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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Data from: No‐till establishment improves the climate benefit of bioenergy crops on marginal grasslands

Expanding biofuel production is expected to accelerate the conversion of unmanaged marginal lands to meet biomass feedstock needs. Greenhouse gas production during conversion jeopardizes ensuing climate benefits, but most research to date has focused only on conversion to annual crops and only following tillage. Here we report the global warming impact of converting USDA Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grasslands to three types of bioenergy crops using no-till (NT) versus conventional tillage (CT). In three CRP fields planted to continuous corn, switchgrass, or restored prairie we established replicated NT and CT plots. For the two years following an initial soybean year in all fields, we found that, on average, NT conversion reduced nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions by 50% and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 20% compared to CT conversion. Differences were higher in year 1 than in year 2 in the continuous corn field, and in the two perennial systems the differences disappeared after year 1. In all fields net CO2 emissions (as measured by eddy covariance) were positive for the first two years following CT establishment, but following NT establishment net CO2 emissions were close to zero or negative, indicating net C sequestration. Overall, NT improved the global warming impact of biofuel crop establishment following CRP conversion by over 20-fold compared to CT (-6.01 Mg CO2e ha-1 yr-1 for NT vs. -0.25 Mg CO2e ha-1 yr-1 for CT, on average). We also found that IPCC estimates of N2O emissions (as measured by static chambers) greatly underestimated actual emissions for converted fields regardless of tillage. Policies should encourage adoption of NT for converting marginal grasslands to perennial bioenergy crops in order to reduce carbon debt and maximize climate benefits.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Conformal geometry from entanglement

In a physical system with conformal symmetry, observables depend on cross-ratios, measures of distance invariant under global conformal transformations (conformal geometry for short). We identify a quantum information-theoretic mechanism by which the conformal geometry emerges at the gapless edge of a 2+1D quantum many-body system with a bulk energy gap. We introduce a novel pair of information-theoretic quantities (\mathfrak{c}_{\textrm{tot}}, \eta) ( 𝔠 tot , η ) that can be defined locally on the edge from the wavefunction of the many-body system, without prior knowledge of any distance measure. We posit that, for a topological groundstate, the quantity \mathfrak{c}_{\textrm{tot}} 𝔠 tot is stationary under arbitrary variations of the quantum state, and study the logical consequences. We show that stationarity, modulo an entanglement-based assumption about the bulk, implies (i) \mathfrak{c}_{\textrm{tot}} 𝔠 tot is a non-negative constant that can be interpreted as the total central charge of the edge theory. (ii) \eta η is a cross-ratio, obeying the full set of mathematical consistency rules, which further indicates the existence of a distance measure of the edge with global conformal invariance. Thus, the conformal geometry emerges from a simple assumption on groundstate entanglement. We show that stationarity of \mathfrak{c}_{\textrm{tot}} 𝔠 tot is equivalent to a vector fixed-point equation involving \eta η , making our assumption locally checkable. We also derive similar results for 1+1D systems under a suitable set of assumptions.

Kim, Isaac H.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anthromes and forest carbon responses to global change

Human effects on ecosystems date back thousands of years, and anthropogenic biomes—anthromes—broadly incorporate the effects of human population density and land use on ecosystems. Forests are integral to the global carbon cycle, containing large biomass carbon stocks, yet their responses to land use and climate change are uncertain but critical to informing climate change mitigation strategies, ecosystem management, and Earth system modeling. Using an anthromes perspective and the site locations from the Global Forest Carbon (ForC) Database, we compare intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest lands in tropical and extratropical regions. We summarize recent past (1900-present) patterns of land use intensification, and we use a feedback analysis of Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to estimate the sensitivity of forest carbon stocks to CO 2 and temperature change for different anthromes among regions. Modeled global forest carbon stock responses are positive for CO 2 increase but neutral to negative for temperature increase. Across anthromes (intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest areas), modeled forest carbon stock responses of temperate and boreal forests are less variable than those of tropical forests. Tropical wildland forest areas appear especially sensitive to CO 2 and temperature change, with the negative temperature response highlighting the potential vulnerability of the globally significant carbon stock in tropical forests. The net effect of anthropogenic activities—including land-use intensification and environmental change and their interactions with natural forest dynamics—will shape future forest carbon stock changes. These interactive effects will likely be strongest in tropical wildlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Field surveying data of low-cost networked flood sensors in southeast Texas

