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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2025

Accurate and uncertainty-aware multi-task prediction of HEA properties using prior-guided deep Gaussian processes

Surrogate modeling techniques have become indispensable in accelerating the discovery and optimization of high-entropy alloys (HEAs), especially when integrating computational predictions with sparse experimental observations. This study systematically evaluates the training and testing performance of four prominent surrogate models—conventional Gaussian processes (cGP), Deep Gaussian processes (DGP), encoder-decoder neural networks for multi-output regression and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)—applied to a hybrid dataset of experimental and computational properties of the 8-component HEA system Al-Co-Cr-Cu-Fe-Mn-Ni-V. We specifically assess their capabilities in predicting correlated material properties, including yield strength, hardness, modulus, ultimate tensile strength, elongation, and average hardness under dynamic/quasi-static conditions, alongside auxiliary computational properties. The comparison highlights the strengths of hierarchical deep modeling approaches in handling heteroscedastic, heterotopic, and incomplete data commonly encountered in materials science. Our findings illustrate that combined surrogate models such as DGPs infused with machine-learned priors outperform other surrogates by effectively capturing inter-property correlations and by assimilating prior knowledge. This enhanced predictive accuracy positions the combined surrogate models as powerful tools for robust and data-efficient materials design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

A hybrid numerical and machine learning framework for evaluating the performance of a 780 cm 2 aqueous organic redox flow battery

Aqueous organic redox flow battery (AORFB) is a promising cost-competitive technology for large-scale energy storage. Among existing work, the dihydroxyphenazine (DHP)-based AORFB has demonstrated high energy density and low capacity degradation in 10 cm2 cells during lab tests. However, its commercial-scale performance in more complex environments remains unknown, posing a barrier for commercialization. To address this gap, this work presents a comprehensive performance evaluation of a 780 cm 2 DHP-based AORFB by combining physics-based numerical model, machine learning (ML)-based surrogate models, and ML-derived sensitivity quantification. Specifically, we first select 12 key battery parameters that include 10 physicochemical quantities and 2 operation quantities, then select 6 performance metrics that include energy efficiency (EE), discharging capacity, charging energy, and power losses due to concentration, activation, and ohmic over-potentials. With such selection, 12800 combinations of the 12 parameters are subsequently generated using the Latin Hypercube Sampling method. These combinations, together with 38 pre-defined State of Charge, are then integrated to a validated AORFB model developed in COMSOL to compute the performance metrics. With both input parameters and performance metrics, 60 deep neural network (DNN) surrogate models are then trained to approximate the relationship between the 10 physicochemical quantities and 6 performance metrics at each flow rate and current density. Sensitivity scores are then calculated based on the DNN models. Two additional sensitivity analysis tools, i.e., MARS, and SHAP, are also used to cross-validate the sensitivity scores from the DNN. The results demonstrate that 1) the standard potential ranks the first in controlling EE and charging energy, 2) the membrane conductivity is most critical for power loss and EE, and 3) specific area and reaction rate control activation power loss.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating large scale aqueous organic redox flow battery performance with a hybrid numerical and machine learning framework

Aqueous organic redox flow battery (AORFB) is a promising cost-competitive technology for large-scale energy storage. Among existing work, the dihydroxyphenazine (DHP)-based AORFB has demonstrated high energy density and low-capacity degradation in 10 cm$^2$ cells during lab tests. However, its commercial-scale performance in more complex environments remains unknown, posing a barrier to commercialization. To address this gap, this work presents a comprehensive performance evaluation of a 780 cm$^2$ DHP-based AORFB by combining a physics-based numerical model, machine learning (ML)-based surrogate models, and ML-derived sensitivity quantification. Specifically, we first select 12 key battery parameters that include 10 physicochemical and 2 operation quantities, then select 6 performance metrics that include energy efficiency (EE), discharging capacity, charging energy, and power losses due to concentration, activation, and ohmic over-potentials. With such selection, 12800 combinations of the 12 parameters are subsequently generated using the Latin Hypercube Sampling method. Such combinations, together with 38 pre-defined State of Charge, are then integrated to a validated AORFB model developed in COMSOL to compute the performance metrics. With both input parameters and performance metrics, 60 deep neural network (DNN) surrogate models are then trained to approximate the relationship between the 10 physicochemical quantities and 6 performance metrics at each flow rate and current density. Sensitivity scores are then calculated based on the DNN models. Two additional sensitivity analysis tools, i.e., MARS, and SHAP, are also used to cross-validate the sensitivity scores from the DNN. The results demonstrate that 1) the standard potential ranks first in controlling EE and charging energy, 2) the membrane conductivity is most critical for power loss and EE, and 3) specific area and reaction rate control activation power loss.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probing Sensitivity of Discharge Characteristics to Model Selection using Uncertainty Quantification in an aprotic Li-Oxygen Battery

