An Internally Consistent Model for High Energy Density Material Properties and Diagnostics
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Hansen, Stephanie B. [Sandia National Laboratories↗
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Evaluating Tropical Precipitation Relations in CMIP6 Models with ARM Data
Abstract A set of diagnostics based on simple, statistical relationships between precipitation and the thermodynamic environment in observations is implemented to assess phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) model behavior with respect to precipitation. Observational data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) permanent field observational sites are augmented with satellite observations of precipitation and temperature as an observational baseline. A robust relationship across observational datasets between column water vapor (CWV) and precipitation, in which conditionally averaged precipitation exhibits a sharp pickup at some critical CWV value, provides a useful convective onset diagnostic for climate model comparison. While a few models reproduce an appropriate precipitation pickup, most models begin their pickup at too low CWV and the increase in precipitation with increasing CWV is too weak. Convective transition statistics compiled in column relative humidity (CRH) partially compensate for model temperature biases—although imperfectly since the temperature dependence is more complex than that of column saturation. Significant errors remain in individual models and weak pickups are generally not improved. The conditional-average precipitation as a function of CRH can be decomposed into the product of the probability of raining and mean precipitation during raining times (conditional intensity). The pickup behavior is primarily dependent on the probability of raining near the transition and on the conditional intensity at higher CRH. Most models roughly capture the CRH dependence of these two factors. However, compensating biases often occur: model conditional intensity that is too low at a given CRH is compensated in part by excessive probability of precipitation.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
CondiDiag1.0: a flexible online diagnostic tool for conditional sampling and budget analysis in the E3SM atmosphere model (EAM)
Abstract. Numerical models used in weather and climate prediction take into account a comprehensive set of atmospheric processes (i.e., phenomena) such as the resolved and unresolved fluid dynamics, radiative transfer, cloud and aerosol life cycles, and mass or energy exchanges with the Earth's surface. In order to identify model deficiencies and improve predictive skills, it is important to obtain process-level understanding of the interactions between different processes. Conditional sampling and budget analysis are powerful tools for process-oriented model evaluation, but they often require tedious ad hoc coding and large amounts of instantaneous model output, resulting in inefficient use of human and computing resources. This paper presents an online diagnostic tool that addresses this challenge by monitoring model variables in a generic manner as they evolve within the time integration cycle. The tool is convenient to use. It allows users to select sampling conditions and specify monitored variables at run time. Both the evolving values of the model variables and their increments caused by different atmospheric processes can be monitored and archived. Online calculation of vertical integrals is also supported. Multiple sampling conditions can be monitored in a single simulation in combination with unconditional sampling. The paper explains in detail the design and implementation of the tool in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 1. The usage is demonstrated through three examples: a global budget analysis of dust aerosol mass concentration, a composite analysis of sea salt emission and its dependency on surface wind speed, and a conditionally sampled relative humidity budget. The tool is expected to be easily portable to closely related atmospheric models that use the same or similar data structures and time integration methods.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Evaluate the impact of sensor accuracy on model performance in data-driven building fault detection and diagnostics using Monte Carlo simulation
The performance of data-driven fault detection and diagnostics (FDD) is heavily dependent on sensors. However, sensor inaccuracy and sensor faults are pervasive in building operation: inaccurate and missing sensor readings deteriorate FDD performance; sensor inaccuracy will also affect the selection of sensor for data-driven FDD in the model training process, which is another key factor of data-driven FDD performance. Sensor accuracy and sensor selection individually are well-studied research topics in this field, but the impact of sensor accuracy on sensor selection and its further impact on FDD performance has not been evaluated and quantified. In this paper, we developed a novel analysis methodology that comprehensively evaluates sensor fault on sensor selection and FDD accuracy. Monte Carlo simulation is applied to deal with multiple stochastic sensor inaccuracy and provide probabilistic analysis results of the impact of sensor inaccuracy on sensor selection and FDD accuracy. This methodology focuses on the net impact of fault states across a full sensor set. The developed methodology can be used for the early-stage sensor design and operation-stage sensor maintenance. Furthermore, a case study is conducted to demonstrate the analysis methodology using a commercial building model crated to Flexible Research Platform located at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, USA.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Radiation modeling and experimental validation of sub-cyclotron frequency microwave synchrotron radiation as a diagnostic tool for runaway electrons in present and future tokamaks