Floods are common natural disasters worldwide and pose substantial risks to life, property, food production, and natural resources. Effective measures for flood mitigation and warning are essential. Southeast Texas is still at significant risk of flooding, and Lamar University is assisting the region with asset management of a flood sensor network for flooding events. This network provides real-time water stage information. Lamar University developed a survey program to measure elevation and coordinates at each sensor site location to make this data more useful for flood monitoring and mapping. This paper overviews the measurement of the elevation and coordinates of 74 networked flood sensors and various flood stage thresholds at critical points that flood decision-makers can use for reference at each site. In the first phase of this program, these sensors were deployed throughout a 7-county region spanning nearly 6,000 square miles in Southeast Texas. The latitude and longitude of the sensors and their elevations were determined using survey-grade Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) technology. Various Continually Operating Reference Stations (CORS) were utilized for post-processing to achieve sub-inch resolution. The flood stage thresholds, water level sensors elevation, and the elevations and positions of other critical surrounding points are viewable to the public through two online repositories and a web-based sensor management dashboard. The data is used to aid with decisions related to road closures or modeling efforts by mitigation decision-makers, emergency managers, and the public, including the Texas Department of Transportation, Houston Transtar, the National Weather Service, and the Sabine River Authority of Texas (SRA).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

No–till establishment improves the climate benefit of bioenergy crops on marginal grasslands

Expanding biofuel production is expected to accelerate the conversion of unmanaged marginal lands to meet biomass feedstock needs. Greenhouse gas production during conversion jeopardizes the ensuing climate benefits, but most research to date has focused only on conversion to annual crops and only following tillage. Here we report the global warming impact of converting USDA Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grasslands to three types of bioenergy crops using no–till (NT) vs. conventional tillage (CT). We established replicated NT and CT plots in three CRP fields planted to continuous corn, switchgrass, or restored prairie. For the 2 yr following an initial soybean year in all fields, we found that, on average, NT conversion reduced nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions by 50% and CO 2 emissions by 20% compared with CT conversion. Differences were higher in Year 1 than in Year 2 in the continuous corn field, and in the two perennial systems the differences disappeared after Year 1. In all fields net CO 2 emissions (as measured by eddy covariance) were positive for the first 2 yr following CT establishment, but following NT establishment net CO 2 emissions were close to zero or negative, indicating net C sequestration. Overall, NT improved the global warming impact of biofuel crop establishment following CRP conversion by over 20–fold compared with CT (–6.01 Mg CO 2 e ha –1 yr –1 for NT vs. –0.25 Mg CO 2 e ha –1 yr –1 for CT, on average). We also found that Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates of N 2 O emissions (as measured by static chambers) greatly underestimated actual emissions for converted fields regardless of tillage. Policies should encourage adoption of NT for converting marginal grasslands to perennial bioenergy crops to reduce C debt and maximize climate benefits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Solar Photovoltaics: Supply Chain Deep Dive Assessment

This is one of a series of reports and deep dive assessments produced in response to Executive Order 14017 “America’s Supply Chains,” which directs the Secretary of Energy to submit a report on supply chains for the energy sector industrial base. The Executive Order is helping the federal government to build more secure and diverse U.S. supply chains, including energy supply chains. Over the past decade, solar power has gone from an emerging, niche technology to a mature energy industry. By 2035, solar power could supply 40% or more of U.S. electricity demand, dramatically accelerating the decarbonization of buildings, transportation, and industry; and, if current technology trends continue, it could do so without increasing the price of electricity. The rapid expansion of solar energy has the potential to yield broad benefits in the form of economic activity and workforce development. The solar industry already employs roughly 230,000 people in the United States, at an average wage that is higher than the national average for most comparable positions. By decarbonizing the electricity sector by 2035, the U.S. solar industry could employ 500,000–1,500,000 people by 2030. The components that are assembled to install a photovoltaic power system are produced by a global supply chain. Photovoltaic (PV) modules (also called panels) are made of cells that use a variety of technologies. There are two leading types of solar modules used in the United States, with crystalline silicon (c-Si) modules representing 84% of the market and cadmium telluride (CdTe) modules representing 16% of the market. Modules of either type require mounting structures to provide mechanical support (racking), which may be configured to follow the sun (tracking). The output of any PV module is direct current (dc), which is almost always converted to alternating current (ac) by an inverter.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Building a machine learning surrogate model for wildfire activities within a global Earth system model

