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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

High-Energy All-Solid-State Organic–Lithium Batteries Based on Ceramic Electrolytes

Recent studies have identified unique properties of organic battery electrode materials such as moderate redox potentials and mechanical softness which are uniquely beneficial for all-solid-state batteries based on ceramic electrolytes. Here, we further explore the promise of organic materials and demonstrate a sulfide electrolyte- based organic-lithium battery with a specific energy of 828 Wh kg –1 , rivaling the state-of- the-art of all-solid-state batteries. Two innovation steps are responsible for the accomplishment. First, the combination of lithium anode and the high-capacity cathode material pyrene-4,5,9,10-tetraone ensures a high theoretical specific energy. Second, the microstructure of the organic cathode is optimized with the introduction of cryomilling, a technique common to processing soft materials but not familiar to electrode fabrication. The cathode material utilization increases to 99.5% as a result, up from the 55–89% previously reported for ceramic electrolyte-based solid-state organic batteries. In conclusion, the improvement highlights the special requirements of solid-state organic electrodes for microstructural engineering while preserving the chemical integrity of components.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Thermal property characterization of phase change materials in building applications: A systematic review of fundamentals, recent progress, and future directions

Phase change materials (PCMs) can reduce building peak loads and enable demand-responsive thermal energy storage (TES), but their deployment depends on reliable measurement and interpretation of thermal properties across laboratory, intermediate, and application scales. Here, this review systematically examines characterization methods, testing protocols, and recent advances for neat PCMs and PCM composites, emphasizing thermal conductivity, enthalpy-related properties (phase change temperature, latent heat, specific heat), and cycling stability. For thermal conductivity, we compare steady-state and transient techniques and note limitations when phase transition and contact resistance affect measurements. For enthalpy–temperature characterization, we discuss differential scanning calorimetry together with intermediate- and bulk-scale methods, including T-history, heat flow meter testing, and three-layer calorimetry (3LC), to generate application-relevant enthalpy–temperature profiles. Cycling stability is organized into four experimental families: thermoelectric–air, fully thermoelectric, water-bath, and in situ chamber approaches, with attention to separating reversible supercooling from true degradation such as phase segregation. We highlight emerging noncontact diagnostics, including infrared thermography and embedded sensing, for spatially resolved validation and multiscale interpretation. Finally, we review the growing use of AI and machine learning for property prediction, inverse characterization from experimental signals, and real-time state estimation in building-integrated TES. Key needs include harmonized protocols, interlaboratory benchmarking, uncertainty reporting, and metadata-rich datasets to accelerate reproducible PCM qualification for grid-flexible buildings.

AI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Systems Innovation: Modernization & Efficiencies for ESH&Q Reviews

Environmental compliance reviews at INL have traditionally been managed through fragmented systems, relying on multiple spreadsheets and manual processes. This inefficiency led to time-consuming status updates and redundant tasks, such as manually sending reminder emails and transferring data from Excel to the Environmental Review Process (ERP). Initial attempts to streamline these processes using Power Automate and Excel revealed significant limitations, necessitating a more comprehensive solution. To address these immediate inefficiencies, automated workflows were developed using Power Automate. These workflows were designed to send scheduled status update reminders and capture responses through standardized forms, with submitted data flowing directly into centralized Excel trackers. This automation reduced the administrative burden, improved data accuracy, and enabled faster, more consistent reporting. Specifically, email automation achieved a 65% efficiency gain, while data integration saw a 48% improvement, resulting in 91% of project statuses being updated within two months. Despite the improvements brought by Power Automate, the fragmented nature of the review processes persisted. To further enhance efficiency and accuracy, the Integrated Review Tool (IRT) was developed. The IRT aims to centralize review initiation and connect team systems, creating an interconnected data infrastructure that preserves team autonomy while enhancing overall efficiency. This tool automates email reminders, centralizes reviews, and streamlines data integration, significantly improving the accuracy and efficiency of environmental compliance reviews. The design and development of the IRT involved advanced systems methodology, process mapping, project management, and collaboration with subject matter experts. The minimum viable product design is 100% complete, and system development is currently underway, with expected outcomes including a centralized entry point for all ESH&Q reviews, automated routing, real-time tracking and analytics, AI integration, and a user-friendly interface. This project demonstrates the potential of leveraging automation and integrated systems to enhance efficiency, accuracy, and decision-making in environmental reporting and compliance processes at INL.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Using Explainable Artificial Intelligence to Predict Perovskite Solar Cell Electrical Metastability from Operando Photoluminescence Images in Accelerated Stress Testing

