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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing Traffic Signal Control to Enhance Transportation Efficiency and Maximize Pedestrian Benefits in the Road Network

Increasing urban mobility requirements demand efficient transportation system strategies for both vehicular and pedestrian movement. This study enhances the Decentralized Graph-based Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (DGMARL) approach, originally tailored for vehicular traffic signal timing, to incorporate pedestrian traffic dynamics. The improved algorithm considers crucial metrics such as Eco_PI, assesses vehicle fuel consumption by factoring in stops and delays, and addresses pedestrian waiting time, crucial for system efficiency while acknowledging driver waiting time impact. Utilizing Digital Twin simulation along the MLK Smart Corridor in Chattanooga, Tennessee, the algorithm's performance is compared for various pedestrian control scenarios. To evaluate the effectiveness of DGMARL, this study compared DGMARL-enabled signal management with automated pedestrian traffic detection and an actuated signal management system (real-word baseline) with pedestrian recall, which predetermingly enforces a pedestrian phase every cycle. Findings indicate substantial improvements with DGMARL, showing a 28.29% enhancement in vehicle Eco_PI, a 60.55 % reduction in pedestrian waiting time, and a 55.74% decrease in driver stop delay, on average, compared to the baseline actuated signal timing plan.

Kumarasamy, Vijayalakshmi K [The University of Ten↗
DOE OSTI2025

Next-Level Energy Management in Manufacturing: Facility-Level Energy Digital Twin Framework Based on Machine Learning and Automated Data Collection

This research introduces an energy prediction framework at the facility level supported by automated data collection and machine learning models. It investigates whether reducing the prediction time scale allows for applying more complex machine learning techniques and if those techniques improve the prediction accuracy. The primary advantages of this framework lie in its automation of the energy prediction process and its provision of real-time energy data suitable for use in energy dashboards or digital twins. A sitewide dataset was created by combining 15 min energy and daily production data of five shops—assembly, battery, body (electric), body (gas), and paint—from a globally recognized electric vehicle manufacturer. Various machine learning models were evaluated on daily, weekly, and monthly datasets, including, in increasingly complex order: naïve, simple linear regression, net regularized generalized linear regression, principal component regression, k-nearest neighbor, random forest, and Bayesian regularized neural network. Compared to the current state-of-the-art energy consumption prediction for the industrial facility level, this research investigates more complex models and smaller time intervals for higher accuracy. The findings revealed that the more complex monthly models require a minimum of a year and a half of data to operate, while weekly models demand a year of data to achieve improved accuracy. Daily models can operate with only six months of data but exhibit poor performance due to reduced prediction accuracy of production. Key challenges identified include access to reliable, high-quality energy and production data and the initial demand for human labor.

digital twin↗
DOE OSTI2025

GenAI-Based Digital Twins Aided Data Augmentation Increases Accuracy in Real-Time Cokurtosis-Based Anomaly Detection of Wearable Data

Early detection of potential infectious disease outbreaks is crucial for developing effective interventions. In this study, we introduce advanced anomaly detection methods tailored for health datasets collected from wearables, offering insights at both individual and population levels. Leveraging real-world physiological data from wearables, including heart rate and activity, we developed a framework for the early detection of infection in individuals. Despite the availability of data from recent pandemics, substantial gaps remain in data collection, hindering method development. To bridge this gap, we utilized Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Networks (WGANs) to generate realistic synthetic wearable data, augmenting our dataset for training. Subsequently, we use these augmented datasets to implement a cokurtosis-based technique for anomaly detection in multivariate time-series data. Our approach includes a comprehensive assessment of uncertainties in synthetic data compared to the actual data upon which it was modeled, as well as the uncertainty associated with fine-tuning anomaly detection thresholds in physiological measurements. Through our work, we present an enhanced method for early anomaly detection in multivariate datasets, with promising applications in healthcare and beyond. This framework could revolutionize early detection strategies and significantly impact public health response efforts in future pandemics.

