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At least 181 records · Page 10

The simultaneous removal of technetium and iodine from Hanford tank waste

The simultaneous removal of radionuclides technetium-99 and iodine-129 from an actual decontaminated Hanford tank waste sample (a mixture of decontaminated waste from tanks 241-AP-105 and 241-AP-107) was demonstrated for the first time in this work. A series of commercially available ion exchange resins were evaluated in batch contact tests in the tank waste, and all showed removal of both Tc and I. The highest Tc removal was observed for Purolite A530e while the highest iodine removal was observed for ResinTech SIR-110-MP. Batch tests in simulated tank waste with these two resins showed that the SIR-110-HP-MP had consistently higher K d for both pertechnetate and iodide and much higher K d than previous works on Tc removal from Hanford waste. As such, the SIR-110-MP was evaluated in a dual -column (lead/lag) test processing 5.2L of the tank waste mixture showing 60% breakthrough of Tc on the lead column and no significant breakthrough on the lag after 625 bed volumes (BV, 6 mL size) while significant iodine breakthrough (>50%) occurred after 28 BV. The limited iodine uptake was attributed to the column conditions generating mass transfer limitations. A fraction of the Tc and I was not captured by the resin (<10%) in either the batch tests or column tests. The iodine fraction was identified to be an iodide, likely organo-iodide. The fraction of the Tc was identified as a non-pertechnetate species, which is the first time non-pertechnetate has been identified in AP-105 and AP-107 tanks, although the exact species is still unknown.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Understanding the microstructural evolution of hypersaline cemented paste backfill with low-field NMR relaxation

Highlights: • Microstructural evolution of CPB, prepared with tap and hypersaline water, is monitored using low-field NMR relaxometry. • T{sub 1} and T{sub 2} NMR relaxation measurements compared with mechanical strength via UCS tests • Hypersaline mixing water results in slower structural evolution and lower mechanical strength. Cemented paste backfill (CPB) comprising mineral tailings, binders and mixing water is an important potential support material in the mining industry. As the mechanical properties of CPB are significantly influenced by its microstructural characteristics the development of measurement tools to better understand its pore structure evolution is important for its increased utilisation. This study reports the application of low-field nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) relaxation time measurements to characterise the microstructural evolution of CPB materials over 56 days of hydration, contrasting common tap water and hypersaline water (~22 wt% salt) as mixing water. Distinct NMR relaxation time populations were evidenced within each CPB sample, revealing the presence of both capillary (T{sub 1,2} ≈ 10 ms) and gel pore water (T{sub 1,2} ≈ 300–500 μs), with time-dependent relaxation measurements facilitating characterisation of capillary pore structure evolution over the hydration period assessed. Hypersaline samples demonstrated a time-lag in this measured capillary pore evolution, relative to those hydrated with tap water, while pore structure evolution rates were observed to increase with increased CPB binder content. Further, both T{sub 1} and T{sub 2} NMR relaxation times were found to correlate with the uniaxial compressive strength of the CPB materials investigated, facilitating the formulation of a predictive correlation function between NMR relaxation characteristics and mechanical properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Effect of a micro-scale dislocation pileup on the atomic-scale multi-variant phase transformation and twinning

In this paper, we perform concurrent atomistic–continuum (CAC) simulations to assess the contribution of the internal stress induced by the microscale dislocation pileup at an atomically structured interface to the atomic-scale phase transformations (PTs), reverse PTs, and twinning. The main novelty of this work is to unify the atomistic description of the interface and the coarse-grained (CG) description of the lagging dislocations away from the interface within one single framework. Our major findings are: (a) the interface dynamically responds to a pileup by forming steps/ledges, the height of which is proportional to the number of dislocations arriving at the interface; (b) the pileup-induced internal stress concentration profile follows neither the classical Eshelby model nor the super-dislocation model alone, but a combination of them; (c) when the pre-sheared sample is compressed, a direct square-to-hexagonal PT occurs ahead of the pileup tip and eventually grows into a wedge shape. The two variants of the hexagonal phases form a twin with respect to each other; (d) upon a further increase of the loading, part of the newly formed hexagonal phase transforms back to the square phase. The square product phase resulting from this reverse PT forms a twin with respect to the initial square phase. All phase boundaries (PBs) and twin boundaries (TBs) are stationary and correspond to zero thermodynamic Eshelby driving forces; and (e) the microscale dislocation pileup-induced internal shear stress and the structural change at the atomic-scale interface reduces the stress required for initiating a PT by a factor of 5.5, comparing with that in the sample containing no dislocations. This work is the first characterization of the behavior of PTs/twinning resulting from the reaction between a microscale dislocation slip and an atomically structured interface. In conclusion, the gained knowledge will advance our understanding of how the multi-phase material behaves in many complex physical processes, such as the synthesis of multi-phase high-entropy alloys or superhard ceramics under high-pressure torsion, deep mantle earthquakes in geophysics, and so on, which all involve dislocation slip, PTs, twinning, and their interactions across from the atomistic to the microscale and beyond.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Thermal and mechanical performance of gypsum composites containing fly ash cenosphere encapsulated phase change materials