Currently, there are several models in the literature, such as kinetic models, microstructural models, and mass transport models that describe a Li-air battery's discharge behavior. Many of these models are calibrated and tested at low current densities and cannot be easily transferred to high current densities. Even at low current densities, there is no quantitative method for a researcher to choose a reaction kinetic model such as classical Butler-Volmer and its derivatives, and modified Marcus-Hush-Chidsey, a resistance model for lithium peroxide such as electron transport via tunneling or linear resistivity, a surface coverage model (lithium peroxide growth) such as partial coverage or full coverage, and mass transport model (discussed in Ref. [1]). Also, it is time-consuming to test different models at high current density (1C) due to a lack of well-tested models and well-calibrated model parameters. For this presentation, we will develop an analytical model, which acts as a surrogate model for a sophisticated finite element model to predict discharge time and discharge voltage. Next, we use an uncertainty quantifying technique called reduced-order stochastic optimization [2, 3] to determine the uncertainty in model parameters for rate kinetics, lithium peroxide resistivity, and parasitic resistance. Finally, a finite element simulation is performed to determine the error introduced by the surrogate model and its influence on the uncertainty in the model parameters.

M Mehta↗

DOE OSTI2026

TCAD-Machine Learning Enabled TID Compact Model Development for Commercial SiC MOSFET

We propose a TCAD (Technology Computer Aided Design)-machine learning coupled approach that combines a TCAD tool (Charon), optimization/uncertainty quantification tool (Dakota), surrogate models, and Bayesian learning capabilities. The coupling approach is used for accurate modeling and calibration of total ionizing dose (TID) induced threshold voltage (V th ) shifts in Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) semiconductor devices and to develop physics-informed TID compact models. This versatile approach is applied to model the TID effect in an exemplar COTS 3.3 kV SiC power MOSFET (Metal-Oxide-Semiconductor Field-Effect Transistor). With the Charon-Dakota coupling, we can determine key device geometry and doping values based on device physics, which are difficult to obtain or not available for COTS devices but important for TCAD simulation; additionally, we can efficiently generate thousands of simulation results in a large parameter space, which makes it possible to develop data-driven surrogate models and perform Bayesian calibration. Utilizing the full tool-coupling approach, we achieve calibrated TCAD simulation models that accurately capture the average TID-induced V th shifts behavior with total doses and V th shifts saturation at high doses as observed in experimental data. More importantly, the calibrated TCAD simulations are obtained with determined TID model parameters (e.g., hole trap density and capture cross section) values that contain well quantified uncertainties. Furthermore, we can isolate and quantify the noises that are not captured by the TCAD models but exist in the measured data due to measurements and devices variabilities. Lastly, the calibrated surrogate models are used to develop physics-informed TID compact models. The method is generalizable to other devices and/or radiation conditions with few modifications and can provide well-determined uncertainties.

COTS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Modeling of a Three-Stage Human Landing System Architecture

Unmitigated uncertainties are known to have previously led to failed development programs; in order to combat these uncertainties, risks and their impacts must be understood and handled to ensure program success. In this paper, a probabilistic methodology to handle uncertainties is demonstrated on a three-element Human Landing System (HLS) concept, which allows tracking of current best estimates of the vehicle’s performance and assessment of its robustness against uncertainties. This methodology has two key parts: ﬁrst, the creation of a dynamic architecture model of a three-element HLS concept; and second, its use with surrogate modeling and range estimating techniques to capture and propagate uncertainties. The DYnamic Rocket EQuation Tool (DYREQT), a space systems synthesis and sizing framework used by NASA, was used as to model the HLS architecture. For the probabilistic analysis, uncertainties of interest within the HLS concept were enumerated and represented as parameters within the DYREQT model as inputs for vehicle stages or mission proﬁle events. Range estimating — a probabilistic method that combines Monte Carlo sampling, focus on critical parameters, and heuristics to assess risk and opportunities — is then adapted with operational parameters as well as vehicle parameters in the DYREQT model to capture mission uncertainty alongside vehicle uncertainty. To perform the range estimation portion of this methodology, the DYREQT model was sampled using a Design of Experiments (DoE) to eﬃciently explore the architecture design space with respect to the set of uncertainty parameters. Then, the results were used to create surrogate models, multivariate regressions that can visualize hypercube trends in the design space, of the architecture with respect to the uncertainty parameters. Using a correlation matrix constructed for the uncertainty parameters, previously independent samples were transformed to perform a Correlated Monte Carlo on the surrogate models. This probabilistic methodology was proved to provide insight into the underlying uncertainties of the three-element HLS architecture.