Data-Driven Digital Twins↗
NASA NTRS1989

Aircraft integrated design and analysis: A classroom experience

AAE 451 is the capstone course required of all senior undergraduates in the School of Aeronautics and Astronautics at Purdue University. During the past year the first steps of a long evolutionary process were taken to change the content and expectations of this course. These changes are the result of the availability of advanced computational capabilities and sophisticated electronic media availability at Purdue. This presentation will describe both the long range objectives and this year's experience using the High Speed Commercial Transport design, the AIAA Long Duration Aircraft design and RPV design proposal as project objectives. The central goal of these efforts is to provide a user-friendly, computer-software-based environment to supplement traditional design course methodology. The Purdue University Computer Center (PUCC), the Engineering Computer Network (ECN) and stand-alone PC's are being used for this development. This year's accomplishments center primarily on aerodynamics software obtained from NASA/Langley and its integration into the classroom. Word processor capability for oral and written work and computer graphics were also blended into the course. A total of ten HSCT designs were generated, ranging from twin-fuselage aircraft, forward swept wing aircraft to the more traditional delta and double-delta wing aircraft. Four Long Duration Aircraft designs were submitted, together with one RPV design tailored for photographic surveillance.

Weisshaar, Terrence A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Knowledge-Informed Uncertainty-Aware Machine Learning for Time Series Forecasting of Dynamical Engineered Systems

The high complexity and multiscale nature of many engineered systems—such as those in nuclear power plants—make representing and forecasting their dynamic behavior challenging. Physics-based models can be overly complex and computationally intractable, whereas machine learning (ML) tools are often data-hungry and prone to unphysical solutions. This study proposes a knowledge-informed ML-aided hybrid residual modeling approach that offers accurate and efficient time series forecasting for the operation of dynamical engineered systems. Hybrid residual modeling entails a baseline solution from domain knowledge and known physics expressions about the system dynamics integrated with an ML model to capture undiscovered information from the mismatch (i.e., residuals) between true states from measurements and baseline-predicted outputs. This study further quantifies the ML model uncertainty to provide trustworthy solutions. Real-time operational data from thermal-hydraulic flow loops of the cryogenic moderator system in Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Spallation Neutron Source facility were used to demonstrate the potential of knowledge-informed uncertainty-aware ML in real-world applications. The state variables of the cryogenic helium loop were modeled with (1) first principles–based system identification (sysID), (2) long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, and (3) hybrid sysID (baseline) + LSTM (residual). The superior predictive capability of the sysID+LSTM model versus stand-alone sysID and LSTM is confirmed by average performance metrics and individual data points across different prediction horizons. By creating a robust representation of the underlying physical system, the widely applicable hybrid residual modeling approach will enable the future development of digital twins for performance prediction, prognostics, and operation control.

Zhao, Xingang↗
DOE OSTI2025

A hybrid surrogate modeling framework for the Digital Twin of a Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (FHR)

While nuclear energy is a non-greenhouse-gas emitting energy source, expensive operational costs due to the high-level of safety requirements decreases their competitiveness in the sustainable energy market. Advanced reactor concepts paired with Digital Twins aim to increase the commercialization gains of nuclear energy by reducing operational costs, increasing reactor reliability and enhancing power generation. To support Digital Twin tasks such as real-time autonomous control, proactive maintenance monitoring or optimizing power demand operations, a fast and accurate virtual representation of the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) is required. The computational cost of high-fidelity, physics-based models are unsuitable for real-time analysis or scalability. Here, in this work, a hybrid surrogate modeling framework is developed fora Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (FHR) that leverages physics-inspired models for key reactor components and uses data-driven methods for rapid system state space prediction. The Xenon reactivity feedback model is integrated to inform the surrogate model about the reactor core and the homologous pump theory model is the basis for representing pump degradation. Using a detailed, two dimensional thermal hydraulics model to generate data on the FHR, we train a network of Vectorized Autoregressive Moving-Average with eXogenous input (VARMAX) models to predict the remaining state values. The result is a surrogate model that provides a detailed reactor state representation of 41 system states and a pump degradation analysis. The framework is applied to Load Follows profiles, yielding high accuracy and a speedup that is more than 4000x faster compared to the higher- fidelity thermal hydraulics model, enabling real-time operational intelligence and applications in long horizon predictions. While the surrogate model framework is demonstrated for the particular case of FHR, the hybrid physical/data-driven modeling approach including the network of surrogates and the underlying modularity has the potential to be applied to other physical asset systems.

