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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Divergent carbon use efficiency-growth rate tradeoff in popular biological growth models

Carbon use efficiency (CUE) is an important trait emerging from processes regulating biological growth. CUE can be computed either based on the growth of structural biomass or total biomass divided by substrate uptake rate. Nonequilibrium thermodynamics and observations suggest that, for an exponentially growing population of cells, structural biomass CUE should first increase, then peak, and finally decrease with specific growth rate; meanwhile, total biomass CUE increases asymptotically with specific growth rate. We compared predictions from six popular models that are often used for plant and microbial growth in existing ecosystem models. We found that, for an exponentially growing population of biological cells, (1) the source-driven Pirt and Compromise models predict that structural biomass CUE increase asymptotically with growth rate; (2) the apparent sink-driven modified Droop model predicts that structural biomass CUE decreases with growth rate; and (3) the sink-driven variable internal storage model and two dynamic energy budget models predict that structural biomass CUE first increases, then peaks, and finally decreases with growth rate. Moreover, the modified Droop model predicts that total biomass CUE is constant with growth rate, while all other five models predict that total biomass CUE increases with growth rate asymptotically. For non-exponential biological growth, we show that there is no static relationship between total biomass CUE or structural biomass CUE with respect to either growth rate or temperature. Therefore, we contend that biological growth models should explicitly represent interactions between substrate acquisition, substate transformation, and maintenance respiration to better capture observed CUE dynamics, and the sink-driven model should be preferred for general ecosystem biogeochemistry modeling.

Tang, Jinyun [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborator↗
NASA NTRS2026

Fuel Heating System Design and Thermal Modeling for Aviation Combustion Research

Aviation fuels offer substantial heat-sink capability that can be applied to aircraft thermal-management strategies and advanced propulsion-system concepts. Accurate control of fuel temperature is critical for understanding combustion behavior and supporting high temperature fuel experimental studies. This work describes the modeling and experimental validation of a portable, high temperature fuel-conditioning system designed for multiple NASA Glenn Research Center’s combustion facilities. The system utilizes a circulating-oil heating unit and modular tube-in-tube heat exchangers capable of conditioning Jet-A to temperatures approaching 600 K. A Thermal Desktop model was created to analyze heat exchanger configurations and predict performance across a range of operating conditions. Model predictions were compared with measurements collected in the CE-13C test facility, showing good agreement across the tested flow range except at low fuel flow rate around 2 kg/hr. Results provide guidance for sizing future fuel heating system for combustion research applications.

Jet fuel heating system↗
DOE OSTI2021

AI-Batt (Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models) [SWR 21-36]

Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models (AI-Batt) AI-Batt is a MATLAB code base for developing lifetime models for batteries from accelerated aging data. The code base provides many functions for processing, visualizing, and modeling battery aging data, making the data processing, exploration, and modeling workflow substantially faster. These tools are tailored for working with battery aging data sets, which usually consist of many separate time-series for each cell, with many test conditions and possible replicates at each condition, which makes it difficult to simply process or visualize the data set. Complex modeling tasks, such as cross-validation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification have been implemented to enable thorough statistical investigation of model predictions. Additionally, several machine-learning algorithms are implemented to autonomously identify suitable models via symbolic regression. Data processing functions automatically cast data from the struct data type, which is commonly used to store experimental data, but is not an acceptable input for most algorithms, to the table data type, which can be easily used as input to any optimization algorithm. Also, the data can be separated into time-invariant and time-variant data tables, which is helpful for exploring the data set as well as developing separate models for time-variant and time-invariant aging mechanisms. For example, in aging tests with constant temperature, temperature is a time-invariant experimental condition. Visualization tools enable plotting of data, model fits, and model simulations possible with single-line function calls, empowering data exploration of complex data sets with both time-varying and time-invariant trends. Plots can be automatically generated for the whole data set, or separated by data group (groups of test replicates) or individual data series. Data points or data series can be automatically colored by the value of a variable with a variety of color maps, and model predictions can also be colored by the value of a fit statistic. Comparisons between data sets and the predictions/simulations of different models on the same data set can be easily plotted as well. Distributions of parameter values from bootstrap resampling can be plotted to visualize the reliability of parameter estimation, or determine any correlations between parameters. Modeling tools handle the complex task of creating and parsing symbolic equations for modeling battery lifetime. Equations are parsed to grab relevant data variables, parameter values, or specified sub-models for input into optimization, evaluation, or simulation functions. Models can be optimized locally (one set of parameters for each data series), bi-level (some parameters shared across the data set), or globally (single set of parameters for all data). Functions implementing symbolic regression algorithms help users to discover effective model equations, even in poorly sampled, high-dimensional data.

