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At least 181 records · Page 10

Insights from the Topographic Characteristics of a Large Global Catalog of Rainfall-Induced Landslide Event Inventories

Landslides are a key hazard in high-relief areas around the world and pose a risk to population and infrastructure. It is important to understand where landslides are likely to occur in the landscape to inform local analyses of exposure and potential impacts. Large triggering events such as earthquakes or major rain storms often cause hundreds or thousands of landslides, and mapping the landslide populations generated by these events can provide extensive datasets of landslide locations. Previous work has explored the characteristic locations of landslides triggered by seismic shaking, but rainfall induced landslides are likely to occur in different parts of a given landscape when compared to seismically induced failures. Here we show measurements of a range of topographic parameters associated with rainfall-induced landslides inventories, including a number of previously unpublished inventories which we also present here. We find that average upstream angle and compound topographic index are strong predictors of landslide scar location, while local relief and topographic position index provide a stronger sense of where landslide material may end up (and thus where hazard may be highest). By providing a large compilation of inventory data for open use by the landslide community, we suggest that this work could be useful for other regional and global landslide modelling studies and local calibration of landslide susceptibility assessment, as well as hazard mitigation studies.

Robert Emberson↗

Clear Lake Volcanic Field Disasters: Creating a Deformation Record Using InSAR to Assess Hazards and Detect Volcanic Unrest in Clear Lake Volcanic Field

Clear Lake Volcanic Field (CLVF) in northern California is at a high threat potential for volcanic hazards. Eruptions leading to increased seismic activity could result in silicic domes, cinder cones, and flows that would be dangerous to the residential areas near the volcanic field. Remotely sensed Earth observations can reveal volcanic processes in the subsurface, which are essential to the timely monitoring of potential volcanic activity. In particular, Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR) and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data capture relative surface deformation at unprecedented high spatial and temporal resolutions. Leveraging C-SAR and DEMs, we conducted interferometric analysis from January 2016 to December 2023. Our results demonstrate 1) the mean surface displacement velocity of the Clear Lake Volcanic Field is measured to undergo 5 to 10-centimeter scale deformation and shows a strong relationship with the surrounding faults, 2) apparent seasonal differences in rates of surface change, and 3) seismic activity associated with the geyser geothermal field has a strong association with cumulative surface displacement, with active fault zones having 2 to 5 cm of additional displacement. Results indicate that deformation is linked to deep pressure sources causing stresses on the surficial environment that should be considered in hazard mitigation. This study provides a baseline of historic deformation, aiding hazard analysts in communication efforts and streamlining decision-making for potential risks to region residents.

remote sensing↗

Creating a Deformation Time Series Utilizing InSAR to Assess Hazards and Detect Volcanic Unrest in Clear Lake Volcanic Field, California

According to the U.S Geological Survey, the Clear Lake Volcanic Field (CLVF) in northern California is at a high threat potential for volcanic hazards. Eruptions leading to increased seismic activity could result in silicic domes, cinder cones, and flows that would be dangerous to the residential areas near the volcanic field. Remotely sensed Earth observations can reveal volcanic processes in the subsurface, which are essential to the timely monitoring of potential volcanic activity. In particular, Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR) and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data capture relative surface deformation at unprecedented high spatial and temporal resolutions. Leveraging C-SAR and DEMs, we conducted interferometric analysis from January 2016 to December 2023. Our results demonstrate 1) the mean surface displacement velocity of the Clear Lake Volcanic field is measured to undergo 5 to 10-centimeter scale deformation and shows a strong correlation with the surrounding faults, 2) apparent seasonal differences in rates of surface change, and 3) seismic activity associated with the geyser geothermal field has a strong correlation with cumulative surface displacement, with active fault zones having 2 to 5 cm of additional displacement. Results indicate that deformation is linked to deep pressure sources causing stresses on the surficial environment that should be considered in hazard mitigation. This study provides a baseline of historic deformation, aiding hazard analysts in communication efforts and streamlining decision-making for potential risks to region residents.

