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The Economics of NASA Mission Cost Reserves

Increases in NASA mission costs are well-noted but not well-understood, and there is little evidence that they are decreasing in frequency or amount over time. The need to control spending has led to analysis of the causes and magnitude of historical mission overruns, and many program control efforts are being implemented to attempt to prevent or mitigate the problem (NPR 7120). However, cost overruns have not abated, and while some direct causes of increased spending may be obvious (requirements creep, launch delays, directed changes, etc.), the underlying impetus to spend past the original budget may be more subtle. Gaining better insight into the causes of cost overruns will help NASA and its contracting organizations to avoid .them. This paper hypothesizes that one cause of NASA mission cost overruns is that the availability of reserves gives project team members an incentive to make decisions and behave in ways that increase costs. We theorize that the presence of reserves is a contributing factor to cost overruns because it causes organizations to use their funds less efficiently or to control spending less effectively. We draw a comparison to the insurance industry concept of moral hazard, the phenomenon that the presence of insurance causes insureds to have more frequent and higher insurance losses, and we attempt to apply actuarial techniques to quantifY the increase in the expected cost of a mission due to the availability of reserves. We create a theoretical model of reserve spending motivation by defining a variable ReserveSpending as a function of total reserves. This function has a positive slope; for every dollar of reserves available, there is a positive probability of spending it. Finally, the function should be concave down; the probability of spending each incremental dollar of reserves decreases progressively. We test the model against available NASA CADRe data by examining missions with reserve dollars initially available and testing whether they are more likely to spend those dollars, and whether larger levels of reserves lead to higher cost overruns. Finally, we address the question of how to prevent reserves from increasing mission spending without increasing cost risk to projects budgeted without any reserves. Is there a "sweet spot"? How can we derive the maximum benefit associated with risk reduction from reserves while minimizing the effects of reserve spending motivation?

Whitley, Sally↗

Shuttle Propulsion System Major Events and the Final 22 Flights

Numerous lessons have been documented from the Space Shuttle Propulsion elements. Major events include loss of the Solid Rocket Boosters (SRB's) on STS-4 and shutdown of a Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) during ascent on STS-51F. On STS-112 only half the pyrotechnics fired during release of the vehicle from the launch pad, a testament for redundancy. STS-91 exhibited freezing of a main combustion chamber pressure measurement and on STS-93 nozzle tube ruptures necessitated a low liquid level oxygen cut off of the main engines. A number of on pad aborts were experienced during the early program resulting in delays. And the two accidents, STS-51L and STS-107, had unique heritage in history from early program decisions and vehicle configuration. Following STS-51L significant resources were invested in developing fundamental physical understanding of solid rocket motor environments and material system behavior. And following STS-107, the risk of ascent debris was better characterized and controlled. Situational awareness during all mission phases improved, and the management team instituted effective risk assessment practices. The last 22 flights of the Space Shuttle, following the Columbia accident, were characterized by remarkable improvement in safety and reliability. Numerous problems were solved in addition to reduction of the ascent debris hazard. The Shuttle system, though not as operable as envisioned in the 1970's, successfully assembled the International Space Station (ISS). By the end of the program, the remarkable Space Shuttle Propulsion system achieved very high performance, was largely reusable, exhibited high reliability, and was a heavy lift earth to orbit propulsion system. During the program a number of project management and engineering processes were implemented and improved. Technical performance, schedule accountability, cost control, and risk management were effectively managed and implemented. Award fee contracting was implemented to provide performance incentives. The Certification of Flight Readiness and Mission Management processes became very effective. A key to the success of the propulsion element projects was related to relationships between the MSFC project office and support organizations with their counterpart contractor organizations. The teams worked diligently to understand and satisfy requirements and achieve mission success.

Owen, James W.↗

Green Planet Architecture - A Methodology for Self-Sustainable Distributed Renewable Energy Ecosystems

Our planet has been endowed with a host of natural mechanisms to keep the environment and climate in balance. Humans are now facing the need to restore this balance that has been upset in the past years because of a growing population and resource demands. To steer dependency away from freshwater crops and decrease environmental damage from humanity s fuel and energy demands, it is necessary to take advantage of the natural adaptive biomass resources that are already in place. Using methods of Green Planet Architecture, based on compilations of current research and procedures, could lead to new forms of energy and fueling as well as new sources for food and feed. Green Planet Architecture involves climatic adaptive biomass; geospatial intelligence; agri- and aqua-culture life cycles; and soil, wetland, and shoreline restoration. Plants such as Salicornia, seashore mallow, castor, mangroves, and perhaps Moringa can be modified (natural, model-assisted, or genetically modified) to thrive in salt-water and brackish water or otherwise not arable conditions, making them potentially new crops that will not displace traditional farming. These fueling sources also have potential to be used in other rapid-growth industries, such as the aviation industry, that have incentive to move towards more sustainable fuel supplies. This paper highlights an example of how synergistic development of biomass resources and geospatial intelligence high-performance computing capabilities can be focused to resolve potential drought-famine problems. These techniques, provide a basis for future e-science-based discovery (and access) through technology that can be expanded to support global societal applications.

