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At least 181 records · Page 10

Machine Learning–Adjusted WRF Forecasts to Support Wind Energy Needs in Black Start Operations

Abstract The push for increased capacity of renewable sources of electricity has led to the growth of wind-power generation, with a need for accurate forecasts of winds at hub height. Forecasts for these levels were uncommon until recently, and that, combined with the nocturnal collapse of the well-mixed boundary layer and daytime growth of the boundary layer through the levels important for energy generation, has contributed to errors in numerical modeling of wind generation resources. The present study explores several machine learning algorithms to both forecast and correct standard WRF Model forecasts of winds and temperature at hub height within wind turbine plants over several different time periods that are critical for the anticipation of potential blackouts and aiding in black start operations on the power grid. It was found that mean square error for day-2 wind forecasts from the WRF Model can be improved by over 90% with the use of a multioutput neural network, and that 60-min forecasts of WRF error, which can then be used to adjust forecasts, can be made with an LSTM with great accuracy. Nowcasting of temperature and wind speed over a 10-min period using an LSTM produced very low error and especially skillful forecasts of maximum and minimum values over the turbine plant area.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Rising ecosystem water demand exacerbates the lengthening of tropical dry seasons

Precipitation-based assessments show a lengthening of tropical dry seasons under climate change, without considering simultaneous changes in ecosystem water demand. Here, we compare changes in tropical dry season length and timing when dry season is defined as the period when precipitation is less than: its climatological average, potential evapotranspiration, or actual evapotranspiration. While all definitions show more widespread tropical drying than wetting for 1983-2016, we find the largest fraction (48.7%) of tropical land probably experiencing longer dry seasons when dry season is defined as the period when precipitation cannot meet the need of actual evapotranspiration. Southern Amazonia (due to delayed end) and central Africa (due to earlier onset and delayed end) are hotspots of dry season lengthening, with greater certainty when accounting for water demand changes. Therefore, it is necessary to account for changing water demand when characterizing changes in tropical dry periods and ecosystem water deficits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Facility Radionuclide Emission Points and Sampling Systems

Battelle–Pacific Northwest Division operates numerous research and development laboratories in Washington State. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) contracts to Battelle at Richland facilities on both the DOE Hanford Site and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Richland campus. These facilities have the potential for radionuclide air emissions. The PNNL contract with DOE also includes operations at the PNNL-Sequim campus in Sequim, where there is also the potential for radionuclide air emissions. This document is a periodic update that describes current PNNL facility emission units and sampling systems. The National Emission Standard for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP [40 Code of Federal Regulations 61, Subpart H]) requires an assessment of all emission units that have the potential for radionuclide air emissions. Emission units are registered with the State of Washington. Potential emissions from emission units are assessed annually by PNNL staff. Sampling, monitoring, and other regulatory compliance requirements are designated based on the potential to-emit dose criteria, a graded approach to facility-identified potential impact categories, and regulatory requirements. The purpose of this document is to describe the facility radionuclide air emission sampling program and provide current and historical facility emission unit system performance, operation, and design information. For sampled emission units, the building, exhaust unit, control technologies, and sample extraction details are provided. Additionally, applicable configuration drawings, figures, and photographs are included. For non-sampled emission units, emission estimation and radionuclide source details are provided. Site-wide permits for the lowest potential impact category are described. Deregistered/transitioned emission unit details are also provided as necessary for at least 5 years post-closure/transition. Currently, five emission units are sampled continuously for particulate radionuclides at PNNL managed facilities on the PNNL-Richland campus (3 of the 5) and on the Hanford Site (2 of the 5). Four of these units have sampling systems that comply with the American National Standards Institute/Health Physics Society (ANSI/HPS) N13.1–2011 standard for sampling from stacks and ducts of nuclear facilities, and the fifth is grandfathered and compliant with the older ANSI N13.1–1969 standard. In addition, the PNNL-managed Hanford Site 325 Building EP 325-01-S stack is sampled continuously for emissions of tritium. No emissions sampling is required for the single licensed emission unit on the PNNL-Sequim campus.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantum mechanics based non-bonded force field functions for use in molecular dynamics simulations of materials and systems: The nitrogen and oxygen columns

