people. We simulated these air quality conditions using fire detection information from the MODIS, VIIRS, and GOES-16 ABI satellite instruments, and applying a set of three WRF–CMAQ simulations, one data fusion, and three machine learning methods. We investigated using the 5-min available GOES-16 fire detection data to simulate timing of fire activity to allocate emissions hourly for the WRF-CMAQ air quality modeling system. Interestingly, this approach did not necessarily improve results compared to the baseline case, which used a default time profile. However, this approach was key to simulating the initial 12-hr explosive fire activity and smoke impacts. The WRF-CMAQ simulations compared well with observational data for the October 8-15 time period and tended to overestimate concentrations October 16-20. To improve these results, we applied three machine learning algorithms. We also had a unique opportunity to evaluate results with temporary monitors deployed specifically for wildfires, and performance was markedly different. For example, at the permanent monitoring locations, the WRF-CMAQ simulations had a Pearson correlation of 0.65, and the data fusion approach improved this (Pearson correlation = 0.95), while at the temporary monitor locations across the WRF-CMAQ, data fusion, and machine learning datasets, the best Pearson correlation was 0.5. The data fusion and machine learning results were biased low and WRF-CMAQ results were biased high. Finally, we applied the optimized PM2.5 exposure estimate in a short-term exposure-response function. Total estimated mortality attributable to PM2.5 exposure during the smoke episode was 83 (95% confidence interval: 0, 196) with 47% of these deaths attributable to wildland fire smoke.

O'Neill, Susan↗

Comparing the effectiveness of software testing strategies

This study compares the results of code reading, functional testing, and structural testing in three aspects of software testing: fault detection effectiveness, fault detection cost, and classes of faults detected. Thirty two professional programmers and 42 advanced students applied the three techniques to four unit-sized programs in a fractional experimental design. The major results of this study are the following: (1) With the professional programmers, code reading detected more software faults and had a higher detection rate than did functional or structural testing, while functional testing detected more faults than did structural testing, but functional and structural testing were not different in fault detection rate. (2) In one advanced student subject group, code reading and functional testing were not different in faults found, but were superior to structural testing, while in the other advanced student subject group there was no difference among the techniques. (3) With the advanced student subjects, the three techniques were not different in fault deteciton rate. (4) Number of faults observed, fault detection rate, and total effort in detection depended on the type of software tested. (5) Code reading detected more interface faults than did the other methods. (6) Functional testing detected more control faults than did the other methods. (7) When asked to estimate the percentage of faults detected, code readers gave the most accurate estimates while functional testers gave the least accurate estimates. Appendix B includes the source code for the word.

Basili, Victor R.↗

Shape restricted additive hazards models: Monotone, unimodal, and U‐shape hazard functions

We consider estimation of the semiparametric additive hazards model with an unspecified baseline hazard function where the effect of a continuous covariate has a specific shape but otherwise unspecified. Such estimation is particularly useful for a unimodal hazard function, where the hazard is monotone increasing and monotone decreasing with an unknown mode. A popular approach of the proportional hazards model is limited in such setting due to the complicated structure of the partial likelihood. Our model defines a quadratic loss function, and its simple structure allows a global Hessian matrix that does not involve parameters. Thus, once the global Hessian matrix is computed, a standard quadratic programming method can be applicable by profiling all possible locations of the mode. However, the quadratic programming method may be inefficient to handle a large global Hessian matrix in the profiling algorithm due to a large dimensionality, where the dimension of the global Hessian matrix and number of hypothetical modes are the same order as the sample size. We propose the quadratic pool adjacent violators algorithm to reduce computational costs. The proposed algorithm is extended to the model with a time‐dependent covariate with monotone or U‐shape hazard function. In simulation studies, our proposed method improves computational speed compared to the quadratic programming method, with bias and mean square error reductions. We analyze data from a recent cardiovascular study.