Saxena, Nikita T.↗

The Economics of NASA Mission Cost Reserves

Increases in NASA mission costs have led to analysis of the causes and magnitude of historical mission overruns as well as mitigation and prevention attempts. This paper hypothesizes that one cause is that the availability of reserves may reduce incentives to control costs. We draw a comparison to the insurance concept of moral hazard, and we use actuarial techniques to better understand the increase in mission costs due to the availability of reserves. NASA's CADRe database provided the data against which we tested our hypothesis and discovered that there is correlation between the amount of available reserves and project overruns, particularly for mission hardware cost increases. We address the question of how to prevent reserves from increasing mission spending without increasing cost risk to projects.

Whitley, Sally↗

Understanding Climate Policy Data Needs. NASA Carbon Monitoring System Briefing: Characterizing Flux Uncertainty, Washington D.C., 11 January 2012

Climate policy in the United States is currently guided by public-private partnerships and actions at the local and state levels. This mitigation strategy is made up of programs that focus on energy efficiency, renewable energy, agricultural practices and implementation of technologies to reduce greenhouse gases. How will policy makers know if these strategies are working, particularly at the scales at which they are being implemented? The NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) will provide information on carbon dioxide fluxes derived from observations of earth's land, ocean and atmosphere used in state of the art models describing their interactions. This new modeling system could be used to assess the impact of specific policy interventions on CO2 reductions, enabling an iterative, results-oriented policy process. In January of 2012, the CMS team held a meeting with carbon policy and decision makers in Washington DC to describe the developing modeling system to policy makers. The NASA CMS will develop pilot studies to provide information across a range of spatial scales, consider carbon storage in biomass, and improve measures of the atmospheric distribution of carbon dioxide. The pilot involves multiple institutions (four NASA centers as well as several universities) and over 20 scientists in its work. This pilot study will generate CO2 flux maps for two years using observational constraints in NASA's state-of -the-art models. Bottom-up surface flux estimates will be computed using data-constrained land and ocean models; comparison of the different techniques will provide some knowledge of uncertainty in these estimates. Ensembles of atmospheric carbon distributions will be computed using an atmospheric general circulation model (GEOS-5), with perturbations to the surface fluxes and to transport. Top-down flux estimates will be computed from observed atmospheric CO2 distributions (ACOS/GOSAT retrievals) alongside the forward-model fields, in conjunction with an inverse approach based on the CO2 model of GEOS ]Chem. The forward model ensembles will be used to build understanding of relationships among surface flux perturbations, transport uncertainty and atmospheric carbon concentration. This will help construct uncertainty estimates and information on the true spatial resolution of the top-down flux calculations. The relationship between the top-down and bottom-up flux distributions will be documented. Because the goal of NASA CMS is to be policy relevant, the scientists involved in the flux modeling pilot need to understand and be focused on the needs of the climate policy and decision making community. If policy makers are to use CMS products, they must be aware of the modeling effort and begin to design policies that can be evaluated with information. Improving estimates of carbon sequestered in forests, for example, will require information on the spatial variability of forest biomass that is far more explicit than is presently possible using only ground observations. Carbon mitigation policies being implemented by cities around the United States could be designed with the CMS data in mind, enabling sequential evaluation and subsequent improvements in incentives, structures and programs. The success of climate mitigation programs being implemented in the United States today will hang on the depth of the relationship between scientists and their policy and decision making counterparts. Ensuring that there is two-way communication between data providers and users is important for the success both of the policies and the scientific products meant to support them..

