Results for “mission trends” — Page 10

NASA NTRS2021

ICESat-2 Pointing Calibration and Geolocation Performance

ICESat-2 science requirements are dependent on the accurate real-time pointing control (i.e., geolocation control) and postprocessed geolocation knowledge of the laser altimeter surface returns. Prelaunch pointing alignment errors and postlaunch pointing alignment variation result in large geolocation errors that must be calibrated on orbit. In addition, the changing sun-orbit geometry causes thermal-mechanical forced laser frame alignment variations at the orbit period and trends from days, weeks, and months. Early mission analysis computed precise postlaunch laser beam alignment calibration. The alignment calibration was uploaded to the spacecraft and enabled the pointing control performance to achieve 4.4 ± 6.0 m, a significant improvement over the 45 m (1 σ) mission requirement. Laser frame alignment calibrations are used to reduce the alignment bias and time variation, as well as the orbital variation contributions to geolocation knowledge error from 6 to 1.7 m (1 σ). Relative beam alignment of the six beams is calibrated and shown to contribute between 0.5 ± 0.1 m and 2.4 ± 0.2 m of remaining geolocation knowledge error. Independent geolocation assessment based on comparison to high-resolution digital elevation models agrees well with the calibration geolocation error estimates. The analysis demonstrates the ICESat-2 mission is performing far better than its geolocation knowledge requirement of 6.5 m (1 σ) after the laser frame alignment bias variation and orbital variation calibrations have been applied. Remaining geolocation error is beam dependent and ranges from 2.5 m for beam 6 to 4.4 m for beam 2 (mean + 1 σ).

S B Luthcke↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Trend Analysis of AI/ML Tools and Services in NASA

Usage of Machine Learning (ML) algorithms within NASA’s Science Mission Directorates have been increasing over theyears. This can be quantitatively observed in the upward trends of ML usage found by analyzing the publications andpresentations (in affiliation with NASA) available through NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) and PubMed Central(PMC). Identifying the problem types and class of ML algorithms used to tackle them across the divisions can presentopportunities for collaborations, interdisciplinary projects and knowledge transfer for sustainable partnerships. In thispresentation, we will present the trend analysis of ML algorithms used in different SMD divisions based on the publicationsand presentations publicly available. We identify these trends by leveraging ML algorithms which are able to search throughthe publication texts semantically; which are also highly scalable. We will also present an analysis on the available opensource tools and services in NASA leveraging AI/ML algorithms. This work will provide ample avenues for collaborativeefforts across different disciplines based on the surfaced trends.

Slesa Adhikari↗

NASA NTRS2018

Dynamic Shared Computing Resources for Multi-Robot Mars Exploration

The NASA roadmap for 2020 and beyond includes several key technologies which will have a game-changing impact on planetary exploration. The ﬁrst of these is High Performance Spaceﬂight Computing (HPSC), which will provide orders of magnitude increases in processing power for next-generation rovers and orbiters (Doyle et al. 2013). The second is Delay Tolerant Networking, which overlays the Deep Space Network, providing internet-like abstractions and store-forward to route data through intermittent delays in connectivity. The third is a trend toward small, co-dependent robots included in ﬂagship missions (MarCO, PUFFER, and Mars Heli). Taken together, these imply an increasing amount of communication and computing heterogeneity on Mars in coming decades. Motivated by these technological trends, we study the concept of Mars on-site shared analysis, information, and communication (MOSAIC) for Mars exploration. The key algorithmic problem associated with MOSAIC networks is simultaneous scheduling of computation, communication, and caching of data, which we illustrate using the three scenarios. We present models, preliminary solutions, and simulation results for two scenarios, showing how mission efﬁciency relates to communication bandwidth, processing power, geography of the environment, and optimal scheduling of computation, communication, and data caching. The third scenario illustrates future directions of this work.

Chien, Steve↗

NASA NTRS1990

International programs - A growing trend

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration has collaborated successfully in space science missions with a multiplicity of partners, including the European Space Agency, Federal Republic of Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Japan, and the Soviet Union, among others. These collaborations generally arise out of common scientific goals and in the interest of economizing to take advantage of skills and capabilities among the partners. A trend towards increased cooperation in space is expected to continue as the global scientific community works together to plan future space science missions and the missions become more sophisticated.

