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NASA NTRS2016

The "Puck" Energetic Charged Particle Detector: Design, Heritage, and Advancements

Energetic charged particle detectors characterize a portion of the plasma distribution function that plays critical roles in some physical processes, from carrying the currents in planetary ring currents to weathering the surfaces of planetary objects. For several low-resource missions in the past, the need was recognized for a low-resource but highly capable, mass-species-discriminating energetic particle sensor that could also obtain angular distributions without motors or mechanical articulation. This need led to the development of a compact Energetic Particle Detector (EPD), known as the "Puck" EPD (short for hockey puck), that is capable of determining the flux, angular distribution, and composition of incident ions between an energy range of approximately 10 kiloelectronvolts to several megaelectronvolts. This sensor makes simultaneous angular measurements of electron fluxes from the tens of kiloelectronvolts to about 1 megaelectronvolt. The same measurements can be extended down to approximately 1 kiloelectronvolt per nucleon,with some composition ambiguity. These sensors have a proven flight heritage record that includes missions such as MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) and New Horizons, with multiple sensors on each of Juno, Van Allen Probes, and Magnetospheric Multiscale. In this review paper we discuss the Puck EPD design, its heritage, unexpected results from these past missions and future advancements. We also discuss high-voltage anomalies that are thought to be associated with the use of curved foils, which is a new foil manufacturing processes utilized on recent Puck EPD designs. Finally, we discuss the important role Puck EPDs can potentially play in upcoming missions.

Clark, G.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modeling of the cold electron plasma density for radiation belt physics

This review focusses strictly on existing plasma density models, including ionospheric source models, empirical density models, physics-based and machine-learning density models. This review is framed in the context of radiation belt physics and space weather codes. The review is limited to the most commonly used models or to models recently developed and promising. A great variety of conditions is considered such as the magnetic local time variation, geomagnetic conditions, ionospheric source regions, radial and latitudinal dependence, and collisional vs. collisionless conditions. These models can serve to complement satellite observations of the electron plasma density when data are lacking, are for most of them commonly used in radiation belt physics simulations and can improve our understanding of the plasmasphere dynamics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2022

Discrete Aurora on the Nightside of Mars: Occurrence Location and Probability

This paper represents the first attempt to predict the occurrence location and probability of discrete electron aurora on the nightside of Mars. We run a 3-D time-dependent magnetohydrodynamic model to characterize the spatial and temporal dynamics of magnetic field and plasma distributions over the course of one planetary rotation. We perform eight simulation cases under solar minimum quiet-solar-wind conditions (four equinox/solstice seasons, each with two interplanetary magnetic field polarities) and in an actual interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) case to assess quiet and space weather situations, respectively. The occurrence of detectable discrete aurora is subject to the combination of the probabilities that (a) the ionosphere is magnetically connected with high altitudes through open field lines and (b) precipitating energy fluxes of >30 eV electrons exceed 0.1 erg/cm2/s. Our results show that during quiet solar activity, discrete aurora occurs likely on small-scale patches embedded inside strong crustal magnetic field regions (with a magnitude greater than 50 nT at 150 km), and the overall chance across the globe is ∼0.77%. The higher probability over strong crustal field regions is attributed to the stronger magnetic field convergence. Modeling shows the occurrence probability dramatically increases during the ICME event, particularly by more than an order of magnitude in weak crustal field regions. Our model results reasonably agree with NASA Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN and Mars Express observations. Our study suggests that nightside discrete electron aurora is not caused by the direct entry of magnetosheath plasma in a cusp-like process but due to the recycling of nightside magnetospheric electrons.

Xiaohua Fang↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Lunar Gateway Charging and Effects on Low-Energy Electron Measurements