Ivan Tochimani-Hernandez↗

Reducing Risk of InSight Surface Operations Through High-Fidelity Command Sequence Modeling

Simulating spacecraft behavior is crucial for the success of deep space missions, and failure to do so may result in damages to or the loss of the spacecraft. Many previous deep space missions have made use of ground-simulation of sequenced commanding, at speeds far greater than real time, to predict spacecraft state over time through the execution of onboard sequences. This type of modeling can be done at any fidelity, and most missions have opted to decrease fidelity to reduce cost and complexity. However, NASA’s Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport (InSight) mission expanded the scope of ground modeling considerably, which has led to numerous benefits over past implementations. This paper will discuss the process and products that InSight created, as well as the lessons learned from successfully operating the spacecraft on Mars. InSight is the first JPL mission to expand the scope of ground modeling to include the uplink of files from Earth to the spacecraft, rather than making the simplification that any command sequences already exist onboard the spacecraft. The advantages of modeling the uplink of files are numerous. First, it allows for accurate modeling of the onboard filesystem of the spacecraft at all points in time, meaning that all file loads and deletions throughout the mission are modeled at the exact moment they are predicted to actually happen. Second, operators can be more certain that dependencies between sequences are not broken due to the dynamic nature of the filesystem as files are deleted, copied, and uplinked. Lastly, spacecraft filesystem tracking allows for management of sequences prior to uplink, limiting the uplink to only new sequences. The onboard filesystem model became crucial to mission success, emphasizing the importance of investing in accurate models before the need for them arises. During daily tactical operations of a spacecraft on Mars, a model is only useful if the results can be interpreted quickly. In this fast-paced environment, it is essential that command products are modeled and reviewed, errors are found and diagnosed, and new command products are redelivered, remodeled, re-reviewed in a timely manner. It is impossible to review the entire model and therefore the results of the model must be condensed and presented in a fashion that is intuitive, easy-to-navigate, complete, and trustworthy. InSight developed a number of innovative sequence review products that are designed to provide operators with the information required to quickly assess the validity of command products and diagnose potential issues. Together, these products provide a complete, yet succinct picture of the command and sequence model to the operators and facilitate a quick assessment of all sequence command products. This paper will cover planning and sequencing innovations made during InSight surface operations, and will compare the tools, processes, and results to those on other missions. Additionally, the paper will cover the flexible, yet robust nature of the planning and sequencing system architecture and how that flexibility allowed for rapid development and response to the unpredictability of Mars.

Cloutier, Kyle↗

Characterization of Pliocene and Miocene Formations in the Wilmington Graben, Offshore Los Angeles, for Large-Scale Geologic Storage of CO2

The project Characterization of Pliocene and Miocene Formations in the Wilmington Graben, Offshore Los Angeles, for Large-Scale Geologic Storage of CO2 is one of 9 site characterization projects that were implemented as part of ARRA (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act). Data from this project was used to improve resolution of data in NATCARB in the area of study. Data related to this study has already been incorporated in NATCARB Atlas. The Los Angeles Basin presents an opportunity for large-scale geologic CO2 storage. Due to its large population and historical and geologic setting as one of the most prolific oil and gas producing basins in the United States, the region is home to more than 12 major power plants and oil refineries that produce more than 5 million metric tons of fossil fuel-related CO2 emissions each year. GeoMechanics Technologies worked to characterize the Pliocene and Miocene sediments in the Wilmington Graben, offshore of Los Angeles, California, for high-volume CO2 storage. The Graben is located offshore of the Los Angeles and Long Beach Harbor area, making it accessible yet geologically isolated from the nearby Wilmington oilfield and onshore areas. These sediments span more than 5,000 feet of vertical interval with an estimated storage resource of more than 100 million metric tons of CO2. The project team analyzed and interpreted existing geologic data within the region, including detailed exploration well log data and 2-D and 3-D seismic data. New seismic lines were acquired to fill in current data gap areas and two new characterization wells were drilled and logged. This information was integrated with existing geologic interpretations for adjacent onshore areas to help characterize optimal areas for CO2 storage and seals to safely store CO2. Integrated 3-D geologic and geomechanical models for the Wilmington Graben were developed to simulate the fate and transport of injected CO2 in the subsurface and to assess risks. This project contributed to the understanding of injectivity, containment mechanisms, rate of dissolution and mineralization, and storage capacity of the Wilmington Graben and associated analogous basins. This effort also provided greater insight into the potential for offshore geologic formations to safely and permanently store CO2.