Accurate Force Fields (FFs) are essential for Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations of the dynamics of realistic materials in terms of atomic-level interactions. The FF parameters of short-range valence interactions can be derived through Quantum Mechanical (QM) calculations on model systems practical for QM (<300 atoms). Similarly, the dynamic electrostatic interactions can be described with methods such as QEq or PQEq that allow charges and polarization to adjust dynamically. However, accurately extracting long-range van der Waals (vdW) interactions from QM calculations poses challenges due to the absence of a definitive method to distinguish between the different energetic components of electrostatics, polarization, vdW, hydrogen bonding, and valence interactions. To do this we use the Perdew–Burke–Ernzerhof flavor of Density Functional Theory, including empirical D3 vdW corrections, to predict the Equation of State for each element (keeping any covalent bonds fixed), from which we obtain the two-body vdW nonbond potential. Here, we extend these calculations to include non-bonded parameters for the N and O columns of the periodic table so that we now describe columns 15 (N), 16 (O), 17 (F), and 18 (Ne) of the periodic table. For these 20 elements, we find that the two-body vdW potentials can all be mapped to a single universal two-body curve, with just three scaling parameters: Re, De, and L. We refer to this as the Universal NonBond (UNB) potential. We expect this to be useful for new MD simulations and a helpful starting point to obtain UNB parameters for the remainder of the periodic table.

Chemistry↗

Hydropower operation in future power grid with various renewable power integration

Hydropower generation may play an increasingly important role in the power grid under increasing contribution of variable renewable sources such as wind and solar. An improved understanding of the changes to hydropower dispatch under future higher VRE grid conditions reveals research gap that should be informed power grid planning and reservoir water releases policies considering multiple other water uses and varying hydrologic condition. Here this study aims to understand the role of hydropower in a changing power grid by employing a production cost model, PLEXOS, across future power system scenarios, planning horizons, and regions. We explore optimized hydropower dispatch to understand its potential role in minimizing the system cost and renewable curtailment. We also examine the sensitivity of hydropower revenue under various grid scenarios of the Eastern U.S. and hydrology conditions. Results indicate hydropower generation follows net load and compensates for the variability of solar and wind generation. Although energy prices are lower during some periods in the future grid scenarios, there is a potential for higher revenue for hydropower by providing both energy and ancillary services during times of stress. Additionally, hydropower revenue is sensitive to hydrology in the SERC region, which we considered as an example. The feasibility of hydropower dispatching with higher ramps between low and high hourly-capacity factors, as indicated in the optimization model, requires further study to consider other water use and ecology constraints.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Improving River Routing Using a Differentiable Muskingum‐Cunge Model and Physics‐Informed Machine Learning

Recently, rainfall-runoff simulations in small headwater basins have been improved by methodological advances such as deep neural networks (NNs) and hybrid physics-NN models—particularly, a genre called differentiable modeling that intermingles NNs with physics to learn relationships between variables. However, hydrologic routing simulations, necessary for simulating floods in stem rivers downstream of large heterogeneous basins, had not yet benefited from these advances and it was unclear if the routing process could be improved via coupled NNs. We present a novel differentiable routing method (δMC-Juniata-hydroDL2) that mimics the classical Muskingum-Cunge routing model over a river network but embeds an NN to infer parameterizations for Manning's roughness (n) and channel geometries from raw reach-scale attributes like catchment areas and sinuosity. The NN was trained solely on downstream hydrographs. Synthetic experiments show that while the channel geometry parameter was unidentifiable, n can be identified with moderate precision. With real-world data, the trained differentiable routing model produced more accurate long-term routing results for both the training gage and untrained inner gages for larger subbasins (>2,000 km2) than either a machine learning model assuming homogeneity, or simply using the sum of runoff from subbasins. The n parameterization trained on short periods gave high performance in other periods, despite significant errors in runoff inputs. The learned n pattern was consistent with literature expectations, demonstrating the framework's potential for knowledge discovery, but the absolute values can vary depending on training periods. The trained n parameterization can be coupled with traditional models to improve national-scale hydrologic flood simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Overcoming the Technical Challenges of Coordinating Distributed Load Resources at Scale (Final Report)