Metal halide perovskite (MHP) solar cells exhibit a metastable response to bias governed by coupled ionic–electronic processes, complicating the conventional reciprocity relation between luminescence intensity and device open-circuit voltage (V oc ). This limits the use of luminescence as a diagnostic for device screening or accelerated stress testing, motivating new approaches that can interpret photoluminescence (PL) signals under nonequilibrium conditions. From the artificial intelligence perspective, we develop an explainable deep learning framework that integrates convolutional neural networks (CNN), long short-term memory (LSTM) layers, and an attention mechanism to learn spatiotemporal features from operando photoluminescence PL image sequences. The model achieves a mean absolute error of ±0.027 V in predicting open-circuit voltage transients and reduces extreme-tail errors by up to 78% compared to physics-based reciprocity calculations. Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping (Grad-CAM) provides interpretability by highlighting physically meaningful regions such as electrode edges and emergent defect features. From the engineering application perspective, this framework enables accurate, contactless prediction of device V oc and identification of degradation-relevant features during accelerated aging of perovskite solar cells. This approach demonstrates how explainable AI can enhance operando diagnostics and reliability analysis in photovoltaic devices under nonequilibrium conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Solving high-dimensional inverse problems using amortized likelihood-free inference with noisy and incomplete data

Here, we present a likelihood-free probabilistic inversion method based on normalizing flows for high-dimensional inverse problems. The proposed method is composed of two complementary networks: a summary network for data compression and an inference network for parameter estimation. The summary network encodes raw observations into a fixed-size vector of summary features, while the inference network generates samples of the approximate posterior distribution of the model parameters based on these summary features. The posterior samples are produced in a deep generative fashion by sampling from a latent Gaussian distribution and passing these samples through an invertible transformation. We construct this invertible transformation by sequentially alternating conditional invertible neural network and conditional neural spline flow layers. The summary and inference networks are trained simultaneously. We apply the proposed method to an inversion problem in groundwater hydrology to estimate the posterior distribution of the log-conductivity field conditioned on spatially sparse time-series observations of the system’s hydraulic head responses. The conductivity field is represented with 706 degrees of freedom in the considered problem. Comparison with the likelihood-based iterative ensemble smoother PEST-IES method demonstrates that the proposed method accurately estimates the parameter posterior distribution and the observations’ predictive posterior distribution at a fraction of the inference time of PEST-IES.

conditional invertible neural network↗
DOE OSTI2023

PipeSight: A High-Performance Computing Platform for Pipeline Integrity Management

