Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “error rate”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 181 records · Page 10

Validating corrosion models: A comparison of governing equations

Experimental validation of Finite Element Method (FEM) models varying electrochemical governing equations, inclusion of chemical reactions, and time on the resultant damage profile for two galvanic couples is explored. Two anode materials (Magnesium AZ31 and Carbon Steel) in contact with a cathode (Stainless Steel 304 L) were modeled in/exposed to NaCl (1 and 0.1 M respectively for the anode materials) for up to one week. The physics approach, inclusion of chemical reactions, and the boundary conditions required to accurately represent the damage profile in FEM models depended on the galvanic couple materials and, ultimately, the corrosion rate. For high rates of corrosion (i.e., magnesium anode), the Nernst-Planck equation with Electroneutrality was sufficient to describe the damage, while, for low rates of corrosion (i.e., carbon steel anode), the Laplace equation was sufficient. In all cases, the most complete governing equation (Nernst-Planck-Poisson Equation) was not necessary to accurately describe the damage. Precipitation reactions in solution also played a critical role in the predicted damage profile, especially for high corrosion rate systems. Finally, for short time periods (< 6 h), the choice of governing equations does not significantly influence damage profile results. Overall, the choice of physics to reduce error in simulations relies on the boundary conditions, geometry, conductivity of the solution, electrochemical potential differences, and time of exposure. The above results are discussed with regard to accuracy and computational savings.

Carbon steel↗

Robust Data-Driven Predictive Run-to-Run Control for Automated Serial Sectioning

This letter presents a one-step predictive run-to-run controller (R2R-MPC) for the automation of mechanical serial sectioning (MSS), a destructive material analysis process. To address the inherent uncertainty and disturbances in the MSS process, a robust closed-loop approach is presented. Here, the robust R2R-MPC models the uncertainty of the MSS process using a linear differential inclusion. As an analytical model of the MSS process is unavailable, the differential inclusion is identified from historical data. The R2R-MPC is posed as an optimization problem that computes incremental changes to the control input which minimize the worst-case material removal errors. This optimization-based controller is combined with a run-to-run controller to provide integral action that rejects constant disturbances and tracks constant reference removal rates. To demonstrate the efficacy of our robust R2R-MPC, we present simulation results which compare the presented controller with a conventional non-robust R2R.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Predictive Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification in Condition Monitoring of Active Components: A Reactor Coolant Pump Use Case

This work develops data-driven models for onset of thermal barrier leakage in reactor coolant pumps. It incorporates uncertainty quantification to enhance the reliability and robustness of pre- dictions. Using synthetic data generated by the Generic Pressurized Water Reactor simulator, realistic degradation scenarios were simulated across lifecycle stages—beginning, middle, and end of life. Key variables, including differential pressure, flow rate, vibration, and temperatures, were analyzed using machine learning framework. The fully connected neural network models demonstrated exceptional performance, achieving R2 scores exceeding 0.99 and root mean square errors as low as around 8.23 × 10-2 gallon per minute (gpm) for the three stages of the lifecy- cle. UQ analysis further validated the model’s robustness, with narrow uncertainty bounds during steady-state operations and appropriately wider bounds during transitional phases, reflecting the physical behavior of the system. This work addresses important gaps in real-time condition moni- toring and regulatory compliance by integrating advanced condition monitoring technologies with UQ into IST programs. The ability to detect thermal barrier leakage early and quantify prediction reliability supports optimizing maintenance strategies while ensuring nuclear power plants’ safe and reliable operation.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Computing material volume fractions on a superimposed mesh as applied to Monte Carlo particle transport simulations

Here, we present a newly implemented ray tracing algorithm in OpenMC for efficiently computing material volume fractions on superimposed meshes in complex geometries. By firing rays along each coordinate direction through the geometry, the approach accumulates track-length data in each mesh element, thereby determining the fractional composition of each material. Scaling studies on three different models—a random tetrahedra configuration, the Frascati Neutron Generator ITER dose rate benchmark, and a stellarator design—show excellent parallel performance, with nearly linear speedup on modern multi-threaded and distributed-memory systems. An analysis of the residual error relative to high-resolution reference solutions demonstrated that under optimal conditions it decreases as 1/R, where R is the number of rays fired, making it straightforward to achieve user-prescribed accuracy. This new functionality enables practical, mesh-based approaches for detailed nuclear analyses in production Monte Carlo workflows without resorting to expensive, fully conformal or unstructured meshing.