Bunner, A. N.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Design and Fabrication of DebriSat - A Representative LEO Satellite for Improvements to Standard Satellite Breakup Models

This paper discusses the design and fabrication of DebriSat, a 50 kg satellite developed to be representative of a modern low Earth orbit satellite in terms of its components, materials used, and fabrication procedures. DebriSat will be the target of a future hypervelocity impact experiment to determine the physical characteristics of debris generated after an on-orbit collision of a modern LEO satellite. The major ground-based satellite impact experiment used by DoD and NASA in their development of satellite breakup models was SOCIT, conducted in 1992. The target used for that experiment was a Navy transit satellite (~40 cm, 35 kg) fabricated in the 1960's. Modern satellites are very different in materials and construction techniques than those built 40 years ago. Therefore, there is a need to conduct a similar experiment using a modern target satellite to improve the fidelity of the satellite breakup models. To ensure that DebriSat is truly representative of typical LEO missions, a comprehensive study of historical LEO satellite designs and missions within the past 15 years for satellites ranging from 1 kg to 5000 kg was conducted. This study identified modern trends in hardware, material, and construction practices utilized in recent LEO missions. Although DebriSat is an engineering model, specific attention is placed on the quality, type, and quantity of the materials used in its fabrication to ensure the integrity of the outcome. With the exception of software, all other aspects of the satellite s design, fabrication, and assembly integration and testing will be as rigorous as that of an actual flight vehicle. For example, to simulate survivability of launch loads, DebriSat will be subjected to a vibration test. As well, the satellite will undergo thermal vacuum tests to verify that the components and overall systems meet typical environmental standards. Proper assembly and integration techniques will involve comprehensive joint analysis, including the precise torqueing of fasteners and thread locking. Finally, the implementation of process documentation and verification procedures is discussed to provide a comprehensive overview of the design and fabrication of this representative LEO satellite.

Clark, S.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Trend Analysis of AI/ML Tools and Services in NASA

Usage of Machine Learning (ML) algorithms within NASA’s Science Mission Directorates have been increasing over the years. This can be quantitatively observed in the upward trends of ML usage found by analyzing the publications and presentations (in affiliation with NASA) available through NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) and PubMed Central(PMC). Identifying the problem types and class of ML algorithms used to tackle them across the divisions can present opportunities for collaborations, interdisciplinary projects and knowledge transfer for sustainable partnerships. In this presentation, we will present the trend analysis of ML algorithms used in different SMD divisions based on the publications and presentations publicly available. We identify these trends by leveraging ML algorithms which are able to search through the publication texts semantically; which are also highly scalable. We will also present an analysis on the available opensource tools and services in NASA leveraging AI/ML algorithms. This work will provide ample avenues for collaborative efforts across different disciplines based on the surfaced trends.

Slesa Adhikari↗

NASA NTRS2011

Observed Recent Trends in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Over Major Ocean Basins

In this study, we use Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) rainfall data together with historical storm track records to examine the trend of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall in major ocean basins during recent decades (1980-2007). We find that accumulated total rainfall along storm tracks for all tropical cyclones shows a weak positive trend over the whole tropics. However, total rainfall associated with weak storms, and intense storms (Category 4-5) both show significant positive trends, while total rainfall associated with intermediate storms (Category1-3) show a significant negative trend. Storm intensity defined as total rain produced per unit storm also shows increasing trend for all storm types. Basin-wide, from the first half (1980-1993) to the second half (1994-2007) of the data period, the North Atlantic shows the pronounced increase in TC number and TC rainfall while the Northeast Pacific shows a significant decrease in all storm types. Except for the Northeast Pacific, all other major basins (North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific, Southern Oceans, and Northern Indian Ocean) show a significant increase in total number and rainfall amount in Category 4-5 storms. Overall, trends in TC rainfall in different ocean basins are consistent with long-term changes in the ambient large-scale environment, including SST, vertical wind shear, sea level pressure, mid-tropospheric humidity, and Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI). Notably the pronounced positive (negative) trend of TC rainfall in the North Atlantic (Northeast Pacific) appears to be related to the most (least) rapid increase in SST and MPI, and the largest decrease (increase) in vertical wind shear in the region, relative to other ocean basins.