Smith, Kandler [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NR↗
NASA NTRS2026

Advances in Entry Systems Modeling: Modeling Summer Visit 2025 Technical Reports

This NASA Technical Memorandum presents the collective work carried out during the Modeling Summer Visit (MSV) 2025, a collaborative research program between NASA Ames Research Center and three leading European research institutions: the University of Bordeaux, the von Karman Institute (VKI), and Ecole Polytechnique. Held from July 7th to August 1st, 2025, the NASA ARC MSV program brought together 42 researchers from Europe to work alongside NASA staff on 22 projects in entry systems modeling. The program was organized by Bruno Dias, Sergio Fraile-Izquierdo, and Jeremie Meurisse from Analytical Mechanics Associates, Inc., in collaboration with Marc Massot (Ecole Polytechnique), Jean Lachaud (University of Bordeaux), and Thierry Magin (VKI). The MSV program traces its origins to an initiative started by Nagi N. Mansour in 2018, with this 2025 edition representing a consolidation and expansion of that original vision. The projects were organized into six thematic groups: Porous Media, Numerical Methods, Plasma/Rarefied Methods, Experimental Reconstruction, Flow and Material Coupling Methods, and Transition and High-Speed Flows. Throughout the four-week program, participants presented their work in three public presentations (July 7th, July 21st, and August 1st), allowing for continuous feedback and discussion of their evolving research.

Plasmas↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Probabilistic Approach to Load Modeling for Central HVAC Systems in Large Commercial Buildings for Retrofit Decisions Under Uncertainty

Retrofitting central HVAC systems in large commercial buildings with advanced technologies like heat recovery chillers (HRCs) offers a significant opportunity to enhance energy efficiency. However, analyzing these retrofits is challenging with traditional whole-building simulation tools, which require intensive calibration and struggle to model innovative system configurations and controls. To overcome these limitations, this study proposes a load profilebased retrofit analysis framework that provides better decisions under uncertainty. The main focus of this paper is the development of a probabilistic load profile model that can be used in the framework by using exploratory data analysis (EDA) of measured building data to properly quantify its inherent variability. A non-parametric Gaussian Process (GP) model was employed to capture the time- and weather-dependent characteristics of the heating load while explicitly modeling its uncertainty. The model's effectiveness is demonstrated through strong predictive performance on unseen data and physically interpretable insights into load behavior. This data-driven, probabilistic load profile serves as a robust and flexible input for subsequent system simulations, enabling a more confident and statistically sound analysis of retrofit potential.

Ham, S W↗
DOE OSTI2026

Surrogate modeling of Monte Carlo radiation transport with convolutional neural networks for shielding optimization

Here, we present a machine learning (ML)-based surrogate model using convolutional neural networks (CNN) designed to emulate the attenuation of neutron fields as they pass through various shielding materials. This model can compute the outgoing neutron flux almost instantaneously and achieves reasonable accuracy compared to traditional Monte Carlo (MC)-based codes, which are computationally intensive. This emulator alleviates the complexity of neutron radiation transport through shielding materials by reducing the dimensionality and enables shielding optimization for a known radiation environment. This optimization process, which would have taken an unrealistic timeline due to several complex radiation transport simulations, can now be achieved in minutes, thus increasing computational capabilities in radiation shielding assessment. We demonstrate the applications of this emulator in computing effective dose rates and optimizing shielding solutions for a heavy-ion accelerator facility, such as the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams, where secondary neutrons produced via beam interactions dominate the radiation environment.

accelerator shielding↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Technology Assessment and Modelling of Three Terminal Tandem Solar Cells for In-Space Utilization

NASA seeks a sustained human presence on the lunar surface. High-efficiency and resilient energy systems are critical to supporting habitats, scientific outposts, and lunar surface operations. Photovoltaics have long been the backbone of space power systems, transitioning from silicon solar cells to multi-junction III-V solar cells, which now dominate state-of-the-art (SOA) technology. Multi-junction cells achieve high efficiency by layering semiconductors, each absorbing a specific portion of the solar spectrum. However, efficiency gains are increasingly constrained by device physics and manufacturing complexity. Additionally, higher-order junctions pose challenges for accurate modelling and performance characterization due to difficulties in replicating the AM0 spectrum.

solar cells↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sparse non-Markovian Noise Modeling of Transmon-Based Multi-Qubit Operations