Stephanie Y Zhu↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Modeling of a Three-Stage Human Landing System Architecture

Stephanie Y. Zhu↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hybrid PDES Simulation of HPC Networks Using Zombie Packets

Although high-fidelity network simulations have proven to be reliable and cost-effective tools to peer into architectural questions for high-performance computing (HPC) networks, they incur a high resource cost. The time spent in simulating a single millisecond of network traffic in the highest detail can take hours, even for static, well-behaved traffic patterns such as uniform random. Surrogate models offer a significant reduction in runtime, yet they cannot serve as complete replacements and should only be used when appropriate. Thus, there is a need for hybrid modeling, where high-fidelity simulation and surrogates run side-by-side. Here, we present a surrogate model for HPC networks in which: packets bypass the network, while the network state is left untouched, i.e., suspended. To bypass the network, we use historical data to estimate the arrival time at which every packet should be scheduled at; to suspend the network, all in-flight packets are scheduled to arrive at their destinations, and are kept in the system to awaken as zombies when switching back to high-fidelity. Speedup for a hybrid model is relative to the proportion of surrogate to high-fidelity. This light-weight surrogate obtained up to 76× speedup. Keeping the zombies in the network showed an increase in the accuracy of the high-fidelity simulation on restart when compared to restarting the network from an empty state.

HPC networks↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multi-Modal Bayesian Neural Network Surrogates with Conjugate Last-Layer Estimation

As data collection and simulation capabilities advance, multi-modal learning, the task of learning from multiple modalities and sources of data, is becoming an increasingly important area of research. Surrogate models that learn from data of multiple auxiliary modalities to support the modeling of a highly expensive quantity of interest have the potential to aid outer loop applications such as optimization, inverse problems, or sensitivity analyses when multi-modal data are available. We develop two multi-modal Bayesian neural network surrogate models and leverage conditionally conjugate distributions in the last layer to estimate model parameters using stochastic variational inference (SVI). We provide a method to perform this conjugate SVI estimation in the presence of partially missing observations. Here, we demonstrate improved prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to unimodal surrogate models for both scalar and time series data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis of Non-Nuclear Advanced Controls Testbed Reactor Mockup

The research presented in this report describes our progress in applying stochastic methods and uncertainty quantification, parametric study, and variance-based sensitivity analysis (also known as Sobol sensitivity analysis) to a full-core model of a nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) system simulated with Griffin, with the goal of developing a reduced order (surrogate) model which can be rapidly sampled while perturbing multiple input parameters. In this NTP system, reactivity and power feedback affect the rotation of control drums, which are controlled by a hybrid proportional, integral and derivative (PID) controller, actuated by the power demand and reactivity feedback from the numerical model. This model uses reactor kinetic feedback (mean generation time and $\beta$ from a transient Griffin simulation executed with the improved quasi-static method to provide the kinetic parameters) as inputs to functions which control the CD rotation angle. Using a number of stochastic method approaches, we developed a dual purpose training-surrogate model of the NTP system using polynomial regression. The trained model can be rapidly sampled while simultaneously perturbing various input parameters of the model, such as coefficients on the PID control, or temperature (directly affect the neutron cross section). The surrogate model delivers accurate results orders-of-magnitude faster (minutes, not days) than the base model. Once the base model has been trained, distributions of the uncertain parameters can be changed at will to investigate the effects of perturbing multiple inputs and their effect on the output. For example, coefficients used in the PID control system may vary due to some physical interference, or there may be uncertainty in the temperature of the neutron cross sections in various regions of the reactor. A distribution can be placed on these parameters and operational boundaries can be determined. The goal of this work is to support development of an advanced control system to operate CDs in a functioning NTP system.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS2019

Improving Accuracy of Structural Dynamic Modification with Augmented Residual Vectors

