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DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Urbanization on Convection, Lightning, and Precipitation Over the Houston Metropolitan Area: Case Study Simulation From the TRACER Campaign

This study investigates the effects of urbanization, specifically land use change and anthropogenic emissions (AE), on convection, lightning, and surface precipitation for a case of summertime sea‐breeze convection observed over the Houston metropolitan area. The unique capabilities of the NASA‐Unified Weather Research and Forecasting model allows us to conduct a series of sensitivity experiments with complex configurations, in particular including multi‐year land model spin‐up simulations, treatment of aerosols and their precursors, and explicit cloud charging and lightning. The simulation results show that urban land use primarily alters the temporal evolution of convection, lightning, and surface precipitation, leading to late afternoon thunderstorm development. The decrease in latent heat flux from the land surface caused by urbanization weakens convection in the early afternoon, while a condition suitable for convection development is maintained in the late afternoon due to less stabilization of the lower troposphere by the weaker convection development and high sensible heat flux from the surface. On the other hand, anthropogenic aerosols directly enhance convection, lightning, and surface precipitation by increasing convective updrafts due to the aerosol‐induced convective invigoration. The combined effects of urban land use and AE lead to even stronger thunderstorms in the late afternoon, mostly consistent with observations. These results indicate that urbanization increases the probability of late afternoon thunderstorms over the Houston area during the summer season. Advanced weather forecasting models that incorporate these urbanization effects might support sustainable urban planning to better mitigate the impacts of urbanization on local weather and public safety.

Iguchi, T. [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (U↗

DOE OSTI2025

Using ARM Observations to Evaluate Process-Interactions in MCS Simulations Across Scales (Final Progress Report)

This project, funded by DOE Atmospheric System Research (DE-SC0020050), focused on improving the representation of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in numerical weather and climate models by leveraging high-resolution observations from the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program. The research aimed to evaluate model sensitivities to grid spacing, microphysics, and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes, with a particular emphasis on improving convection parameterization for high-resolution modeling. Findings from this work highlight several key advancements. Model validation against ARM radar wind profiler data from the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and Manaus (MAO) sites revealed systematic biases in simulated convective mass flux profiles, leading to the development of an observationally constrained evaluation framework for diagnosing and improving model performance. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the representation of Amazonian MCSs was highly dependent on PBL scheme selection, while mid-latitude MCSs were more strongly influenced by microphysics parameterizations. A series of high-resolution WRF simulations, ranging from 4 km to 125 m grid spacing, provided insight into the behavior of convective drafts across scales. While updraft properties converged at sub-kilometer resolutions, biases in downdraft intensity persisted even at the finest resolution tested, emphasizing the need for further refinements in model physics. Additionally, comparisons of MCS vertical structures between mid-latitude and tropical environments revealed stronger updrafts and larger mass flux in mid-latitude MCSs, providing critical insights for improving climate model representations of storm-scale dynamics. The project’s findings have already contributed to advancing numerical modeling capabilities, particularly in WRF, MPAS, ICON, and DOE’s SCREAM model, by refining how convective processes are represented in high-resolution climate simulations. Results were disseminated through peer-reviewed publications, conference presentations, and ARM/ASR Research Highlights, engaging the broader scientific community. The project also provided valuable training opportunities for two postdoctoral researchers, who played central roles in model development, analysis, and dissemination of results. Their work contributed to several publications and conference presentations, helping prepare them for careers in atmospheric modeling. By improving the simulation of MCSs, this research directly supports the development of next-generation climate models capable of more accurately representing extreme precipitation and convective processes. The insights gained will inform future improvements in convective parameterization and guide the design of high-resolution weather and climate simulations, ultimately enhancing the reliability of climate projections and weather forecasts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Weathering of chlorite from grain to watershed: The role and distribution of oxidation reactions in the subsurface