.las↗

The Black Mountain asperity - Seismic hazard of the southern San Francisco Peninsula, California

A slip deficit region running 75 km from Black Mountain south of Palo Alto to San Juan Battista is studied to assess earthquake hazard. If this region were ruptured in its entirety, the event would produce a M-sub-s = 6.9 earthquake. The conditional probability of this rupturing in the near future is the highest of any section of the San Andreas fault except Parkfield. This earthquake would rupture 30 km farther northwest and be about 3 times larger than that previously proposed by others (Lindh, 1983, and Sykes and Nishenko, 1984). This constitutes a greater risk to the southern San Francisco Peninsula than previously expected.

Scholz, C. H.↗

Idaho National Laboratory Integrated Multisite SSHAC Level 3: Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment

The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) resides on the eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP), part of the Snake River Plain (SRP) with a complex origin and geologic history of volcanism. Much of the Quaternary (last 2.58 million years) volcanism within 400 km of INL is genetically associated with a major thermal anomaly referred to as the Yellowstone hotspot, which is currently located more than 180 km northeast of INL. Near INL, local volcanic sources include silicic domes near its southern border, and numerous dike-fed basaltic vents of the ESRP, some of which are near or within the INL boundaries. Quantitative probabilistic assessments of screened-in volcanic hazardous phenomena for nine different facility complexes at the INL are presented for a Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3 (SL3) study. The comprehensive, integrated multisite SSHAC study consists of a single regional Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment (PVHA) that pertains to all nine INL facility complexes, with site-specific information developed at each respective area of interest (AOI), referred to as the "INL facility AOI" (Figure ES-1). Hazard products are generated for specified INL facility AOIs for use by multiple stakeholders from different agencies in risk-informed decision-making regarding site selection, operations, and design of nuclear facilities at INL, consistent with U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulatory guidance. The study also serves as the basis for future periodic safety assessments required for existing DOE facilities, such as 10-year evaluations of natural-phenomena hazards. Elements of the INL PVHA including initial characterization, screening, quantitative assessments of eruption and hazard potential, and consideration of facility needs are conducted using the three phases of the SSHAC process: evaluation, integration, and documentation. As per regulatory guidance, the SSHAC framework provided the necessary processes and procedures for the PVHA Technical Integration (TI) team, at three workshops, five formal working meetings and many TI team remote meetings, to conduct initial characterization, screen the volcanic hazards, create PVHA model inputs, exercise those models in the PVHA, consider facility-specific volcanic hazard needs, and perform final hazard calculations. The Participatory Peer Review Panel (PPRP) provided independent oversight and performed process and technical reviews of the PVHA throughout its duration. The study included an extensive New Data Collection and Analyses (NDCA) program developed by the PVHA TI team to reduce uncertainties in hazard-significant elements in the PVHA model. NDCA activities generated 20 reports providing important contributory datasets and results to the project database for characterizing the ESRP. For example, a report compiling the dimensions of ESRP shield volcanoes and lava fields was used to construct volcanic footprints (areas of impact), was compared with data from INL subsurface cores, and was used to validate the results of lava-flow inundation modeling on the contemporary terrain. Another example is the acquisition of aeromagnetic data over INL and its surrounding area, with maps of buried magmatic features (e.g., subsurface volcanoes and swarms of feeder dikes) that informed the PVHA conceptual model of volcanism. The SSHAC evaluation process was used to conduct all elements of the PVHA including initial characterization and screening. Existing data and NDCA activities provided the foundation to develop the tectonomagmatic conceptual model of volcanism for the region of geographical interest in the SRP and Yellowstone hotspot volcanic system, and for considering volcanoes in the western US. Considering Quaternary volcanic sources active during this period, the screening approach identified and evaluated magma compositions, types of eruptive and intrusive phenomena, types of hazardous phenomena, and proximity of sources to INL. The PVHA TI team evaluated 18 types of magmatic sources in terms of 20 potentially hazardous phenomena, resulting in 360 screening decisions. The screening process resulted in 140 screened-in hazardous volcanic phenomena for Quaternary volcanic sources 1) proximal to INL facility complexes in the ESRP (64 basaltic and 54 silicic), 2) regional sources associated with the Yellowstone caldera system and Blackfoot Reservoir volcanic field (7), and 3) more distal sources from thirteen Cascade volcanoes and two volcanoes at Long Valley caldera (CA).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Utilizing 3D Mechanical Earth Models for Calibration and Validation in a Large-Scale Carbon Capture and Storage Project in North Dakota