The Phase I feasibility study completed as part of this project has led to a number of innovative technologies being developed and has laid the foundation for a successful Phase II effort to commercialize a platform for managing the integrity of pipelines for the damage mechanisms of the new, hybrid-energy based economy. To ground the development efforts and direction of the project, an extensive market research and customer discovery effort was undertaken early in Phase I. Through this effort, a number of pipeline owners and operators were interviewed, and the following key findings were discovered about the pipeline industry: • Small pipeline operators do not have the central engineering groups necessary to perform their own independent analysis of inspection data, but instead rely on summarized tally sheets provided to them by inspection service providers. • The time it takes to go from an inspection to a completed engineering assessment, even for small segments of pipeline, can take anywhere from 30-120 days. During this delay, critical threats can (and have been known to) cause failures. • Uncertainty is often not accounted for in the assessment of pipeline integrity. The tally sheets provided by third-party service providers are almost always deterministic in nature, identifying threats that present a concern only to the current (not the future) integrity of the pipeline. • It is uncommon to apply the latest technologies to perform advanced assessments of damaged pipelines. There is a desire to use more advanced analysis capabilities to assess threats. Many pipeline operators indicated that they would often excavate a pipeline to perform an inspection and find that the damage was not as bad as they anticipated, thus using limited resources unnecessarily. Companies are not consistent in their use of inspection data to determine corrosion rates, and those that do only calculate deterministic corrosion rates. • The industry has prominently relied on time-based inspections but has recently started to transition to risk-based inspections. However, there appears to be no uniform guidance on how to do so while properly accounting for all sources of uncertainty. • Companies are not storing inspection data in a manner that allows for the ready determination of temporal trends. • Predictive maintenance principles and practices are beginning to be used by early adopters • Some pipelines are being re-purposed to transport different process fluids than they were designed for, e.g., H 2 and CO 2 rich process streams to serve the new hybrid-energy based economy, which are presenting new integrity concerns for the existing pipeline network that crisscrosses the United States. As a result of these discoveries, we were able to target the development efforts in Phase I to best serve the needs of the industry. In Phase I, we developed a way to correlate multiple large-scale scans of the pipeline to determine a probabilistic corrosion rate that accounts for all sources of error and uncertainty in the inspection process. This probabilistic corrosion rate can be used to predict the future thickness distribution of the pipe wall. We demonstrate how this analysis may be performed in an analytical fashion and has been implemented in such a manner that it can be readily distributed using GPU computing through integration of the Kokkos programming model. We also make a very novel extension of the analytical corrosion rate model to Bayesian Networks (an explainable AI technique) that can account for non-parametric distributions of corrosion rates. With the predictions made above for the probabilistic corrosion rate and corresponding future distribution of the pipe wall thickness, we can assess the integrity of the pipeline through the use of a probabilistic engineering assessment. We developed a novel screening data analysis approach that can rapidly identify ‘hotspots’ (local thin areas) where the integrity of the pipeline is a concern. Once more, we implemented this screening approach in C++ to leverage GPU computing via the Kokkos programming model. After the critical hotspots are identified, we developed a program that can automatically generate an advanced finite element model of the damaged regions. Since the number of damaged regions that require advanced analysis can number in the thousands, we integrated an open-source container-native workflow engine for orchestrating parallel jobs on the cloud. Initially, these advanced numerical models were only designed to account for loading due to internal pressure. However, in a slight pivot from the initial Phase I proposal, we developed a complete pipe stress analysis program (called Simflex) which can simulate the complete pipeline and its response to thermal expansion, pressure, thermal bowing, weight, wind, earthquake, support displacement, support friction and external forces. This pipe stress analysis program was written generically, to handle any piping system, but contains the features needed to model long pipelines (i.e., it incorporates a model for soil mechanics and can account for the nonlinear boundary conditions necessary to simulate long underground pipelines). This pipe stress analysis program can simulate any segment of the pipeline (simple or complex) under any set of conditions and loads, to determine the supplemental loads (axial forces and bending moments) at the location of damage. This enables the most accurate state of stress to be accounted for in the pipeline, which can prove critical when evaluating the integrity of a damaged region. In the process of developing the technologies to perform the integrity assessment of the pipeline, we also extended one of the industry standard approaches for performing the assessment of local thin areas that extend more in the circumferential direction than the longitudinal direction of the pipeline. This approach was presented to the API 579-1/AS ME FFS-1 steering committee in November 2021 for consideration in the next edition of the industry standard for Fitness-For-Service (expected to be released in 2023). To help pipeline operators make decisions with the results on any integrity assessment, we developed a new approach to the life-cycle management of pipelines which uses a Bayesian Decision Network. The network is designed to help pipeline operators plan and prioritize inspection activities and ultimately make smarter, more cost-effective decisions. The Bayesian approach accounts for all sources of uncertainty and carries them through to the final optimal decisions, providing a probabilistic framework for optimizing inspection intervals. The proof-of-concept networks developed in the feasibility study are complete, verified, and are focused on a subset of the pipeline. To expand this novel approach to the scale necessary for an entire network of pipelines in Phase II, we will leverage the DOE-funded Bengi solver for industrial-scale decision making with Bayesian Networks [22]. Once implemented, we will be able to provide the pipeline industry with a much-needed tool for optimal inspection planning using truly explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). To handle all of these advanced capabilities into a cloud-based platform, the architecture of the Equity Engineering Cloud (EEC) was extended to include Argo Workflows, a framework capable of distributing and managing a massive number of jobs that consume their own resources, such that thousands of serial finite element simulations can be run in parallel. As part of this substantial undertaking, we also integrated Argo Continuous Delivery (CD) into the EEC, to aid with the rapid prototyping and iterations that will be imperative to the success of the PipeSight platform’s Agile development process in Phase II. As part of the pipe stress analysis program, we also developed a custom visualizer that leverages the DOE-funded VTK visualization library. We added custom contouring capabilities and a means for interacting visually with both the inputs and outputs of the pipe stress analysis program. We also developed routines for automating the post-processing of the finite element simulations to determine if any failure criteria are met and to visualize the deformations, stresses and strains in ParaView using the exodus II file format (a subset of netCDF).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Performance of the ATLAS RPC detector and Level-1 muon barrel trigger at √(s)=13 TeV

The ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) employs a trigger system consisting of a first-level hardware trigger (L1) and a software-based high-level trigger. The L1 muon trigger system selects muon candidates, assigns them to the correct LHC bunch crossing and classifies them into one of six transverse-momentum threshold classes. The L1 muon trigger system uses resistive-plate chambers (RPCs) to generate the muon-induced trigger signals in the central (barrel) region of the ATLAS detector. The ATLAS RPCs are arranged in six concentric layers and operate in a toroidal magnetic field with a bending power of 1.5 to 5.5 Tm. The RPC detector consists of about 3700 gas volumes with a total surface area of more than 4000 m2. This paper reports on the performance of the RPC detector and L1 muon barrel trigger using 60.8 fb-1 of proton-proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS experiment in 2018 at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. Detector and trigger performance are studied using Z boson decays into a muon pair. Measurements of the RPC detector response, efficiency, and time resolution are reported. Measurements of the L1 muon barrel trigger efficiencies and rates are presented, along with measurements of the properties of the selected sample of muon candidates. Measurements of the RPC currents, counting rates and mean avalanche charge are performed using zero-bias collisions. Finally, RPC detector response and efficiency are studied at different high voltage and front-end discriminator threshold settings in order to extrapolate detector response to the higher luminosity expected for the High Luminosity LHC.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Operation and performance of the ATLAS tile calorimeter in LHC Run 2

The ATLAS tile calorimeter (TileCal) is the hadronic sampling calorimeter covering the central region of the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). This paper gives an overview of the calorimeter’s operation and performance during the years 2015–2018 (Run 2). In this period, ATLAS collected proton–proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV and the TileCal was 99.65% efficient for data-taking. The signal reconstruction, the calibration procedures, and the detector operational status are presented. The performance of two ATLAS trigger systems making use of TileCal information, the minimum-bias trigger scintillators and the tile muon trigger, is discussed. Studies of radiation effects allow the degradation of the output signals at the end of the LHC and HL-LHC operations to be estimated. Finally, the TileCal response to isolated muons, hadrons and jets from proton–proton collisions is presented. The energy and time calibration methods performed excellently, resulting in good stability and uniformity of the calorimeter response during Run 2. The setting of the energy scale was performed with an uncertainty of 2%. The results demonstrate that the performance is in accordance with specifications defined in the Technical Design Report.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Interactions Between Lightning and Ship Traffic

It is important to understand connections between society and the natural environment for anticipating hazards and anthropogenic effects on the Earth system. In this study, we conduct a detailed exploration of interactions between oceanic thunderstorms and maritime traffic. Shipping traffic produces aerosols that perturb the otherwise “clean” ocean environment. Prior work proposed these aerosol effects as the cause of increased lightning over certain shipping lanes. However, introducing tall grounded objects into a high electric field environment might also facilitate lightning discharges, as we see with upward lightning over land. We consider both possibilities. Our analyses of the thunderstorms responsible for enhanced lightning activity over the shipping lane with the clearest anthropogenic signal indicate that the enhancement results from an increased frequency of lightning-producing storms. Observed variations in thunderstorm microphysics between the shipping lane and nearby oceans are small compared to natural factors such as the Indian monsoon, and are on the same scale as the local variability in the data. By contrast, matching lightning stroke data with ship transponder events in oceanic regions where public data are available reveals a strong signal from direct ship interactions. Lightning is 15× (66×) more likely to occur at a ship location compared to 2 km (25 km) away. These results highlight the central role of direct ship interactions in explaining lightning enhancements over shipping lanes. We also document the frequency of these direct lightning interactions across various categories of vessels and on individual ships present in the public data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Measurement of the energy response of the ATLAS calorimeter to charged pions from $W^{\pm }\rightarrow \tau ^{\pm }(\rightarrow \pi ^{\pm }\nu _{\tau })\nu _{\tau }$ events in Run 2 data

