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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Integration of Uncertainty Quantification in a Model-Based Systems Analysis and Engineering Framework

This paper presents a technical approach to improve the confidence in the systems analysis process by integrating Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) techniques within a Model-Based Systems Analysis and Engineering (MBSA&E) framework. The MBSA&E architecture uses system models and multidisciplinary analytical solutions as central artifacts for system design and analysis. The integration of UQ enables engineers to assess and mitigate uncertainties associated with a system model, design parameters, and constraint inputs, leading to more complete design studies and further informed decision-making processes. The proposed approach leverages the strengths of MBSA&E and extends it with a UQ methodology to quantify uncertainties in the input parameters and to trace the uncertainties as they propagate throughout the system model. To demonstrate the effectiveness of an integrated MBSA&E-UQ approach, a case study involving a simplified analysis of a Transonic Truss-Braced Wing (TTBW) concept vehicle is performed. This integration enables a more comprehensive evaluation of system performance and behavior under uncertainty and a more robust approach for system design and analysis. Lastly, the paper addresses the challenges and considerations associated with integrating UQ into an MBSA&E framework.

systems analysis↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Integration of Uncertainty Quantification in a Model-Based Systems Analysis and Engineering Framework

systems analysis↗

DOE OSTI2025

Information theory optimization of signals from small-angle scattering measurements

Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) of particles in solution informs on the conformational states and assemblies of biological macromolecules (bioSAXS) outside of cryo- and solid-state conditions. In bioSAXS, the SAXS measurement under dilute conditions is resolution limited, and through an inverse Fourier transform, the measured SAXS intensities directly relate to the physical space occupied by the particles via the P (r)-distribution. Yet, this inverse transform of SAXS data has been historically cast as an ill-posed, ill-conditioned problem requiring an indirect approach. Here, we show that through the applications of matrix and information theories, the inverse transform of SAXS intensity data is a well-conditioned problem. The so-called ill-conditioning of the inverse problem is directly related to the Shannon number. By exploiting the oversampling enabled by modern detectors, a direct inverse Fourier transform of the SAXS data is possible, provided the recovered information does not exceed the Shannon number. The Shannon limit corresponds to the maximum number of significant singular values that can be recovered in a SAXS experiment, suggesting this relationship is a fundamental property of band-limited inverse integral transform problems. This correspondence reduces the complexity of the inverse problem to the Shannon limit and maximum dimension. We propose a hybrid scoring function using an information theory framework that assesses both the quality of the model-data fit as well as the quality of the recovered P (r)-distribution. The hybrid score utilizes the Akaike information criteria and Durbin-Watson statistic that considers parameter-model complexity, i.e., degrees of freedom, and the randomness of the model-data residuals. The described tests and findings extend the boundaries for bioSAXS by completing the information theory formalism initiated by Peter B. Moore to enable a quantitative measure of resolution in SAXS, robustly determine maximum dimension, and more precisely define the best parameter model appropriately representing the observed scattering data.

Rambo, Robert P. [Science and Technology Facilitie↗

NASA NTRS1994

A numerical analysis of shipboard and coastal zone color scanner time series of new production within Gulf Stream cyclonic eddies in the South Atlantic Bight

Eddy-induced upwelling occurs along the western edge of the Gulf Stream between Cape Canaveral, Florida, and Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, in the South Atlantic Bight (SAB). Coastal zone color scanner images of 1-km resolution spanning the period April 13-21, 1979, were processed to examine these eddy features in relation to concurrent shipboard and current/temperature measurements at moored arrays. A quasi-one-dimensional (z), time dependent biological model, using only nitrate as a nutrient source, has been combined with a three-dimensional physical model in an attempt to replicate the observed phytoplankton field at the northward edge of an eddy. The model is applicable only to the SAB south of the Charleston Bump, at approximately 31.5 deg N, since no feature analogous to the bump exists in the model bathymetry. The modeled chlorophyll, nitrate, and primary production fields of the euphotic zone are very similar to those obtained from the satellite and shipboard data at the leading edges of the observed eddies south of the Charleston Bump. The horizontal and vertical simulated fluxes of nitrate and chlorophyll show that only approximately 10% of the upwelled nitrate is utilized by the phytoplankton of the modeled grid box on the northern edge of the cyclone, while approximately 75% is lost horizontally, with the remainder still in the euphotic zone after the 10-day period of the model. Loss of chlorophyll due to sinking is very small in this strong upwelling region of the cyclone. The model is relatively insensitive to variations in the sinking parameterization and the external nitrate and chlorophyll fields but is very sensitive to a reduction of the maximum potential growth rate to half that measured. Given the success of this model in simulating the new production of the selcted upwelling region, other upwelling regions for which measurements or successful models of physical and biological quantities and rates exist could be modeled similarly.