It is often important to perform sensitivity analysis to determine how a structural model will be impacted by design changes. Often, the structural analysts will manually make changes to the finite element model (FEM) to determine the effects. But when dealing with a large FEM with millions of degrees of freedom these manual changes can be cumbersome and calculation of the effects can computationally expensive. Therefore, it is desirable to determine the effects of model changes through approximation methods. One common technique is to determine the analytical sensitivity of the FEM model with respect to the given change. These analytical sensitivities are valid when small changes are made to the structural model, but invalid if large changes need to be assessed. Another approach is to use Structural Dynamic Modification (SDM) to create a surrogate model to analyze model changes. SDM is a widely-used sensitivity method and is used in applications of model updating, uncertainty quantification, and model design studies. SMD is valid for moderate (10-20 percent) changes in the structural model, but model approximations are often needed for large parameter changes (greater than 20 percent). Structural Dynamic Modification can be improved by using residual vectors to augment the surrogate model formulation from SDM. Adding the residual modes increases the fidelity of the surrogate model while keeping the computational cost low. This paper discusses the application and limitations of the augmented residual modes method to two structures: the Integrated Spacecraft and Payload Element (ISPE) of the Space Launch System (SLS) and the full SLS as it is configured during its Integrated Modal Test (IMT).

Stewart, Eric C.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Incorporating corrosion design constraints in desalination process optimization: A case study in mechanical vapor compression

Corrosion is an expensive and complex challenge for desalination, yet current design approaches do not explicitly account for corrosion mechanisms in process modeling and technoeconomic analysis. Here, to address this gap, we present a workflow for incorporating corrosion design constraints directly into desalination process optimization models. We develop surrogate models for general and localized corrosion metrics as functions of temperature, pH, salinity, dissolved oxygen, and material using data from OLI Systems’ Corrosion Analyzer. We then integrate these surrogates as corrosion design constraints in a cost-optimization MVC model that minimizes the levelized cost of water (LCOW). For a case study of mechanical vapor compression (MVC) treating seawater across a range of recoveries, we find dissolved oxygen (DO) is the dominant driver of localized corrosion, and thus of cost-optimal material choice and operating conditions. Reducing the DO from 8 mg/L to 0.5 mg/L reduces the LCOW by 15-35%, informing the breakeven costs for implementing DO removal or selecting highly corrosion-resistant alloys. This framework is broadly applicable across corrosion types, materials, and components and enables desalination process design that minimizes capital costs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic data-driven multiscale modeling for predicting the degradation of a 316L stainless steel nuclear cladding material

Here, we have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bridging Hydrological Ensemble Simulation and Learning Using Deep Neural Operators

Ensemble-based simulation and learning (ESnL) has long been used in hydrology for parameter inference, but computational demands of process-based ESnL can be quite high. To address this issue, we propose a deep neural operator learning approach. Neural operators are generic machine learning algorithms that can learn functional mappings between infinite-dimensional spaces, providing a highly flexible tool for scientific machine learning. Our approach is built upon DeepONet, a specific deep neural operator, and is designed to address several common problems in hydrology, namely, model parameter estimation, prediction at ungaged locations, and uncertainty quantification. Here we demonstrate the effectiveness of our DeepONet-based workflow using an existing large model ensemble created for an eastern U.S. watershed that is instrumented with 10 streamflow gages. Results suggest DeepONet achieves high efficiency in learning an ML surrogate model from the model ensemble, with the modified Kling-Gupta Efficiency exceeding 0.9 on holdout test sets. Parameter inference, carried out using the trained DeepONet surrogate model and genetic algorithm, also yields robust results. Additionally, we formulate and train a separate DeepONet model for physics-informed, seq-to-seq streamflow forecasting, which further reduces biases in the pre-trained DeepONet surrogate model. While this study focuses primarily on a single watershed, our approach is general and may be extended to enable learning from model ensembles across multiple basins or models. Thus, this research represents a significant contribution to the application of hybrid machine learning in hydrology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Accelerating the design of lattice structures using machine learning

Lattices remain an attractive class of structures due to their design versatility; however, rapidly designing lattice structures with tailored or optimal mechanical properties remains a significant challenge. With each added design variable, the design space quickly becomes intractable. To address this challenge, research efforts have sought to combine computational approaches with machine learning (ML)-based approaches to reduce the computational cost of the design process and accelerate mechanical design. While these efforts have made substantial progress, significant challenges remain in (1) building and interpreting the ML-based surrogate models and (2) iteratively and efficiently curating training datasets for optimization tasks. Here, we address the first challenge by combining ML-based surrogate modeling and Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) analysis to interpret the impact of each design variable. We find that our ML-based surrogate models achieve excellent prediction capabilities (R 2 > 0.95) and SHAP values aid in uncovering design variables influencing performance. We address the second challenge by utilizing active learning-based methods, such as Bayesian optimization, to explore the design space and report a 5 × reduction in simulations relative to grid-based search. Collectively, these results underscore the value of building intelligent design systems that leverage ML-based methods for uncovering key design variables and accelerating design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Density functional theory-based surrogate kinetic models for heterogeneous reactions of hydrocarbon intermediates on silicon carbide