Monte Carlo↗

Wet-radome attenuation in ARM cloud radars and its utilization in radar calibration using disdrometer measurements

Abstract. A relative calibration technique has been developed for the US Department of Energy's (DOE's) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility Ka-band ARM Zenith Radars (KAZRs). This method uses the signal attenuation caused by water on the radome to estimate reflectivity factor (Ze) offsets. The wet-radome attenuation (WRA) is assumed to follow a log-linear relationship with rainfall rate during light and moderate rain, as measured by a collocated surface disdrometer. The technique has an uncertainty of approximately 3 dB, due to factors such as disdrometer measurement error, rain variability between radar and disdrometer sample volumes, and the fitting function's uncertainty for the WRA behavior. A practical advantage of this WRA-based approach to shorter-wavelength radar monitoring is that, while it requires a reference disdrometer, it proves feasible for a wider range of collocated disdrometer measurements compared to traditional direct disdrometer comparison at the onset of light rain. This technique thus offers a cost-effective monitoring tool for remote or long-term radar deployments. This calibration technique was applied during the ARM Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) from October 2021 through September 2022. The estimated Ze offsets were compared against traditional radar calibration and monitoring methods using available datasets from this campaign. Results show that the WRA-based offsets align closely with mean offsets found between cloud radars and from direct disdrometer comparison near the onset of rain, while also reflecting similar offset and campaign-long trends when compared to collocated, independently calibrated radar wind profilers. Nevertheless, overall, the KAZR Ze offsets estimated during TRACER remained stable at approximately 2 dB lower than the disdrometer estimates from the campaign start until the end of June 2022; afterward, the offsets increased to around 7 dB by the campaign's end. This increase is linked to a drop of about 1 dB in transmitter power toward the end of the project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A fault-tolerant neutral-atom architecture for universal quantum computation

Quantum error correction (QEC) is essential for the realization of large-scale quantum computers. However, owing to the complexity of operating on the encoded ‘logical’ qubits, understanding the physical principles for building fault-tolerant quantum devices and combining them into efficient architectures is an outstanding scientific challenge. Here we use reconfigurable arrays of up to 448 neutral atoms to implement the key elements of a universal, fault-tolerant quantum processing architecture and experimentally explore their underlying working mechanisms. We first use surface codes to study how repeated QEC suppresses errors, demonstrating 2.14(13)x below-threshold performance in a four-round characterization circuit by leveraging atom loss detection and machine learning decoding. We then investigate logical entanglement using transversal gates and lattice surgery and extend it to universal logic through transversal teleportation with three-dimensional [[15,1,3]] codes, enabling arbitrary-angle synthesis with polylogarithmic overhead. Finally, we develop mid-circuit qubit reuse16, increasing experimental cycle rates by two orders of magnitude and enabling deep-circuit protocols with dozens of logical qubits and hundreds of logical teleportations with [[7,1,3]] and high-rate [[16,6,4]] codes while maintaining constant internal entropy. Our experiments show key principles for efficient architecture design, involving the interplay between quantum logic and entropy removal, judiciously using physical entanglement in logic gates and magic state generation, and leveraging teleportations for universality and physical qubit reset. These results establish foundations for scalable, universal error-corrected processing and its practical implementation in neutral atom systems.