Brown, Molly E.↗

Numerical Predictions of Sonic Boom Signatures for a Straight Line Segmented Leading Edge Model

A sonic boom wind tunnel test was conducted on a straight-line segmented leading edge (SLSLE) model in the NASA Langley 4- by 4- Foot Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel (UPWT). The purpose of the test was to determine whether accurate sonic boom measurements could be obtained while continuously moving the SLSLE model past a conical pressure probe. Sonic boom signatures were also obtained using the conventional move-pause data acquisition method for comparison. The continuous data acquisition approach allows for accurate signatures approximately 15 times faster than a move-pause technique. These successful results provide an incentive for future testing with greatly increased efficiency using the continuous model translation technique with the single probe to measure sonic boom signatures. Two widely used NASA codes, USM3D (Navier-Stokes) and CART3D-AERO (Euler, adjoint-based adaptive mesh), were used to compute off-body sonic boom pressure signatures of the SLSLE model at several different altitudes below the model at Mach 2.0. The computed pressure signatures compared well with wind tunnel data. The effect of the different altitude for signature extraction was evaluated by extrapolating the near field signatures to the ground and comparing pressure signatures and sonic boom loudness levels.

Elmiligui, Alaa A.↗

Report on the 2011 and 2012 NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) / Alaska State Cargo Airship Workshops

This presentation will summarize the Cargo Airships for Northern Operations workshop that was held August 24-25, 2011. This workshop co-sponsored by NASA ARC and the Alaska State Department of Transportation was initiated by interest from Alaska Lt. Governor Mead Treadwell for assistance in investigating the potential benefits of proposed cargo airships for the Alaskan economy and societal needs. The workshop provided a brief background on the technology and operational aspects of conventional airships and hybrids followed by presentations on issues affecting cargo airship operations such as weather management, insurance, regulations, crew duty/rest rules, and available support infrastructures. Speakers representing potential cargo airship users from Alaskan State and commercial organizations presented the needs they felt could be met by cargo airship services. Presenters from Canadian private and military interests also detailed applications and missions that cargo airships could provide to remote regions of Canada. Cost drivers of cargo airship operations were also addressed and tools for modeling and analyzing operational factors and costs affecting cargo airship operations were discussed. Four breakout sessions were held which allowed workshop participants to contribute inputs to four topic areas: Business Approaches and Strategies (financing incentives public/private partnerships etc) for Airship Development and Operation, Design, Development, Production Challenges, and Possible Solutions, Regulatory, Certification, Legal, and Insurance Issues, and Operational Issues, Customer Requirements, and Airship Requirements. A follow on to the 2011 cargo airship workshop is being planned for July 31 August 2, 2012. A status update on this second workshop will also be presented.

Hochstettler, Ronald↗

Status of Commercial Programs at NASA

NASA's strategy is two-fold: (1) Use Space Act Agreements to support the development of commercial crew transportation capabilities. (2) Use FAR-based contracts for the certification of commercially developed capabilities and for the procurement of crew transportation services to and from the ISS to meet NASA requirements. Focus is on reducing the risk and uncertainties of the development environment and on the incentives provided through competition by separating the design and early development content from the longer-term CTS Certification activities. CCP expects to develop, demonstrate, and certify U.S. commercial crew space transportation capabilities that meet ISS crew transportation needs by the end of FY 2017.

Groen, Frank↗

"Green Planet Architecture"-A Methodology for Self-Sustainable Distributed Renewable Energy Ecosystems

This planet has been endowed with a host of natural mechanisms to keep the environment and climate in balance. Humans are now facing the need to restore this balance that has been upset in the past years because of a growing population and resource demands. To steer dependency away from freshwater crops and decrease environmental damage from humanity s fuel and energy demands, it is necessary to take advantage of the natural adaptive biomass resources that are already in place. Using methods of "Green Planet Architecture," based on compilations of current research and procedures, could lead to new forms of energy and fueling as well as new sources for food and feed. Green Planet Architecture involves climatic adaptive biomass; geospatial intelligence; agri- and aqua-culture life cycles; and soil, wetland, and shoreline restoration. Plants such as Salicornia, seashore mallow, castor, mangroves, and perhaps Moringa can be modified (naturally, model-assisted, or genetically) to thrive in salt water and brackish water or otherwise not arable conditions, making them potentially new crops that will not displace traditional farming. These fueling sources also have potential to be used in other rapid-growth industries, such as the aviation industry, that have incentive to move towards more sustainable fuel supplies. This report highlights an example of how synergistic development of biomass resources and geospatial intelligence high-performance computing capabilities can be focused to resolve potential drought-famine problems. These techniques provide a basis for future e-science-based discovery (and access) through technology that can be expanded to support global societal applications.