Digital Twins↗
DOE OSTI2025

Differentiable hybrid neural network approach for enhancing reactor dynamics simulations

Reactor dynamics simulations provide essential insights into the time-dependent behavior of nuclear reactors under various operating conditions. However, high-fidelity simulations can be computationally intensive, requiring significant computational resources. Here, to address this challenge, this study employs a differentiable hybrid model that utilizes neural networks as a corrector to enhance the performance of a low-fidelity simulation, aligning its predictions with those of a high-fidelity simulation. Low-fidelity and high-fidelity simulations were obtained by adjusting the mesh size in the System Dynamics Analysis Tool. The differentiable hybrid model was trained in two approaches: time-step-wise and sequence-wise. It was then applied to simulate various transients in a molten salt reactor. Its performance was evaluated by comparing its responses to transients against those of the high-fidelity simulation. An additional approach was performed using a data-driven model to correct the low-fidelity simulation. In comparison, the differentiable hybrid model showed significant improvements in transient prediction, effectively addressing the limitations of the low-fidelity simulations. The results highlighted the robustness of the differentiable hybrid model in both training approaches. It delivered simulations that were at least 3.8 times faster than high-fidelity models. In the time-step-wise approach, it achieved at least a 39% improvement in accuracy. In the sequence-wise approach, it showed at least an 81% accuracy improvement over the full transient. This approach offers a promising path for improving computational efficiency without compromising accuracy in nuclear reactor simulations, making it suitable for real-time digital twin applications.

42 - ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1988

Aircraft integrated design and analysis: A classroom experience

AAE 451 is the capstone course required of all senior undergraduates in the School of Aeronautics and Astronautics at Purdue University. During the past year the first steps of a long evolutionary process were taken to change the content and expectations of this course. These changes are the result of the availability of advanced computational capabilities and sophisticated electronic media availability at Purdue. This presentation will describe both the long range objectives and this year's experience using the High Speed Commercial Transport (HSCT) design, the AIAA Long Duration Aircraft design and a Remotely Piloted Vehicle (RPV) design proposal as project objectives. The central goal of these efforts was to provide a user-friendly, computer-software-based, environment to supplement traditional design course methodology. The Purdue University Computer Center (PUCC), the Engineering Computer Network (ECN), and stand-alone PC's were used for this development. This year's accomplishments centered primarily on aerodynamics software obtained from the NASA Langley Research Center and its integration into the classroom. Word processor capability for oral and written work and computer graphics were also blended into the course. A total of 10 HSCT designs were generated, ranging from twin-fuselage and forward-swept wing aircraft, to the more traditional delta and double-delta wing aircraft. Four Long Duration Aircraft designs were submitted, together with one RPV design tailored for photographic surveillance. Supporting these activities were three video satellite lectures beamed from NASA/Langley to Purdue. These lectures covered diverse areas such as an overview of HSCT design, supersonic-aircraft stability and control, and optimization of aircraft performance. Plans for next year's effort will be reviewed, including dedicated computer workstation utilization, remote satellite lectures, and university/industrial cooperative efforts.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2024

Photovoltaic Analysis and Response Support (PARS) Platform for Solar Situational Awareness and Resiliency Services