atomic and molecular physics↗

Explainable machine learning reveals that local structural motifs encode the thermodynamic state across the CuZr metallic glass-forming range

Metallic glasses derive their properties from the statistics of local atomic motifs rather than from long-range order, yet a quantitative, chemistry-specific link between motif populations and the underlying glassy state has remained elusive. In this work we combine large-scale molecular dynamics, Voronoi tessellation, deep neural networks, and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to identify which local structural motifs define the glassy state of Cu—Zr metallic glasses. A dataset of 17,180 atomistic configurations spanning ten compositions (Cu 20 Zr 80 –Cu 80 Zr 20 ) and four quench rates (10 9 –10 12 K/s) is used to train a feed-forward neural network that regresses temperature across the 50–2000 K liquid–supercooled–glass range, achieving a mean absolute error of 19.89 K and R 2 = 0.9974, confirming that the local structural state is faithfully encoded in motif-level structure. SHAP analysis then reveals that a tightly coupled near-icosahedral family of motifs (coordination numbers (CN) 11–13, including the full icosahedron 001200 and its single-atom-perturbation sibling 10930) collectively encodes the thermodynamic state of the system across the full glass-forming range. The CN = 11–13 ordered members carry negative SHAP values at high populations, tracking the most deeply-quenched configurations, while 10930 shows the reversed signature consistent with its role as a soft-spot host whose population shrinks as the icosahedral network deepens. The analysis demonstrates that explainable machine learning can isolate the minimal motif vocabulary defining the glassy state and recovers the near-icosahedral building blocks previously identified by data-driven analyses of Cu—Zr. The approach provides a general, chemistry-specific route for characterizing the structural state of disordered materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Effective Li-Ion Transport Quantification in Composite Cathodes for All-Solid-State Batteries via Multiscale Modeling and Experiments

The tortuosity factor of composite cathodes significantly affects the rate performance of all-solid-state batteries (ASSBs) and has significant differences from systems with liquid electrolytes. Here, in this work, we report a simulation-experiment combined approach that quantifies the effective Li-ion transport in an ASSB composite cathode, which links tortuosity factor on ∼ μm scale to terminal voltage during cycling at the cell level (on ∼ cm scale). Two independent approaches of tortuosity factor quantification are considered: fitting electrochemical cycling data and verifying at different cycling rates and calculating from segmented tomography images, with the tortuosity factor quantified from both methods reaching self-consistency. The simulated terminal voltage using the quantified tortuosity factor has a small relative error of <3% compared to the experimental measurements. We find a significantly reduced value of the Bruggeman exponent of the catholyte phase (1.75), and using shape analysis, we show that rod-shaped catholyte particles play an important role in lowering the tortuosity factor.

Yao, Archie Mingze [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, ↗

Misclassification of causes of death among a small all-autopsied group of former nuclear workers: Death certificates vs. autopsy reports

The U.S. Transuranium and Uranium Registries performs autopsies on each of its deceased Registrants as a part of its mission to follow up occupationally-exposed individuals. This provides a unique opportunity to explore death certificate misclassification errors, and the factors that influence them, among this small population of former nuclear workers. Underlying causes of death from death certificates and autopsy reports were coded using the 10 th revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10). These codes were then used to quantify misclassification rates among 268 individuals for whom both full autopsy reports and death certificates with legible underlying causes of death were available. When underlying causes of death were compared between death certificates and autopsy reports, death certificates correctly identified the underlying cause of death’s ICD-10 disease chapter in 74.6% of cases. The remaining 25.4% of misclassified cases resulted in over-classification rates that ranged from 1.2% for external causes of mortality to 12.2% for circulatory disease, and under-classification rates that ranged from 7.7% for external causes of mortality to 47.4% for respiratory disease. Neoplasms had generally lower misclassification rates with 4.3% over-classification and 13.3% under-classification. A logistic regression revealed that the odds of a match were 2.8 times higher when clinical history was mentioned on the autopsy report than when it was not. Similarly, the odds of a match were 3.4 times higher when death certificates were completed using autopsy findings than when autopsy findings were not used. This analysis excluded cases where it could not be determined if autopsy findings were used to complete death certificates. The findings of this study are useful to investigate the impact of death certificate misclassification errors on radiation risk estimates and, therefore, improve the reliability of epidemiological studies.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Automated vehicle microscopic energy consumption study (AV-Micro): Data collection and model development

