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DOE OSTI2025

Comparing Compressed and Full-Modeling analyses with FOLPS: implications for DESI 2024 and beyond

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) will provide unprecedented information about the large-scale structure of our Universe. In this work, we study the robustness of the theoretical modelling of the power spectrum of F OLPS , a novel effective field theory-based package for evaluating the redshift space power spectrum in the presence of massive neutrinos. We perform this validation by fitting the AbacusSummit high-accuracy N -body simulations for Luminous Red Galaxies, Emission Line Galaxies and Quasar tracers, calibrated to describe DESI observations. We quantify the potential systematic error budget of F OLPS finding that the modelling errors are fully sub-dominant for the DESI statistical precision within the studied range of scales. Additionally, we study two complementary approaches to fit and analyse the power spectrum data, one based on direct Full-Modelling fits and the other on the ShapeFit compression variables, both resulting in very good agreement in precision and accuracy. In each of these approaches, we study a set of potential systematic errors induced by several assumptions, such as the choice of template cosmology, the effect of prior choice in the nuisance parameters of the model, or the range of scales used in the analysis. Furthermore, we show how opening up the parameter space beyond the vanilla ΛCDM model affects the DESI observables. These studies include the addition of massive neutrinos, spatial curvature, and dark energy equation of state. We also examine how relaxing the usual Cosmic Microwave Background and Big Bang Nucleosynthesis priors on the primordial spectral index and the baryonic matter abundance, respectively, impacts the inference on the rest of the parameters of interest. This paper pathways towards performing a robust and reliable analysis of the shape of the power spectrum of DESI galaxy and quasar clustering using F OLPS .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Calibrating two jets at once

Jet-energy calibration is an important aspect of many measurements and searches at the LHC. Currently, these calibrations are performed on a per-jet basis, i.e., agnostic to the properties of other jets in the same event. In this work, we propose taking advantage of the correlations induced by momentum conservation between jets in order to improve their jet-energy calibration. By fitting the p T asymmetry of dijet events in simulation, while remaining agnostic to the p T spectra themselves, we are able to obtain correlation-improved maximum likelihood estimates. This approach is demonstrated with simulated jets from the CMS detector, yielding a 3%–5% relative improvement in the jet-energy resolution, corresponding to a quadrature improvement of approximately 35%. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Gambhir, Rikab (ORCID:0000000251080448)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cluster infall for mass calibration in the stage-IV era

The outskirts of galaxy clusters present a promising avenue for constraining cluster masses in a way that is robust to the impact of baryonic physics. We assess the accuracy to which the cluster infall regions can be used for cluster mass calibration. Building on previous work, we parametrize the velocity distribution 𝑃⁡(𝑣r,𝑣tan|𝑟,𝑀) of dark matter halos on scales 𝑟 ≥ 5⁢ℎ −1 Mpc as the product of the marginalized distribution 𝑃⁡(𝑣 r |𝑟,𝑀) and the conditional distribution 𝑃⁡(𝑣 tan |𝑣 r ,𝑟,𝑀), calibrating the radial and mass dependence of these distributions in numerical simulations. We then project our model along the line of sight to obtain accurate predictions for the distributions of line-of-sight velocities at a given projected radius and cluster mass 𝑃⁡(𝑣 LOS |𝑅,𝑀), which we can observe with spectroscopic survey data. Furthermore, with our model, we forecast that spectra from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument can constrain cluster masses with subpercent-level precision, comparable to that of stage-IV weak lensing surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

GEANT4 code for DANCE with NEUANCE detector-response simulations

A new GEANT4 model for DANCE with NEUANCE has been developed to account for the change in the DANCE configuration when NEUANCE is installed. In this model, the energy resolution and the shape of the threshold of the individual DANCE detectors are used as an input to provide realistic representation of the measured γ-ray spectra. In addition, the distance from each detector to the target is defined in an input file as well as the physical presence of the a detector in the DANCE and NEUANCE arrays. The azimuthal angle of NEUANCE is also an external parameter to be tuned to represent the measurement. Simulated spectra are compared with measurements with standard γ-ray calibrated sources.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Validation Exercise of a Coarse Finite Element Model of Laser Welds