The project's primary objective is to develop a digital-twin based Photovoltaic (PV) Analysis and Response Support (PARS) platform, which aims to provide real-time situational awareness and optimal response plans. This platform is designed to enhance the performance of hybrid PV systems, making them competitive with or even superior to conventional generation resources. The PARS platform enabled the project team to develop and evaluate an extensive suite of grid support functionalities for the hybrid PV systems to enhance grid performance, across key areas including visibility, dispatchability, security, resilience, and reliability. Given the global push toward achieving 100% clean energy by 2035, there is a significant increase in the integration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) throughout the energy grid. Effectively managing the inherent variability and uncertainty associated with IBRs is crucial for ensuring cost-effectiveness, reliability, and security in both the main grid and islanded microgrids. Constrained to a limited array of IEEE test systems or standard feeder models, traditional IBR modeling struggles to assimilate new field data, accurately reflect system dynamics, and adapt to the evolving energy landscape. In our project, we embraced a Digital Twin (DT) strategy for crafting the PARS platform. A digital twin acts as a precise virtual counterpart of a physical system, built on historical data and continuously honed with real-time insights. This enables the high-fidelity DT to accurately mirror current system operations and forecast future scenarios. Consequently, the PARS platform becomes an ideal environment for testing and refining monitoring, control, power, and energy management algorithms designed to boost hybrid PV system performance. The defining feature of the PARS platform, distinguishing it from other advanced simulation tools, is its exceptional adaptability. This is achieved by employing actual network topologies and utilizing real-time field data for fine-tuning and calibration, ensuring a close emulation of real-world conditions. The project deliverables include: 1) High-fidelity IBR models and tools for real-time parameterization, utilizing real-time field measurements to refine IBR models for enhanced accuracy and performance; 2) Grid-forming and Grid-following capabilities to deliver resilience services, including blackstart, voltage and frequency support, cold-load pick-up, power reserves, and three-phase load balancing across grid-connected and microgrid settings; 3) Machine learning-based forecasting tools and methods for generating synthetic data and topologies, creating diverse and realistic simulation environments for evaluating varied operational scenarios; 4) Advanced microgrid power and energy management algorithms for optimizing the integration and operation of PV, storage, and demand response resources within both feeder and community scales. The power grid data sets are provided by four utility companies in North Carolina and the New York Power Administration. Acting as industry advisors, our industry partners communicated stakeholder needs and regulatory standards to the research teams, aiding technology transfer by incorporating the developed methodologies into their daily operations. This collaboration ensures that the PARS platform, functioning as a power system digital twin, enhances our understanding of IBR dynamic behaviors and enables the development and evaluation of IBR control functions that match or exceed the capabilities of conventional synchronous generators.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Physics Informed Neural Nets for Systems Health Management

To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current health state of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions. Development in data-driven algorithms in regression of complex nonlinear functions and classification tasks have generated a growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. Complex multi-physics models as well as digital twins, once purely built on physics and corresponding simplified lumped parameter iterations, can now benefit from machine learning algorithms to mitigate the lack of understanding of some complex behavior. The research work presents application of physics-informed neural nets application to a representative electric powertrain for unmanned aerial vehicles. The model is composed of physics-derived and empirical equations, integrated with connected networks that are strategically placed within the model to substitute equations that are subject to large uncertainty. Polynomial fit driven by heuristics or empirical observations can be substituted by more flexible networks that can minimize the error between model predictions and observations without being restricted to a predefined functional form. This modeling strategy allows training of networks deep inside the model and unknown parameters in a single learning stage.

Physics Informed↗
NASA NTRS2013

Onsala Space Observatory: IVS Network Station

During 2012 we participated in 40 IVS sessions. As in the previous four years, we used the majority of the sessions that involved both Onsala and Tsukuba to do ultra-rapid dUT1 observations together with our colleagues in Tsukuba. We observed one four-station ultra-rapid EOP session together with Tsukuba, Hobart, and HartRAO. We also observed the RadioAstron satellite and several GLONASS satellites using the Onsala 25-m telescope. The highlight in 2012 was that our proposal to the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation to establish a twin-telescope system at Onsala in accordance with the VLBI2010 recommendations was accepted.

Haas, Ruediger↗
DOE OSTI2023

Digital Twin for Hydropower System Object Modeling: Alder Dam (FY2023)