The energy response of the ATLAS calorimeter is measured for single charged pions with transverse momentum in the range 10 < p T < 300 GeV. The measurement is performed using 139 fb –1 of LHC proton–proton collision data at √s = 13 TeV taken in Run 2 by the ATLAS detector. Charged pions originating from τ-lepton decays are used to provide a sample of high-p T isolated particles, where the composition is known, to test an energy regime that has not previously been probed by in situ single-particle measurements. The calorimeter response to single-pions is observed to be overestimated by ~2% across a large part of the p T spectrum in the central region and underestimated by ~4% in the endcaps in the ATLAS simulation. The uncertainties in the measurements are ≲1% for 15 < p T < 185 GeV in the central region. To investigate the source of the discrepancies, the width of the distribution of the ratio of calorimeter energy to track momentum, the energies per layer and response in the hadronic calorimeter are also compared between data and simulation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Parasitic Effects in Impedance Spectrum of PEM Water Electrolysis Cells: Case Study of High-Frequency Inductive Effects

Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) is a powerful tool to characterize and distinguish electrochemical, electrical, and diffusive processes in an electrolysis cell. The EIS response with small impedance (mΩ) depends on components and materials of the cell, but often also on the electrical setup, cables, and connectors, leading to incorrect conclusions about the performance of the electrolysis cells. These parasitic effects are assessed via a short-circuit measurement and confirmed to be external from the membrane electrode assembly (MEA). In the setup, the inductive characteristic is described by a modified inductive reactance and must be included in the equivalent circuit model (ECM) which is fitting the cell EIS spectra in operation (in situ). If points of the spectra showing inductive characteristic (below x-axis in Nyquist plot) are excluded from the ECM evaluation, an artificially increased ohmic resistance at high frequencies is obtained. In addition, considerations on other components of the ECM can be misleading and significantly incorrect. The only way to avoid that inductive behavior caused by the external setup is incorrectly assigned to the ECM describing properties of the MEA is to include the inductive effects in the ECM analysis of in situ EIS measurements.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sensor response and radiation damage effects for 3D pixels in the ATLAS IBL Detector

Pixel sensors in 3D technology equip the outer ends of the staves of the Insertable B Layer (IBL), the innermost layer of the ATLAS Pixel Detector, which was installed before the start of LHC Run 2 in 2015. 3D pixel sensors are expected to exhibit more tolerance to radiation damage and are the technology of choice for the innermost layer in the ATLAS tracker upgrade for the HL-LHC programme. While the LHC has delivered an integrated luminosity of ≃ 235 fb -1 since the start of Run 2, the 3D sensors have received a non-ionising energy deposition corresponding to a fluence of ≃ 8.5 × 10 14 1 MeV neutron-equivalent cm -2 averaged over the sensor area. This paper presents results of measurements of the 3D pixel sensors' response during Run 2 and the first two years of Run 3, with predictions of its evolution until the end of Run 3 in 2025. Data are compared with radiation damage simulations, based on detailed maps of the electric field in the Si substrate, at various fluence levels and bias voltage values. These results illustrate the potential of 3D technology for pixel applications in high-radiation

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Vision, challenges and opportunities for a Plant Cell Atlas

With growing populations and pressing environmental problems, future economies will be increasingly plant-based. Now is the time to reimagine plant science as a critical component of fundamental science, agriculture, environmental stewardship, energy, technology and healthcare. This effort requires a conceptual and technological framework to identify and map all cell types, and to comprehensively annotate the localization and organization of molecules at cellular and tissue levels. This framework, called the Plant Cell Atlas (PCA), will be critical for understanding and engineering plant development, physiology and environmental responses. A workshop was convened to discuss the purpose and utility of such an initiative, resulting in a roadmap that acknowledges the current knowledge gaps and technical challenges, and underscores how the PCA initiative can help to overcome them.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spread Spectrum Time Domain Reflectometry (SSTDR) and Frequency Domain Reflectometry (FDR) for Detection of Cable Anomalies Using Machine Learning