Utilizing phase change materials (PCMs) within construction materials improves the thermal energy storage capabilities in the built environment. Notably, integrating PCMs into drywalls presents a promising avenue to reduce building energy use. However, incorporating PCMs into drywalls poses challenges, particularly reduced mechanical properties and workability limitations as it can adversely affect the hardening and cohesiveness of gypsum composites. To address these challenges, this study explores a novel strategy to incorporate PCMs into gypsum composites through fly ash cenosphere-encapsulated PCM, namely CenoPCM, aiming to enhance the mechanical properties and thermal conductivity over existing commercial counterparts. An experimental program was conducted to study the impact of the inclusion of CenoPCM on the mechanical and thermal performance of gypsum composites, and the results were compared to those of commercially available polymerencapsulated PCM benchmark (Micronal). The findings highlighted that PCM-charged samples exhibited up to 95.90 J/g (CenoPCM) of latent heat with 70 % CenoPCM loading. The results of mechanical tests also showed that CenoPCM outperformed its polymer-encapsulated counterpart, achieving 55 % higher mechanical strength on average. Here, this improvement is attributed to the rigid shell of fly ash cenosphere (FAC) serving as a PCM carrier, providing a skeleton-like structure to gypsum composites for higher load-bearing capacity. Additionally, hotbox tests demonstrated that the CenoPCM-charged wall panels yielded a 20 % higher thermal conductivity and a 22 % increased time lag compared to Micronal PCM-charged panels, indicating its potential to shift the peak load in buildings.

Ceno PCM↗

Combinatorial transcription factor binding encodes cis -regulatory wiring of mouse forebrain GABAergic neurogenesis

Transcription factors (TFs) bind combinatorially to cis-regulatory elements, orchestrating transcriptional programs. Although studies of chromatin state and chromosomal interactions have demonstrated dynamic neurodevelopmental cis-regulatory landscapes, parallel understanding of TF interactions lags. To elucidate combinatorial TF binding driving mouse basal ganglia development, we integrated chromatin immunoprecipitation sequencing (ChIP-seq) for twelve TFs, H3K4me3-associated enhancer-promoter interactions, chromatin and gene expression data, and functional enhancer assays. We identified sets of putative regulatory elements with shared TF binding (TF-pRE modules) that orchestrate distinct processes of GABAergic neurogenesis and suppress other cell fates. The majority of pREs were bound by one or two TFs; however, a small proportion were extensively bound. These sequences had exceptional evolutionary conservation and motif density, complex chromosomal interactions, and activity as in vivo enhancers. Our results provide insights into the combinatorial TF-pRE interactions that activate and repress expression programs during telencephalon neurogenesis and demonstrate the value of TF binding toward modeling developmental transcriptional wiring.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Drought-induced changes in groundwater-surface water exchange at Lake Mead area

This study focuses on the Lake Mead region in the southwestern United States, a key water reservoir serving over 25 million people and agricultural lands across several states. The area has experienced recurring anthropogenic droughts since the early 2000s. We investigate the hydrological response of the coupled surface-groundwater system to the 2020–2022 drought, one of the most severe on record. To this end, we use Sentinel-1 Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data to quantify vertical land motion caused by the elastic response of the crust to water-mass loss in the lake vicinity. Next, we apply an inverse elastic load modeling framework to quantify water loss. We further assess possible hydraulic connectivity between Lake Mead and adjacent groundwater reservoirs. We detect ground uplift of up to 8 mm/yr near the lake center, likely due to crustal rebound from reduced water-mass loading. We estimated the total water storage loss at 3.03 ± 0.25 km 3 /yr across a 3150 km 2 area surrounding Lake Mead. Groundwater accounts for approximately a third of that, being 0.94 ± 0.32 km 3 /yr. In addition, observed time lags of 6–98 days between lake and groundwater level responses, corresponding to a lateral diffusivity of 3.2–86 m 2 /s, suggest spatially variable connectivity between the lake and aquifers. These findings highlight that drought impacts propagate through the subsurface within interconnected systems, resulting in reduced buffering capacity of groundwater resources following droughts, and emphasizing the need for more integrated surface and groundwater management strategies to enhance resilience under climate and anthropogenic stressors.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Mercury methylation potential and bioavailability in the sediments of two distinct aquatic systems