Significant recent research has investigated the potential for loads to provide balancing services to the grid. However, this research has not addressed key issues that may arise when such schemes are applied at scale including: 1. Distribution Network Issues. Coordination of large numbers of loads could result in power flows that violate distribution network constraints; 2. Stability Issues. Certain strategies to control loads can exhibit nonlinearity in the form of period-adding bifurcations and chaos. Other control strategies can potentially synchronize the behavior of large numbers of loads. In both cases, the outcome can be power oscillations and instability; 3. Communication Network Issues. Bidirectional low-latency communication channels between a central controller (or several distributed controllers) and each resource are expensive and likely not necessary for effective coordination. Our research questions were: What network, stability, and communication issues might arise in practice when we coordinate large aggregations of loads? How can we coordinate loads to achieve performance objectives in a cost effective manner while avoiding these issues? The ultimate technical goal of the project was the development of network-aware, communication-constrained, non-disruptive load control strategies with stability guarantees that achieve the performance requirements of typical balancing services at a sufficiently low cost to enable the load aggregator and customer to profit. The overall goal was to establish credibility for load control at scale and contribute to U.S. energy security and environmental goals. The team succeeded in answering these research questions and developing these control strategies. The overall approach was based on the development of three testing environments: a simulation testbed, an experimental testbed (20 physical model houses with window-box air conditioners) coupled with the simulation testbed, and a field testbed (100 actual homes in Austin, TX) coupled with the simulation testbed, which enabled controller testing, identification of issues, controller development, and controller validation. The resulting controller was used to demonstrate fast timescale grid balancing (frequency regulation) by aggregations of physical and virtual air conditioners, with sufficient quality to participate in the electricity market. Cost benefit analysis showed overall benefits to the participating households, load aggregators, and the grid, especially if the control technology was integrated directly into existing programmable communicating thermostats. The project provides a variety of wider benefits. Our technology transfer and outreach activities lead us to choose an open-source licensing commercialization pathway, enabling the project results to be available to researchers, industry, and the public. Furthermore, new grid balancing technologies will increase grid flexibility and will enable higher penetrations of intermittent renewable energy resources, such as wind and solar, to be connected to the grid, reducing its environmental impact, and mitigating climate change to the benefit of society.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

ECAR-8446 Rev 0 MARVEL BPVC Section III Division 5 HBB Fatigue Acceptance Tests

The objective of this analysis is to evaluate the fatigue and creep behavior of 316 SS materials used in the Primary Coolant System (PCS) and Guard Vessel System (GVS) for the first two years of MARVEL reactor operation. The analysis follows the requirements set forth in ASME BPVC Section III, Division 5, HBB-2800, which mandates a fatigue test if operational conditions exceed allowable thresholds. By determining whether the materials meet the HBB-T-1324(a) and HBB-T-1324(b) criteria, this evaluation establishes whether a fatigue test is necessary, as well as the maximum allowable operational hours and temperatures before fatigue testing would be required. The deliverables of this analysis include calculations validating compliance with fatigue acceptance criteria, determination of maximum operational limits for the two-year period, and identification of conditions under which a fatigue test would be necessary. This ensures that the PCS and GVS can operate safely without premature material degradation and align with the design life requirements outlined in SPC-70731. Additionally, this evaluation provides conservative estimates for Service Level B occurrences and their impact on allowable Service Level A hours and temperatures, offering guidance for future operational assessments and potential life extensions beyond the initial two-year period.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