Mathematical & Computational Biology↗

The influence of physical and algorithmic factors on simulated far-field waveforms and source–time functions of underground explosions using unsupervised machine learning

SUMMARY Characterizing explosion sources and differentiating between earthquake and underground explosions using distributed seismic networks becomes non-trivial when explosions are detonated in cavities or heterogeneous ground material. Moreover, there is little understanding of how changes in subsurface physical properties affect the far-field waveforms we record and use to infer information about the source. Simulations of underground explosions and the resultant ground motions can be a powerful tool to systematically explore how different subsurface properties affect far-field waveform features, but there are added variables that arise from how we choose to model the explosions that can confound interpretation. To assess how both subsurface properties and algorithmic choices affect the seismic wavefield and the estimated source functions, we ran a series of 2-D axisymmetric non-linear numerical explosion experiments and wave propagation simulations that explore a wide array of parameters. We then inverted the synthetic far-field waveform data using a linear inversion scheme to estimate source–time functions (STFs) for each simulation case. We applied principal component analysis (PCA), an unsupervised machine learning method, to both the far-field waveforms and STFs to identify the most important factors that control variance in the waveform data and differences between cases. For the far-field waveforms, the largest variance occurs in the shallower radial receiver channels in the 0–50 Hz frequency band. For the STFs, both peak amplitude and rise times across different frequencies contribute to the variance. We find that the ground equation of state (i.e. lithology and rheology) and the explosion emplacement conditions (i.e. tamped versus cavity) have the greatest effect on the variance of the far-field waveforms and STFs, with the ground yield strength and fracture pressure being secondary factors. Differences in the PCA results between the far-field waveforms and STFs could possibly be due to near-field non-linearities of the source that are not accounted for in the estimation of STFs and could be associated with yield strength, fracture pressure, cavity radius and cavity shape parameters. Other algorithmic parameters are found to be less important and cause less variance in both the far-field waveforms and STFs, meaning algorithmic choices in how we model explosions are less important, which is encouraging for the further use of explosion simulations to study how physical Earth properties affect seismic waveform features and estimated STFs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Designing Estimator/Predictor Digital Phase-Locked Loops

Signal delays in equipment compensated automatically. New approach to design of digital phase-locked loop (DPLL) incorporates concepts from estimation theory and involves decomposition of closed-loop transfer function into estimator and predictor. Estimator provides recursive estimates of phase, frequency, and higher order derivatives of phase with respect to time, while predictor compensates for delay, called "transport lag," caused by PLL equipment and by DPLL computations.

Statman, J. I.↗

FunDiff: diffusion models over function spaces for physics-informed generative modeling

Recent advances in generative modeling-particularly diffusion models and flow matching-have been widely used for synthesizing discrete data such as images and videos. However, adapting these models to physical applications remains challenging, as the quantities of interest are continuous functions governed by complex physical laws. To address this, we introduce FunDiff, an efficient and robust framework for generative modeling in function spaces. FunDiff combines a latent diffusion process with a function autoencoder architecture to handle input functions with varying discretizations, generates continuous functions that can be evaluated at arbitrary locations, and seamlessly incorporate physical priors. These priors are enforced through architectural constraints or physics-informed loss functions, ensuring that generated samples satisfy fundamental physical laws. We theoretically establish minimax optimality guarantees for density estimation in function spaces, demonstrating that diffusion-based estimators achieve optimal convergence rates under suitable regularity conditions. We further demonstrate the practical effectiveness of FunDiff across diverse applications in fluid dynamics and solid mechanics. Empirical results indicate that our method can generate physically consistent samples with high fidelity to the target distribution, and exhibit robustness to noisy and low-resolution data.

Wang, Sifan [Yale University, New Haven, CT (Unite↗

nbodykit: An Open-source, Massively Parallel Toolkit for Large-scale Structure

We present nbodykit, an open-source, massively parallel Python toolkit for analyzing large-scale structure (LSS) data. Using Python bindings of the Message Passing Interface, we provide parallel implementations of many commonly used algorithms in LSS. nbodykit is both an interactive and scalable piece of scientific software, performing well in a supercomputing environment while still taking advantage of the interactive tools provided by the Python ecosystem. Existing functionality includes estimators of the power spectrum, two- and three-point correlation functions, a friends-of-friends grouping algorithm, mock catalog creation via the halo occupation distribution technique, and approximate N-body simulations via the FastPM scheme. The package also provides a set of distributed data containers, insulated from the algorithms themselves, that enables nbodykit to provide a unified treatment of both simulation and observational data sets. nbodykit can be easily deployed in a high-performance computing environment, overcoming some of the traditional difficulties of using Python on supercomputers. We provide performance benchmarks illustrating the scalability of the software. The modular, component-based approach of nbodykit allows researchers to easily build complex applications using its tools. The package is extensively documented at http://nbodykit.readthedocs.io, which also includes an interactive set of example recipes for new users to explore. As open-source software, we hope nbodykit provides a common framework for the community to use and develop in confronting the analysis challenges of future LSS surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Electron emission from nickel-alloy surfaces in cesium vapor