Abstract. Wildfire is an important ecosystem process, influencing land biogeophysical and biogeochemical dynamics and atmospheric composition. Fire-driven loss of vegetation cover, for example, directly modifies the surface energy budget as a consequence of changing albedo, surface roughness, and partitioning of sensible and latent heat fluxes. Carbon dioxide and methane emitted by fires contribute to a positive atmospheric forcing, whereas emissions of carbonaceous aerosols may contribute to surface cooling. Process-based modeling of wildfires in Earth system land models is challenging due to limited understanding of human, climate, and ecosystem controls on fire counts, fire size, and burned area. Integration of mechanistic wildfire models within Earth system models requires careful parameter calibration, which is computationally expensive and subject to equifinality. To explore alternative approaches, we present a deep neural network (DNN) scheme that surrogates the process-based wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) interface. The DNN wildfire model accurately simulates observed burned area with over 90 % higher accuracy with a large reduction in parameterization time compared with the current process-based wildfire model. The surrogate wildfire model successfully captured the observed monthly regional burned area during validation period 2011 to 2015 (coefficient of determination, R2=0.93). Since the DNN wildfire model has the same input and output requirements as the E3SM process-based wildfire model, our results demonstrate the applicability of machine learning for high accuracy and efficient large-scale land model development and predictions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Online and Offline Data Quality Monitoring for the Mu2e Calorimeter

This thesis presents the design, implementation, and validation of a calorimeter Data Quality Monitoring (DQM) toolchain for the Mu2e experiment at Fermilab. Mu2e searches for charged lepton flavor violation via coherent muon-to-electron conversion in the field of an aluminum nucleus, $\mu^- Al \rightarrow e^-Al$, a process whose observation would constitute clear evidence of physics beyond the Standard Model. Achieving target sensitivity requires stringent control of detector performance and data integrity during acquisition, as subtle issues in readout configuration, data formatting, or electronics behavior can compromise reconstruction and bias downstream analyzes. To address these challenges, this work develops a multi-layer DQM approach spanning both raw data validation and reconstructed digi-level diagnostics. At the low level, a fragment analysis component performs word- and bit-field decoding of calorimeter readout blocks, enabling sanity checks of the expected structure and producing detailed error and integrity statistics useful for commissioning and troubleshooting. At the digi level, the CaloDigiDQM analyzer is implemented within the art framework and transforms each CaloDigiCollection into a structured hierarchy of ROOT histograms designed for fast drill-down diagnostics. The module generates coherent monitoring views at global, disk, board, and channel granularity, including occupancy, waveform-derived features (baseline, RMS, peak amplitude and position), and left-right sensor consistency metrics. Detector-aware channel-to-electronics mapping is performed through the conditions system (CaloDAQMap), ensuring that diagnostics remain aligned with hardware identifiers used in operations. For end-to-end testing without reliance on live DAQ data, a synthetic CaloDigi producer is developed to generate realistic waveforms with controlled noise and pulse shapes. The resulting system supports both offline ROOT-file production and online operation, including optional histogram streaming through otsdaq via ots::HistoSender. This toolchain provides a practical and scalable foundation for calorimeter commissioning and stable data collection, enabling early detection of anomalies and reducing operational risk for Mu2e.