Saxena, Nikita T.↗

Proof-of-Concept of a Networked Validation Environment for Distributed Air/Ground NextGen Concepts

The National Airspace System (NAS) must be improved to increase capacity, reduce flight delays, and minimize environmental impacts of air travel. NASA has been tasked with aiding the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in NAS modernization. Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) is an enabling technology that is fundamental to realization of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). Despite the 2020 FAA mandate requiring ADS-B Out equipage, airspace users are lacking incentives to equip with the requisite ADS-B avionics. A need exists to validate in flight tests advanced concepts of operation (ConOps) that rely on ADS-B and other data links without requiring costly equipage. A potential solution is presented in this paper. It is possible to emulate future data link capabilities using the existing in-flight Internet and reduced-cost test equipment. To establish proof-of-concept, a high-fidelity traffic operations simulation was modified to include a module that simulated Internet transmission of ADS-B messages. An advanced NASA ConOp, Flight Deck Interval Management (FIM), was used to evaluate technical feasibility. A preliminary assessment of the effects of latency and dropout rate on FIM was performed. Flight hardware that would be used by proposed test environment was connected to the simulation so that data transfer from aircraft systems to test equipment could be verified. The results indicate that the FIM ConOp, and therefore, many other advanced ConOps with equal or lesser response characteristics and data requirements, can be evaluated in flight using the proposed concept.

Grisham, James↗

Agent Based Modeling of Air Carrier Behavior for Evaluation of Technology Equipage and Adoption

As part of ongoing research, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and LMI developed a research framework to assist policymakers in identifying impacts on the U.S. air transportation system (ATS) of potential policies and technology related to the implementation of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). This framework, called the Air Transportation System Evolutionary Simulation (ATS-EVOS), integrates multiple models into a single process flow to best simulate responses by U.S. commercial airlines and other ATS stakeholders to NextGen-related policies, and in turn, how those responses impact the ATS. Development of this framework required NASA and LMI to create an agent-based model of airline and passenger behavior. This Airline Evolutionary Simulation (AIRLINE-EVOS) models airline decisions about tactical airfare and schedule adjustments, and strategic decisions related to fleet assignments, market prices, and equipage. AIRLINE-EVOS models its own heterogeneous population of passenger agents that interact with airlines; this interaction allows the model to simulate the cycle of action-reaction as airlines compete with each other and engage passengers. We validated a baseline configuration of AIRLINE-EVOS against Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B) data and subject matter expert opinion, and we verified the ATS-EVOS framework and agent behavior logic through scenario-based experiments. These experiments demonstrated AIRLINE-EVOS's capabilities in responding to an input price shock in fuel prices, and to equipage challenges in a series of analyses based on potential incentive policies for best equipped best served, optimal-wind routing, and traffic management initiative exemption concepts..

Horio, Brant M.↗

MDO and Cross-Disciplinary Practice in R&D: A Portrait of Principles and Current Practice

For several decades, Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO) has served an important role in aerospace engineering by incorporating physics based disciplinary models into integrated system or sub-system models for use in research, development, (R&D) and design. This paper examines MDO's role in facilitating the integration of the researchers from different single disciplines during R&D and early design of large-scale complex engineered systems (LaCES) such as aerospace systems. The findings in this paper are summarized from a larger study on interdisciplinary practices and perspectives that included considerable empirical data from surveys, interviews, and ethnography. The synthesized findings were derived by integrating the data with theories from organization science and engineering. The over-arching finding is that issues related to cognition, organization, and social interrelations mostly dominate interactions across disciplines. Engineering issues, such as the integration of hardware or physics-based models, are not as significant. Correspondingly, the data showed that MDO is not the primary integrator of researchers working across disciplines during R&D and early design of LaCES. Cognitive focus such as analysis versus design, organizational challenges such as incentives, and social opportunities such as personal networks often drove the human interactive practices among researchers from different disciplines. Facilitation of the inherent confusion, argument, and learning in crossdisciplinary research was identified as one of several needed elements of enabling successful research across disciplines.