Here, this study explored mercury (Hg) methylation potential in two distinct aquatic systems. Fourmile Creek (FMC) was historically polluted with Hg effluents from groundwater as it is a typical gaining stream, where organic matter and microorganisms in streambed are continuously winnowed. The H02 constructed wetland only receives atmospheric Hg and is rich in organic matter and microorganisms. Both systems receive Hg from atmospheric deposition now. Surface sediments were collected from FMC and H02, spiked with inorganic Hg, and cultivated in an anaerobic chamber to stimulate microbial Hg methylation reactions. Total mercury (THg) and methylmercury (MeHg) concentrations were measured at each spiking stage. Mercury methylation potential (MMP, %MeHg in THg) and Hg bioavailability were assessed with the deployment of diffusive gradients in thin films (DGTs). During the methylation process and at the same incubation stage, FMC sediment showed faster increasing rates of %MeHg and higher MeHg concentrations than H02, demonstrating a stronger MMP in the FMC sediment. Similarly, higher Hg bioavailability was observed in FMC sediment compared to the H02 as indicated by DGT-Hg concentrations. In conclusion, the H02 wetland with high levels of organic matter and microorganisms presented low MMP. But the Fourmile Creek as a gaining stream and a historical site of Hg pollution showed strong MMP and high Hg bioavailability. A related study on microbial community activities characterized the microorganisms between FMC and H02, which is attributed to be the main reason for their different methylation capabilities. Our study further brought up the considerations on remediated sites from Hg contamination: Hg bioaccumulation and biomagnification can still be elevated and higher than the surrounding environment due to lagged changes in microbial community structures. This study supported the sustainable ecological modifications of legacy Hg contamination and raised the necessity of long-term monitoring actions even after executing a remediation plan.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A systematic literature review on residential demand response with a focus on opportunities for low-income communities

Demand Response improves efficiency and grid stability, reducing peak load and total system costs. It can potentially contribute to other societal aspects, including mitigating climate change and improving air quality, health, stress levels, and comfort. This paper reviewed the literature on residential demand response programs in the United States, through the lens of the five energy justice principles, identifying and categorizing a set of 165 papers from 1960 to 2024. As a result, we observe significant progress in distributive justice, however, mostly focused on increasing participation rather than attending specific needs of historically marginalized communities. Concordantly, recognition and procedural justice dimensions are lagging, while cosmopolitan justice studies are scarce, underscoring a need to improve the measurement of impacts resulting from the implementation of demand response programs. Future research opportunities include the consolidation of standardized definitions and metrics, to better understand burdens and needs of diverse residential users. In terms of policy, collection and transparent access to standardized data is required as a condition to the design of flexible, customizable, transparent, and easy to navigate demand response programs. As a result, a better understanding of and engagement with customers has the potential to increase adoption rates, persistence in the program, and overall impacts for the system, households, and society.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Performance evaluation of a dynamic wall integrated with active insulation and thermal energy storage systems

Thermal energy storage systems in buildings can store cooling/heating energy during non-peak load hours or when renewable energy sources are available for later use when demanded. Using the building envelope as a thermal battery can help to shave the peak load, reduce the burden in electric grids, and enhance the occupant's thermal comfort. Sensible energy storage on wall systems such as thermally activated building systems can provide an active thermal storage strategy. However, most of the stored energy is used through passive means directed by the thermal lag, which can impede the on-demand release of the stored energy. Integrating active insulation systems with building thermal storage systems can increase the flexibility of charging and discharging time and duration. In this study, a wall system equipped with an active insulation system and thermally activated storage system was designed, and its performance on active cooling energy contribution was studied. The performances of energy storage (charging), release (discharging) of the thermal energy storage energy, and the active insulation system were studied separately and together as an integrated system. Results showed that the thermal properties of the thermal energy storage core material and the pipe spacing of both embedded pipes in the thermal energy storage and hydronic pipes used in the active insulation system affected the wall performance the most out of all the tested wall system parameters. During discharging, the heat flux into the wall was as high as 81.92 W/m 2 . This active insulation system's dynamic R-value varied between less than 1ft 2 •°F•h/BTU (0.18 m 2 •K/W) to 98% of the equally thick foam insulation's R-value.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Industrial battery operation and utilization in the presence of electrical load uncertainty using Bayesian decision theory