The Electron Electrostatic Analyzer (EEA) is part of the HERMES instrument suite on Lunar Gateway and is designed to measure electrons in the energy range from 1 eV to 18 keV. Electrons in this range can be deflected or blocked from entering a detector by electric fields from a charged spacecraft platform, so many heliophysics missions (MMS, Cluster, etc.) use active potential control to minimize stray electric fields which would corrupt low-energy plasma measurements. Gateway, however, does not have such capabilities so the surface charging effects will influence the electron data. Further, some elements of Gateway partially block the instrument’s field of view to space. The effects of the Gateway platform on the low-energy electron population must be understood to maximize the accuracy of the EEA data. To investigate the electrostatic environment near Gateway and its effects on the EEA measurements, we use Nascap-2K to model the expected charging of Gateway under representative solar wind, magnetosheathic, and magnetospheric conditions. Next, we use the potential and electric field outputs from Nascap-2K along with in-house particle tracing codes to investigate how low-energy electrons are perturbed, blocked, or deflected by the spacecraft. We discuss how these perturbations impact the plasma moments computed from the EEA data and possible approaches for correcting the charging effects including application of advanced methods such as neural networks. In addition to electrons from the space environment being influenced by the electrostatic environment around Gateway, photoelectrons generated on Gateway surfaces will also be measured by EEA. We are investigating how knowledge of the potentials of various Gateway surfaces can be extracted from these measured photoelectrons using advanced numerical modeling and analysis. Such information would be valuable for validating charging models and planning mission operations around the platform. Finally, we discuss how the specific workflow developed for Gateway can be extended to a generalized process that is applicable to other future missions. As the space industry prepares for human exploration beyond low-Earth orbit, the need to obtain accurate space weather data from rideshare science payloads is critical. Our process for removing platform effects from the science data serves as a pathfinder for leveraging advanced simulations to maximize science returns and ensure the safety and success of future crewed missions.

Miles Bengtson↗

NASA NTRS2005

Solar Wind Fluctuations and Their Consequences on the Magnetosphere

Efforts have been made to extract the physical meaning of each term in our prediction model of the Dst index using the solar wind as the only input. The work has been published Journal of Geophysical Research (Temerin and Li, 21002). We found different terms in the model representing different current in the magnetospheric system and each current has different rise and decay times, with the symmetric ring current the slowest, then the partial ring current, then the tail current. We also have been trying to understand the physical meaning of the diffusion coefficient used in our prediction model of relativistic electron fluxes at geostationary orbit. The model reproduced the observations of MeV electron flux variations well, the diffusion coefficient had be assumed only die to local magnetic field fluctuations, leading to its 10th power dependence on the L. We have studied the theoretical derivation of the diffusion coefficient and we believe that the effect electric field fluctuations at smaller L could become more significant. We have expanded our previous radiation belt electron prediction model, which predicted MeV electron geosynchronous orbit based on solar wind measurements, to predict MeV electrons inside geosynchronous orbit. The model results are compared with measurements from Polar/CEPPAD. Prediction efficiencies of 0.56 and 0.54, respectively, at L=6 and L=4, have been achieved over the entire year of 1998. This work wa reported at 2003 Fall AGU and has been accepted for publication in Space Weather (Barker et al., 2005). We also have used simultaneous measurements of the upstream solar wind and of energetic electrons at geosynchronous orbit to analyze the response of electrons over a very wide energy range, 50 keV-6MeV, to solar wind variations. Enhancements of energetic electron fluxes over this whole energy range are modulated by the solar wind speed and the polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). The solar wind speed seems to be a dominant controlling parameter for electrons of all energy. This work has been published in Space Weather (Li et al., 2005).

Li, Xin-Lin↗

NASA NTRS2024

SiC Charged Particle Telescope GRC Independent Research and Development (IRAD) Program End of Project Final Report

In an advancement over the state-of-the art, NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) has developed a large area silicon carbide (SiC)-based charged particle telescope through an Independent Research and Development (IRAD) project. The telescope has been demonstrated to have improved noise characteristics and resolution than previous SiC detectors. This improvement will meet the challenges of compact multidirectional robust radiation detector systems to study a wide range of elementary particle mass and energies. In order to provide a complete understanding of how energetic processes internal and external to the solar system shape magnetospheres, atmospheres, and surfaces, in situ particle observations should include measurements of Solar Energetic Particles (SEP) and Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR), along with solar wind and plasma. The potential temperature stability, tolerance to high radiation environments, and low noise characteristics expected in SiC-based detectors can have advantages over the state-of-the-art silicon detectors. These advantages will allow the detectors to be deployed in small compact systems on a variety of platforms, enabling compact structures for small satellite platforms with improved data quality.