The objective of this project is to validate low-fidelity models of 304L to 304L stainless steel partial-penetration laser welds for thin sheets. Low-fidelity means that the weld is represented by coarsely meshed element blocks. Here, the hexahedral element size is approx imately half the weld penetration depth. The material behavior of the block is represented by a J2 plasticity model with a Voce hardening function. The source of the data used in this work is an extensive experimental study conducted by Sharlotte Kramer (1528) and published in 2015. Figure 1 shows a cross-section of the weld of interest. The nominal thickness of the sheets is 0.063 in. while the target penetration depth of the weld is in the range of 0.028 to 0.032 in., extending about half the sheet thickness. Uniaxial tension tests provided data for calibration of base material and weld models. Results of two validation geometries were also provided. The principal validation geometry is shown in Fig. 2. It consists of a plate specimen with in-plane dimensions 6 in × 2.875 in loaded in tension. A circular plug with a 1.5 in. diameter was cut from the center of the plate and then welded in place. The details of the welding schedule are given. An important assumption is that the welds in the calibration and validation specimens have similar geometric and material properties as those in the validation tests. The task was to first calibrate models for the base material and the welds and then simulate the validation tests until the point of weld first failure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quench process modeling & simulation in the heat-treatment of critical aerospace components

To manufacture light-weight, advanced metal alloy components for gas turbine engines, quench heat-treatment processes are typically used. By quenching the component from elevated temperatures, the alloy sometimes undergoes a solid-state phase transformation which produces special microstructures with the required, enhanced mechanical properties. However, the quenching can also lead to cracks forming in the component. Addressing the quench cracking problems adds a significant burden to the cost, schedule, and energy demand of manufacture. Currently, optimizing the quench process to mitigate or avoid the cracking is performed largely by trial-and-error, relying heavily on costly experimental (thermocouple)trials to understand the local thermal gradients which cause the cracks to form. In this first part (Phase 1) of the work, high-performance computing is employed to establish the ability of modern CFD (computational fluid dynamics) to alleviate or wholly replace the experimental quenching trials by virtual testing. A Baseline CFD model is defined and its accuracy established to be comparable to(and which usually exceeds) the accuracy of existing HTC (heat-transfer coefficient) based simulation methods of quenching. As a first-principles based approach, “calibration” of the Baseline CFD model is independent of the quench process itself, but instead relies on the accuracy of the underlying (modeled),generic two-phase fluid processes which cannot be currently resolved by CFD for large, industrial-scale cases. A novel, high-fidelity DNS capability has been developed and verified to examine and further improve upon the mean-field closure submodels on which the Baseline CFD approach is based.1

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quench process modeling & simulation in the heat-treatment of critical aerospace components

To manufacture light-weight, advanced metal alloy components for gas turbine engines, quench heat-treatment processes are typically used. By quenching the component from elevated tempera-tures, the alloy sometimes undergoes a solid-state phase transformation which produces special microstructures with the required, enhanced mechanical properties. However, the quenching can also lead to cracks forming in the component. Addressing the quench cracking problems adds a significant burden to the cost, schedule, and energy demand of manufacture. Currently, optimizing the quench process to mitigate or avoid the cracking is performed largely by trial-and-error, relying heavily on costly experimental (thermocouple) trials to understand the local thermal gradients which cause the cracks to form. In this first part (Phase 1) of the work, high-performance computing is employed to establish the ability of modern CFD (computational fluid dynamics) to alleviate or wholly replace the experimental quenching trials by virtual testing. A baseline CFD model is defined and its accuracy established to be comparable to (and which usually exceeds) the accuracy of existing HTC (heat-transfer correlation) based simulation methods of quenching. As a first-principles based approach, “calibration” of the Baseline CFD model is independent of the quench process itself, but instead relies on the accuracy of the underlying (modeled), generic two-phase fluid processes which cannot be currently resolved by CFD for large, industrial-scale cases. A novel, high-fidelity DNS capability has been developed and verified to examine and further improve upon the mean-field closure submodels on which the Baseline CFD approach is based.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cooperative Transmission Expansion Planning Experiment Data and Results