Lau, K. M.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Spacecraft technology trends - A view from the past

Future spacecraft will be sent on missions to complete the exploration of the solar system, to return samples from celestial bodies, record the process of creation of stars, galaxies, and the universe itself, to provide a continuous record of earth processes, and to maintain vital space communications. A key ingredient to projecting the future is to comprehend the historic record and to understand the significance of trends. This paper focuses on spacecraft cost and life trends, as well as those of the major subsystems. Throughout the history of the 'space age' there has been significant progress in the performance of spacecraft and their subsystems. However, various aspects of spacecraft performance lag behind what is technically feasible by a considerable margin. In addition, examination of the historical trend implies that future spacecraft will likely continue to be relatively unique in their design features. This is in contrast to the technically realizable future attributes such as large space platforms, modularity, system autonomy and on-orbit repair and servicing.

Hudson, Wayne R.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Monitoring VIIRS Thermal Emissive Bands Long-Term Performance Using Lunar Observations

Two Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instruments are currently operating in space, one onboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) satellite launched on October 28, 2011 and the other onboard the NOAA-20 satellite launched on November 18, 2017. The performance of the seven VIIRS thermal emissive bands (TEBs) is monitored via on-orbit calibration data, the analysis of Earth view observations, as well as inter-comparisons with other sensors. The Moon has been used as a unique invariant target for on-orbit sensor calibration because its surface property is considered extremely stable over time in spectra, radiometry, and geometry with a repeatable lunar phase. This paper presents the assessments of the S-NPP and NOAA-20 VIIRS TEB on-orbit calibration stability using near-monthly scheduled lunar observations over their respective missions. The methodology previously developed for MODIS is now applied to VIIRS to monitor the TEB long-term stability by extracting and trending the lunar brightness temperatures from selected unsaturated pixels. It includes a correction applied to reduce any impact from the Sun–Moon geometry (e.g. Sun-Moon distance variation). The results show that the mission-long brightness temperature trends from the lunar surface are stable for all VIIRS TEBs, despite noticeable seasonal variations in the lunar thermal emissive radiance.

VIIRS↗

NASA NTRS2008

Facilitating Analysis of Multiple Partial Data Streams

Robotic Operations Automation: Mechanisms, Imaging, Navigation report Generation (ROAMING) is a set of computer programs that facilitates and accelerates both tactical and strategic analysis of time-sampled data especially the disparate and often incomplete streams of Mars Explorer Rover (MER) telemetry data described in the immediately preceding article. As used here, tactical refers to the activities over a relatively short time (one Martian day in the original MER application) and strategic refers to a longer time (the entire multi-year MER missions in the original application). Prior to installation, ROAMING must be configured with the types of data of interest, and parsers must be modified to understand the format of the input data (many example parsers are provided, including for general CSV files). Thereafter, new data from multiple disparate sources are automatically resampled into a single common annotated spreadsheet stored in a readable space-separated format, and these data can be processed or plotted at any time scale. Such processing or plotting makes it possible to study not only the details of a particular activity spanning only a few seconds, but also longer-term trends. ROAMING makes it possible to generate mission-wide plots of multiple engineering quantities [e.g., vehicle tilt as in Figure 1(a), motor current, numbers of images] that, heretofore could be found only in thousands of separate files. ROAMING also supports automatic annotation of both images and graphs. In the MER application, labels given to terrain features by rover scientists and engineers are automatically plotted in all received images based on their associated camera models (see Figure 2), times measured in seconds are mapped to Mars local time, and command names or arbitrary time-labeled events can be used to label engineering plots, as in Figure 1(b).

Maimone, Mark W.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

GEOS Constituent Data Assimilation beyond Aura MLS: Assimilating NASA SAGE III/ISS profiles of stratospheric water vapor