Behind the meter battery storage is becoming increasing popular in all sectors, though enthusiasm has recently lagged in the industrial sector. Even though there may be many factors contributing to this including lack of innovation, prohibitive costs, and undesirable rate structures, a difficulty arises in accounting for uncertainty of electrical load in industrial facilities while still attempting to utilize battery storage as much as possible all while trying to achieve fiscal profitability. Here this study utilizes Gaussian process regression and Bayesian decision theory to organize load data and quantify electrical load uncertainty to properly and effectively discharge industrial battery storage. The study employs a simulation model to set battery load setpoints for the span of the utility billing period according to the degree of risk aversion. This combination of economic analysis according to utility billing period and utilization of degree of risk aversion to make decisions on the uncertainty of the data has not before been applied to battery storage. The method resulted in an annual average reduction of peak demand by 3.8 % at the lowest amount of savings and lowest risk aversion. The highest risk aversion resulted in an annual average reduction of peak demand of 7.5 %. The maximum reduction of peak load in any month was 13.8 % in the month of December with a relatively high risk aversion. With a the highest amount risk aversion tested, the model reduced demand ten of the twelve months of the year.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Context matters: Natural tree mortality can lead to neighbor growth release or suppression

Where competition suppresses tree growth, mortality of adjacent trees can release the surviving individuals, leading to a growth increase. However, primary forests are complicated systems, where trees interact in both competitive and facilitative ways mediated by their size, species, and the broad ecological context in which they grow. Thus, the magnitude and even direction of growth responses to the mortality of nearby trees may vary, which has implications for our understanding of community- and ecosystem-level dynamics following mortality events. Unfortunately, although many studies focus on the impacts of light availability and general crowding on tree growth, we know relatively little about the effects of naturally occurring mortality events on the growth of neighboring trees. To address this issue, we used 40 years of data from 15 permanent forest-monitoring plots in Mt Rainier old-growth forests, comparing observed to expected radial growth of individual trees following the death of their nearest neighbor. Although we found evidence of a general growth-release response, this was not universal among all trees, with small trees in particular exhibiting growth suppression (rather than release) following neighboring tree mortality. In addition to small size, growth-suppression was more likely if the dead neighbor was the same species, consistent with facilitative effects as mediated through belowground networks. At the stand level, the average growth release after nearest neighbor mortality was greatest in low-density stands with large trees, with elevation and community composition also playing a role. Decades more monitoring could reveal how long growth release (or suppression) is sustained by individual trees following neighboring mortality events, as well as potential response lags and the role of species identity in determining whether interactions with neighbors are competitive or facilitative. Nonetheless, our results suggest that although mature trees have competitive effects on their larger neighbors, they also have an important role in supporting the ingrowth of small trees. More broadly, we demonstrate that the nature of interactions between individual neighboring trees is highly context dependent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

National forest timber bids and export price interlinkages in the USA: The bounds testing approach

We examine the interrelationships of national forest timber bid and log export prices for Douglas-fir (Region 6) in 2003–2021 and loblolly pine (Region 8) using time-series stationarity and bounds-testing approaches. The analysis shows the difference in time series properties across different geographies and time scales. Bid prices for these dominant species of timber in each of two Forest Service regions are found to be stationary, while log export prices for those same species appear to be non-stationary. Bounds testing conducted with autoregressive distributed lag modeling methods provides strong evidence for a cointegrating relationship between timber bid prices and log export prices in Forest Service Region 6. In Region 8, evidence for a cointegrating relationship was weak. Here, the share of salvage wood in national forest timber sales is a statistically significant control variable in all models estimated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reduction of selenite by bacterial exudates