Pribble, J. Raymond↗

DOE OSTI2025

Graph Neural Networks for Surrogate Modeling of Offshore Floating Platforms

Floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) present an significant opportunity to increase renewable energy generation. However, significant challenges remain before FOWTs can be widely commercialized and deployed. In particular, hydrodynamic loading on the platforms can stress the overall structure, damage the mooring systems, and impact power generation. Studying these loads is difficult and often relies on computationally expensive models or experiments. In this work, we explore the use of graph neural networks (GNNs) to construct flexible, data-driven surrogates for hydrodynamic loads on platforms. We leverage the natural graph-like structure of offshore wind platform designs to enable the GNN model to learn to approximate the loads for different wave conditions and structural designs. We demonstrate potential uses for the surrogate by performing parameter sweeps and ridge analysis on the trained model to identify the impacts of different wave and structural features on the loads.

floating offshore wind turbines↗

DOE OSTI2022

CalWave - Open Water Demonstration - System and Component Overview Content Models and Drawings

Data for the CalWave - Open Water Demonstration, a submerged pressure differential Wave Energy Converter (WEC) Device. Device is moored to the seabed, and the motion of the waves causes the sea level to rise and fall above the device, inducing a pressure differential in the device. The alternating pressure pumps fluid through a system to generate electricity, which is transmitted to shore via bidirectional cables. Documentation and data here includes: System Overview Content Model and Drawings as well as Component Overview Content Model and Drawings.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2024

Utah FORGE 5-2565: Evolution of Permeability and Strength Recovery of Shear Fractures Under Hydrothermal Conditions - 2024 Annual Workshop Presentation

This is a presentation on the Evolution of Permeability and Strength Recovery of Shear Fractures Under Hydrothermal Conditions by United States Geological Survey, presented by Tamara Jeppson. This video slide presentation, by the USGS, discusses the determination of how thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) processes affect the sustainability of fracture networks in geothermal reservoirs. This includes (1) the qualification of rates of change of fracture properties, (2) the parameterization of modes of reaction, (3) the development of micromechanical and empirical fracture models, and (4) extended THMC models for laboratory- and reservoir-scale models. This presentation was featured in the Utah FORGE R&D Annual Workshop on August 15, 2024.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2001

Stochastic Particle Acceleration in Impulsive Solar Flares

The acceleration of a huge number of electrons and ions to relativistic energies over timescales ranging from several seconds to several tens of seconds is the fundamental problem in high-energy solar physics. The cascading turbulence model we have developed has been shown previously (e.g., Miller 2000; Miller & Roberts 1995; Miner, LaRosa, & Moore 1996) to account for all the bulk features (such as acceleration timescales, fluxes, total number of energetic particles, and maximum energies) of electron and proton acceleration in impulsive solar flares. While the simulation of this acceleration process is involved, the essential idea of the model is quite simple, and consists of just a few parts: 1. During the primary flare energy release phase, we assume that low-amplitude MHD Alfven and fast mode waves are excited at long wavelengths, say comparable to the size of the event (although the results are actually insensitive to this initial wavelength). While an assumption, this appears reasonable in light of the likely highly turbulent nature of the flare. 2. These waves then cascade in a Kolmogorov-like fashion to smaller wavelengths (e.g., Verma et al. 1996), forming a power-law spectral density in wavenumber space through the inertial range. 3. When the mean wavenumber of the fast mode waves has increased sufficiently, the transit-time acceleration rate (Miller 1997) for superAlfvenic electrons can overcome Coulomb energy losses, and these electrons are accelerated out of the thermal distribution and to relativistic energies (Miller et al. 1996). As the Alfven waves cascade to higher wavenumbers, they can cyclotron resonate with progressively lower energy protons. Eventually, they will resonate with protons in the tail of the thermal distribution, which will then be accelerated to relativistic energies as well (Miller & Roberts 1995). Hence, both ions and electrons are stochastically accelerated, albeit by different mechanisms and different waves. 4. When the protons become superAlfvenic (above about 1 MeV/nucleon), they too can suffer transit-time acceleration by the fast mode waves and will receive an extra acceleration "kick." The basic overall objective of this 1 year effort was to construct a spatially-dependent version of this acceleration model and this has been realized.