Conference paper presented at 17th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies (GHGT-17), Calgary, Alberta, Canada, October 20–24, 2024. Three-dimensional (3D) mechanical earth models (MEMs) are pivotal in assessing geological sites for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage and mitigating potential risks associated with storage and injection. The Energy & Environmental Research Center is exploring innovative carbon storage monitoring techniques at a CO 2 storage site near Beulah, North Dakota. These methods aim to provide lower-impact, faster feedback for commercial carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects. The research includes monitoring CO 2 injection using various approaches: 1) an automated, integrated modular monitoring station; 2) time-lapse electromagnetic (EM) field surveys; 3) drone-based surveillance; 4) time-lapse seismic techniques; and 5) advanced wellbore monitoring.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Understanding Earthquake Fault Systems Using QuakeSim Analysis and Data Assimilation Tools

We are using the QuakeSim environment to model interacting fault systems. One goal of QuakeSim is to prepare for the large volumes of data that spaceborne missions such as DESDynI will produce. QuakeSim has the ability to ingest distributed heterogenous data in the form of InSAR, GPS, seismicity, and fault data into various earthquake modeling applications, automating the analysis when possible. Virtual California simulates interacting faults in California. We can compare output from long time history Virtual California runs with the current state of strain and the strain history in California. In addition to spaceborne data we will begin assimilating data from UAVSAR airborne flights over the San Francisco Bay Area, the Transverse Ranges, and the Salton Trough. Results of the models are important for understanding future earthquake risk and for providing decision support following earthquakes. Improved models require this sensor web of different data sources, and a modeling environment for understanding the combined data.

earthquake simulations↗

Digital Tools for the Preventive Conservation of Built Heritage: The Church of Santa Ana in Seville

Historic Building Information Modelling (HBIM) plays a pivotal role in heritage conservation endeavours, offering a robust framework for digitally documenting existing structures and supporting conservation practices. However, HBIM’s efficacy hinges upon the implementation of case-specific approaches to address the requirements and resources of each individual asset and context. This paper defines a flexible and generalisable workflow that encompasses various aspects (i.e., documentation, surveying, vulnerability assessment) to support risk-informed decision making in heritage management tailored to the peculiar conservation needs of the structure. This methodology includes an initial investigation covering historical data collection, metric and condition surveys and non-destructive testing. The second stage includes Finite Element Method (FEM) modelling and structural analysis. All data generated and processed are managed in a multi-purpose HBIM model. The methodology is tested on a relevant case study, namely, the church of Santa Ana in Seville, chosen for its historical significance, intricacy and susceptibility to seismic action. The defined level of detail of the HBIM model is sufficient to inform the structural analysis, being balanced by a more accurate representation of the alterations, through linked orthophotos and a comprehensive list of alphanumerical parameters. This ensures an adequate level of information, optimising the trade-off between model complexity, investigation time requirements, computational burden and reliability in the decision-making process. Field testing and FEM analysis provide valuable insight into the main sources of vulnerability in the building, including the connection between the tower and nave and the slenderness of the columns.

Chaves, Estefanía↗

Harness Thermal Heat Loss Measurement for a Lunar Surface-Deployed LEMS Artemis III Payload

The Lunar Environment Monitoring Station (LEMS) is an autonomous, survive-the-lunar-night seismic suite to be deployed on the Lunar surface by the Artemis III crew and designed to operate continuously for two years. It will see the extremes of the Lunar south pole thermal environment where surface temperatures range from -200°C to +20°C and where nighttime duration is at least 354 hours. Given power and mass constraints, the thermal system is limited to 2.5 Watts of heat during the lunar night. The electrical harnessing named the Signal and Power Passthrough (SAPP) was designed to minimize heat loss while meeting power and signal integrity requirements. To mitigate risk due to uncertainty associated with the harnessing materials, routing, and tie-downs, a flight-like thermal conductance test was performed to measure the heat loss. The test methodology, results, and model correlation are presented.