Bacterial reduction of Se(IV) is a significant component of the global selenium cycle, and hence affects the fate and transport of selenium in both natural and contaminated environments. However, it is unknown whether bacterially-produced exudates are capable of reducing selenium independent of bacterial cells. In this study, we measured the rate and extent of Se(IV) reduction by exudates from three bacterial species, and we determined the importance of exudate sulfhydryl sites by conducting parallel experiments after treatment of the exudates with a sulfhydryl-specific blocking molecule. Here, we also conducted experiments with whole cell biomass for each of the three bacterial species to determine the importance of exudate-only reduction relative to whole biomass-promoted reduction. Under our experimental conditions, exudates from Bacillus subtilis and Pseudomonas putida remove Se(IV) from solution after an approximately 20-24 h lag period, but exudates from Shewanella oneidensis are ineffective at Se(IV) removal, except when the cells are grown in the presence of Se(IV). For both B. subtilis and P. putida , pretreatment blocking of the sulfhydryl sites on the exudate molecules dramatically decreases the rate and extent of Se(IV) removal, strongly suggesting that sulfhydryl groups on the exudate molecules play a key role in the Se(IV) reduction mechanism. The behavior of S. oneidensis exudates indicates that up-regulation of the Se(IV) reduction mechanism can occur in response to the Se content of the medium in which the cells grow. Our results demonstrate the capacity of some bacterial exudates to reduce Se(IV), and suggest that the activity of bacterial exudates should be accounted for when modeling selenium cycling in natural and engineered environments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying spatial and vertical variations in soil C:N relationships in permafrost-affected landscapes

Permafrost regions are experiencing rapid changes that affect carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles, with implications for vegetation dynamics and gas exchanges with the atmosphere. Soil C:N ratio is a key indicator of organic matter quality, yet spatial estimates of N stocks and C:N ratios lag behind those for C. We used quantile regression forests to compare direct and indirect digital soil mapping approaches for predicting soil C:N ratios at 0–30, 30–60, and 60–100 cm depths across a latitudinal transect in Alaska. The indirect approach – deriving C:N from separately predicted C and N stocks – outperformed direct mapping for the surface layer (0–30 cm), while direct mapping was marginally better at greater depths. However, prediction accuracy decreased with depth for both methods. Temperature and topography were the most important predictors. Both approaches overestimated low and underestimated high C:N ratios, with direct mapping showing greater bias. Our results underscore the challenges of modeling C:N ratios in heterogeneous, data-sparse permafrost soils, but also suggest that indirect mapping holds promise if supported by more extensive datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seismic monitoring of EGS fracture stimulations at Utah FORGE (Part 1): Time-lapse variations of b-values and Shear-wave Splitting Rates of induced microearthquakes

Characterizing geologic formations near geothermal wells is crucial for efficient extraction of subsurface geothermal energy resources. To monitor effective fracture stimulation of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), we analyze a catalog of induced microearthquakes to characterize seismicity induced by Phase 2C fracture stimulations of the Utah FORGE project and derive the b-values for 424 induced microearthquakes in three stages of fracture stimulation. Here, we find the time-lapse variations of these b-values. We apply eigenvector rotation and waveform correlation to 3C geophone data to separate fast S 1 and slow S 2 waves, determine their directions, measure their lag time, and calculate the S-wave splitting rate (SSR) for six induced microearthquakes in Stage 1 and 21 in Stage 3. Both SSR values and b-values increase with time. The increase in these values may be related to heavily fractured zones created by fracture stimulations during Stage 2 injections. Large and highly variable SSR values in Stage 3 may reflect heterogeneities in the fracture zones. Time-lapse variations of SSR values and b-values may be one of the most useful approaches to monitoring and characterizing the effectiveness and efficiency of various types of fracture stimulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Limiter-aware adaptive excitation control for hydropower generators with legacy voltage regulation systems