The microwave synchrotron radiation in the sub-cyclotron frequency region has been systematically validated as a diagnostic method for runaway electrons (>1 MeV) with radiation modeling and experiments on the DIII-D tokamak. Experimental observations reveal that sub-cyclotron frequency microwave radiation emerges only after runaway electrons are excited during plasma disruptions. Electron gyro-magnetic radiation modeling confirms that only runaway electrons with energies exceeding 1 MeV can emit radiation in the observed sub-cyclotron frequency band on DIII-D. The synchrotron Razin and Beaming effects are modeled in both the sub-cyclotron and standard Electron Cyclotron Emission (ECE) frequency region. Due to the pronounced beaming effect, the modeling supports that a standard ECE system is insensitive to synchrotron radiation from beamed runaway electrons (p ∥ >> p ⟂ ), but very sensitive to ECE radiation from isotropic suprathermal electrons (100 keV or less). DIII-D experiments further show that combining ECE and sub-cyclotron receivers reveals new insights into transient runaway dynamics during the plateau phase. Certain transient crash events appear only in the sub-cyclotron band or lead to opposite changes on the sub-cyclotron and standard ECE signals, supporting models where transient MHD events can exert a different effect on electrons of different energy levels. This novel diagnostic technique offers a powerful tool for studying and detecting runaway electron dynamics in both present-day and high-field future tokamaks. The diagnostic approach has been extrapolated to the SPARC tokamak, where sub-cyclotron radiation is predicted to respond sensitively and solely to runaway electrons during SPARC’s L-mode startup phase.
Yu, Guanying [Hefei Comprehensive National Science↗
Mesoscale Convective Systems Tracking Method Intercomparison (MCSMIP): Application to DYAMOND Global km‐Scale Simulations
Abstract Global kilometer‐scale models represent the future of Earth system modeling, enabling explicit simulation of organized convective storms and their associated extreme weather. Here, we comprehensively evaluate tropical mesoscale convective system (MCS) characteristics in the DYAMOND (DYnamics of the atmospheric general circulation modeled on non‐hydrostatic domains) simulations for both summer and winter phases. Using 10 different feature trackers applied to simulations and satellite observations, we assess MCS frequency, precipitation, and other key characteristics. Substantial differences (a factor of 2–3) arise among trackers in observed MCS frequency and their precipitation contribution, but model‐observation differences in MCS statistics are more consistent across trackers. DYAMOND models are generally skillful in simulating tropical mean MCS frequency, with multi‐model mean biases ranging from −2%–8% over land and −8%–8% over ocean (summer vs. winter). However, most DYAMOND models underestimate MCS precipitation amount (23%) and their contribution to total precipitation (17%). Biases in precipitation contributions are generally smaller over land (13%) than over ocean (21%), with moderate inter‐model variability. While models better simulate MCS diurnal cycles and cloud shield characteristics, they overestimate MCS precipitation intensity and underestimate stratiform rain contributions (up to a factor of 2), particularly over land, albeit observational uncertainties exist. Additionally, models exhibit a wide range of precipitable water in the tropics compared to reanalysis and satellite observations, with many models showing exaggerated sensitivity of MCS precipitation intensity to precipitable water. The MCS metrics developed here provide process‐oriented diagnostics to guide future model development.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A smart alarm for particle accelerator beamline operations
We present the initial results of a proof-of-concept 'smart alarm' for the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility injector beamline at Jefferson Lab. To minimize machine downtime and improve operational efficiency, an autonomous alarm system able to identify and diagnose unusual machine states is needed. Our approach leverages a trained neural network capable of alerting operators (a) when an anomalous condition exists in the beamline and (b) identifying the element setting that is the root cause. The tool is based on an inverse model that maps beamline readings (diagnostic readbacks) to settings (beamline attributes operators can modify). The model takes as input readings from the machine and computes machine settings which are compared to control setpoints. Instances where predictions differ from setpoints by a user-defined threshold are flagged as anomalous. Given data corresponding to 354 anomalous injector configurations, the model can narrow the root cause of an anomalous condition to three potential candidates with 94.6% accuracy. Furthermore, compared to the current method of identifying anomalous conditions which raises an alarm when machine parameters drift outside their normal tolerances, the data-driven model can identify 83% more anomalous conditions.