Field and particle detectors↗

NASA NTRS2008

Predicting Chandra CCD Degradation with the Chandra Radiation Model

Not long after launch of the Chandra X-Ray Observatory, it was discovered that the Advanced CCD Imaging Spectrometer (ACIS) detector was rapidly degrading due to radiation. Analysis by Chandra personnel showed that this degradation was due to 10w energy protons (100 - 200 keV) that scattered down the optical path onto the focal plane. In response to this unexpected problem, the Chandra Team developed a radiation-protection program that has been used to manage the radiation damage to the CCDs. This program consists of multiple approaches - scheduled sating of the ACIS detector from the radiation environment during passage through radiation belts, real-time monitoring of space weather conditions, on-board monitoring of radiation environment levels, and the creation of a radiation environment model for use in computing proton flux and fluence at energies that damage the ACIS detector. This radiation mitigation program has been very successful. The initial precipitous increase in the CCDs' charge transfer inefficiency (CTI) resulting from proton damage has been slowed dramatically, with the front-illuminated CCDS having an increase in CTI of only 2.3% per year, allowing the ASIS detector's expected lifetime to exceed requirements. This paper concentrates on one aspect of the Chandra radiation mitigation program, the creation of the Chandra Radiation Model (CRM). Because of Chandra's highly elliptical orbit, the spacecraft spends most of its time outside of the trapped radiation belts that present the severest risks to the ACIS detector. However, there is still a proton flux environment that must be accounted for in all parts of Chandra's orbit. At the time of Chandra's launch there was no engineering model of the radiation environment that could be used in the outer regions of the spacecraft's orbit, so the CRM was developed to provide the flux environment of 100 - 200 keV protons in the outer magnetosphere, magnetosheath, and solar wind regions of geospace. This presentation describes CRM, its role in Chandra operations, and its prediction of the ACIS CTI increase.

Minow, Joseph I.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Multiscale Studies of the Three-Dimensional Dayside X-Line

We review recent experience from the Cluster, Double Star, and THEMIS missions for lessons that apply to the upcoming Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS) being developed for launch in 2014. On global scales, simulation and statistical studies lead to mean congurations of dayside reconnection, implying specific relative alignments of the inflow magnetic fields and X-line, with implications for MMS operations designed to maximize the number of close encounters with the diffusion region. At intermediate MHD-to-ion scales, reconstruction of features created by one or two X-lines have developed to the point where data from a cluster of spacecraft can determine their temporal trends and the approximate three-dimensional X-line structure. Recent petascale particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations of reconnection encompass three spatial dimensions with excellent resolution, and make striking predictions of electron scale physics that creates complex interacting flux ropes under component reconnection. High time resolution measurements from MMS will determine the detailed electron scale kinetics embedded within the global and MHDion scale contexts. These developments will lead to the refinement of our three-dimensional multiscale picture of reconnection, yielding improved understanding of the global, MHD, and local physics controlling the onset or quenching, variability, and mean rate of reconnection. This in turn will enable improved predictability of the structural features created by transient reconnection, and their space weather consequences.

Reconnection↗

NASA NTRS2017

Introduction: Photons and Ground-Based

A Conference on Measurement Techniques for Solar and Space Physics was held on 20-24 April 2015 in Boulder, Colorado, at the National Center for Atmospheric Research Center Green Campus. The present volume collects together the conference papers for photons and ground-based categories. This gathering of over 200 scientists and instrumentalists was born out of the desire to collect in one place the latest experiment and instrument technologies required for advancement of scientific knowledge in the disciplines of solar and space physics. The two goals for this conference and the subsequent publication of its content are (a) to describe measurement techniques and technology development needed to advance high priority science in the fields of solar and space physics; and (b) to provide a survey or reference of techniques for in situ measurement and remote sensing of space plasmas. Towards this end, our goal has always been inspired by the two 1998 Geophysical Monographs (Nos. 102 and 103) entitled, "Measurement Techniques in Space Plasmas" (particles and fields) [Pfaff et al., 1998a, 1998b], which have served as a reference and resource for advanced students, engineers, and scientists who wish to learn the fundamentals of measurement techniques and technology in this field. Those monographs were the product of an American Geophysical Union Chapman Conference that took place in Santa Fe, NM, in 1995: "Measurement Techniques in Space Plasmas-What Works, What Doesn't." Two decades later, we believe that it is appropriate to revisit this subject, in light of recent advances in technology, research platforms, and analysis techniques. Moreover, we now include direct measurements of neutral gases in the upper atmosphere, optical imaging techniques, and remote observations in space and on the ground. Accordingly, the workshop was organized among four areas of measurement techniques: particles, fields, photons, and ground-based. This two-set volume is largely composed of the content of that workshop. Special attention is given to those techniques and technologies that demonstrate promise of significant advancement in measurements that will enable the highest priority science as described in the 2012 National Research Council Decadal Survey [Baker and Zurbuchen et al., 2013]. Additionally, a broad tutorial survey of the current technologies is provided to serve as reference material and as a basis from which advanced and innovative ideas can be discussed and pursued. Included are instrumentation and techniques to observe the solar environment from its interior to its outer atmosphere, the heliosphere out to the interstellar regions, in geospace, and other planetary magnetospheres and atmospheres. To make significant progress in priority science as expressed in the National Research Council solar and space physics decadal survey and recent NASA Heliophysics roadmaps, identification of enabling new measurement techniques and technologies to be developed is required. Also, it is valuable to the community and future scientists and engineers to have a complete survey of the techniques and technologies used by the practitioners of solar and space physics. As with the 1995 conference and subsequent 1998 publication, it is incumbent on the community to identify those measurements that are particularly challenging and still require new techniques to be identified and tested to enable the necessary accuracy and resolution of certain parameters to be achieved. The following is a partial list of the measurement technique categories that are featured in these special publications: Particles; Thermal plasma to MeV energetic particles, neutral gas properties including winds, density, temperature, and composition, and enhanced neutral atom imaging; Fields; DC electric and magnetic fields, plasma waves, and electron drift instruments from which the plasma velocity information provides a measure of the DC electric field; Photons; Instruments sensitive from the near-infrared to X-rays; Contributions of techniques and technology for optical design, optical components, sensors, material selection for cameras, telescopes, and spectrographs; Ground based; Remote sensing methods for solar and geospace activity and space weather. The focus includes solar observatories, all-sky cameras, lidars, and ionosphere thermosphere mesosphere observatory systems such as radars, ionosondes, GPS receivers, magnetometers, conjugate observations, and airborne campaigns. The present volume collects together the papers for photons and ground-based categories. The companion volume collects together the papers for particles and fields categories. It is recognized that there are measurement techniques that overlap among the four categories. For example, use of microchannel plate detectors is used in photon and particle measurement techniques or the observation of visible photons and magnetic fields in space and on the ground share common technologies. Therefore, the reader should consider the entire collection of papers as they seek to understand particular applications. We hope that these volumes will be as valuable as a reference for our community as the earlier 1998 volumes have been.