Cables are initially qualified for nuclear power plant use for 40 years. As plants extend their operating license to 60 and 80 years, continued use of these cables must shift to a performance-based approach since it is cost prohibitive to completely replace cables that are likely still capable of performing their design function. A variety of cable tests are available and are commonly applied during outages when the cables can be taken out of service. Frequency domain reflectometry (FDR) is one of these test methods that is being more broadly accepted and used because it not only detects anomalies along the cable with a low-voltage signal that does not stress the cable insulation, but the technique also locates the anomalies. This supports follow-up local inspection and local repair or partial replacement of a damaged cable segment. Currently, FDR testing is only applied to cables that are taken out of service since the test instrument would be damaged by operational voltages. A related technology that has found some acceptance in the aircraft and rail industry is spread spectrum time domain reflectometry (SSTDR). This technology has been implemented with a custom commercial instrument by LiveWire Innovation Inc. that is designed to operate on live cables up to 1000 volts. One of the main conclusions of a previous effort was that cable reflectometry plots can be difficult for humans to analyze due to baseline noise, low or noisy anomaly response peaks, or large responses from cable ends. Detection of cable anomalies for many of these frequencies and test conditions was challenging for manual analysis. This presented an ideal opportunity for ML analysis to distinguish undamaged cable indications from anomalous cable indications. This research discusses application of machine learning (ML) to reflectometry cable test methods. The goal was to assess feasibility to distinguish undamaged cable reflectometry responses from damaged or anomalous cable reflectometry responses. The assessment considered the 3 instruments, multiple frequency bandwidths from each instrument, multiple cable anomalies and test conditions, and both supervised and unsupervised ML approaches. Although approaches and analysis methods were not identical or directly comparable, both outputs were encouraging. The unsupervised prediction weighted accuracy was assessed by instrument and by frequency. It performed better at high frequencies with the highest prediction accuracy of 0.84 for the higher frequency FDR, 0.79 for the 48-MHz LiveWire SSTDR, and 0.77 for 300-MHz PNNL SSTDR. The initial weighted accuracy average across all frequencies for using supervised ML was 0.56 to 0.68. The supervised analysis was repeated with noisier training data removed resulting in weighted accuracies of 0.69 to 0.87. These weighted accuracies are not directly comparable due to differences in the supervised and unsupervised analysis details but do indicate an encouraging trend. Even with limited and unbalanced data, strong prediction accuracies seem encouraging for further work including more data under a wider range of conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

The ATLAS trigger system for LHC Run 3 and trigger performance in 2022

The ATLAS trigger system is a crucial component of the ATLAS experiment at the LHC. It is responsible for selecting events in line with the ATLAS physics programme. This paper presents an overview of the changes to the trigger and data acquisition system during the second long shutdown of the LHC, and shows the performance of the trigger system and its components in the proton-proton collisions during the 2022 commissioning period as well as its expected performance in proton-proton and heavy-ion collisions for the remainder of the third LHC data-taking period (2022–2025).

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hybridizing Machine Learning and Physically-based Earth System Models to Improve Prediction of Multivariate Extreme Events (AI Exploration of Wildland Fire Prediction)

Focal Areas: This project responds to two focal areas identified in the DOE Call for AI4ESP White Papers: 1) Predictive modeling through the use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, and 2) insights gleaned from complex data using explainable AI and big data analytics. Science Challenge: Large wildland fires (hereafter wildfires) appearing as high-impact compound climate extreme events are closely related to hydroclimate and water cycle extremes that modulate surface fuel supply and combustibility. These compound events have multivariate climatic features (e.g., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind, lightning) and societal drivers (e.g., forest management, land use change, human caused ignitions). Meanwhile, they induce strong feedbacks to the coupled atmosphere, biosphere, and hydrosphere by perturbing regional and global radiation budget as well as ecological, biogeochemical, and water cycles across multiple spatiotemporal scales. The nonlinear interactions between these natural and anthropogenic components of the Earth system are too complex to be completely and adequately represented in today’s Earth system models (ESMs). The inherent stochastic nature of fire activity at all scales further increases the difficulty of its prediction using ESMs that are usually developed from deterministic equations and parameterizations. Besides, concurrence of long-term (decadal to interdecadal) global climate change and fire regime shifts overlapping with short-term (intraseasonal to interannual) variations of regional fire weather and burning activity confound predictability of these compound extreme events. We propose to address the above scientific challenges by using machine learning (ML)-based data-driven modeling techniques to integrate observations and physically-based ESMs’ simulations in a computationally efficient hybrid prediction system. This prediction system is supposed to characterize the wildfire’s sensitivity to climate and exogenous drivers at high resolution (~ 0.25°) on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales providing improved predictability and explainability. We will use the system to help identify: (1) What are the computational elements of a hybrid system needed to predict compound climate extreme events such as global wildfires? (2) What are the key drivers (either natural or anthropogenic) that modulate short-term variations of multivariate fire weather and burning activity over different regions? How can one take advantage of those driver-response relationships to improve the predictability of large wildfires on S2S time scales? (3) What are the underlying physical mechanisms and sources of improved predictability? Which ML techniques are optimal in revealing and adapting these mechanisms?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