The reaction mechanism of weathering of chlorite, an important rock-forming phyllosilicate, is not well understood in natural settings. Here, in this work we investigated the weathering of Fe-rich chlorite from deep protolith to saprock to soil across a small shale-underlain watershed in the Appalachian Mountains, USA (Shale Hills). We found that oxidation of Fe(II) in chlorite always occurs prior to dissolution of the interlayers of the mineral. The oxidation of pyrite and chlorite commence near the water table across narrow depth intervals under the upper-catchment ridges, but well below the water table across wide depth intervals under the valley. We hypothesize that these patterns can be explained by hydrological and geochemical differences between the ridge and the valley: oxygenated water descends sub-vertically (1D flow) under the ridge, while under the valley, oxygen-depleted water moves upward to the stream and laterally out of the watershed in the subsurface (3D flow). Geochemical and mineralogical characterization indicates that the transformation of Fe-rich chlorite at Shale Hills is initiated by the oxidation of Fe(II). Next, the interlayer hydroxide sheet dissolves to form hydroxy-interlayered vermiculite and then vermiculite. During the transformation, Mg and Fe are released into solution and Fe is reprecipitated as goethite in pore space. Delivery of oxygen to the deep subsurface by infiltration of meteoric water is thought to control the initial transformation of chlorite at Shale Hills. It is possible that weathering of many Fe(II)-rich minerals is initiated by oxidation as mediated by rates of subsurface oxygen delivery.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Weather on Other Worlds. V. The Three Most Rapidly Rotating Ultra-cool Dwarfs

We present the discovery of rapid photometric variability in three ultra-cool dwarfs from long-duration monitoring with the Spitzer Space Telescope. The T7, L3.5, and L8 dwarfs have the shortest photometric periods known to date: 1.080{sub −0.005}{sup +0.004} hr, 1.14{sub −0.01}{sup +0.03} hr, and 1.23{sub −0.01}{sup +0.01} hr, respectively. We confirm the rapid rotation through moderate-resolution infrared spectroscopy, which reveals projected rotational velocities between 79 and 104 km s{sup −1}. We compare the near-infrared spectra to photospheric models to determine the objects’ fundamental parameters and radial velocities. We find that the equatorial rotational velocities for all three objects are ≳100 km s{sup −1}. The three L and T dwarfs reported here are the most rapidly spinning and likely the most oblate field ultra-cool dwarfs known to date. Correspondingly, all three are excellent candidates for seeking auroral radio emission and net optical/infrared polarization. As of this writing, 78 L-, T-, and Y-dwarf rotation periods have now been measured. The clustering of the shortest rotation periods near 1 hr suggests that brown dwarfs are unlikely to spin much faster.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Drop size distribution broadening mechanisms in a bin microphysics Eulerian model

In this study, processes that broaden drop size distributions (DSDs) in Eulerian models with two-moment bin microphysics are analyzed. Numerous tests are performed to isolate the effects of different physical mechanisms that broaden DSDs in two- and three-dimensional Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations of an idealized ice-free cumulus cloud. Additionally, sensitivity of these effects to modifying horizontal and vertical model grid spacings is also examined. As expected, collision-coalescence is a key process broadening the modeled DSDs. In-cloud droplet activation also contributes substantially to DSD broadening, whereas evaporation has only a minor effect and sedimentation has little effect. Cloud dilution (mixing of cloud-free and cloudy air) also broadens the DSDs considerably, whether or not it is accompanied by evaporation. This mechanism involves the reduction of droplet concentration from dilution along the cloud’s lateral edges, leading to locally high supersaturation and enhanced drop growth when this air is subsequently lifted in the updraft. DSD broadening ensues when the DSDs are mixed with those from the cloud core. Decreasing the horizontal and vertical model grid spacings from 100 m to 30 m has limited impact on the DSDs. However, when these physical broadening mechanisms (in-cloud activation, collision-coalescence, dilution, etc.) are turned off, there is a reduction of DSD width by up to ~20-50% when the vertical grid spacing is decreased from 100 m to 30 m, consistent with effects of artificial broadening from vertical numerical diffusion. Nonetheless, this artificial numerical broadening appears to be relatively unimportant overall for DSD broadening when physically based broadening mechanisms in the model are included for this cumulus case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Preliminary Screening of Features, Events, and Processes for an Arctic-Focused Climate Intervention Performance Assessment