The influence of noise on quantum dynamics is one of the main factors preventing current quantum processors from performing accurate quantum computations. Sufficient noise characterization and modeling can provide key insights into the effect of noise on quantum algorithms and inform the design of targeted error protection protocols. However, constructing effective noise models that are sparse in model parameters, yet predictive can be challenging. In this work, we present an approach for effective noise modeling of multi-qubit operations on transmon-based devices. Through a comprehensive characterization of seven devices offered by the IBM Quantum Platform, we show that the model can capture and predict a wide range of single- and two-qubit behaviors, including non-Markovian effects resulting from spatiotemporally correlated noise sources. The model’s predictive power is further highlighted through multi-qubit dynamical decoupling demonstrations and an implementation of the variational quantum eigensolver. As a training proxy for the hardware, we show that the model can predict expectation values within a relative error of 0.5%; this is a sevenfold improvement over default hardware noise models. Through these demonstrations, we highlight key error sources in superconducting qubits and illustrate the utility of reduced noise models for predicting hardware dynamics.

open quantum systems & decoherence↗
DOE OSTI2024

Compressed baryon acoustic oscillation analysis is robust to modified-gravity models

Abstract We study the robustness of the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) analysis to the underlying cosmological model. We focus on testing the standard BAO analysis that relies on the use of a template. These templates are constructed assuming a fixed fiducial cosmological model and used to extract the location of the acoustic peaks. Such “compressed analysis” had been shown to be unbiased when applied to the ΛCDM model and some of its extensions. However, it has not been known whether this type of analysis introduces biases in a wider range of cosmological models where the template may not fully capture relevant features in the BAO signal. In this study, we apply the compressed analysis to noiseless mock power spectra that are based on Horndeski models, a broad class of modified-gravity theories specified with eight additional free parameters. We study the precision and accuracy of the BAO peak-location extraction assuming DESI, DESI II, and MegaMapper survey specifications. We find that the bias in the extracted peak locations is negligible; for example, it is less than 10% of the statistical error for even the proposed future MegaMapper survey. Our findings indicate that the compressed BAO analysis is remarkably robust to the underlying cosmological model.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Geospatial modeling of near subsurface temperatures of the contiguous United States for assessment of materials degradation

Abstract Understanding subsurface temperature variations is crucial for assessing material degradation in underground structures. This study maps subsurface temperatures across the contiguous United States for depths from 50 to 3500 m, comparing linear interpolation, gradient boosting (LightGBM), neural networks, and a novel hybrid approach combining linear interpolation with LightGBM. Results reveal heterogeneous temperature patterns both horizontally and vertically. The hybrid model performed best achieving a root mean square error of 2.61 °C at shallow depths (50–350 m). Model performance generally decreased with depth, highlighting challenges in deep temperature prediction. State-level analyses emphasized the importance of considering local geological factors. This study provides valuable insights for designing efficient underground facilities and infrastructure, underscoring the need for depth-specific and region-specific modeling approaches in subsurface temperature assessment.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Kinetic Model of the Long-Term Corrosion of Glass-Ceramic Materials

Multiphase waste forms show promise for increased waste loading and for the ability to dispose of contaminated solid and particulate waste through direct densification. However, achieving predictive capability for long-term durability of multiphase waste forms, and thus assessing their possible deployment, requires expanding the current, limited knowledge base. Here, we describe the development of a corrosion model of a two-phase waste form consisting of crystals of known volume fraction embedded in a glass matrix. This model accounts for the dissolution of both the crystalline and glass phases as well as the hydration of the glass phase through an ion exchange reaction. Because of the large difference in solubility between the two phases, the reactive surface of the crystalline phase is a function of the extent of dissolution of the glass phase in this model. Model parameterization was performed using corrosion data, such as from single-pass flow-through tests, for the individual phases. The parameterized corrosion model was evaluated against static dissolution test data for a glass-ceramic multiphase waste form. This evaluation demonstrated the model’s ability to reproduce the time-dependent release of key tracers of glass and crystalline phase dissolution. Hence, the development of a kinetic model provides a pathway for long-term durability predictions and thus the use of multiphase waste forms in nuclear cleanup missions.

Kerisit, Sebastien N.↗
NASA NTRS2014

A Predictive Bubble Point Pressure Model for Porous Liquid Acquisition Device Screens

This article presents a simplified model for porous screen channel liquid acquisition devices based on a maximum bubble point pressure method from Adamson and Gast (1997). To validate the model, three 304 stainless steel (325 × 2300, 450 × 2750, and 510 × 3600) mesh samples were tested in methanol, acetone, isopropyl alcohol, and water. Screen pores are estimated based on analysis from scanning electron microscopy, historical data, and current test data. Results show that the bubble point pressure is proportional to the surface tension of the fluid only when accounting for nonzero contact angles. The previous assumption that bubble point pressure scales inversely with effective pore diameter is shown to be invalid, as the second finest 450 × 2750 produced the highest bubble point of the three screens. The simplified bubble point model can be used to make predictions for any pure fluid when pore diameters are based on bubble point tests and not SEM analysis.