Water vapor in the lower stratosphere is an important trace gas for atmospheric chemistry and radiative budget with direct impact on climate. During the last quarter of the 20th century, the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) missions were crucial in monitoring the stratospheric ozone loss and the subsequent recovery as well as trends in water vapor linked to surface temperature trends. The SAGE III instrument aboard the International Space Station (ISS) continues the SAGE mission record, with high vertical resolution profiles of water vapor (and other constituents) since mid-2017. The NASA GEOS Earth system model has the capability to assimilate multi-constituents from ground and space-based instruments using the GEOS Constituent Data Assimilation System (CoDAS). Reanalysis products of stratospheric water vapor without data constraints are historically poor, and two recent reanalyses which assimilated stratospheric constituents observed by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) improve the representation of stratospheric composition, including water vapor, when compared against independent observations. The MLS instrument is on NASA's Aura satellite which is expected to be decommissioned in the coming years. Here we demonstrate that while the number of solar occultation observations a day from SAGE III/ISS is about 1 % of the total number of profiles observed globally by MLS, the chemical timescales of water vapor in the lower stratosphere are long enough that the SAGE III/ISS data can provide a useful constraint on the assimilated product. Analyzed water vapor fields from assimilating only SAGE III/ISS water vapor profiles agree well with independent stratospheric observations, including when compared against the frost-point hygrometers at the three NOAA stations. Over the five-year period from 2017 through 2022, the analyzed water vapor using SAGE III/ISS captures many of the features seen with the assimilation of MLS observations. Note, this ability is reduced over regions where the SAGE III/ISS instrument provides infrequent or no observations (associated with the orbit of the ISS), as highlighted in the case study period following the eruption of the tropical underwater volcano Hunga Tonga in early 2022. Nevertheless, there is a clear benefit to the assimilation of stratospheric water vapor from SAGE III/ISS observations, allowing us to continue to monitor stratospheric composition for climate assessments following the impending loss of Aura.

K. Emma Knowland↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

GEOS Constituent Data Assimilation Beyond Aura MLS: Assimilating NASA SAGE III/ISS Profiles of Stratospheric Water Vapor

Water vapor in the lower stratosphere is an important trace gas for atmospheric chemistry and radiative budget with direct impact on climate. During the last quarter of the 20th century, the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) missions were crucial in monitoring the stratospheric ozone loss and the subsequent recovery as well as trends in water vapor linked to surface temperature trends. The SAGE III instrument aboard the International Space Station (ISS) continues the SAGE mission record, with high vertical resolution profiles of water vapor (and other constituents) since mid-2017. The NASA GEOS Earth system model has the capability to assimilate multi-constituents from ground and space-based instruments using the GEOS Constituent Data Assimilation System (CoDAS). Reanalysis products of stratospheric water vapor without data constraints are historically poor, and two recent reanalyses which assimilated stratospheric constituents observed by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) improve the representation of stratospheric composition, including water vapor, when compared against independent observations. The MLS instrument is on NASA's Aura satellite which is expected to be decommissioned in the coming years. Here we demonstrate that while the number of solar occultation observations a day from SAGE III/ISS is about 1 % of the total number of profiles observed globally by MLS, the chemical timescales of water vapor in the lower stratosphere are long enough that the SAGE III/ISS data can provide a useful constraint on the assimilated product. Analyzed water vapor fields from assimilating only SAGE III/ISS water vapor profiles agree well with independent stratospheric observations, including when compared against the frost-point hygrometers at the three NOAA stations. Over the five-year period from 2017 through 2022, the analyzed water vapor using SAGE III/ISS captures many of the features seen with the assimilation of MLS observations. Note, this ability is reduced over regions where the SAGE III/ISS instrument provides infrequent or no observations (associated with the orbit of the ISS), as highlighted in the case study period following the eruption of the tropical underwater volcano Hunga Tonga in early 2022. Nevertheless, there is a clear benefit to the assimilation of stratospheric water vapor from SAGE III/ISS observations, allowing us to continue to monitor stratospheric composition for climate assessments following the impending loss of Aura.

K. Emma Knowland↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

GEOS Constituent Data Assimilation Beyond Aura MLS: Assimilating NASA SAGE III/ISS Profiles of Stratospheric Water Vapor