Spann, James↗

NASA NTRS2016

Geomagnetically Induced Currents Around the World During the 17 March 2015 Storm

Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) represent a significant space weather issue for power grid and pipeline infrastructure, particularly during severe geomagnetic storms. In this study, magnetometer data collected from around the world are analyzed to investigate the GICs caused by the 2015 St. Patricks Day storm. While significant GIC activity in the high-latitude regions due to storm time substorm activity is shown for this event, enhanced GIC activity was also measured at two equatorial stations in the American and Southeast Asian sectors. This equatorial GIC activity is closely examined, and it is shown that it is present both during the arrival of the interplanetary shock at the storm sudden commencement (SSC) in Southeast Asia and during the main phase of the storm approximately 10 h later in South America. The SSC caused magnetic field variations at the equator in Southeast Asia that were twice the magnitude of those observed only a few degrees to the north, strongly indicating that the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) played a significant role. The large equatorial magnetic field variations measured in South America are also examined, and the coincident solar wind data are used to investigate the causes of the sudden changes in the EEJ approximately 10 h into the storm. From this analysis it is concluded that sudden magnetopause current increases due to increases in the solarwind dynamic pressure, and the sudden changes in the resultant magnetospheric and ionospheric current systems, are the primary drivers of equatorial GICs.

Carter, B. A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Advancing Theory and Modeling Efforts in Heliophysics

Heliophysics theory and modeling build understanding from fundamental principles to motivate, interpret, and predict observations. Together with observational analysis, they constitute a comprehensive scientific program in heliophysics. As observations and data analysis become increasingly detailed, it is critical that theory and modeling develop more quantitative predictions and iterate with observations. Advanced theory and modeling can inspire and greatly improve the design of new instruments and increase their chance of success. In addition, in order to build physicsbased space weather forecast models, it is important to keep developing and testing new theories, and maintaining constant communications with theory and modeling. Maintaining a sustainable effort in theory and modeling is critically important to heliophysics. We recommend that all funding agencies join forces and consider expanding current and creating new theory and modeling programs–especially, 1. NASA should restore the HTMS program to its original support level to meet the critical needs of heliophysics science; 2. a Strategic Research Model program needs to be created to support model development for next-generation basic research codes; 3. new programs must be created for addressing mission-critical theory and modeling needs; and 4. enhanced programs are urgently required for training the next generation of theorists and modelers.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2022

A 2D Kaleidoscope of Electron Heat Fluxes Driven by Auroral Electron Precipitation