Hydropower is the world's largest source of renewable electricity, and hydropower plants are distributed all over the world. Typical major components of a hydropower plant are the governor, excitation, generator, thrust bearing, hydraulic turbine, transformer, the main lead, metering and control, tailwater depression, and dissolved oxygen. For each component, various measures are taken. The measurements are acquired by various heterogeneous systems, including standalone sensors, programmable logic controllers (PLC), Supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA), Internet of Things (IoT), and data acquisition and integration platforms such as OSI/PI. The measured data are often archived within the plant by a data management platform, and many institutions have cloud-based archive systems, such as Hydropower Research Institution (HRI), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), and Columbia River Data Access in Real Time (DART). Object Modeling is a general framework for designing information systems. It focuses on objects, the actions they perform, and the messages they send to one another to cause those actions to be taken. The major differences among object modeling, network modeling, data modeling, and process modeling are that in the first we focus on the actions in response to information, objects which form the system, the actions they perform, and how they pass information to one another, while in the second we concentrate on where, when and how much information is moved, while in the third we focus on what information is moved and where it is moved, while in the last we focus on how it is moved and when it is moved. Object modeling was developed basically as a method to develop object-oriented systems and to support object-oriented programming. It describes the static structure of the system. The object Modeling Technique is easy to draw and use. That is why we choose object modeling to connect physical hydropower plants to Digital Twin. It recognizes the objects and the relationship between them. It identifies the attributes and functions of each class. Dynamic Modeling: It explains how objects respond to events. Functional Modeling indicates the processes executed in an object and how data changes when it moves to objects. It has been used in many applications like telecommunication, transportation, etc.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Probabilistic Reasoner Based on Bayes Risk for Damage Detection in Structural Systems

Structural health monitoring (SHM) systems are used to inform operation of structural systems subject to loads and environments that may affect their integrity. SHM systems rely on continuous monitoring of the structure to determine its health state. These systems are often coupled with a model of the deployed structure to determine the consequences of changes in the system by forecasting the response to future states. These models, which may be thought of as digital twins, need to be updated to reflect the latest state of the structural system. This work makes use of an uncertainty-aware machine learning model that enforces distance preservation of the original input space to determine deviations from the training data input space distributions. This workflow enables domain shift detection to determine whether damage is present in the structure. The uncertainty metrics generated by this network are then used in a Bayes risk framework to design an optimal damage detector given cost and risk considerations. The approach is demonstrated on a computational example with simulated damage.

Najera-Flores, David [ATA Engineering, Inc.]↗
DOE OSTI2024

A comparative study on deep learning models for condition monitoring of advanced reactor piping systems

Advanced nuclear reactors offer innovative applications due to their portability, reliability, resiliency, and high capacity factors. To operate them on a wider scale, reducing maintenance life-cycle costs while ensuring their integrity is essential. Autonomous operations in advanced nuclear reactors using augmented Digital Twin (DT) technology can serve as a cost-effective solution by increasing awareness about the system’s health. A key component of nuclear DT frameworks is the condition monitoring of safety systems, such as piping-equipment systems, which involves acquiring and monitoring the plant’s sensor data. Here, this research proposes a condition monitoring methodology utilizing deep learning algorithms, such as multilayer perceptions (MLP) and convolutional neural networks (CNNs), to detect degradation and its severity in nuclear piping-equipment systems. Sensor signals are processed to obtain the power spectral density and the Short-Time Fourier transform, and feature extraction methodologies are proposed to develop degradation-sensitive data repositories. The performance of MLP, one-dimensional (1D) CNN, and 2D CNN within the proposed condition monitoring framework is compared using a finite element model of a 3D piping system subjected to seismic loads as the application case study. Various approaches, such as dropout, k-Fold validation, regularization, and early stopping of training the network, are investigated to avoid overfitting the models to the input sensor data. The predictive capability and computational capacity of the deep learning algorithms are also compared to detect degradation in the Z-pipe system of the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBRII). The Z-pipe system is subjected to harmonic excitations that represent normal operating loads, such as pump-induced vibrations. The findings of the study indicate that the proposed artificial intelligence (AI)-driven condition monitoring framework demonstrates superior prediction accuracies with a 2D CNN, whereas the MLP exhibits higher computational efficiency.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

An in situ ambient and cryogenic transmission electron microscopy study of the effects of temperature on dislocation behavior in CrCoNi-based high-entropy alloys with low stacking-fault energy