Water vapor in the lower stratosphere is an important trace gas for atmospheric chemistry and radiative budget with direct impact on climate. During the last quarter of the 20th century, the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) missions were crucial in monitoring the stratospheric ozone loss and the subsequent recovery as well as trends in water vapor linked to surface temperature trends. The SAGE III instrument aboard the International Space Station (ISS) continues the SAGE mission record, with high vertical resolution profiles of water vapor (and other constituents) since mid-2017. The NASA GEOS Earth system model has the capability to assimilate multi-constituents from ground and space-based instruments using the GEOS Constituent Data Assimilation System (CoDAS). Reanalysis products of stratospheric water vapor without data constraints are historically poor, and two recent reanalyses which assimilated stratospheric constituents observed by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) improve the representation of stratospheric composition, including water vapor, when compared against independent observations. The MLS instrument is on NASA's Aura satellite which is expected to be decommissioned in the coming years. Here we demonstrate that while the number of solar occultation observations a day from SAGE III/ISS is about 1 % of the total number of profiles observed globally by MLS, the chemical timescales of water vapor in the lower stratosphere are long enough that the SAGE III/ISS data can provide a useful constraint on the assimilated product. Analyzed water vapor fields from assimilating only SAGE III/ISS water vapor profiles agree well with independent stratospheric observations, including when compared against the frost-point hygrometers at the three NOAA stations. Over the five-year period from 2017 through 2022, the analyzed water vapor using SAGE III/ISS captures many of the features seen with the assimilation of MLS observations. Note, this ability is reduced over regions where the SAGE III/ISS instrument provides infrequent or no observations (associated with the orbit of the ISS), as highlighted in the case study period following the eruption of the tropical underwater volcano Hunga Tonga in early 2022. Nevertheless, there is a clear benefit to the assimilation of stratospheric water vapor from SAGE III/ISS observations, allowing us to continue to monitor stratospheric composition for climate assessments following the impending loss of Aura.

K. Emma Knowland↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Overview of NASA’s Science Mission Directorate Small Satellites Programs and Advances in Transformative Science Measurements with Small Satellites

Small satellites have become an accepted platform for enabling high-quality science measurements and observations. NASA missions have leveraged advances in sensor miniaturization, technology innovations, and new small satellite mission architectures to support high spatial and temporal measurements, continuity measurements, and constellations in response to science objectives described in NASA’s Decadal Surveys. Across six divisions of the Science Mission Directorate (SMD), over 12 years, SMD has funded 88 CubeSat/ SmallSat Missions and 59 Studies to date. Currently, SMD has 53 small spacecraft science missions (87spacecraft) in implementation or formulation. This paper provides the background of efforts to promote the implementation of small satellites within NASA as a balanced portfolio for the agency’s science, technology, and exploration goals. We include analysis of SmallSat awards and trends funded by SMD through Research Opportunities in Space and Earth Sciences (ROSES), Small Innovative Missions for Planetary Exploration (SIMPLEx), and Small Explorer (SMEX) and Medium Explorer (MIDEX) calls over the last 12years. The data source of this assessment is a subset of the NASA SmallSat Coordination Group Database, a collection of all known funded NASA SmallSat and CubeSat missions and studies. This paper also provides an overview of small satellite programs and selected missions from SMD’s divisions: Astrophysics, Heliophysics, Earth Science, and Planetary Science, and describes SMD’s efforts in fostering an incremental and continuous path to achieve high-priority science through transformative science measurements. This paper recognizes the latest observations and trends of the NASA CubeSat / SmallSat Science missions with masses ranging between 1kg to 500kg.

Small Satellites, SMD SmallSat, CubeSat,↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advances in Transformative Science Measurements with Small Satellites

Small satellites have become an accepted platform for enabling high-quality science measurements and observations. NASA missions have leveraged advances in sensor miniaturization, technology innovations, and new small satellite mission architectures to support high spatial and temporal measurements, continuity measurements, and constellations in response to science objectives described in NASA’s Decadal Surveys. Across six divisions of the Science Mission Directorate (SMD), over 12 years, SMD has funded 88 CubeSat/ SmallSat Missions and 59 Studies to date. Currently, SMD has 53 small spacecraft science missions (87spacecraft) in implementation or formulation. This paper provides the background of efforts to promote the implementation of small satellites within NASA as a balanced portfolio for the agency’s science, technology, and exploration goals. We include analysis of SmallSat awards and trends funded by SMD through Research Opportunities in Space and Earth Sciences (ROSES), Small Innovative Missions for Planetary Exploration (SIMPLEx), and Small Explorer (SMEX) and Medium Explorer (MIDEX) calls over the last 12years. The data source of this assessment is a subset of the NASA SmallSat Coordination Group Database, a collection of all known funded NASA SmallSat and CubeSat missions and studies. This paper also provides an overview of small satellite programs and selected missions from SMD’s divisions: Astrophysics, Heliophysics, Earth Science, and Planetary Science, and describes SMD’s efforts in fostering an incremental and continuous path to achieve high-priority science through transformative science measurements. This presentation recognizes the latest observations and trends of the NASA CubeSat / SmallSat Science missions with masses ranging between 1kg to 500kg.