While the Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) system in automated vehicles (AVs) is expected to impact transportation energy significantly, existing AV energy consumption models only directly adopt those developed with Human-driven Vehicle (HV) data without even slight adaptation or calibration to accommodate unique AV energy consumption features. This study will investigate how accurately HV data-based models can predict the energy consumption of AVs. Empirical trajectory data and corresponding instantaneous energy consumption rates from both AVs and HVs were collected. We adopted two classical HV data-based models to fit these data. The calibration results indicated that these models yield around 20 30% prediction errors for AVs. To further improve the prediction accuracy, this study designed an AV-Micro model by incorporating components of multiple classic energy consumption models that better capture ACC energy consumption features, including piecewise driving behavior. With this, the AV-Micro model achieves lower than 10% prediction errors. The AV-Micro model’s high consistency across different test runs was verified with statistical significance tests, demonstrating its adaptability in different driving profiles. To confirm the discrepancies between the energy consumption features of AVs and HVs, more statistical significance tests were conducted to show that the AV-Micro model cannot be directly applied to HV data. The findings by calibrated AV-Micro models revealed that AVs consume approximately 80.5–146.4 J more energy than HVs for each meter traveled. Furthermore, the frequency analysis of energy consumption indicates that there is still some room for AVs to improve energy efficiency, particularly given their larger amplitude high-frequency fluctuations.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Leveraging machine learning to enhance aerosol classification using Single-Particle Mass Spectrometry

Advancing automated classification of atmospheric aerosols from Single-Particle Mass Spectrometry (SPMS) data remains challenging due to overlapping ion signatures, compositional diversity, and limited labeled data. This study evaluates supervised and semi-supervised learning frameworks to enhance aerosol identification by jointly leveraging labeled and unlabeled spectra. Four models were compared: a supervised Support Vector Machine (SVM), a self-training SVM, a stacked autoencoder classifier, and a stacked autoencoder trained using a temporal-ensembling Mean Teacher approach. All models achieved high and stable accuracies (90.0 %–91.1 %), surpassing previous results on the same dataset (87 %) and matching the performance of state-of-the-art deep learning methods. Despite small global metric differences (≤ 1 %), semi-supervised variants yielded up to 5 %–10 % improvements for compositionally rare particle types – such as soot (0.77 % of spectra, F1-score: 0.93–0.97) and hazelnut pollen (0.98 % of spectra, F1-score: 0.97–1.00) – equating to roughly ∼ 187 additional correctly classified spectra. These gains are scientifically significant, as such rare particles exert disproportionate influence on radiative absorption and ice nucleation processes; their improved detection reduces modeled uncertainties in aerosol absorption optical depth and mixed-phase cloud ice nucleation rates. The models' residual misclassifications (≈ 9 %) largely arise from true spectral overlap among chemically adjacent species (e.g., Na- vs. K-feldspar, coated vs. uncoated feldspars), reflecting physical compositional continuity rather than algorithmic error. Collectively, these findings demonstrate that leveraging unlabeled data to learn robust spectral representations and refine classification enhances both fidelity and interpretability, bridging data-driven analysis with aerosol–climate process understanding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measurement of D-T Neutron Source Flux by SelfNeutron Activation Analysis with a LaBr3 Detector