Temperature dependence of nickel ion release from nitinol medical devices

Abstract Nitinol exhibits unique (thermo)mechanical properties that make it central to the design of many medical devices. However, nitinol nominally contains 50 atomic percent nickel, which if released in sufficient quantities, can lead to adverse health effects. While nickel release from nitinol devices is typically characterized using in vitro immersion tests, these evaluations require lengthy time periods. We have explored elevated temperature as a potential method to expedite this testing. Nickel release was characterized in nitinol materials with surface oxide thickness ranging from 12 to 1564 nm at four different temperatures from 310 to 360 K. We found that for three of the materials with relatively thin oxide layers, ≤ 87 nm nickel release exhibited Arrhenius behavior over the entire temperature range with activation energies of 80 to 85 kJ/mol. Conversely, the fourth ''black–oxide'' material, with a much thicker, complex oxide layer, was not well characterized by an Arrhenius relationship. Power law release profiles were observed in all four materials; however, the exponent from the thin oxide materials was approximately 1/4 compared with 3/4 for the black–oxide material. To illustrate the potential benefit of using elevated temperature to abbreviate nickel release testing, we demonstrated that a > 50 day 310 K release profile could be accurately recovered by testing for less than 1 week at 340 K. However, because the materials explored in this study were limited, additional testing and mechanistic insight are needed to establish a protective temperature scaling that can be applied to all nitinol medical device components.

Saylor, David M.↗

Self-Assembled Periodic Nanostructures Using Martensitic Phase Transformations

We describe a novel approach for the rational design and synthesis of self-assembled periodic nanostructures using martensitic phase transformations. We demonstrate this approach in a thin film of perovskite SrSnO 3 with reconfigurable periodic nanostructures consisting of regularly spaced regions of sharply contrasted dielectric properties. The films can be designed to have different periodicities and relative phase fractions via chemical doping or strain engineering. The dielectric contrast within a single film can be tuned using temperature and laser wavelength, effectively creating a variable photonic crystal. Our results show the realistic possibility of designing large-area self-assembled periodic structures using martensitic phase transformations with the potential of implementing "built-to-order" nanostructures for tailored optoelectronic functionalities.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Bridging the Flux Gap: Sap Flow Measurements Reveal Species-Specific Patterns of Water Use in a Tallgrass Prairie

Woody encroachment, the process through which woody plants (trees and shrubs) replace grasses and wildflowers in grassland ecosystems, is occurring globally. Because woody plants use water differently (e.g., rates, soil depths of uptake, and time periods of activity) than grasses, woody encroachment could potentially change the water cycle in grasslands. In order to understand how grassland water use might change with ongoing woody encroachment, we measured continuous rates of water loss in common plant species in a North American grassland. Furthermore, we found that the main encroaching shrub in this grassland used more water over time than grasses or wildflowers. Additionally, this shrub and grasses used a large amount of water at night compared to wildflowers. Finally, we found that different weather conditions had different impacts on how water was used by woody plants, grasses, and wildflowers. We suggest that woody encroachment might reduce the amount of water stored in grasslands, which could alter the composition of grassland plants in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Saturation and decay of an induced scattering instability driven by static field asymmetries in a non-neutral plasma

Experimental data on the saturation and decay of a previously described induced scattering instability are presented. The instability is driven by static background field asymmetries and initially produces a single growing mode (ω 1 , k 1 ). As the instability develops, several harmonically related (ω n =nω 1 , k n =nk 1 ) eigenmodes of the plasma column grow up, resulting in a spatially localized moving potential perturbation with δϕ/T ≈ 20%. After a period of rapid growth, the mode amplitudes saturate and vary slowly for roughly 10 5 ω 1 −1 . This quasi-equilibrium ends with an unusual change in the eigenmode phases, wherein δϕ changes from positive to negative. Plasma heating during this period increases the damping of all modes and rapidly quenches the instability. This instability is of particular interest because the coupling with the field asymmetry produces an enhanced level of radial transport.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Contoured PPM-EMAT Design for Ultrasonic Communication On Metallic Pipe Channels