TVAC↗

Harness Thermal Heat Loss Measurement for A Lunar Surface-Deployed LEMS Artemis III Payload

The Lunar Environment Monitoring Station (LEMS) is an autonomous, survive-the-lunar-night seismic suite to be deployed on the Lunar surface by the Artemis III crew and designed to operate continuously for two years. It will see the extremes of the Lunar south pole thermal environment where surface temperatures range from -200°C to +20°C and where nighttime duration is at least 354 hours. Given power and mass constraints, the thermal system is limited to 2.5 Watts of heat during the lunar night. The electrical harnessing named the Signal and Power Passthrough (SAPP) was designed to minimize heat loss while meeting power and signal integrity requirements. To mitigate risk due to uncertainty associated with the harnessing materials, routing, and tie-downs, a flight-like thermal conductance test was performed to measure the heat loss. The test methodology, results, and model correlation are presented.

Thermal↗

Harness Thermal Heat Loss Measurement for A Lunar Surface-Deployed LEMS Artemis III Payload

The Lunar Environment Monitoring Station (LEMS) is an autonomous, survive-the-lunar-night seismic suite to be deployed on the Lunar surface by the Artemis III crew and designed to operate continuously for two years. It will see the extremes of the Lunar south pole thermal environment where surface temperatures range from -200°C to +20°C and where nighttime duration is at least 354 hours. Given power and mass constraints, the thermal system is limited to 2.5 Watts of heat during the lunar night. The electrical harnessing named the Signal and Power Passthrough (SAPP) was designed to minimize heat loss while meeting power and signal integrity requirements. To mitigate risk due to uncertainty associated with the harnessing materials, routing, and tie-downs, a flight-like thermal conductance test was performed to measure the heat loss. The test methodology, results, and model correlation are presented.

TVAC↗

Regulatory Treatment of Low Frequency External Events under a Risk-Informed Performance-Based Licensing Pathway: Safety Criteria Evaluation

There has been recent progress in the development of risk-informed performance-based (RIPB) design and licensing approaches, which leverage the insights gained from detailed risk assessments and utilize performance-based metrics to permit flexibility and innovation. The RIPB approaches have included the probabilistic treatment of external hazards, including low frequency events that are beyond the design basis. A preceding study conducted in FY21 noted that there are certain challenges to the probabilistic treatment of low frequency external events, which are primarily the result of uncertainty in the hazard curve and the associated plant response to rare, severe events. The current work expands on the previous study by examining the regulatory safety criteria contained within draft 10 CFR Part 53 and associated draft RIPB seismic design guidance. The evaluation identified potential challenges in demonstrating satisfaction of the safety criteria for low frequency external events, with specific difficulties associated with demonstrating compliance with cumulative safety criteria metrics, such as the quantitative health objectives (QHOs). Non-LWRs are expected to utilize the direct calculation of offsite consequence, rather than use surrogates, for comparison to the QHOs, which can be particularly challenging as the previously identified uncertainties are compounded by uncertainties in the response of the neighboring population. The current work details this evaluation and key findings. The central recommendation from this effort is that it is necessary to develop an approach for demonstrating compliance with the safety criteria in draft Part 53 that addresses the key challenges while providing flexibility to applicants.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 35, No. 1, January-June 1994]