Vakulenko, Mark [Drew U.] (ORCID:0009000276197818)↗
DOE OSTI2024

International Applications for Floating Solar PV (FPV) [Slides]

Floating solar is a comparatively new concept. Floating solar is about to form a third pillar in the market for solar energy next to ground mounted and rooftop solar. The Asia-Pacific region already dominates the fast-emerging market in floating solar PV (FPV), and it looks set to build on that position as more nations get on board and costs fall. Asia-Pacific is set to increase its market share from 74% in 2020 to 87% in 2026 in terms of global installed FPV capacity. However, since floating solar systems are still a new application, there is a lack of information on its performance, cost, technical complexity, and operations and maintenance (O&M). This seminar series seeks to partially remedy that through presenting case studies that highlight the benefits, challenges, and applications of FPV in South and Southeast Asia.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding the diversity of the West African monsoon system change projected by CORDEX-CORE regional climate models

Understanding real uncertainties in projections is needed to support actions of decision and policy makers. In this study, two state-of-the-art regional climate models with ~ 25 km horizontal resolution forced with three different global climate models are employed to investigate the response of the West African Monsoon (WAM) system under the low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. We make a step towards assessing the plausibility of rainfall change (ΔPr) patterns based on the models’ ability to realistically represent the WAM system under the historical period, and by analyzing changes in mechanisms associated with ΔPr patterns. Under global warming, experiments exhibit diverse ΔPr patterns underpinned by different combinations of mechanisms operating simultaneously. A dipole-like surface pressure change between the Sahara Desert and the Guinea Coast appears to be a differentiating factor between experiments featuring homogeneous or increased rainfall over all or a part of the Sahel from those simulating heterogeneous or reduced rainfall over the same domain. This dipole acts by modulating the amount and the extent of deepening of the monsoon flux inland, and hence the latitudinal positioning of the monsoon convective system. This process contributes to moistening the whole or central and eastern Sahel in some experiments while drying the Guinea Coast. The West African Westerly Jet (WAWJ) is responsible for strengthening and moistening the western Sahel under RCP2.6. However, the WAMJ becomes much stronger under RCP8.5 and may have contributed to the drying of the western Sahel by shifting moisture eastwards in addition to the mid-tropospheric moisture divergence through enhanced African Easterly Jet. Furthermore, for experiments expecting wetting (drying) of the Sahel, the strengthening (weakening) of the tropical easterly jet may have contributed to the projected intensification (reduction) of WAM rainfall by favoring uplift (downlift) above 600 hPa. It also emerges that the ΔPr patterns from REMO2015 experiments are likely more plausible than those from RegCM4-v7. The impacts of strong warming on the regional hydrological cycle are further investigated and we found that changes gradually intensify with the level of radiative forcing, highlighting the importance of mitigating warming as recommended by the Paris agreement.

CORDEX-CORE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring the Effects of Intersubunit Interface Mutations on Virus-Like Particle Structure and Stability

Virus-like particles (VLPs) from bacteriophage MS2 provide a platform to study protein self-assembly and create engineered systems for drug delivery. Here, we aim to understand the impact of intersubunit interface mutations on the local and global structure and function of MS2-based VLPs. In previous work, our lab identified locally supercharged double mutants [T71K/G73R] that concentrate positive charge at capsid pores, enhancing uptake into mammalian cells. To study the effects of particle size on cellular internalization, we combined these double mutants with a single point mutation [S37P] that was previously reported to switch particle geometry from T = 3 to T = 1 icosahedral symmetry. These new variants retained their enhanced cellular uptake activity and could deliver small-molecule drugs with efficacy levels similar to our first-generation capsids. Surprisingly, these engineered triple mutants exhibit increased thermostability and unexpected geometry, producing T = 3 particles instead of the anticipated T = 1 assemblies. Transmission electron microscopy revealed various capsid assembly states, including wild-type (T = 3), T = 1, and rod-like particles, that could be accessed using different combinations of these point mutations. Molecular dynamics experiments recapitulated the structural rationale in silico for the single point mutation [S37P] forming a T = 1 virus-like particle and showed that this assembly state was not favored when combined with mutations that favor rod-like architectures. Through this work, we investigated how interdimer interface dynamics influence VLP size and morphology and how these properties affect particle function in applications such as drug delivery.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Examining Cloud Feedback Components in the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM)