GO WEST is an open-source power grid modeling framework for U.S. Western Interconnection, which allows users to tailor the model depending on their research study and science questions. It covers 28 balancing authorities (BA) and 12 states in U.S. Western Interconnection. GO WEST allows users to select different number of nodes and come up with a simplified network by utilizing 10,000 nodal topology of U.S. Western Interconnection created by Texas A&M University. Users can try and select different number of nodes, mathematical formulations (linear programming vs. mixed-integer linear programming), transmission line limit scaling factors, and hurdle rate scaling factors. GO WEST offers a unit commitment and economic dispatch (UC/ED) module to simulate grid operations on an hourly scale. In this sense, users can calibrate and validate their model versions by comparing model outputs to historical datasets. TEP is an open-source transmission capacity expansion model, built on GO WEST framework. It utilizes linear programming to optimize transmission capacity addition investment on existing lines within GO WEST framework. In this sense, TEP model only increases the thermal capacity of existing transmission lines and does not add new lines to the system, which leaves the topology preserved. TEP minimizes the total cost of the system which comprises the operational cost of satisfying electricity demand (i.e., generation cost), cost of loss of load (i.e., unserved energy), cost of power flow, and cost of new transmission capacity additions (i.e., investment cost). In order to use TEP model, users need to create scenarios with GO WEST framework. In this analysis, outputs from several models are used to create future inputs to GO WEST and TEP models, including GCAM-USA, TELL, CERF and reV. This dataset includes experiment inputs and outputs from three different transmission expansion scenarios (cooperative, intermediate, and individual) for 2019 and 2059. For 2019, a base scenario to illustrate the default (i.e., historical) power grid operations is also included. This study utilizes rcp45hotter_ssp3 scenario from a previous version of GCAM-USA simulations. Sources of the shapefiles in supplementary data are HIFLD Open and U.S. Energy Atlas. Please see the README file for a detailed description of the main and supplementary data.

Capacity Expansion Model↗

DOE OSTI2025

A precise measurement of the jet energy scale derived from single-particle measurements and in situ techniques in proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=$ 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The jet energy calibration and its uncertainties are derived from measurements of the calorimeter response to single particles in both data and Monte Carlo simulation using proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV collected with the ATLAS detector during Run 2 at the Large Hadron Collider. The jet calibration uncertainty for anti-$k_T$ jets with a jet radius parameter of R$_\textrm{jet} = 0.4$ and in the central jet rapidity region is about 2.5% for transverse momenta ($p_{\text {T}}$) of 20 $\text {GeV}$ , about 0.5% for $p_{\text {T}} = 300$ GeV and 0.7% for $p_{\text {T}} = 4$ TeV . Excellent agreement is found with earlier determinations obtained from -balance based in situ methods ($Z/\gamma$ +jets). The combination of these two independent methods results in the most precise jet energy measurement achieved so far with the ATLAS detector with a relative uncertainty of 0.3% at $p_\textrm{T} = 300$ GeV and 0.6% at 4 TeV. The jet energy calibration is also derived with the single-particle calorimeter response measurements separately for quark- and gluon-induced jets and furthermore for jets with R jet varying from 0.2 to 1.0 retaining the correlations between these measurements. Differences between inclusive jets and jets from boosted top-quark decays, with and without grooming the soft jet constituents, are also studied.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modular Hydronic Room Conditioning System (CRADA NFE-24-10120 Final Report)

This project presents the development and validation of high-fidelity numerical models for fin-tube heat exchangers to enable accurate performance prediction and informed design optimization. The modeling framework integrates detailed geometric specifications, thermophysical property data, and system-level constraints to simulate the heat exchanger’s behavior under a range of operating conditions. The model is calibrated using real-world product specifications and validated against experimental data collected from controlled cooling and heating tests. In cooling mode, the model captures the overall trends in capacity and outlet air temperature but tends to underpredict latent effects, especially at lower air flow rates. In heating mode, the simulation consistently overestimates both the thermal capacity and outlet air temperature, indicating the need for refinement in air-side heat transfer assumptions. Despite these deviations, the model provides a solid foundation for optimization, allowing key design variables to be tuned within physical and performance-based constraints. This research advances the ability to simulate, validate, and optimize fin-tube heat exchanger designs with greater confidence and efficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modular Hydronic Room Conditioning System

This project presents the development and validation of high-fidelity numerical models for fin-tube heat exchangers to enable accurate performance prediction and informed design optimization. The modeling framework integrates detailed geometric specifications, thermophysical property data, and system-level constraints to simulate the heat exchanger’s behavior under a range of operating conditions. The model is calibrated using real-world product specifications and validated against experimental data collected from controlled cooling and heating tests. In cooling mode, the model captures the overall trends in capacity and outlet air temperature but tends to underpredict latent effects, especially at lower air flow rates. In heating mode, the simulation consistently overestimates both the thermal capacity and outlet air temperature, indicating the need for refinement in air-side heat transfer assumptions. Despite these deviations, the model provides a solid foundation for optimization, allowing key design variables to be tuned within physical and performance-based constraints. This research advances the ability to simulate, validate, and optimize fin tube heat exchanger designs with greater confidence and efficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development and Validation of a Process Model and Open-Source Process Simulator for Microalgae-Based Tertiary Phosphorus Recovery