Liquid Acquisition Device↗
NASA NTRS2026

An Investigation Regarding the Effects of Volume Dynamics on Gas Turbine Engine Performance and Operability

This work explores the impact of adding volume dynamics to an electrified turbofan engine model. The zero-dimensional single-input single-output volume elements capture the physics of fluid compressibility of flow in the engine core gas path turbomachinery during transient operation with greater fidelity. Some background regarding the motivation for this effort is provided. A model of the volume element is developed from first principles. The baseline engine model is described and an explanation is given of the modifications made to incorporate the volume elements into the new model. Details of the simulated inputs, designed to elicit exaggerated dynamic responses and to facilitate comparison between the baseline and modified engine models, are explicated. The results of these simulations are presented and discussed, demonstrating that the transient performance and operability of the modified engine model, measured by parameters such as shaft speeds, thrust, and high-pressure compressor (HPC) stall margin, are impacted by the additional dynamics. Commentary is provided regarding potential explanations for the differences in behavior exhibited by the two models. Finally, suggestions are offered for future work that might improve the volume models developed in this effort and leverage the improved fidelity enabled by the modeling of turbomachinery volume dynamics.

Volume dynamics↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multiscale Modeling of Fracture Strength in Fibrous Thermal Protection System Materials

This work presents a multiscale modeling approach to predict the fracture strength of fibrous Thermal Protection System (TPS) materials. The model assumes that system failure is initiated at the joints between individual fibers. We investigated three distinct TPS compositions: amorphous silica, alumina and aluminosilicate fibers. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were employed to determine the fracture strength values of these fiber joints for both material systems. These fracture strength values were then integrated into simulations of 3D randomly populated fiber structures, where tensile load transfer occurs through the fiber joints. These microscale properties are upscaled through a renormalization approach [1] to predict macroscale tensile strength of 3D random fiber networks, accounting for joint-dominated failure and effective load-bearing area. The study concludes by demonstrating the resulting strength variation as a function of material composition, fiber density, and morphology. We also show validation of results by comparing them against explicit fiber finite element (FE) modeling [2] where fiber joint fracture is represented by cohesive elements.

Jaehyun Cho↗
DOE OSTI2026

Tracing U.S. fuel life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions in a multi-sector dynamics model using LC-GCAM

Model-based analysis of fuel pathways is essential for informing energy and environmental policy. Two major model types are typically used: multi-sector dynamics models, which capture the broader energy-economy, such as GCAM (Global Change Analysis Model), and life cycle assessment models, such as GREET (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation). Each has distinct strengths and limitations, and recent studies increasingly adopt hybrid approaches to harness the advantages of both. However, such integration is often time-consuming and complicated by inconsistencies in system boundaries and technology definitions. We present LC-GCAM, a new tool that enables estimation of life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy use for any fuel pathway represented in GCAM. We apply LC-GCAM to 300 scenarios designed to explore key uncertainties affecting the life-cycle performance of future fuel options in the U.S. freight sector. To evaluate LC-GCAM, we compare its results with those from GREET for nine fuel types in a 2030 reference scenario. When input assumptions are modestly aligned, LC-GCAM and GREET estimates typically agree within 10% (absolute sum-based mean absolute percentage error). LC-GCAM offers a flexible and efficient approach to generating life-cycle metrics within an integrated modeling framework, supporting robust policy analysis across a wide range of interacting energy system uncertainties.

Wolfram, Paul↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cryogenic Propellant Tank Drain Simulation with a Stratified Ullage Nodal Model

Cryogenic propellant tank pressurization systems maintain tank pressure within specified limits to comply with propellant thermodynamic and tank structural design requirements. Many pump-fed cryogenic liquid propulsion systems control tank pressure using an autogenous pressurization system. Autogenous pressurization systems vaporize and heat propellant to produce the pressurant gas delivered to the tank. While autogenous pressurization systems eliminate the need for a separate pressurant gas storage and delivery system, they couple pressurant mass requirements to propellant mass requirements. Accurate prediction of autogenous pressurant mass during propellant drain is essential in optimizing cryogenic propellant tank designs.

Richard G Hibbs↗