The cesiated electron emission was measured for three candidate electrodes for use as collectors in thermionic converters. Nickel, Inconel 600 and Hastelloy were tested with a 412 K cesium reservoir. Peak emission from the alloys was found to be comparable to that from pure nickel. Both the Inconel and the Hastelloy samples had work functions of 1.64 eV at peak emission. The minimum work functions were estimated to be 1.37 eV at a probe temperature of 750 K for Inconel and 1.40 eV for Hastelloy at 665 K. The bare work function for both alloys is estimated to be approximately the same as for pure nickel, 4.8 eV.

Manda, M.↗

Kalman filter estimation of human pilot-model parameters

The parameters of a human pilot-model transfer function are estimated by applying the extended Kalman filter to the corresponding retarded differential-difference equations in the time domain. Use of computer-generated data indicates that most of the parameters, including the implicit time delay, may be reasonably estimated in this way. When applied to two sets of experimental data obtained from a closed-loop tracking task performed by a human, the Kalman filter generated diverging residuals for one of the measurement types, apparently because of model assumption errors. Application of a modified adaptive technique was found to overcome the divergence and to produce reasonable estimates of most of the parameters.

Schiess, J. R.↗

Estimation of automobile-driver describing function from highway tests using the double steering wheel

The automobile-driver describing function for lateral position control was estimated for three subjects from frequency response analysis of straight road test results. The measurement procedure employed an instrumented full size sedan with known steering response characteristics, and equipped with a lateral lane position measuring device based on video detection of white stripe lane markings. Forcing functions were inserted through a servo driven double steering wheel coupling the driver to the steering system proper. Random appearing, Gaussian, and transient time functions were used. The quasi-linear models fitted to the random appearing input frequency response characterized the driver as compensating for lateral position error in a proportional, derivative, and integral manner. Similar parameters were fitted to the Gabor transformed frequency response of the driver to transient functions. A fourth term corresponding to response to lateral acceleration was determined by matching the time response histories of the model to the experimental results. The time histories show evidence of pulse-like nonlinear behavior during extended response to step transients which appear as high frequency remnant power.

Delp, P.↗

In-flight gyro drift rate calibration on the Viking Orbiters

The drift rates of the attitude control gyros on the Viking Orbiters were calibrated several times in flight. The process by which these rates were estimated as functions of time is novel for a space flight project, although relatively standard estimation techniques were used. The process is described fully and the results obtained from the twelve Viking single-axis gyros are analyzed. Although the possibility was explored, no significantly repeatable function of drift rate vs time or temperature was discovered; the overall mean was found to predict drift rate with acceptable accuracy.

Breckenridge, W. G.↗

Electron emission from nickel-alloy surfaces in cesium vapor

An experimental apparatus and measurement techniques are described for measuring the thermionic emission from cesium-activated materials having adequate high-temperature properties such as creep strength and corrosion resistance, which might ultimately reduce the cost of thermionic converters. The electron emission characteristics are measured for nickel, Inconel 600, and Hastelloy X probes with a 412 K cesium reservoir. It is found that the nickel alloys exhibit a peak electron emission 1.4 to 2.1 times greater than pure nickel. Both the Inconel and the Hastelloy samples have work functions of 1.64 eV at peak emission. The minimum cesiated work functions are estimated to be 1.37 eV for Inconel at a probe temperature of 750 K and 1.4 eV for Hastelloy at a probe temperature of 665 K. The bare work functions for both alloys is estimated to be about the same as for pure nickel, 4.8 eV.

Manda, M.↗

Coding the Computing Continuum: Fluid Function Execution in Heterogeneous Computing Environments

Advances in network technologies have greatly decreased barriers to accessing physically distributed computers. This newfound accessibility coincides with increasing hardware specialization, creating exciting new opportunities to dispatch workloads to the best resource for a specific purpose, rather than those that are closest or most easily accessible. We present Delta, a service designed to intelligently schedule function-based workloads across a distributed set of heterogeneous computing resources. Delta implements an extensible architecture in which different predictors and scheduling algorithms can be integrated to provide dynamically evolving estimates of function execution times on different resources-estimates that can be used to determine the most appropriate location for execution. We describe predictors for function runtime, data transfer time, and cold-start resource provisioning and configuration delay; dynamic learning methods that update predictor models over time; and scheduling strategies that take into account both function and endpoint information. We show that these methods can halve workload makespan when compared with a strategy that selects the fastest resource, and decrease makespan by a factor of five when compared to a round robin strategy, when deployed on a heterogeneous testbed with resources ranging from a Raspberry Pi to a GPU node in an academic cloud.