Cloud feedback remains the main source of uncertainty in climate sensitivity estimated by global climate models (GCMs), largely because subgrid cloud responses are parameterized in GCMs due to their coarse resolution. Here, this study examines cloud feedback in the global 3.25-km Simple Cloud-Resolving Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model (SCREAM 3 km) through a pair of 1-yr atmosphere-only simulations with control and +4-K sea surface temperature perturbations. SCREAM 3 km produces a positive cloud feedback that falls within but at the upper end of the range of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) models and expert judgment. The positive cloud feedback arises from positive contributions from both high- and low-level clouds, with increases in high-cloud altitude and decreases in low-cloud amount and optical depth playing key roles. The stronger-than-CMIP-average feedback is mainly attributable to the high-cloud altitude feedback, owing to cloud tops rising nearly isothermally in SCREAM 3 km. The positive low-cloud amount feedback is weaker in SCREAM than in GCMs because estimated inversion strength (EIS) increases more dramatically with warming. A coarser 12-km resolution version of SCREAM exhibits a weaker positive cloud feedback than SCREAM 3 km, mainly because its low-cloud-radiative flux is more sensitive to EIS, leading to a stronger negative low-cloud amount feedback. With this process-level assessment of cloud feedback, this study reveals where SCREAM aligns with and diverges from conventional GCMs and expert assessment, providing insights to inform further model improvement and future expert assessment.

Cloud radiative effects↗
DOE OSTI2025

NREL Is Strengthening the Future of Hydropower, A Cornerstone of America's Energy System

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is a leader in advancing hydropower technologies, positioning hydropower as a pillar of an affordable, reliable, and secure energy future. Through its hydropower program, NREL is conducting innovative research that reduces energy costs, drives efficiency, and supports systems integration - unlocking economic opportunities, rebuilding supply chains, and fueling America's global competitiveness.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Object-Based Evaluation of Tropical Precipitation Systems in DYAMOND Simulations over the Maritime Continent

The present study uses an object-based evaluation metric to examine the precipitation bias over the Maritime Continent in the global cloud-resolving models. We specifically focus on the difference between the models that directly resolve convection and those using convection parameterization. The 40-day hindcast experiments of the DYnamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domain (DYAMOND) intercomparison project are evaluated against the high-resolution satellite rainfall products. The hindcast of the Central Weather Bureau Global Forecast System (CWBGFS) under the DYAMOND protocol is also included. The results indicate that most models simulate insufficient numbers of large precipitation system [object-based precipitation system (OPS), > 370 km in scale], indicating weaker convection organization. The observation indicates that the maximum precipitation within the OPS intensifies with increasing object size. All of the models capture this positive relationship, but most of them overestimate the sensitivity. Most of the models overestimate both the frequency and intensity of small OPS (< 160 km), except for the models with convection parameterization [i.e., CWBGFS, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (IFS)-9 km]. Although most of the models can reproduce the observed peak time of diurnal precipitation over the land area in the Maritime Continent, the simulated fractional contribution of different sizes of OPS to the total precipitation varies from model to model, and their peak times do not follow the observed ones with delayed peak times as the size of OPS increases from small, mid-size, to large categories. Most of the models reasonably capture the mean diurnal cycle peak time, but only the models with convection parameterization and Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) can represent the diurnal evolution of fractional contribution from different OPSs. The implications of the current results to the upscale processes of the tropical convection systems in the global models are also discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Increasing temperature weakens the positive effect of genetic diversity on population growth

Abstract Genetic diversity and temperature increases associated with global climate change are known to independently influence population growth and extinction risk. Whether increasing temperature may influence the effect of genetic diversity on population growth, however, is not known. We address this issue in the model protist system Tetrahymena thermophila . We test the hypothesis that at temperatures closer to the species’ thermal optimum (i.e., the temperature at which population growth is maximal, or T opt ), genetic diversity should have a weaker effect on population growth compared to temperatures away from the thermal optimum. To do so, we grew populations of T . thermophila with varying levels of genetic diversity at increasingly warmer temperatures and quantified their intrinsic population growth rate, r . We found that genetic diversity increases population growth at cooler temperatures, but that as temperature increases, this effect weakens. We also show that a combination of changes in the amount of expressed genetic diversity (G) in r , plastic changes in population growth across temperatures (E), and strong G × E interactions underlie this temperature effect. Our results uncover important but largely overlooked temperature effects that have implications for the management of small populations with depauperate genetic stocks in an increasingly warming world.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Investigating phase transitions from local crystallographic analysis based on statistical learning of atomic environments in 2D MoS 2 -ReS 2