Conclusions: • Decay of 78Br produced from the 79Br(n,2n) reaction in LaBr3 is present in the spectrum plotted in the time domain. • The neutron production rate reconstructed from preliminary LaBr3 estimate is smaller than the generator output. • Generator characterization may become more routine if a simple and robust method is made available for applications. Ongoing work: • Implementing bootstrapping to improve error estimates. • Examining threshold and edge effects of LaBr3

SMITH, MURRY↗

Real-Time Detection of Charge Jumps in Superconducting Qubits with a Convolutional Neural Network

Ionizing radiation from cosmic rays and gammas can induce discontinuous jumps in the environmental charge of superconducting qubits (charge jumps), causing correlated errors that challenge fault-tolerant quantum computing while simultaneously providing a detection signature for quantum sensing applications. Current detection methods operate offline, introducing latency incompatible with in-the-loop qubit control. In this paper, an online detector of charge jumps for superconducting qubits, based on a dilated causal convolutional neural network (DCCNN) designed for in-the-loop deployment on the Quantum Instrumentation Control Kit (QICK) platform, is presented. The network is trained on synthetic Ramsey tomography scans generated from qubit templates measured at the Northwestern Experimental Underground Site (NEXUS) at Fermilab, and translated to FPGA firmware via hls4ml with ap_fixed$\langle 16,6 \rangle$ quantization, reaching a per-inference latency of $6.19 μ$s on the Zynq UltraScale+ RFSoC ZCU216. At this operating point the DCCNN matches the detection efficiency of the established offline $χ^2$ algorithm ($0.843 \pm 0.022$ vs. $0.866 \pm 0.020$ on $|Δq| \in [0.1, 0.5] e$ at matched false-positive rate), while requiring no per-qubit hyperparameter tuning. This shifts charge-jump detection from a post-hoc diagnostic to a control-loop primitive, enabling adaptive protocols that respond to radiation-induced events in situ, with applications to quantum-computing error mitigation and to the use of superconducting qubits as particle detectors.

Gaytan-Villarreal, Daniel [Carnegie Mellon U.]↗

Development of Readily Available & Robust High Heat Flux Gardon Gauges

Concentrated solar power (CSP) technologies deliver concentrated solar energy as a heat source to industrial processes, power generation cycles, and chemical cycles. CSP systems require accurate and reliable high flux measurements, and next generation CSP systems will require flux measurement up to 1000 W/cm2. Existing flux measurement devices do not comprehensively meet the flux rating, cycle life, cost, and lead-time needs of stakeholders, necessitating the development of an improved flux sensor. In this study, Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) partnered with Hukseflux Thermal Sensors to develop a low-cost, short lead-time, and robust flux sensor rated to 250 W/cm2. Three prototype circular foil gauge designs were assessed for performance at the National Solar Thermal Test Facility (NSTTF) at SNL. Each gauge design measured flux up to 250 W/cm2 with <5% measurement error. Following baseline error quantification, gauges were exposed to flux above 500 W/cm2 to assess gauge failure mechanisms. Gauges physically survived >500 W/cm2 flux exposure, but measurement error was found to increase after foil coatings reached 400 °C. The results of this study suggest that coating optical properties change at excessive temperatures and that foil coating temperature, rather than heat flux level, dictates the acceptable gauge measurement range.

McLaughlin, Luke (ORCID:0000000303711310)↗

A hybrid neural architecture: Online attosecond x-ray characterization

The emergence of high-repetition-rate x-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs), such as SLAC’s LCLS-II, serves as our canonical example for autonomous controls that necessitate high-throughput diagnostics paired with streaming computational pipelines capable of single-shot analysis with extremely low latency. We present the deterministic characterization with an integrated parallelizable hybrid resolver architecture, a hybrid machine learning framework designed for fast, accurate analysis of XFEL diagnostics using angular streaking-based sinogram images. This architecture integrates convolutional neural networks and bidirectional long short-term memory models to denoise input, identify x-ray sub-spike features, and extract sub-spike relative delays with sub-30 attosecond temporal resolution. Deployed on low-latency hardware, it achieves over 10 kHz throughput with 168.3 μs inference latency, indicating scalability to 14 kHz with field-programmable gate array integration. By transforming regression tasks into classification problems and leveraging optimized error encoding, we achieve high precision with low-latency performance that is critical for real-time streaming event selection and experimental control feedback signals. This represents a key development in real-time control pipelines for next-generation autonomous science, generally, and high repetition-rate x-ray experiments in particular.