Nuclear Safety is a review journal that covers significant developments in the field of nuclear safety. Its scope includes the analysis and control of hazards associated with nuclear energy, operations involving fissionable materials, and the products of nuclear fission and their effects on the environment. Primary emphasis is on safety in reactor design, construction, and operation; however, the safety aspects of the entire fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing, nuclear waste disposal, handling of radioisotopes, and environmental effects of these operations, are also treated. Table of Contents for this issue follows. THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT: 1 Chernobyl Accident Management Actions, A. R Sich; GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 25 The IAEA-ASSET Approach to Avoiding Accidents is to Recognize the Precursors to Prevent Incidents, F. Reisch; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 36 A Review of the Available Information on the Triggering Stage of a Steam Explosion, D. F. Fletcher; 58 Analysis and Modeling of Flow-Blockage-Induced Steam Explosion Events in the High-Flux Isotope Reactor, R. P. Taleyarkhan, V. Georgevich, C. W. Nestor, U. Gat, B. L. Lepard, D. H. Cook, J. Freels, S. J. Chang, C. Luttrell, R. C. Gwaltney, and J. Kirkpatrick; 74 An Analysis of Disassembling the Radial Reflector of a Thermionic Space Nuclear Reactor Power System, M. S. El-Genk and D. V. Paramonov; CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 86 Standards for High-Integrity Software, D. R. Wallace, D. R. Kuhn, L M. Ippolito, and L. Beltracchi; DESIGN FEATURES: 98 Adoption of New Design Features for the Next Generation Nuclear Power Reactors, L. S. Tong; 114 Review of Nuclear Piping Seismic Design Requirements, G. C. Slagis and S. E. Moore; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 128 PC-Based Probabilistic Safety Assessment Study for a Geological Waste Repository Placed in a Bedded Salt Formation, S. A. Khan; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 142 Managing Aging in Nuclear Power Plants: Insights from NRC’s Maintenance Team Inspection Reports, A. Fresco and M. Subudhi; 150 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher; 153 Selected Safety-Related Events, Compiled by G. A. Murphy; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 158 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Queener; 168 Proposed Rule Changes as of Dec. 31, 1993; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 177 Symposium on Radioactive and Mixed Waste—Risk as a Basis for Waste Classification; 177 1995 Incineration Conference 178 Ninth Power Plant Dynamics Control and Testing Symposium; 174 The Authors

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Discovering Blind Geothermal Systems in the Great Basin Region: An Integrated Geologic and Geophysical Approach for Establishing Geothermal Play Fairways: All Phases

Most geothermal resources in the Great Basin region of the western USA are blind, and thus the discovery of new commercial-grade systems requires synthesis of favorable characteristics for geothermal activity. The geothermal play fairway concept involves integration of multiple parameters indicative of geothermal activity to identify promising areas for new development. This project integrated multiple datasets to apply the play fairway concept and assess geothermal potential in a large region of the Great Basin in Nevada. It is therefore referred to as the Nevada play fairway project. This project was a strong collaborative effort between several organizations, led by the Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology at the University of Nevada, Reno, but with key support from the U.S. Geological Survey, ATLAS Geosciences, Inc,, Hi-Q Geophysical, Inc., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Utah Geological Survey, and Innovative Geothermal Ltd. In Budget Period 1 of this project, available data for nine geologic, geochemical, and geophysical parameters were initially synthesized to produce a new detailed geothermal potential map of 96,000 km2 from west-central to eastern Nevada. These parameters were grouped into subsets and individually weighted to delineate rankings for local permeability, intermediate permeability, regional permeability, and thermal potential, which collectively defined geothermal play fairways (i.e., most likely locations for significant geothermal fluid flow). This initial work was aimed at reducing the risks in regional exploration and therefore facilitating discovery of new commercial-grade systems in blind settings, as well as in areas with surface expressions of geothermal activity. Budget Period 2 of the project involved detailed analysis of some of the most promising areas identified in Phase 1. Twenty-four highly prospective areas, including both known undeveloped systems and previously undiscovered potential blind systems, were identified for further analysis. After reconnaissance of these areas, five of the most promising sites were selected for detailed studies. Multiple techniques were employed in the detailed studies, including geologic mapping, shallow temperature surveys, gravity surveys, Lidar, geochemical studies, seismic reflection analysis, and 3D modeling. The goal of the detailed studies was to identify specific areas with the highest likelihood for high permeability and thermal fluids, such that drill sites could be targeted. Three main sets of predictive maps were generated for each detailed study area: 1) play fairway maps, 2) play fairway error maps, and 3) direct evidence maps. Local- and intermediate-scale permeability models were revised to reflect results of the detailed geologic, geophysical, and geochemical analyses. Budget Period 3 of the project involved more detailed geophysical analyses and temperature-gradient (TG) drilling in southeastern Gabbs Valley and northern Granite Springs Valley, deemed the two most promising sites, with the goal of providing preliminary validation of the play fairway methodology. In southeastern Gabbs Valley, the collocation of a favorable structural setting (displacement transfer zone and fault intersections), Quaternary faults, intersecting and terminating gravity gradients, magnetic low, shallow (2 m) temperature anomaly, low resistivity anomaly, and promising geothermometry from nearby water wells provided evidence for a blind system. Drilling of six TG holes defines an apparent geothermal system at this locality with temperatures as high as 124°C at 152 m. This system is blind, with no surface hot springs, fumaroles, or paleo-geothermal deposits. For northern Granite Springs Valley, a favorable structural setting (termination of a major Quaternary normal fault), terminating gravity gradient, magnetic gradient, newly discovered sinter deposits, nearby warm water wells, previously drilled TG holes in the vicinity, and promising geothermometry suggest a hidden system. Drilling of six new TG holes yields temperatures of ~96°C at ~250 m, suggesting the presence of a geothermal system. Major lessons learned in the course of this project include: 1) initially identified sites commonly include multiple favorable structural settings at a finer scale; 2) promising sites in Cenozoic basins cannot be recognized without detailed geophysical surveys; and 3) play fairway analysis should be refined as the exploration program vectors into the most promising sites and finer-scale data are acquired. In addition to producing copious amounts of data, this project resulted in 16 published papers, 10 abstracts, more than 40 presentations across the U.S. and abroad (including several keynote addresses), 2 Masters theses, and 7 media reports.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Regulatory Treatment of Low Frequency External Events under a Risk-Informed Performance-Based Licensing Pathway: Enhanced SPRA-based Margins Assessment