Traditionally, phase transitions are explored using a combination of macroscopic functional characterization and scattering techniques, providing insight into the average properties and symmetries of the lattice but local atomic level mechanisms during phase transitions generally remain unknown. Here, we explore the mechanisms of a phase transition between the trigonal prismatic and distorted octahedral phases of layered chalcogenides in the 2D MoS 2 - ReS 2 system from the observations of local degrees of freedom, namely atomic positions by Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy (STEM). We employ local crystallographic analysis based on statistical learning of atomic environments to build a picture of the transition from the atomic level up and determine local and global variables controlling the local symmetry breaking. In particular, we argue that the dependence of the average symmetry breaking distortion amplitude on global and local concentration can be used to separate local chemical as well as global electronic effects on transition. This approach allows exploring atomic mechanisms beyond the traditional macroscopic descriptions, utilizing the imaging of compositional fluctuations in solids to explore phase transitions over a range of realized and observed local stoichiometries and atomic configurations.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Amplified risk of spatially compounding droughts during co-occurrences of modes of natural ocean variability

Abstract Spatially compounding droughts over multiple regions pose amplifying pressures on the global food system, the reinsurance industry, and the global economy. Using observations and climate model simulations, we analyze the influence of various natural Ocean variability modes on the likelihood, extent, and severity of compound droughts across ten regions that have similar precipitation seasonality and cover important breadbaskets and vulnerable populations. Although a majority of compound droughts are associated with El Niños, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, and cold phases of the Atlantic Niño and Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) can substantially modulate their characteristics. Cold TNA conditions have the largest amplifying effect on El Niño-related compound droughts. While the probability of compound droughts is ~3 times higher during El Niño conditions relative to neutral conditions, it is ~7 times higher when cold TNA and El Niño conditions co-occur. The probability of widespread and severe compound droughts is also amplified by a factor of ~3 and ~2.5 during these co-occurring modes relative to El Niño conditions alone. Our analysis demonstrates that co-occurrences of these modes result in widespread precipitation deficits across the tropics by inducing anomalous subsidence, and reducing lower-level moisture convergence over the study regions. Our results emphasize the need for considering interactions within the larger climate system in characterizing compound drought risks rather than focusing on teleconnections from individual modes. Understanding the physical drivers and characteristics of compound droughts has important implications for predicting their occurrence and characterizing their impacts on interconnected societal systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigating permafrost carbon dynamics in Alaska with artificial intelligence

Abstract Positive feedbacks between permafrost degradation and the release of soil carbon into the atmosphere impact land–atmosphere interactions, disrupt the global carbon cycle, and accelerate climate change. The widespread distribution of thawing permafrost is causing a cascade of geophysical and biochemical disturbances with global impacts. Currently, few earth system models account for permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) mechanisms. This research study integrates artificial intelligence (AI) tools and information derived from field-scale surveys across the tundra and boreal landscapes in Alaska. We identify and interpret the permafrost carbon cycling links and feedback sensitivities with GeoCryoAI, a hybridized multimodal deep learning (DL) architecture of stacked convolutionally layered, memory-encoded recurrent neural networks (NN). This framework integratesin-situmeasurements and flux tower observations for teacher forcing and model training. Preliminary experiments to quantify, validate, and forecast permafrost degradation and carbon efflux across Alaska demonstrate the fidelity of this data-driven architecture. More specifically, GeoCryoAI logs the ecological memory and effectively learns covariate dynamics while demonstrating an aptitude to simulate and forecast PCF dynamics—active layer thickness (ALT), carbon dioxide flux (CO 2 ), and methane flux (CH 4 )—with high precision and minimal loss (i.e. ALT RMSE : 1.327 cm [1969–2022]; CO 2 RMSE : 0.697µmolCO 2 m −2 s −1 [2003–2021]; CH 4 RMSE : 0.715 nmolCH 4 m −2 s −1 [2011–2022]). ALT variability is a sensitive harbinger of change, a unique signal characterizing the PCF, and our model is the first characterization of these dynamics across space and time.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