Computing continuum↗

Investigation of several aspects of LANDSAT-4 data quality

Preliminary analysis of band-to-band registration in a TM scene of San Francisco, California by flickering different band pairs on the display showed no major problems. The power spectra of individual lines in each band on the A-tape of a Washington, D.C. scene, which represented data from individual detectors, was calculated. The power spectra for each detector were averaged and the peak-to-peak amplitudes were calculated as a function of frequency. Estimated system modulation transfer functions were calculated for bands 3 and 4 for a 128 x 128 pixel area of the San Francisco Bay containing the San Matteo Bridge. The shape and width of the modulation transfer functions appear reasonable, but further study is required to establish confidence in the results which yield an effective-instantaneous field of view of 33.6 meters and 40.8 meters in bands 3 and 4, respectively.

Wrigley, R. C.↗

Cluster Sampling Filters for Non-Gaussian Data Assimilation

This paper presents a fully non-Gaussian filter for sequential data assimilation. The filter is named the “cluster sampling filter”, and works by directly sampling the posterior distribution following a Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) approach, while the prior distribution is approximated using a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM). Specifically, a clustering step is introduced after the forecast phase of the filter, and the prior density function is estimated by fitting a GMM to the prior ensemble. Using the data likelihood function, the posterior density is then formulated as a mixture density, and is sampled following an MCMC approach. Four versions of the proposed filter, namely C ℓ MCMC , C ℓ HMC , MC- C ℓ HMC , and MC- C ℓ HMC are presented. C ℓ MCMC uses a Gaussian proposal density to sample the posterior, and C ℓ HMC is an extension to the Hamiltonian Monte-Carlo (HMC) sampling filter. MC- C ℓ MCMC and MC- C ℓ HMC are multi-chain versions of the cluster sampling filters C ℓ MCMC and C ℓ HMC respectively. The multi-chain versions are proposed to guarantee that samples are taken from the vicinities of all probability modes of the formulated posterior. The new methodologies are tested using a simple one-dimensional example, and a quasi-geostrophic (QG) model with double-gyre wind forcing and bi-harmonic friction. Here, numerical results demonstrate the usefulness of using GMMs to relax the Gaussian prior assumption especially in the HMC filtering paradigm.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Photometry of resolved galaxies. V - NGC 6822

Three-color CCD frames of the local group irregular galaxy NGC 6822 have been reduced to GRI photometry for 3475 stars using RICHFLD point-spread function fitting techniques. The data are compared with earlier work on this galaxy, particularly with Kayser (1966) on a star-by-star basis. Color-magnitude diagrams are constructed from the data and compared with both theoretical stellar model tracks and the expected foreground star contamination. A luminosity function for the blue stars is derived; comparison of this luminosity function with those of 10 other irregular galaxies indicates that NGC 6822 has a typical young star population. The stellar birthrate and initial mass function are estimated for this galaxy. The slope at the bright end of the mass function looks similar to recent results for the Galaxy, the Magellanic Clouds, and the irregular galaxy Sextans A. NGC 6822 appears to be presently forming stars at a slower rate for its mass than Sextans A or the Magellanic Clouds.

Hoessel, J. G.↗

Frequency domain system identification methods - Matrix fraction description approach

This paper presents the use of matrix fraction descriptions for least-squares curve fitting of the frequency spectra to compute two matrix polynomials. The matrix polynomials are intermediate step to obtain a linearized representation of the experimental transfer function. Two approaches are presented: first, the matrix polynomials are identified using an estimated transfer function; second, the matrix polynomials are identified directly from the cross/auto spectra of the input and output signals. A set of Markov parameters are computed from the polynomials and subsequently realization theory is used to recover a minimum order state space model. Unevenly spaced frequency response functions may be used. Results from a simple numerical example and an experiment are discussed to highlight some of the important aspect of the algorithm.

Horta, Luca G.↗