NSTX-U National Research Program: White Paper in Response to Call from FESAC Sub-Committee

Both scientific and technical innovation is needed for the realization of an attractive engineering solution for a timely and cost-effective Pilot Plant, the design and construction of which is the overarching recommendation of the FESAC Long Range Plan, and the 2021 NASEM Pilot Plant reports, which underpin the Bold Decadal Vision. The two most significant plasma physics gaps to close for a Compact Pilot Plant (CPP) are core confinement improvement and heat flux mitigation, neither of which have been closed in an integrated fashion for any planned fusion power production device. High core confinement and stability are essential for producing majority self-driven plasmas in CPPs with reduced size and auxiliary heating power requirements, with an improvement in confinement being the major driver for cost reduction of a CPP. The National Spherical Tokamak Experiment - Upgrade (NSTX-U) is a unique low aspect ratio research facility that will address the fundamental challenge of developing the science and technology basis for a CPP design that integrates high core and edge confinement with the ability to mitigate very high incident heat fluxes. NSTX-U capabilities will enable the high performance, already achieved on NSTX, to extend into physics regimes much closer to those anticipated in Spherical Tokamak (ST)-based CPPs. These confinement and stability properties will be assessed by a full complement of diagnostics and analysis tools, which will also aid in the development of the underlying theory and predictive models needed for further optimization. Both conventional and transformative heat flux mitigation methods, such as liquid lithium plasma-facing components, will be developed and tested in-situ in NSTX-U at incident heat fluxes of ~100 MW/m 2 , and will inform plans and reduce risk for a subsequent major upgrade to the device to fully heated, high-Z wall and full liquid lithium divertor capability, a technology that potentially could then be implemented on any magnetic confinement device at any aspect ratio. NSTX-U research is fully complementary to programs performed on other STs, nationally and internationally. Furthermore, NSTX-U research has a direct connection to the private sector by informing design choices for future power production facilities being developed by these companies. The NSTX-U program will operate as a national User Facility, with collaborating researchers, engineers, and graduate students from 19 outside institutions, and open to participation and experiments led by researchers from both public and private entities. The research program will advance workforce development through training of young scientists, engineers, and technicians, and it will also serve for further diagnostic innovation, especially for high heat flux and high-Z wall environments, and implementation of advanced artificial intelligence (AI) for plasma and heat flux control.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Extreme drought impacts have been underestimated in grasslands and shrublands globally

Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of short-term (~1 y) drought events—the most common duration of drought—globally. Yet the impact of this intensification of drought on ecosystem functioning remains poorly resolved. This is due in part to the widely disparate approaches ecologists have employed to study drought, variation in the severity and duration of drought studied, and differences among ecosystems in vegetation, edaphic and climatic attributes that can mediate drought impacts. To overcome these problems and better identify the factors that modulate drought responses, we used a coordinated distributed experiment to quantify the impact of short-term drought on grassland and shrubland ecosystems. With a standardized approach, we imposed ~a single year of drought at 100 sites on six continents. Here we show that loss of a foundational ecosystem function—aboveground net primary production (ANPP)—was 60% greater at sites that experienced statistically extreme drought (1-in-100-y event) vs. those sites where drought was nominal (historically more common) in magnitude (35% vs. 21%, respectively). This reduction in a key carbon cycle process with a single year of extreme drought greatly exceeds previously reported losses for grasslands and shrublands. Our global experiment also revealed high variability in drought response but that relative reductions in ANPP were greater in drier ecosystems and those with fewer plant species. Overall, our results demonstrate with unprecedented rigor that the global impacts of projected increases in drought severity have been significantly underestimated and that drier and less diverse sites are likely to be most vulnerable to extreme drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