Ultrasonic guided waves can be used as the carriers of information in ultrasonic communication for pipe or plate channels. Permanent Periodic Magnet (PPM) Electromagnetic Acoustic Transducer (EMAT) can potentially provide unique capabilities for a communication system as a non-contact transmitter and receiver, which can selectively generate different modes of shear-horizontal (SH) waves. The SH wave shows the potentials in achieving high bitrate without error in ultrasonic communication. However, when a steel pipe is used as the communication channel, especially one with a radius comparable to the size of the transducer, no guided wave signal can be excited or detected by existing PPM-EMAT's with flat coupling surface. In this paper, a 3D printed magnet holder is designed which can shape the magnet array. Also, the transmitter/receiver coils are made of flexible printed circuit which can fit over the curvature of the pipe channels. The contoured PPM-EMAT transmitter and receiver can conform to the surface of the steel pipe channel in order to generate and detect torsional waves. Experimental tests of signal transmission with PPM-EMAT on a 160cm-long stainless steel pipe determine the optimal frequency for communication to be 916KHz. Information transmission experimental results confirm the validity of contoured PPM-EMAT for communication with a bitrate of 5kbps.

Huang, Xin↗

Solar/Photovoltaic DC Systems: Information for Electrical Workers and Firefighters

Solar photovoltaic (PV) systems are common and continue to gain popularity. This article helps electrical workers and firefighters understand basic operating principles and hazards of PV dc arrays. The effects of solar radiation and temperature on power output are discussed including; PV-module testing standards; methods for calculating the number of modules in a PV string; some National Electrical Code (NEC) guidelines that are aimed toward improving array safety; dc-array commissioning, periodic maintenance, and testing; arc-flash-hazard potential ways firefighters can work safely around PV arrays; potential risks posed by moonlight and other light sources; some unique dc-system hazards. We also present statistics on PV dc-array electrical incidents and injuries.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

An Integrated Multiscale Experimental-Numerical Analysis on Reconsolidation of Salt-Clay Mixture for Disposal of Heat-Generating Waste (Final NEUP Technical Report)

The overall purpose of this research is to improve understanding of THMC coupling effect on the reconsolidation of granular (or crushed) salt-clay mixture used for seal systems of shafts and drifts in salt repositories. This proposed work is partially motivated by the recent work on the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) that shows the promising sealing capability of clay-salt mixture compared to crushed salt. In particular, primary emphasis is to develop a fully integrated multiscale experiment-numerical study to determine and explain what leads to the superior sealing ability of the clay-salt mixture. These research activities are designed to seek further understanding of (1) why clay additives may enhance the fluid trapping and (2) whether this flow barrier effect may prevail under different combinations of temperature, confining pressure, deviatoric stress and other foreseeable environmental factors. If successful, this enhanced flow trapping ability of the seal provides significant improvement to the seal and repository performance and therefore make the repository safer in the long-term. The experiment component includes microstructural investigation and macroscopic tests on a reconsolidated salt-clay mixture. In the microstructural study, the goal is to (1) characterize microscopic distributions of distinct phases (e.g., clay, salt crystal boundaries, trapped brine, and pore) to examine the connectivity of the pore network inside the salt-clay mixture with different amounts of clay additive and moisture content and (2) analyze multiscale imaging data to reconstruct the polycrystalline microstructures for numerical simulations. Meanwhile, macroscopic tests are performed to analyze how clay alters the failure/creep mechanisms in the salt-clay mixture. Microscopic and macroscopic experimental observations will both be used to calibrate and validate a multiscale model that explicitly simulates the capillary and multiphase flow in the connected pores and the deformation due to the presence of intra-crystalline brine at the pore scale via a new polyhedral discrete element–lattice Boltzmann method (DEM-LBM) coupling model. The pore-scale simulations are homogenized via an upscaling procedure that converts pore-scale information (e.g. force exerted on grain boundary, sliding, pressure-solution) to continuum measures (e.g. Cauchy stress, Darcy’s flow) at each integration point in the macroscopic multiphase TMHC model. This multiscale scheme will allow coupling be- tween high-fidelity simulations of brine-salt-clay interaction and the macroscopic TMHC model. The multiscale model helps the understanding of how the trapped brine inclusion affects the pressure-solution mechanism with the presence of clay and moisture. This work brings new insight into the sealing capacity of salt-clay mixture under elevated temperature over a long period of time - a key to evaluating the potential of salt-clay mixture usage for salt repositories.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Assessing and mapping extreme wave height along the Gulf of Mexico coast