Microalgae-based tertiary wastewater treatment has the potential to meet stringent effluent phosphorus limits, with the added benefit of producing a marketable feedstock. However, the lack of validated mechanistic models and their implementation in process simulators have limited the adoption of this technology. In this study, an updated lumped pathway metabolic model (Phototrophic-Mixotrophic Process Model, PM 2 ), including both photoautotrophic and heterotrophic metabolisms of microalgae, was developed to predict effluent phosphorus concentration and biomass yield in response to dynamic influent and varying environmental conditions. The model was implemented in QSDsan – an open-source, Python-based design and simulation platform – for robust simulation under uncertainty. A global sensitivity analysis was performed to prioritize model parameters for calibration. The model was then calibrated and validated using batch experimental data and 45 days of continuous online monitoring data from a full-scale (568 m 3 ·d -1 ) microalgae-based tertiary wastewater treatment plant (EcoRecover process). In particular, along with dynamic influent composition, temperature and light intensity data with diel variation were provided as model inputs to reflect the microalgal behavior under day-night cycling. Overall, the QSDsan-based microalgae process simulator was able to predict effluent phosphorus within 0.02–0.04 mg-P·L -1 , while also capturing the general trends of state variables according to nutrient availability.

Lumped pathway metabolic model↗

DOE OSTI2026

Process‐Oriented Calibration of a Turbulence Scheme in the DOE's Global Storm‐Resolving Model Using Machine Learning

A process‐oriented calibration framework is developed for the Simplified Higher‐Order Closure (SHOC) turbulence scheme in DOE's Simple Cloud Resolving E3SM Atmospheric Model (SCREAM). This framework leverages machine learning surrogates and observational constraints to efficiently calibrate SHOC adjustable parameters across two convective regimes: clear‐sky dry convective boundary layer and fair‐weather shallow cumulus clouds from ARM observations. We use perturbed‐parameter ensembles of a doubly periodic version of SCREAM to train surrogates and apply Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling guided by cost functions based on benchmarking large‐eddy simulations and observations to identify optimized parameter sets that perform well in both regimes. The calibrated SHOC parameters substantially improve boundary‐layer turbulence and cloud boundaries, and modeled cloud fraction and radiative effects align better with observations than the default. These results demonstrate that combining multiple process‐specific convective regimes with machine‐learning surrogates can reduce parametric uncertainties and yield a model more faithful to cloud–turbulence interactions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Computational Workflow of Elucidating Viral Impact on Mediating Microbial Response to In-situ Experimental Warming: Bridging microbial modeling to carbon and mineral modeling

Viruses are abundant in soils and shape microbial communities in ways that can potentially influence ecosystem processes, yet their contributions to carbon cycling and mineral transformations remain poorly understood. Here we present a multi-phase framework that links virus-host interactions to soil biogeochemistry by combining ecological simulations, genome- and community-scale metabolic modeling, and statistical and machine-learning analyses. We first calibrated microbial abundance profiles under explicit infection scenarios to capture how viral pressure alters community structure, then explored alternative interaction strategies, including kill-the-winner, piggyback-the-winner, and mixed lytic-lysogenic modes, through forward simulations. These ecological shifts were translated into metabolic consequences using exchange fluxes summarized into biologically meaningful categories, while integrated statistical and machine-learning screens elevated subtle but consistent signals. Application of this framework revealed that viral infections shift the balance between organic and inorganic fluxes, redirecting metabolism from diffuse organic transformations toward inorganic pools such as protons and CO 2 , directly linking viral regulation to respiration and soil carbon balance. The roll-up analysis also isolated perturbations in critical mineral ions, including magnesium, manganese, zinc, and copper, which serve as essential enzymatic cofactors. In piggyback-the-winner scenarios, uptake of these ions was strongly suppressed. Contrasting viral strategies produced distinct community structures and metabolic outcomes, from broad suppression under kill-the-winner dynamics to dramatic redistributions under high-lytic and high-gain lysogenic regimes that collapsed vulnerable microbial populations while promoting opportunists. Together, these results provide a tractable path to trace viral perturbations from host abundance shifts to metabolic flux adjustments and ecosystem-scale processes, offering a practical way to include viruses in earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantum Information for Fusion Energy Sciences (Final Technical Report)

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantum Information for Fusion Energy Sciences (Final Technical Report)