43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
The Evolving Distribution of Relative Humidity Conditional Upon Daily Maximum Temperature in a Warming Climate
Abstract The impacts of heat waves in a warming climate depend not only on changing temperatures but also on changing humidity. Using 35 simulations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM LENS), we investigate the long‐term evolution of the joint distribution of summer relative humidity (RH) and daily maximum temperature ( Tmax ) near four U.S. cities (New York City, Chicago, Phoenix, and New Orleans) under the high‐emissions Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. We estimate the conditional quantiles of RH given Tmax with quantile regression models, using functions of temperature for each city in July for three time periods (1990–2005, 2026–2035, and 2071–2080). Quality‐of‐fit diagnostics indicate that these models accurately estimate conditional quantiles for each city. As expected, each quantile of Tmax increases from 1990–2005 to 2071–2080, while mean RH decreases modestly. Conditional upon a fixed quantile of Tmax , the median and high quantiles of RH decrease, while those of the Heat Index (HI) and dew point both increase. This result suggests that, despite a modest decrease in median relative humidity, heat stress measured by metrics considering both humidity and temperature in a warming climate will increase faster than that measured by temperatures alone would indicate. For a fixed Tmax , the high quantiles of RH (and thus of HI and dew point) increase from 1990–2005 to 2071–2080 in all four cities. This result suggests that the heat stress of a day at a given Tmax will increase in a warming climate due to the increase of RH.
Yuan, Jiacan↗
Reconstruction of current profiles from external magnetic and MSE measurements on DIII-D
This work introduces a new current model into the EFIT code for plasma current profile reconstruction. Using this model, edge-localized current density profiles are reconstructed solely from external magnetic measurements. Quantitative comparisons show that edge current profiles obtained with the new current model align closely with those from kinetic equilibrium reconstruction. The new model enables current density reconstruction with fewer diagnostics than kinetic equilibrium reconstruction (Lao et al 1990 Nucl. Fusion 30 1035–49), demonstrating that edge-localized current density information can be obtained from external magnetic measurements only, without the help of kinetic profiles and internal diagnostics, and without using the bootstrap current model. Furthermore, with the constraints of external magnetic and MSE measurements, current profiles in full radius obtained from the new model are in good agreement with the results of kinetic equilibrium reconstruction, which not only improves the efficiency of current reconstruction but also helps avoid possible errors caused by different kinds of diagnoses. Possible applications are also discussed, and a brief analysis of the evolution of the full-radius current density is performed. Noticeable decreases in both the magnitude and gradient of the edge current around the time of ELM bursts are observed. Moreover, analysis of the full radius current density profiles ( ρ N = 0 − 1.0, ρN denotes to square root of the normalized toroidal flux) reveals that as the edge current changes, the inner current also changes following a sinusoidal-like pattern at almost all time slices during four type-I ELMs in discharge 161493. The current evolution in the inner region ( ρ N = 0.2 − 0.6) is synchronized with the boundary region ( ρ N = 0.89 − 1.0), while the intermediate region ( ρ N = 0.6 − 0.89) shows opposite behavior. This sinusoidal-like variations in full-radius current density profile indicates strong core-pedestal coupling, suggesting ELMs significantly affect core plasmas, though current changes manifest differently across radial regions.
EFIT↗
An Exploration of the Equation of State Dependence of Core-collapse Supernova Explosion Outcomes and Signatures
We explore, using a state-of-the-art simulation code in 3D and late-enough times to witness final observables, the dependence of core-collapse supernova explosions on the nuclear equation of state (EOS). Going beyond questions of explodability, we compare final explosion energies, nucleosynthetic yields, recoil kicks, and gravitational-wave and neutrino signatures using the SFHo and DD2 nuclear EOSs for a 9 M ⊙ /solar-metallicity progenitor star. The DD2 EOS is stiffer and has a lower effective nucleon mass. The result is a more extended protoneutron star (PNS) and lower central densities. As a consequence, the mean neutrino energies, final explosion energy, and recoil kick speed are lower. Moreover, the evolution of PNS convection differs between the two EOS models in significant ways. This translates in part into interestingly altered neutrino “light” curves and noticeably altered gravitational-wave signal strengths and frequency characteristics that may be diagnostic. The faster exploding model (SFHo) yields slightly more neutron-rich ejecta and more species with atomic weights between 60 and 90 and a weak r-process. However, this is merely a preliminary study. The next step is a more comprehensive and multiprogenitor set of 3D supernova simulations for various EOSs to late times when the observables have asymptoted. Such a future investigation will have a direct bearing on the neutron star and black hole birth mass functions and the quest toward a fully quantitative theory of supernova observables.