Accelerator Physics (physics.acc-ph)↗

Catalytic resonance theory for parametric uncertainty of programmable catalysis

Microkinetic models are useful tools for screening catalytic materials; however, errors in their input parameters can lead to significant uncertainty in model predictions of catalyst performance. Here, in this work, we investigate the impact of linear scaling and Brønsted-Evans-Polanyi relation parametric uncertainty on microkinetic predictions of programmable-catalyst performance. Two case studies are considered: a generic A-to-B prototype reaction and the oxygen evolution reaction (OER). The results show that error-unaware models can accurately predict trends and, for the prototype reaction, values of optimal waveform parameters. The specific model parameters driving output uncertainty are identified via variance-based global sensitivity analysis. However, predictions of dynamic rate enhancement can decrease when uncertainty is propagated into the models. In both cases, we identify operating conditions where the programmable catalyst achieves a rate enhancement of at least one order of magnitude despite parametric uncertainty in the model, supporting programmable catalysis as a viable strategy for exceeding the Sabatier limit.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Modeling injection-induced fault slip using long short-term memory networks

Stress changes due to changes in fluid pressure and temperature in a faulted formation may lead to the opening/shearing of the fault. This can be due to subsurface (geo)engineering activities such as fluid injections and geologic disposal of nuclear waste. Such activities are expected to rise in the future making it necessary to assess their short- and long-term safety. Here, a new machine learning (ML) approach to model pore pressure and fault displacements in response to high-pressure fluid injection cycles is developed. The focus is on fault behavior near the injection borehole. To capture the temporal dependencies in the data, long short-term memory (LSTM) networks are utilized. To prevent error accumulation within the forecast window, four critical measures to train a robust LSTM model for predicting fault response are highlighted: (i) setting an appropriate value of LSTM lag, (ii) calibrating the LSTM cell dimension, (iii) learning rate reduction during weight optimization, and (iv) not adopting an independent injection cycle as a validation set. Several numerical experiments were conducted, which demonstrated that the ML model can capture peaks in pressure and associated fault displacement that accompany an increase in fluid injection. The model also captured the decay in pressure and displacement during the injection shut-in period. Further, the ability of an ML model to highlight key changes in fault hydromechanical activation processes was investigated, which shows that ML can be used to monitor risk of fault activation and leakage during high pressure fluid injections.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Deterministic High-Fidelity Neutronics Simulation of Pebble Bed Reactors Using Pebble Tracking Transport

The pebble tracking transport (PTT) algorithm offers a high-fidelity deterministic approach for neutron transport for pebble bed reactors (PBRs). This approach requires the mesh for the active-core region to consist exclusively of tetrahedral elements, where each node in the pebble-packing region represents a pebble centroid. This paper investigates the application of PTT for full-scale PBRs, considering both the isothermal and the temperature-dependent core conditions. Macroscopic cross sections are generated using Serpent 2 full-core eigenvalue simulations where pebbles are grouped into disjoint subsets using machine learning. To minimize the need for individual cross-section sets for each pebble in the core, K-means clustering is used to group pebbles by temperature and neutronic environment parameters. Here, we compare the multiplication factor and power rate distributions between PTT simulations using the Griffin reactor physics software and reference solutions from Serpent 2. Our analysis shows that a full-core, high-fidelity PTT calculation produces accurate results with minimal local (pebblewise) errors. Additionally, timing results indicate that PTT simulations converge rapidly on modern supercomputing platforms.

Griffin↗