Miller, James A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

TATB thermal decomposition: Expanding the molecular profile with cryo-focused pyrolysis GC-MS

Understanding the molecular composition of high explosives during thermal decomposition is vital for predicting the sensitivity, safety, and performance of explosive materials. The thermal decomposition of 1,3,5-triamino-2,4,6-trinitrobenzene (TATB) has been linked to the formation of furazans through a series of dehydration reactions of the NO2 and NH2 groups on the phenyl ring, along with breakdown into small molecules (≤120 amu). Molecular identification of compounds formed in this transformation of the furazans to light gases has been lacking. To address this, we have applied a pseudo-confined sampling system in a cryo-focused pyrolysis gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (pyGC-MS) system to molecularly identify these intermediates. By design, sublimation of TATB, which has complicated MS analyses of thermal degradation, was significantly reduced and additional compounds were identified with potential structural information. In addition to the known furazan compounds, one of these compounds forms from the loss of oxygen from benzo-trifurazan (F3) and produces an open ring structure that may be the first step in the formation of lower molecular weight furazan breakdown products. The loss of a nitro group from benzo-monofurazan (F1) was also discovered and implicates the formation of oxidizing NO2 gas in the thermal decomposition mechanism. So these findings are vital for understanding the proper heat flow from energetic materials on a molecular level, necessary when measuring enthalpy and developing decomposition models based on kinetic parameters.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Unusual Melting Trend in an Alkali Asymmetric Sulfonamide Salt Series: Single-Crystal Analysis and Modeling

Not provided.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Physical and Engineering Limits of Coupled In situ TEM Experiments

Almost all future energy systems (advanced nuclear reactors, fusion energy system, concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP), and wind technologies) are limited by degradation of key material systems exposed to multiple environmental stressors. The degradation during exposure to high temperatures, radiation, mechanical loading, and chemical attack is often dictated by mechanisms active at the microstructural level. The nature of these mechanisms and the associated variations between sequential and concurrent interplay can be explored if the transmission electron microscope (TEM) is utilized as a toolbox for exploration [1]. One such tool developed at Sandia National Laboratories to couple several of these environments is the In situ Ion Irradiation TEM (I3TEM) [2]. Several studies over the last decade utilizing this tool have shown that the scientific intuition developed over decades of sequential experiments is not always a good indicator of concurrent mechanisms or failure routes. This presentation will highlight the recent and planned additions into the I3TEM facility of a Waviks gas injection system and Raman system, respectively, as can be seen in Fig. 1, permitting environmental degradation from gas species leaked into the pole piece region during quantitative mechanical loading (indentation, monotonic loading, high temperature creep, irradiation induced creep, and high-cycle fatigue); multi-beam ion irradiation (energies ranging from 1 keV to 48 MeV and species from H to Au); laser exposure (20 W and 1064 nm), or various combinations thereof that are already possible [3]. This addition permits the facility to explore both sequential or concurrently the four axes of stressors: thermal, mechanical, radiation, and chemical. This information can be directly coupled to modeling, expediting the refinement and validation of both atomistic and mesoscale models.

degradation↗

DOE OSTI2025

Defining the Shape Density of Cerium Oxide and Titanium Dioxide Aerosol

The “shape density” of CeO 2 (cerium oxide) powder (American Elements, Los Angeles CA) is estimated to be 0.82 ± 0.02 g cm -3 and the shape density for TiO 2 (titanium dioxide) powder (American Elements, Los Angeles CA) is estimated as 0.54 ± 0.01 g cm -3 . The “shape density” is defined as the measured loose density (ASTM 2018 and ASTM 2021) of a powder divided by the ICRP (International Commission on Radiological Protection) default aerosol shape factor (Valetin 2002). This information is used for experimental measurements of the RRF (respirable release factor) and other respirable source term parameter (US DOE 1994) experiments at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The shape density is the input parameter to the TSI Inc (Shoreview MN) AIM (Aerosol Instrument Manager) software for the TSI model 3321 APS (Aerodynamic Particle Sizer) (Figure 1).

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

NASA NTRS1992

Effects of curvature and rotation on turbulence in the NASA low-speed centrifugal compressor impeller

The flow in the NASA Low-Speed Impeller is affected by both curvature and rotation. The flow curves due to the following: (1) geometric curvature, e.g. the curvature of the hub and shroud profiles in the meridional plane and the curvature of the backswept impeller blades; and (2) secondary flow vortices, e.g. the tip leakage vortex. Changes in the turbulence and effective turbulent viscosity in the impeller are investigated. The effects of these changes on three-dimensional flow development are discussed. Two predictions of the flow in the impeller, one with, and one without modification to the turbulent viscosity due to rotation and curvature, are compared. Some experimental and theoretical background for the modified mixing length model of turbulent viscosity will also be presented.

Moore, Joan G.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Base drag prediction on missile configurations

New wind tunnel data have been taken, and a new empirical model has been developed for predicting base drag on missile configurations. The new wind tunnel data were taken at NASA-Langley in the Unitary Wind Tunnel at Mach numbers from 2.0 to 4.5, angles of attack to 16 deg, fin control deflections up to 20 deg, fin thickness/chord of 0.05 to 0.15, and fin locations from 'flush with the base' to two chord-lengths upstream of the base. The empirical model uses these data along with previous wind tunnel data, estimating base drag as a function of all these variables as well as boat-tail and power-on/power-off effects. The new model yields improved accuracy, compared to wind tunnel data. The new model also is more robust due to inclusion of additional variables. On the other hand, additional wind tunnel data are needed to validate or modify the current empirical model in areas where data are not available.