Rusakov, Aleksandr [Princeton University, NJ (Unit↗
Evaluation of native Earth system model output with ESMValTool v2.6.0
Earth system models (ESMs) are state-of-the-art climate models that allow numerical simulations of the past, present-day, and future climate. To extend our understanding of the Earth system and improve climate change projections, the complexity of ESMs heavily increased over the last decades. As a consequence, the amount and volume of data provided by ESMs has increased considerably. Innovative tools for a comprehensive model evaluation and analysis are required to assess the performance of these increasingly complex ESMs against observations or reanalyses. One of these tools is the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool), a community diagnostic and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of ESMs. Input data for ESMValTool needs to be formatted according to the CMOR (Climate Model Output Rewriter) standard, a process that is usually referred to as “CMORization”. While this is a quasi-standard for large model intercomparison projects like the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), this complicates the application of ESMValTool to non-CMOR-compliant climate model output. In this paper, we describe an extension of ESMValTool introduced in v2.6.0 that allows seamless reading and processing of “native” climate model output, i.e., operational output produced by running the climate model through the standard workflow of the corresponding modeling institute. This is achieved by an extension of ESMValTool's preprocessing pipeline that performs a CMOR-like reformatting of the native model output during runtime. Thus, the rich collection of diagnostics provided by ESMValTool is now fully available for these models. For models that use unstructured grids, a further preprocessing step required to apply many common diagnostics is regridding to a regular latitude–longitude grid. Extensions to ESMValTool's regridding functions described here allow for more flexible interpolation schemes that can be used on unstructured grids. Currently, ESMValTool supports nearest-neighbor, bilinear, and first-order conservative regridding from unstructured grids to regular grids. Example applications of this new native model support are the evaluation of new model setups against predecessor versions, assessing of the performance of different simulations against observations, CMORization of native model data for contributions to model intercomparison projects, and monitoring of running climate model simulations. For the latter, new general-purpose diagnostics have been added to ESMValTool that are able to plot a wide range of variable types. Currently, five climate models are supported: CESM2 (experimental; at the moment, only surface variables are available), EC-Earth3, EMAC, ICON, and IPSL-CM6. As the framework for the CMOR-like reformatting of native model output described here is implemented in a general way, support for other climate models can be easily added.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Data-Enabled Fusion Technology (Final Scientific/Technical Report)
Advancing Scientific Understanding in Fusion Energy and Machine Learning This research represented a significant step forward in machine learning (ML) applications for fusion energy experiments. The project integrated advanced data-driven modeling, optimization techniques, and artificial intelligence to enhance the predictive capabilities and operational efficiency of plasma-based fusion systems. Specifically, tasks focused on ML-enhanced diagnostics, operator guidance tools, and predictive modeling helped improve the ability to interpret complex fusion experiments. Key areas of advancement included: 1) data-driven plasma control, i.e., using ML algorithms to optimize experimental conditions and classify plasma behaviors based on historical data; 2) spectroscopy and diagnostics, i.e., applying AI models to extract previously inaccessible insights from experimental spectroscopy data; and 3) configuration mapping and operator guidance, i.e., developing a predictive framework to assist scientists in identifying the most effective experimental parameters, reducing reliance on manual adjustments. By refining these ML-driven techniques, the project contributed to the broader scientific community’s understanding of plasma dynamics and fusion energy viability. Technical Effectiveness and Economic Feasibility The methods investigated demonstrated high technical effectiveness, as reflected in milestones assessing the predictive accuracy, performance, and optimization of fusion configurations. The development of an Operator Guidance Tool (OGT), for example, led to more precise control of plasma conditions by learning from experimental data and offering real-time adjustments. From an economic standpoint, DeFT provided: 1) the ability to reduce trial-and-error experimentation, which lowered operational costs; 2) improved data interpretation methods, which enabled more efficient resource allocation in large-scale fusion research projects; and 3) the automation of key diagnostic tasks, which reduced manual labor and human error, increasing overall efficiency. 13 The final assessments of predictive models and optimization strategies demonstrated that these approaches were scalable and could be implemented across multiple fusion energy research programs. Public Benefit and Societal Impact This project contributed directly to the broader goal of achieving sustainable and commercially viable fusion energy, which had profound implications for clean energy production and climate change mitigation. The integration of AI-driven solutions into fusion research: 1) sped up scientific discovery, accelerating progress towards achieving energy breakthroughs; 2) reduced the cost of experimentation, making fusion research more accessible; and 3) provided a framework for future AI applications in high-energy physics, benefiting adjacent fields like space exploration, material science, and renewable energy. Additionally, by fostering collaborations between AI researchers and plasma physicists, this project promoted interdisciplinary innovation that could lead to broader applications beyond fusion research.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