Geoengineering, the deliberate large-scale intervention in Earth's climate system, holds significant potential in the rapidly warming Arctic, where temperatures currently rise at more than twice the global average, accelerating ice sheet and permafrost melt. This contributes to global sea-level rise and releases methane, a potent greenhouse gas. Strategies like solar radiation management (SRM) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) could mitigate these effects; for instance, SRM techniques aim to reflect a portion of the sun's energy back into space, potentially slowing ice melt and stabilizing permafrost. However, geoengineering in the Arctic faces challenges, including potential unintended consequences on the fragile ecosystem, disruption of local weather patterns, and impacts on indigenous communities. Effective governance requires robust international cooperation, environmental impact assessments, and regulatory frameworks. Despite these challenges, geoengineering's potential benefits make it a critical research area. This report explores application of the Performance Assessment (PA) methodology to Arctic Climate Intervention, providing an initial screening of relevant features, events, and processes (FEPs). At the core of the PA approach is the identification and evaluation of FEPs that could impact the performance of the intervention scheme. Here we provide an initial screening of FEPs to consider in the application of PA to Arctic Climate Intervention.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

COMPASS-FME Synoptic Sites Level 2 Sensor Data v2-1

This is the version 2-1 Level 2 (L2) data release for COMPASS-FME environmental sensors located at our synoptic field sites. COMPASS-FME is studying sites in two distinct regions, the Chesapeake Bay and the Western Lake Erie Basin. We established the network at seven "synoptic" (observational) sites along the Chesapeake Bay and Lake Erie coastlines, collectively generating over three million observations per month, to track and comprehend environmental changes where land and water intersect. Additionally, the two regions provide an interesting contrast of saltwater and freshwater coasts that allow us to differentiate the impacts of inundation and coastal water chemistries in two nationally important coastal systems. Level 2 (L2) data consist of sensor observations from the COMPASS-FME synoptic sites, TEMPEST, and DELUGE. Compared to the L1 data, these are more consistent (always 15-minute timestamps for the entire year); better QA/QC’d (out of bounds, out of service, and extreme outlier values are removed); and more complete, with a gap-filled time series available alongside the main observations, and additional derived (calculated) variables. L2 data are intended to be rapidly and easily usable in analyses and simulations. However, algorithmic outlier identification always carries the risk of removing valid data, and Level 1 data may be more suitable for analyses that focus on variability or extreme events. This dataset includes: - An overall dataset README file that describes the current version, gives citation and contact information, etc. - Site- and year-specific folders, each holding variable-specific Parquet (a high performance, space efficient format; see https://parquet.apache.org) data files for each site and plot in that year. - Metadata files within each site-year folder provide full information on data units, expected ranges, contact information, detailed flood times, as well as a general description of the site. - Environmental sensor types that appear in the data files include weather (ClimaVUE50, CS, RM Young, and LI instruments in the graphs below); soil conditions (TEROS12); soil redox state (Redox); groundwater variables (AquaTROLL200 and AquaTROLL600); open water sondes (Exo); tree sap velocity (Sapflow); and system voltage and state (Datalogger). Data are reported every 15 minutes. Data files are in Apache Parquet, a high performance, space efficient format for tabular data. These files can be read using R's `arrow` package (https://arrow.apache.org/docs/r/), with similar tools available in other languages. Please see v2-1 L2 Sensor Package QStart.pdf for detailed information on data package structure, temporal coverage, and versioning.