Hydropower units often rely on legacy excitation systems with fixed automatic voltage regulator (AVR) settings, but parameter drift, changing operating conditions, and evolving grid-service demands can degrade terminal-voltage regulation over time. This problem should be addressed because poor voltage regulation affects reactive-power support, system stability, and reliable plant operation, and replacing installed AVR and limiter logic is costly and disruptive in practice. To address this issue, this paper proposes a retrofit-friendly enhancement for hydropower generator excitation systems that combines adaptive tuning of the AVR middle lead–lag branch with a small proportional-integral correction for removing steady bias and slow drift. The adaptive laws are normalized, projection-bounded, and equipped with leakage, while adaptation is enabled only in the middle branch. Thus, the intent of the underexcitation and overexcitation limiters, as well as legacy current and rate limits, remains unchanged. Stability is analyzed under incremental performance assumptions, yielding boundedness and asymptotic tracking in the absence of saturation. The method is evaluated using real operational data from a utility-scale hydropower unit at Rocky Reach Dam, Unit C-8. Compared with the fixed AVR baseline, the proposed method reduces terminal-voltage mean squared error by about 70%, removes long periods of steady-state bias, and improves transient tracking while coexisting with limiter actions. These results show that substantial voltage-control improvement can be achieved on existing hydropower units with minimal integration effort and without replacing the installed AVR structure.

ESST5B model↗

A quadratic programming flux correction method for high-order DG discretizations of S transport

In this work, we present a new flux-fixup approach for arbitrarily high-order discontinuous Galerkin (DG) discretizations of the S N transport equation, and we demonstrate the compatibility of this approach with the Variable Eddington Factor (VEF) method. The new fixup approach is sweep-compatible: during a transport sweep (block Gauss-Seidel iteration in which the scattering source is lagged), a local quadratic programming (QP) problem is solved in each spatial element to ensure that the solution satisfies certain physical constraints, including local particle balance. In this paper, we describe two choices of physical constraints, resulting in two variants of the method: QP Zero (QPZ) and QP Maximum Principle (QPMP). In QPZ, the finite element coefficients of the solution are constrained to be nonnegative. In QPMP, they are constrained to adhere to an approximate discrete maximum principle. There are two primary takeaways in this paper. First, when the positive Bernstein basis is used for DG discretization, the QPMP method eliminates negativities, preserves high-order accuracy for smooth problems, and significantly dampens unphysical oscillations in the solution. The latter feature – the dampening of unphysical oscillations – is an improvement upon standard, simpler fixup approaches such as the approach described in (denoted as the “zero and rescale” (ZR) method in this paper). This improvement comes at a moderate computational cost, but it is not prohibitive. Our results show that, even in an unrealistic worst-case scenario where 83% of the spatial elements require a fixup, the computational cost of performing a transport sweep with fixup is only ~31% greater than performing one without fixup. The second takeaway is that the VEF method can be used to accelerate the convergence of transport sweeps even when a fixup is applied. When optically thick regions are present, transport sweeps converge slowly, regardless of whether a fixup is applied, and acceleration is needed. However, attempting to apply standard diffusion synthetic acceleration (DSA) to fixed-up transport sweeps results in divergence for optically thick problems. Our results show that the same is not true for VEF. When VEF is combined with fixed-up transport sweeps, the result is a scheme that produces a nonnegative solution, converges independently of the mean free path, and, in the case of the QPMP fixup, adheres to an approximate discrete maximum principle.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Quantifying the effects of urbanization on floods in a changing environment to promote water security — A case study of two adjacent basins in Texas

The increased occurrence of flood events resulting from urbanization and global climate change is a great threat to water security. To systematically evaluate the impacts of urbanization on floods, here we applied a paired catchments approach to two adjacent river basins in south-central Texas — the San Antonio River Basin (SARB), with fast urbanization; and the Guadalupe River Basin (GRB), with little land cover change. A physics-based distributed hydrological model — the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model, embedded with a multi-purpose reservoir module (DHSVM-Res) — was used to simulate streamflow and reservoir storage. The simulations were conducted under different land cover scenarios, including a newly developed continuous land cover series (CLCS). Holistic analyses were then conducted for the paired basins using three methods: analyzing the selected flood events, detecting change points (CP) of monthly floods, and testing the elasticity of long-term flood regimes. The results suggest that: (1) urbanization may reduce lag time and elevate flood peaks significantly by 3–30% in our study area; (2) when there is little land cover change, changing climate is the major driver of variations in the monthly maximum streamflow (MMS); (3) fast urbanization can amplify streamflow variability, increase MMS significantly, and thus alter the timing of CP; and (4) the mean MMS of observed streamflow in the SARB has increased by as much as 75.7% from the pre-CP to post-CP periods. This comprehensive study fills in a gap in our current understanding of the isolated impacts of urbanization on flooding and is expected to support future explorations of anthropogenic influences on floods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