PINN surrogate of Li-ion battery models for parameter inference, Part II: Regularization and application of the pseudo-2D model
Bayesian parameter inference is useful to improve Li-ion battery diagnostics and can help formulate battery aging models. However, it is computationally intensive and cannot be easily repeated for multiple cycles, multiple operating conditions, or multiple replicate cells. To reduce the computational cost of Bayesian calibration, numerical solvers for physics-based models can be replaced with faster surrogates. A physics-informed neural network (PINN) is developed as a surrogate for the pseudo-2D (P2D) battery model calibration. For the P2D surrogate, additional training regularization was needed as compared to the PINN single-particle model (SPM) developed in Part I. Both the PINN SPM and P2D surrogate models are exercised for parameter inference and compared to data obtained from a direct numerical solution of the governing equations. A parameter inference study highlights the ability to use these PINNs to calibrate scaling parameters for the cathode Li diffusion and the anode exchange current density. By realizing computational speed-ups of ~2250x for the P2D model, as compared to using standard integrating methods, the PINN surrogates enable rapid state-of-health diagnostics. Finally, in the low-data availability scenario, the testing error was estimated to ~2 mV for the SPM surrogate and ~10 mV for the P2D surrogate which could be mitigated with additional data.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Toward Multi-Modal Foundation Models for Inertial Confinement Fusion: Combining Structured Features and Diagnostic Images
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Computer science↗
Development of high-fidelity air handling unit fault models for FDD innovation: lessons learned and recommendations
Not Available
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Diagnosing the representation of surface and layered soil moisture in Earth system models
Surface soil moisture (mrsos) and vertically integrated soil moisture (mrsol) over the top 10 cm should, by definition, be physically consistent in Earth System Models (ESMs). However, an evaluation of nine CMIP6 models reveals substantial inconsistencies: in some models, mrsos and integrated mrsol agree globally; in others, they align only in specific regions; and in a few, they diverge across all grid cells. These discrepancies arise from a combination of factors, including metadata errors, inconsistent variable definitions, or diagnostic sequencing within the model. We demonstrate how such issues can lead to significant biases, even when both variables are present and seemingly well-defined. As model complexity increases and multi-model comparisons become more common, assumptions about variable equivalence may lead to flawed conclusions. This study highlights the need for routine consistency checks, improved metadata standards, and community-wide practices that ensure reliability of derived variables across ESM outputs, particularly in preparation for CMIP7.
Earth system models↗
Fast Diagnosis of Failure Mechanisms and Lifetime Prediction of Li Metal Batteries
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99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
Real-time estimation of the electron temperature profile in DIII-D by leveraging neural-network surrogate models
Control of both the magnitude and the shape of tokamak profiles will be necessary to achieve stable, high-performance plasmas. In order to reject disturbances in real time, feedback-control algorithms rely on accurate real-time knowledge of the plasma state. When diagnostics alone are insufficient, either because they are limited in number or their measurements are too noisy, observers can be used to combine diagnostic data with a response model to provide a better estimation of different plasma properties. An observer has been developed to estimate the electron temperature profile in real time using both diagnostic data from the Thomson scattering system and a model based on the electron heat transport equation describing the evolution of the electron temperature profile. Here, neural network surrogate models are leveraged to help improve the overall model prediction while staying within computation time constraints for real-time use. The observer algorithm is shown in offline tests to produce smooth profiles that are consistent with both the diagnostic data and the electron heat transport equation. When implemented into the real-time plasma control system, this observer will provide valuable information on the electron temperature profile to many potential feedback-control applications.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