Rivas McGowan, Anna-Maria↗

Enabling the Capture and Sharing of NASA Technical Expertise Through Communities of Practice

Historically, engineers at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) had few opportunities or incentives to share their technical expertise across the Agency. Its center- and project- focused culture often meant that knowledge never left organizational and geographic boundaries. With increasingly complex missions, the closeout of the Shuttle Program, and a new generation entering the workforce, developing a knowledge sharing culture became critical. To address this need, the Office of the Chief Engineer established communities of practice on the NASA Engineering Network. These communities were strategically aligned with NASA's core competencies in such disciplines as avionics, flight mechanics, life support, propulsion, structures, loads and dynamics, human factors, and guidance, navigation, and control. This paper describes the process used to identify and develop communities, from establishing simple websites that compiled discipline-specific resources to fostering a knowledge-sharing environment through collaborative and interactive technologies. It includes qualitative evidence of improved availability and transfer of knowledge. It focuses on pivotal capabilities that increased knowledge exchange such as a custom-made Ask An Expert system, community contact lists, publication of key resources, and submission forms that allowed any user to propose content for the sites. It discusses the peer relationships that developed through the communities and the leadership and infrastructure that made them possible.

Topousis, Daria E.↗

Underestimation of Project Costs

Large projects almost always exceed their budgets. Estimating cost is difficult and estimated costs are usually too low. Three different reasons are suggested: bad luck, overoptimism, and deliberate underestimation. Project management can usually point to project difficulty and complexity, technical uncertainty, stakeholder conflicts, scope changes, unforeseen events, and other not really unpredictable bad luck. Project planning is usually over-optimistic, so the likelihood and impact of bad luck is systematically underestimated. Project plans reflect optimism and hope for success in a supposedly unique new effort rather than rational expectations based on historical data. Past project problems are claimed to be irrelevant because "This time it's different." Some bad luck is inevitable and reasonable optimism is understandable, but deliberate deception must be condemned. In a competitive environment, project planners and advocates often deliberately underestimate costs to help gain project approval and funding. Project benefits, cost savings, and probability of success are exaggerated and key risks ignored. Project advocates have incentives to distort information and conceal difficulties from project approvers. One naively suggested cure is more openness, honesty, and group adherence to shared overall goals. A more realistic alternative is threatening overrun projects with cancellation. Neither approach seems to solve the problem. A better method to avoid the delusions of over-optimism and the deceptions of biased advocacy is to base the project cost estimate on the actual costs of a large group of similar projects. Over optimism and deception can continue beyond the planning phase and into project execution. Hard milestones based on verified tests and demonstrations can provide a reality check.

Cost estimation↗

Holiday in Lights: Tracking Cultural Patterns in Demand for Energy Services

Successful climate change mitigation will involve not only technological innovation, but also innovation in how we understand the societal and individual behaviors that shape the demand for energy services. Traditionally, individual energy behaviors have been described as a function of utility optimization and behavioral economics, with price restructuring as the dominant policy lever. Previous research at the macro-level has identified economic activity, power generation and technology, and economic role as significant factors that shape energy use. However, most demand models lack basic contextual information on how dominant social phenomenon, the changing demographics of cities, and the sociocultural setting within which people operate, affect energy decisions and use patterns. Here we use high-quality Suomi-NPP VIIRS nighttime environmental products to: (1) observe aggregate human behavior through variations in energy service demand patterns during the Christmas and New Year's season and the Holy Month of Ramadan and (2) demonstrate that patterns in energy behaviors closely track sociocultural boundaries at the country, city, and district level. These findings indicate that energy decision making and demand is a sociocultural process as well as an economic process, often involving a combination of individual price-based incentives and societal-level factors. While nighttime satellite imagery has been used to map regional energy infrastructure distribution, tracking daily dynamic lighting demand at three major scales of urbanization is novel. This methodology can enrich research on the relative importance of drivers of energy demand and conservation behaviors at fine scales. Our initial results demonstrate the importance of seating energy demand frameworks in a social context.

VIIRS night sky↗

Centennial Challenges Program

NASA's Centennial Challenges Program was initiated in 2005 to directly engage the public in the process of advanced technology development. The program offers incentive prizes to generate revolutionary solutions to problems of interest to NASA and the nation. The program seeks innovations from diverse and nontraditional sources. Competitors are not supported by government funding and awards are only made to successful teams when the challenges are met. In keeping with the spirit of the Wright Brothers and other American innovators, the Centennial Challenge prizes are offered to independent inventors including small businesses, student groups, and individuals. These independent inventors are sought to generate innovative solutions for technical problems of interest to NASA and the nation and to provide them with the opportunity to stimulate or create new business ventures.