The effect of extreme waves on the coastal community includes inundation, loss of habitats, increasing shoreline erosion, and increasing risks to coastal infrastructures (e.g., ports, breakwaters, oil and gas platforms), important for supporting coastal resilience. The coastal communities along the US Gulf of Mexico are very low-lying, which makes the region particularly vulnerable to impacts of extreme waves generated by storm events. We propose assessing and mapping the risks from extreme waves for the Gulf of Mexico coast to support coastal resiliency planning. The risks will be assessed by computing n-year recurring wave height (e.g., 1, 5, 50, 100-year) using 32-year wave hindcast data and various extreme value analysis techniques including Peak- Over-Threshold and Annual Maxima method. The characteristics of the extreme waves, e.g., relations between the mean and extreme wave climates, directions associated with extreme waves, will be investigated. Hazard maps associated with extreme wave heights at different return periods will be generated to help planners identify potential risks and envision places that are less susceptible to future storm damage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterization of ceramic fuel powder packing fractions to support INFLUX

Triply periodic minimal surface (TPMS)-based structures show marked potential in novel nuclear reactor fuel designs, as their high surface area-to-volume ratio increases the efficiency of heat transfer out of the fuel, enabling safer, more innovative reactor designs. This milestone report addresses the role of dUO 2 powder processing route on the fill behavior of TPMS-based cladding shells to understand and advance the feasibility of manufacturing TPMS-based nuclear fuel forms. dUO 2 powder was processed through either a dry granulation route, varying consolidation pressure, or through milling, varying milling time, milling method and milled size distribution. The lowest tapped bulk densities (TBD), but best powder flowabilities, were obtained when testing unprocessed dUO 2 powder which was prone to self-agglomeration and formed low-density spheroids. The highest TBD and lowest flowabilities were obtained when using powder produced by hammer-milling dUO 2 powder to pass through a 200-mesh sieve, which led to particles with angular morphologies. Powder produced by dry granulation exhibited TBD that varied according to the consolidation pressure used to form the initial pellets and exhibited improved flowabilities when compared to hammer-milled material. Because of the large span of granule sizes formed as well as the irregular shape associated with the granules, a packing fraction of 0.69 was achieved, exceeding the analytical solution for random close packing of mono-sized spheres. TPMS polymer shells were loaded with unprocessed, granulated, and hammer-milled dUO 2 powders, and their qualitative packing behaviors were analyzed using x-ray computed tomography (xCT). TBDs calculated after loading TPMS polymer shells were 10-20% lower when compared to tapped bulk density measurements taken in a glass graduated cylinder, indicating a non-trivial impact on the tapped bulk density of either the TPMS channel size, TPMS channel surface material, powder cohesiveness, or a combination of the two parameters. A metallic zircaloy-4 TPMS shell will be loaded with hammer-milled dUO 2 powder upon receipt of the shell from Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and shipped to Idaho National Labs (INL) for subsequent hot isostatic pressing (HIP) densification experiments.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Modeling Within-Host Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Infection: A Case Study in Ferrets

The pre-clinical development of antiviral agents involves experimental trials in animals and ferrets as an animal model for the study of SARS-CoV-2. Here, we used mathematical models and experimental data to characterize the within-host infection dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in ferrets. We also performed a global sensitivity analysis of model parameters impacting the characteristics of the viral infection. We provide estimates of the viral dynamic parameters in ferrets, such as the infection rate, the virus production rate, the infectious virus proportion, the infected cell death rate, the virus clearance rate, as well as other related characteristics, including the basic reproduction number, pre-peak infectious viral growth rate, post-peak infectious viral decay rate, pre-peak infectious viral doubling time, post-peak infectious virus half-life, and the target cell loss in the respiratory tract. These parameters and indices are not significantly different between animals infected with viral strains isolated from the environment and isolated from human hosts, indicating a potential for transmission from fomites. While the infection period in ferrets is relatively short, the similarity observed between our results and previous results in humans supports that ferrets can be an appropriate animal model for SARS-CoV-2 dynamics-related studies, and our estimates provide helpful information for such studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