The simulation of plasma dynamics is a critical area of Fusion Energy Sciences (FES) due to it’s usefulness in predicting, controlling, and confining plasmas in the context of potential fusion reactors. The simulation of plasmas is a computationally difficult problem in both classical and quantum physics, motivating investigation into the potential of quantum computers to simulate these systems. This project took several concrete steps towards this goal by developing tools for improving the control, characterization, and calibration of quantum gates on a superconducting quantum computer, developing error suppression and mitigation tools to reduce errors on the quantum computer, and utilizing these advancements to simulate reduced models of plasma dynamics on the quantum computer. In order to efficiently simulate plasma physics, an optimal control method which synthesizes, directly at the pulse level, any quantum gate on qubit and qutrit systems was developed. Using four superconducting transmon quantum processors at Rigetti and LLNL, it was demonstrated that any arbitrary quantum gate on qubits and qutrits could be implemented with high fidelity, leading to a significantly reduced length of a gate sequence. A problem of interest in FES is the nonlinear optical process of laser pulse compression within a plasma. Since quantum physics is linear, simulating nonlinear operations is not naturally feasible on a quantum computer, however it is possible to simulated a quantized version of the nonlinear process. A quantization approach to convert nonlinear wave-wave interaction problems to Hamiltonian simulation problems was developed and demonstrated using two qubits on a Rigetti device. In this experiment, a number of error suppression and mitigation techniques were investigated to determine how best to utilize the finite quantum resources. This study provides an example of how plasma problems may be solved on near-term, noisy quantum computing platforms and identified a promising set of techniques. Building on the insights of these experiments, the investigation turned to linear electron-plasma wave physics. A connection was identified between a local one-dimensional lattice spin model and linear wave phenomena, allowing a plasma physics problem to be efficiently mapped to the quantum computer. In this framework, reflection and transmission of plasma waves at a sharp boundary was studied, as well as the propagation of waves through an inhomogeneous plasma medium. In addition to the suite of error suppression and mitigation techniques developed, this experiment introduced the use of a digital-analog gate scheme designed to efficiently simulate the plasma Hamiltonian. With hardware available at the conclusion of the project, simulation at the scale of 9 qubits and 15 timesteps (60 entangling layers) was achieved.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Calibrating Bayesian generative machine learning for Bayesiamplification

Recently, combinations of generative and Bayesian deep learning have been introduced in particle physics for both fast detector simulation and inference tasks. These neural networks aim to quantify the uncertainty on the generated distribution originating from limited training statistics. The interpretation of a distribution-wide uncertainty however remains ill-defined. We show a clear scheme for quantifying the calibration of Bayesian generative machine learning models. For a Continuous Normalizing Flow applied to a low-dimensional toy example, we evaluate the calibration of Bayesian uncertainties from either a mean-field Gaussian weight posterior, or Monte Carlo sampling network weights, to gauge their behaviour on unsteady distribution edges. Well calibrated uncertainties can then be used to roughly estimate the number of uncorrelated truth samples that are equivalent to the generated sample and clearly indicate data amplification for smooth features of the distribution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Towards modelling AR Sco: calibration – reproducing high-energy pulsar emission and testing convergence to Aristotelian electrodynamics

In recent years, kinetic simulations have been crucial to further our understanding of pulsar electrodynamics. Yet, due to the large-scale separation between the gyro-period and the stellar rotation period, resolving the particle gyration has been computationally unfeasible for realistic pulsar parameters. The main aim of this work is comparing our gyro-phase-resolved model with a gyro-centric pulsar model, where our model solves the general equations of motion with included radiation reaction using a higher order numerical solver with adaptive time-steps. Specifically, we aim to (i) reproduce a pulsar’s high-energy emission maps, namely one with 10 per cent of the surface B-field strength of Vela, and the spectra produced by an independent gyro-centric pulsar emission model; and (ii) test convergence of these results to the radiation-reaction limit of Aristotelian electrodynamics. (iii) Additionally, we identify the effect that a large $E_{\parallel }$-field has on the trajectories and radiation calculations. We find that we can reproduce the curvature radiation emission maps and spectra well, using 10 per cent field strengths of the Vela pulsar and injecting our particles at a higher altitude in the magnetosphere. Using sufficiently large $E_{\parallel }$-fields, our numeric results converge to the analytic radiation-reaction limit trajectories. Additionally, we illustrate the importance of accounting for the $\mathbf {E}\times \mathbf {B}$-drift in the particle trajectories and radiation calculations, validating the Harding and collaborators’ model approach. Lastly, we found that our model deals very well with the high-radiation-reaction and high-field regimes present in pulsars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