Recently there has been development in the field of risk-informed performance-based (RIPB) design and licensing approaches, which leverage detailed risk assessments and performance-based metrics to allow flexibility and innovation. These RIPB approaches include the probabilistic treatment of external hazards, including low frequency events that are beyond the design basis. However, there are certain challenges that have been identified to the probabilistic treatment of low frequency external events, primarily due to uncertainty in the hazard curve and the associated plant response to rare, severe events. The NRC is currently developing 10 CFR Part 53 that would establish a technology-inclusive regulatory framework for use by applicants for new commercial advanced nuclear reactors. By examining the regulatory safety criteria contained within draft 10 CFR Part 53 and associated draft RIPB seismic design guidance, potential challenges were identified in demonstrating satisfaction of the safety criteria for low frequency external events, with specific difficulties associated with demonstrating compliance with the quantitative health objectives (QHOs). Non-LWRs are expected to utilize the direct calculation of offsite consequence, rather than use surrogates, for comparison to the QHOs, which can be particularly challenging as the previously identified uncertainties are compounded by uncertainties in the response of the neighboring population. The central recommendation from this effort is that it is necessary to develop an approach for demonstrating compliance with the safety criteria in draft Part 53 that addresses the key challenges while providing flexibility to applicants. This paper summarizes key findings, establishes a series of high-level goals, and reviews a newly developed approach to address the major challenges associated with assessing compliance with QHOs, with avenues to demonstrate compliance based on either the estimated consequence or the available margin to event occurrence, while also building on existing experience of seismic margins assessments. The paper also provides examples to demonstrate the application of the approach, as well as recommendations and potential future work.

external hazards↗

Alaska North Slope 2018 Hydrate-01 Stratigraphic Test Well: Technical Results

The Hydrate-01 Stratigraphic Test Well was drilled in December 2018 to confirm that a seismically-identified location within the western Prudhoe Bay Unit might be suitable for extended-duration scientific production testing. The well featured the acquisition of a full suite of logging-while-drilling data, collection of side-wall pressure cores, and installation of distributed temperature and distributed acoustic sensor (DTS, DAS) fiber-optic cables. Evaluation of the logging-while-drilling data confirms gas hydrate is present at high saturation in two target sands of high reservoir quality. Acquired logs and samples enable critical petrophysical information to be compiled for input into production models. The well tested two primary targets: the deeper Unit B is highly favorable due to optimal reservoir temperature and minimal observed risk for direct communication with permeable, hydrate-free water-bearing zones. The shallower Unit D provides a secondary target and opportunity to

Boswell, Ray↗