The increasing demand for high-performance materials in advanced technologies highlights the importance of achieving a fundamental understanding and potential control of silicon carbide (SiC) deposition processes. However, existing models often lack sufficient theoretical detail, relying heavily on empirical data and offering limited predictive capability. In particular, the complex surface chemistry governing SiC growth remains poorly understood. This study addresses these challenges by employing density functional theory (DFT) to investigate key heterogeneous reactions involving hydrocarbon intermediates on SiC surfaces, including dehydrogenation, hydrogenation, and carbon deposition. Transition state searches were conducted to identify reaction pathways and energy barriers. While first-principles calculations offer high accuracy, they are computationally intensive. To extend the utility of these first-principles results, vibrational analyses were performed using phonon-based statistical thermochemistry to compute temperature-dependent reaction rates which were used to develop Arrhenius-type surrogate kinetic models. Furthermore, the resulting framework provides a more rigorous, physically grounded basis for integrating atomistic insights into continuum-scale modeling, ultimately enabling improved prediction and optimization of SiC film growth in high-performance material systems.

Density Functional Theory↗

DOE OSTI2025

Micromechanical Surrogate Machine Learning Model for Creep Deformation Modeling

Process variability during the manufacture of gas turbine engine hot section components can significantly affect the material’s resulting microstructure. In casting, for instance, geometric variation within a component (thin sections versus thick sections, radial location) influences cooling rates and the resulting grain size. The high temperature creep response is known to be sensitive to grain size owing to a diffusional creep mechanism which occurs more readily along grain boundaries. Microstructural variation correspondingly drives mechanical behavior which propagates into component scale performance uncertainty. These factors are essential when planning inspection, maintenance, and repair strategies within a reliability framework. These benefits provide opportunities to increase overall energy efficiency through refined margins. Critically, there is an opportunity to bolster existing data-driven reliability models using physics-driven process-structure-property relations. Here we present recent work establishing a framework for evaluating the probabilistic creep performance of high-temperature materials. A novel microstructure-sensitive crystal plasticity finite element model is established that captures both grain boundary and crystallographic deformation effects. The computationally expensive physics model is calibrated using a statistical approach and this high-fidelity model is subsequently used to train a computationally efficient machine learning surrogate model. The surrogate model is essential for sampling a large ensemble of simulated structure-property pair results. The ensemble data are then mined to extract salient trends to be incorporated into a microstructure-sensitive reliability model. The proposed approach represents a novel way to capture microstructure-sensitive trends from physics-based models within a modern reliability framework.

Fernandez-Zelaia, Patxi [ORNL]↗

NASA NTRS2015

Thermal Protection System Mass Estimating Relationships for Blunt-Body, Earth Entry Spacecraft

System analysis and design of any entry system must balance the level fidelity for each discipline against the project timeline. One way to inject high fidelity analysis earlier in the design effort is to develop surrogate models for the high-fidelity disciplines. Surrogate models for the Thermal Protection System (TPS) are formulated as Mass Estimating Relationships (MERs). The TPS MERs are presented that predict the amount of TPS necessary for safe Earth entry for blunt-body spacecraft using simple correlations that closely match estimates from NASA's high-fidelity ablation modeling tool, the Fully Implicit Ablation and Thermal Analysis Program (FIAT). These MERs provide a first order estimate for rapid feasibility studies. There are 840 different trajectories considered in this study, and each TPS MER has a peak heating limit. MERs for the vehicle forebody include the ablators Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) and Carbon Phenolic atop Advanced Carbon-Carbon. For the aftbody, the materials are Silicone Impregnated Reusable Ceramic Ablator (SIRCA), Acusil II, SLA-561V, and LI-900. The MERs are accurate to within 14% (at one standard deviation) of FIAT prediction, and the most any MER under predicts FIAT TPS thickness is 18.7%. This work focuses on the development of these MERs, the resulting equations, model limitations, and model accuracy.

mass estimating relationship (MER)↗