Moore, F. G.↗

NASA NTRS1997

An Extended Kalman Filter to Assimilate Altimetric Data into a Non-Linear Model of the Tropical Pacific

A new implementation of the extended Kaman filter is developed for the purpose of assimilating altimetric observations into a primitive equation model of the tropical Pacific. Its specificity consists in defining the errors into a reduced basis that evolves in time with the model dynamic. Validation by twin experiments is conducted and the method is shown to be efficient in quasi real conditions. Data from the first 2 years of the Topex/Poseidon mission are assimilated into the Gent & Cane [1989] model. Assimilation results are evaluated against independent in situ data, namely TAO mooring observations.

Gourdeau, L.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Finite Element Modeling of the Buckling Response of Sandwich Panels

A comparative study of different modeling approaches for predicting sandwich panel buckling response is described. The study considers sandwich panels with anisotropic face sheets and a very thick core. Results from conventional analytical solutions for sandwich panel overall buckling and face-sheet-wrinkling type modes are compared with solutions obtained using different finite element modeling approaches. Finite element solutions are obtained using layered shell element models, with and without transverse shear flexibility, layered shell/solid element models, with shell elements for the face sheets and solid elements for the core, and sandwich models using a recently developed specialty sandwich element. Convergence characteristics of the shell/solid and sandwich element modeling approaches with respect to in-plane and through-the-thickness discretization, are demonstrated. Results of the study indicate that the specialty sandwich element provides an accurate and effective modeling approach for predicting both overall and localized sandwich panel buckling response. Furthermore, results indicate that anisotropy of the face sheets, along with the ratio of principle elastic moduli, affect the buckling response and these effects may not be represented accurately by analytical solutions. Modeling recommendations are also provided.

Rose, Cheryl A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Integrated Optical Design Analysis (IODA): New Test Data and Modeling Features

A general overview of the capabilities of the IODA ("Integrated Optical Design Analysis") exchange of data and modeling results between thermal, structures, optical design, and testing engineering disciplines. This presentation focuses on new features added to the software that allow measured test data to be imported into the IODA environment for post processing or comparisons with pretest model predictions. software is presented. IODA promotes efficient

Moore, Jim↗

NASA NTRS2004

External and Internal Reconnection in Two Filament-Carrying Magnetic-Cavity Solar Eruptions

We observe two near-limb solar filament eruptions, one of 2000 February 26 and the other of 2002 January 4. For both we use 195 Angstroms Fe XII images from the Extreme-Ultraviolet (EUV) Imaging Telescope (EIT) and magnetograms from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI), both on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) satellite. For the earlier event we also use soft X-ray telescope (SXT), hard X-ray telescope (HXT), and Bragg Crystal Spectrometer (BCS) data from the Yohkoh satellite, and hard X-ray data from the BATSE experiment on the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO). Both events occur in quadrupolar magnetic regions, and both have coronal features that we infer belong to the same magnetic-cavity structures as the filaments. In both cases the cavity and filament first rise slowly at approximately 10 kilometers per second prior to eruption, and then accelerate to approximately 100 kilometers per second during the eruption, although the slow-rise movement for the higher-altitude cavity elements is clearer in the later event. We estimate both filaments and both cavities to contain masses of approximately 10(exp 14-15) g and approximately 10(exp 15-16) g respectively. We consider whether two specific magnetic-reconnection-based models for eruption onset, the tether cutting and the breakout models, are consistent with our observations. In the earlier event soft X-rays from SXT show an intensity increase during the 12-minute interval over whch fast eruption begins, which is consistent with tether-cutting-model predictions. Substantial hard X-rays, however, do not occur until after fast eruption is underway, and so this is a constraint the tether-cutting model must satisfy. During the same 12-minute interval over which fast eruption begins, there are brightenings and topological changes in the corona indicative of high-altitude reconnection early in the eruption, and this is consistent with breakout predictions. In both eruptions, however, the onset of the filament fast-rise phase occurs while overlying cavity-related coronal loops are still evolving from a "closed" state to an "open" state, and our observations of the time evolution of these loops compared to the eruption state in both events are constraints the breakout model must meet. Therefore our findings are consistent with runaway-tether-cutting-type reconnection and fast breakout-type reconnection both occurring early in the fast phase of the February eruption and with both types of reconnection being important in unleashing the explosion, but we are not able to say which, if either, type of reconnection actually triggered the fast phase. We have also found specific constraints that either model, or any other model, must satisfy if correct.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