Small Satellites, SMD SmallSat, CubeSat↗

NASA NTRS2001

The Magnitude and Variability of Global and Regional Precipitation Based on the 22-Year GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) and Three-Year TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Data Sets

This paper gives an overview of the analysis of global precipitation over the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to study global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. The global trend analysis must be interpreted carefully, however, because the inhomogeneity of the data set makes detecting a small signal very difficult, especially over this relatively short period. Identifying regional trends in precipitation may be more practical. From 1979 to 1999 the northern mid-latitudes appear to be drying, the southern mid-latitudes have gotten wetter, and there is a mixed signal in the tropics. The relation between this field of trends and the relation to the frequency of El Nino events during this time period is explored. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. These El Nino minus La Nina composites of normalized precipitation show the usual positive, or wet, anomaly over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean with the negative, or dry, anomaly over the maritime continent along with an additional negative anomaly over Brazil and the Atlantic Ocean extending into Africa and a positive anomaly over the Horn of Africa and the western Indian Ocean. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern US and Atlantic Ocean into Europe. Further to the west a negative anomaly extends southeastward again from the Maritime Continent across the South Pacific and through the Drake Passage. The N.H. counterpart crosses the North Pacific and southern Canada. In the Southern Hemisphere an anomaly feature is shown to spiral into the Antarctica land mass. The extremes of ENSO-related anomalies are also examined and indicate that globally, during both El Nino and La Nina, more extremes of precipitation ( both wet and dry) occur than during the "neutral" regime, with the El Nino regime showing larger magnitudes. The distribution is different for the globe as a whole and when the area is restricted to just land. The recent (1998-present) TRMM observations are compared with the similar period of GPCP analyses with very good agreement in terms of pattern and generally good agreement with regard to magnitude. However, there still are differences among the individual TRMM products using passive and active microwave techniques and these need to be resolved before longer-term products such as the GPCP analyses can be validated.

Adler, Robert F.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Verification of Real-Time WSA-ENLIL+Cone Simulations of CME Arrival-Time at the CCMC from 2010 to 2016

The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations world-wide to model coronal mass ejection (CME) propagation. As such, it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC space weather team. CCMC uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in situ interplanetary coronal mass ejection leading edge measurements at Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A), Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-Behind (STEREO-B), and Earth (Wind and ACE) for simulations completed between March 2010 and December 2016 (over 1,800 CMEs). We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three locations. For all predicted CME arrivals, the hit rate is 0.5, and the false alarm rate is 0.1. For the 273 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, STEREO-A, or STEREO-B, and was actually observed (hit event), the mean absolute arrival-time prediction error was 10.4 +/- 0.9 h, with a tendency to early prediction error of -4.0 h. We show the dependence of the arrival-time error on CME input parameters. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations used to initialize the model CME inputs by comparing model verification results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A sidelobe operations (August 2014- December 2015). There is an increase of 1.7 h in the CME arrival time error during single, or limited two-viewpoint periods, compared to the three-spacecraft viewpoint period. This trend would apply to a future space weather mission at L5 or L4 as another coronagraph viewpoint to reduce CME arrival time errors compared to a single L1 viewpoint.

MHD / modeling / validation / forecasting / corona↗

NASA NTRS1980

Pointing and control for planetary spacecraft - The first twenty years

The evolution of guidance and control systems for United States planetary and unmanned lunar spacecraft over the last 20 years is traced. The characteristics of the guidance and control systems used on spacecraft from the Range lunar impactor to the planned Galileo Jupiter orbiter and entry probe are surveyed, with attention given to the uses of three-axis stabilized, spin-stabilized and dual-spin designs. System performance trends that have evolved to meet the increasing science and mission requirements of the spacecraft are considered in the areas of attitude references, control consumables, dynamics and system modeling, thrust vector control, optical navigation, manuever turns, maneuver velocity control, instrument pointing, and antenna pointing. Hardware trends in optical sensors, inertial sensors, processing electronics, electromechanical devices, and system testing and reliability are also reviewed. The achievements represented by these advances are emphasized, and it is predicted that future developments will be in the areas of increased control system autonomy and performance requirements.

Pace, G. D.↗