Ortega, Sam↗

Ballistic Puncture Self-Healing Polymeric Materials

Space exploration launch costs on the order of $10,000 per pound provide an incentive to seek ways to reduce structural mass while maintaining structural function to assure safety and reliability. Damage-tolerant structural systems provide a route to avoiding weight penalty while enhancing vehicle safety and reliability. Self-healing polymers capable of spontaneous puncture repair show promise to mitigate potentially catastrophic damage from events such as micrometeoroid penetration. Effective self-repair requires these materials to quickly heal following projectile penetration while retaining some structural function during the healing processes. Although there are materials known to possess this capability, they are typically not considered for structural applications. Current efforts use inexpensive experimental methods to inflict damage, after which analytical procedures are identified to verify that function is restored. Two candidate self-healing polymer materials for structural engineering systems are used to test these experimental methods.

Gordon, Keith L.↗

Landsat at 45: How it Changed the Way We See the Earth

On October 24, 1946, more than 10 years before the launch of the first artificial satellite Sputnik, scientists at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico placed a camera on top of a captured German V-2 ballistic missile. As the rocket flew to an altitude of about 65 miles - just above the generally recognized border of outer space - the 35-millimeter motion picture camera snapped a frame every one and a half seconds. Minutes later, the missile came crashing back down and slammed into the ground at more than 340 mph, but the film survived and gave us our first glimpse of Earth from space. Earth Resources Technology Satellite aka Landsat It was images like those first grainy black and white pictures and later those taken by America's first astronauts in the 1960's that inspired the development of the Earth Resources Technology Satellite (ERTS). From the unique vantage point of space, we could now observe Earth using a variety of different instruments to monitor changes over time. The ERTS-1 satellite, wisely renamed Landsat-1, was launched aboard a Delta rocket on July 23, 1972, into a Sun-synchronous polar orbit at an altitude of about 560 miles. In this unique orbit, Landsat could observe the same point on the Earth every 18 days, always with the same solar illumination, allowing for precise monitoring of changes on the ground over time. Landsat-1, derived from the highly successful Nimbus weather satellites, carried two instruments that allowed it to take images not only in visible light but also in infrared, well-suited to track changes in vegetation over time. Designed to last only one year, Landsat-1 actually operated for nearly three years, by which time it had been joined in space by Landsat-2, a near identical copy of the original. Since then, ever more sophisticated instruments were flown aboard Landsat-3 through -8, with Landsat-9 planned for launch in 2020, acquiring millions of images of Earth over more than four decades. At first, images from Landsat were processed by NASA and hardcopies sold to users for a fee, a somewhat tedious process. Since 2008, images have been made available to all interested users by the US Geological Survey (USGS) at no cost via the Internet in near real time. So, how can Landsat help? In short, Landsat looks. And looks. And proves Yogi right. Space-based images from Landsat and other similar satellites offer a unique and critical capability to observe land use over time by providing repetitive observations of the Earth otherwise unavailable. The data provided by the images can be used by scientists and politicians to inform wise decisions in areas such as agriculture, climate, ecosystems and biodiversity, energy, forest management, human health, fire, natural disasters, urban growth and water management. This overview article doesn't allow for examples from each of these disciplines, but details can be found at the following website: https://landsat.gsfc.nasa.gov/how_landsat_helps/. One third of the US economy is influenced by climate, weather and natural hazards, providing strong economic incentives to sustain a healthy space-based Earth observation program. One example, however, may be illustrative of how Landsat and other space-based observations can be helpful in monitoring and documenting some effects of global climate change. It had been noted since the 1970's that permafrost in subarctic areas like Siberia was melting at an accelerating rate. It also became apparent that this led to the formation of hundreds of melt lakes and the liberation of large quantities of methane, a gas that in the short-term has more potent greenhouse effects than carbon dioxide. The methane turned the water in these lakes blue, making them easy to track over time by satellite. Additionally, the newly released methane has been carbon dated to tens of thousands of years ago, meaning that it had remained frozen since the last Ice Age and therefore hadn't been accounted for in models of the Earth's overall carbon balance. Release of sufficient methane by an increasingly warming climate could actually cause a positive feedback loop in global warming, melting more permafrost and releasing yet more methane. Further monitoring by Landsat and other platforms will reveal whether this process is reversible or whether we've passed the tipping point. In addition to the highly successful Landsat series of satellites, NASA and other agencies such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operate a fleet of other Earth observing platforms, many with more specific research goals such as monitoring sea ice levels or atmospheric carbon content. Several instruments aboard the International Space Station also contribute to this overall effort to better understand short- and long-term changes to the Earth. Many of these missions are guided by the 2009 Decadal Survey published by the National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences. Europe, Russia and China all see the value of space-based Earth observation by deploying their own fleet of satellites.

Uri, John↗