Electron heat flux is an important value for ionospheric space weather modeling networks. Utilizing the 2D array of Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms all-sky-imager (ASI) observations, Gabrielse et al. (2021, https://doi.org/10.3389/fphy.2021.744298) described a new method that estimates the auroral scale sizes of intense precipitating electron energy fluxes and their mean energies during two substorms on 16 February 2010. These parameters in combination with SuperThermal Electron Transport code were used to develop a new methodology to calculate electron thermal fluxes from data inputs in 2D during one of the substorms at 09:40:00 UT across Canada and Alaska. To test the effect of various precipitation lifetimes on electron heat flux values, boxcar averages ranging from 0 to 900 s were applied to the ASI data. These data are then combined with the newly developed kinetic simulation to determine the thermal fluxes associated with the observed diffuse and discrete precipitation.

Electron precipitation in aurora↗

NASA NTRS2023

Parameter Dependencies of Early-Stage Tangential Discontinuity-Driven Foreshock Bubbles in Local Hybrid Simulations

Foreshock bubbles (FBs) are significant foreshock transients that can accelerate particles and disturb the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. In the kinetic formation model, foreshock ions interact with the discontinuity by performing partial gyrations to generate currents that change the magnetic field topology around the discontinuity. However, how different foreshock ion properties affect the growth of the field variations is not well understood. Therefore, we use 2-D local hybrid simulations to study the effects of different foreshock ion distributions and properties on the growth of tangential discontinuity (TD)-driven FBs. We discover that for a gyrophase-bunched distribution with an initial phase where the guiding center is on the other side of the TD, the foreshock ions gyrate together across the TD, causing more foreshock ions to cross the TD and leading to a faster expansion of the structure than for a Maxwellian distribution. A ring distribution also yields higher expansion speeds because of the higher projected velocity into the new perpendicular direction. For Maxwellian distributions, there are positive and linear correlations of the FB expansion speeds with the initial foreshock ion densities, thermal speeds, parallel speeds, and sine of the TD magnetic shear angles. These parameter dependencies grow in strength as the structures evolve with time. The foreshock ion distributions and properties that lead to stronger currents produce more significant magnetic field variations and higher expansion speeds. Our study helps quantify the formation and expansion of FBs to forecast their space weather effects and contribution to shock acceleration.

Andrew Vu↗

NASA NTRS2014

AE Geomagnetic Index Predictability for High Speed Solar Wind Streams: A Wavelet Decomposition Technique

High speed solar wind streams cause geomagnetic activity at Earth. In this study we have applied a wavelet interactive filtering and reconstruction technique on the solar wind magnetic field components and AE index series to allowed us to investigate the relationship between the two. The IMF Bz component was found as the most significant solar wind parameter responsible by the control of the AE activity. Assuming magnetic reconnection associated to southward directed Bz is the main mechanism transferring energy into the magnetosphere, we adjust parameters to forecast the AE index. The adjusted routine is able to forecast AE, based only on the Bz measured at the L1 Lagrangian point. This gives a prediction approximately 30-70 minutes in advance of the actual geomagnetic activity. The correlation coefficient between the observed AE data and the forecasted series reached values higher than 0.90. In some cases the forecast reproduced particularities observed in the signal very well.The high correlation values observed and the high efficacy of the forecasting can be taken as a confirmation that reconnection is the main physical mechanism responsible for the energy transfer during HILDCAAs. The study also shows that the IMF Bz component low frequencies are most important for AE prediction.

Space weather↗

NASA NTRS2002

Mechanisms for the Dissipation of Alfven Waves in Near-Earth Space Plasma

Alfven waves are a major mechanism for the transport of electromagnetic energy from the distant part of the magnetosphere to the near-Earth space. This is especially true for the auroral and polar regions of the Earth. However, the mechanisms for their dissipation have remained illusive. One of the mechanisms is the formation of double layers when the current associated with Alfven waves in the inertial regime interact with density cavities, which either are generated nonlinearly by the waves themselves or are a part of the ambient plasma turbulence. Depending on the strength of the cavities, weak and strong double layers could form. Such double layers are transient; their lifetimes depend on that of the cavities. Thus they impulsively accelerate ions and electrons. Another mechanism is the resonant absorption of broadband Alfven- wave noise by the ions at the ion cyclotron frequencies. But this resonant absorption may not be possible for the very low frequency waves, and it may be more suited for electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves. A third mechanism is the excitation of secondary waves by the drifts of electrons and ions in the Alfven wave fields. It is found that under suitable conditions, the relative drifts between different ion species and/or between electrons and ions are large enough to drive lower hybrid waves, which could cause transverse accelerations of ions and parallel accelerations of electrons. This mechanism is being further studied by means of kinetic simulations using 2.5- and 3-D particle-in-cell codes. The ongoing modeling efforts on space weather require quantitative estimates of energy inputs of various kinds, including the electromagnetic energy. Our studies described here contribute to the methods of determining the estimates of the input from ubiquitous Alfven waves.