Temperature is known to affect deformation mechanisms in metallic alloys. As temperature decreases, the stacking-fault energy in many face-centered cubic (fcc) alloys decreases, resulting in a change of deformation mode from dislocation slip to deformation twinning. Such an impact of temperature can be more complex in compositionally heterogeneous microstructures that exhibit, for example, local concentration fluctuation such as that in multi-principal element alloys. In this work, we compare the dislocation behavior and mechanical properties of a fcc Cr 20 Mn 10 Fe 30 Co 30 Ni 10 high-entropy alloy at ambient and liquid-nitrogen temperatures. We find that a network of stacking faults is formed by uniformly extended dislocations at ambient temperatures with low stacking-fault energy, whereas at lower temperatures, uneven dissociation of dislocations becomes significant, which results in severe dislocation pile-ups together with their pronounced entanglement. Our findings indicate that as the stacking-fault energy decreases with decreasing temperature, the heterogeneity of the distribution of elements becomes more dominant in tuning the local variation of lattice resistance. As a result, the change in dislocation behavior at low temperatures strongly affects microstructural evolution and consequently leads to significantly more pronounced work hardening.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Memory embedded non-intrusive reduced order modeling of non-ergodic flows

Generating a digital twin of any complex system requires modeling and computational approaches that are efficient, accurate, and modular. Traditional reduced order modeling techniques are targeted at only the first two, but the novel nonintrusive approach we present in this study is an attempt at taking all three into account effectively compared to their traditional counterparts. Based on dimensionality reduction using proper orthogonal decomposition (POD), we introduce a long short-term memory neural network architecture together with a principal interval decomposition (PID) framework as an enabler to account for localized modal deformation. As an effective partitioning tool for breaking the Kolmogorov barrier, our PID framework, therefore, can be considered a key element in the accurate reduced order modeling of convective flows. Our applications for convection-dominated systems governed by Burgers, Navier-Stokes, and Boussinesq equations demonstrate that the proposed approach yields significantly more accurate predictions than the POD-Galerkin method and could be a key enabler toward near real-time predictions of unsteady flows.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Carbondale Community Geothermal Coalition – Replicable Models for Decarbonizing Mixed-Use Rural Communities

The Carbondale Community Geothermal Coalition (CCGC) set out to prove that a fifth-generation geothermal district heating & cooling (5G GDHC) network can be technically feasible, cost-effective, and socially equitable for a small, mixed-use rural community. During Budget Period 1 (Planning & Design) the team: ● Completed a 449 ft thermal-response test confirming excellent ground conductivity (k = 1.69 Btu ft -1 hr -1 °F -1 ) and a benign 56.3 °F undisturbed temperature. Page 1 Final Technical Report for Award Number: DE-EE0010663 ● Built a fully calibrated digital twin (URBANopt → Modelica) for 240 k ft 2 of existing + future buildings. ● Designed a 75-borehole ambient-temperature loop (ATL) augmented by 75 solar-thermal panels, supplying 44 % of district heating and 100 % cooling in Stage-1. ● Produced retrofit bid-ready drawings for the Third Street Center and Second Street Townhomes. ● Reached > 200 community stakeholders and exceeded equity targets (46 % Hispanic/Latinx participation). ● Drafted a multi-tiered workforce plan aligned with Colorado Mountain College (Hispanic Serving Institution) and IGSHPA certifications.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting Short-Term Deformation in the Central Valley Using Machine Learning

Land subsidence caused by excessive groundwater pumping in Central Valley, California, is a major issue that has several negative impacts such as reduced aquifer storage and damaged infrastructures which, in turn, produce an economic loss due to the high reliance on crop production. This is why it is of utmost importance to routinely monitor and assess the surface deformation occurring. Two main goals that this paper attempts to accomplish are deformation characterization and deformation prediction. The first goal is realized through the use of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) applied to a series of Interferomtric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) images that produces eigenimages displaying the key characteristics of the subsidence. Water storage changes are also directly analyzed by the use of data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) twin satellites and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). The second goal is accomplished by building a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model to predict short-term deformation after developing an InSAR time series using LiCSBAS, an open-source InSAR time series package. The model is applied to the city of Madera and produces better results than a baseline averaging model and a one dimensional convolutional neural network (CNN) based on a mean squared error metric showing the effectiveness of machine learning in deformation prediction as well as the potential for incorporation in hazard mitigation models. The model results can directly aid policy makers in determining the appropriate rate of groundwater withdrawal while maintaining the safety and well-being of the population as well as the aquifers’ integrity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