Singh, Nagendra↗

NASA NTRS2007

Space Weather Nowcasting of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety

There is a growing concern for the health and safety of commercial aircrew and passengers due to their exposure to ionizing radiation with high linear energy transfer (LET), particularly at high latitudes. The International Commission of Radiobiological Protection (ICRP), the EPA, and the FAA consider the crews of commercial aircraft as radiation workers. During solar energetic particle (SEP) events, radiation exposure can exceed annual limits, and the number of serious health effects is expected to be quite high if precautions are not taken. There is a need for a capability to monitor the real-time, global background radiations levels, from galactic cosmic rays (GCR), at commercial airline altitudes and to provide analytical input for airline operations decisions for altering flight paths and altitudes for the mitigation and reduction of radiation exposure levels during a SEP event. The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) model is new initiative to provide a global, real-time radiation dosimetry package for archiving and assessing the biologically harmful radiation exposure levels at commercial airline altitudes. The NAIRAS model brings to bear the best available suite of Sun-Earth observations and models for simulating the atmospheric ionizing radiation environment. Observations are utilized from ground (neutron monitors), from the atmosphere (the METO analysis), and from space (NASA/ACE and NOAA/GOES). Atmospheric observations provide the overhead shielding information and the ground- and space-based observations provide boundary conditions on the GCR and SEP energy flux distributions for transport and dosimetry simulations. Dose rates are calculated using the parametric AIR (Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation) model and the physics-based HZETRN (High Charge and Energy Transport) code. Empirical models of the near-Earth radiation environment (GCR/SEP energy flux distributions and geomagnetic cut-off rigidity) are benchmarked against the physics-based CMIT (Coupled Magnetosphere- Ionosphere-Thermosphere) and SEP-trajectory models.

Mertens, Christopher J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Open-Source Data Engineering at NASA: CCMC's Approach to Managing Petabyte-Scale Heliophysics Data

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) leads heliophysics research by providing open access to numerous models and their outputs. Our resources are available on-demand and continuously updated with real-time data, covering sun-earth interactions across multiple domains. These domains include coronal, heliosphere, inner and global magnetosphere, ionosphere, thermosphere, and lower atmosphere interactions. Operating in a hybrid environment, CCMC utilizes both self-owned hardware and Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud infrastructure. Managing petabytes of data across multiple locations necessitates robust data engineering solutions. To address this challenge, CCMC has adopted industry-standard and open-source tools. We use Apache Airflow as our primary data engineering platform, Python for scripting and data processing, and GitLab for version control and CI/CD. Additionally, we employ Kubernetes for containerized services, Grafana and Prometheus for metrics and monitoring, and Terraform and Puppet for reproducible infrastructure as code. This presentation will discuss lessons learned from our data engineering experiences, platforms evaluated but found unsuitable for our scientific data requirements, and specific techniques developed to enhance data transfer speed and reliability. By using these technologies effectively, CCMC continues to advance heliophysics research through efficient data management and open-access modeling.

space weather↗

DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Prediction of Geomagnetic Storms and the K p index

Geomagnetic activity is often described using summary indices to summarize the likelihood of space weather impacts, as well as when parameterizing space weather models. The geomagnetic index K p in particular, is widely used for these purposes. Current state-of-the-art forecast models provide deterministic K p predictions using a variety of methods – including empirically-derived functions, physics-based models, and neural networks – but do not provide uncertainty estimates associated with the forecast. This paper provides a sample methodology to generate a 3-hour-ahead K p prediction with uncertainty bounds and from this provide a probabilistic geomagnetic storm forecast. Specifically, we have used a two-layered architecture to separately predict storm (K p ≥ 5 – ) and non-storm cases. As solar wind-driven models are limited in their ability to predict the onset of transient-driven activity we also introduce a model variant using solar X-ray flux to assess whether simple models including proxies for solar activity can improve the predictions of geomagnetic storm activity with lead times longer than the L1-to-Earth propagation time. By comparing the performance of these models we show that including operationally-available information about solar irradiance enhances the ability of predictive models to capture the onset of geomagnetic storms and that this can be achieved while also enabling probabilistic forecasts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