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATU↗

DOE OSTI2026

ARM Radiosondes for SNPP/JPSS Validation Field Campaign Report

This field campaign extension has been a coordinated effort involving the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility, the University of Wisconsin at Madison, and the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) project to validate NOAA Unique Combined Atmospheric Processing System (NUCAPS) temperature and moisture sounding products from the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) and the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) instruments on board the NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 satellite platforms. In this arrangement, funding for radiosondes and balloons was provided by the JPSS project to ARM. These radiosondes were launched coincident with NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 satellite overpasses at the ARM field sites at Eastern North Atlantic (ENA), North Slope Alaska (NSA), and Southern Great Plains (SGP). Combined with other ARM data, an assessment of the radiosonde data quality was performed and post-processing corrections applied. The dedicated radiosondes were integrated into the NOAA Products Validation System (NPROVS+), which collocated the radiosondes with satellite products (NOAA, National Aeronautics and Space Administration [NASA], European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites [EUMETSAT], Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite [GOES], Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate [COSMIC]) and numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts for use in product assessment and algorithm development. This work is a part of the NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 satellite retrieval validation efforts and provides critical accuracy assessments of the temperature and water vapor soundings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Regime Characterization of Offshore Wind Resource Using Unsupervised Learning

Predictability of wind resource conditions is critical for offshore wind design and operations. While many studies of extreme wind conditions focus on specific events such as low-level jets or ramps, these rely on threshold definitions that limit generality. Here we present a data-driven framework that combines principal component analysis (PCA), self-organizing maps (SOM), and k-means clustering to classify wind resource conditions as typical and anomalous from climatological data. Anomalies are defined not by fixed thresholds but by flagging samples located far from SOM node centers inside the baseline SOM structure. This reframes extremes as rare ebents and hence, likely difficult to anticipate by numerical weather prediction models. We applied this approach to 23 years (2000–2022) of hourly profiles from the NOW-23 hindcast model at the Humboldt Wind Energy Area. Classification is conducted on a feature space consisting of 10 m wind speed and direction, bulk shear and veer across 30–270 m, and a low-level jet index. Dimensionality reduction is achieved through PC. A 2 × 3 OM lattice trained on the PCA vectors identified six baseline regimes spanning weak to strong flow states. High quantization-error profiles are identified and re-clustered into four anomalous regimes. The baseline regimes exhibited clear seasonal and diurnal cycles. Meanwhile, the anomalous regimes represented <10 % of all hours but showed distinct combinations of speed, shear, and veer, when compared to the baseline regimes. Anomalous regimes are typically short-lived (~few hours), yet their transitions can lead to hub-height wind changes of −18 to +9 m s -1 . For a representative 15 MW turbine, these shifts imply rapid swings in capacity factor from near-full output to negligible generation. Validation with lidar buoy data showed 51% agreement in SOM labels across ~6,000 overlapping hours, with most mismatches confined to adjacent speed classes. HRRR comparisons further revealed that anomalous regimes were disproportionately associated with forecast biases exceeding 5 m s -1 . Together, these results reframe extremes in offshore wind from absolute maxima or minima to weather states that are difficult to anticipate from models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

KS4A-Omics1.0_FspDS682

Soil fungi facilitate the translocation of inorganic nutrients from soil minerals to other microorganisms and plants. This ability is particularly advantageous in impoverished soils, because fungal mycelial networks can bridge otherwise spatially disconnected and inaccessible nutrient hotspots. However, the molecular mechanisms underlying fungal mineral weathering and transport through soil remains poorly understood. Here, we addressed this knowledge gap by directly visualizing nutrient acquisition and transport through fungal hyphae in a mineral doped soil micromodel using a multimodal imaging approach. Here, we observed how a representative of common saprotrophic soil fungi, Fusarium sp. DS 682, exhibited a mechanosensory response (thigmotropism) around obstacles and through pore spaces (~12 μm) in the presence of minerals.This study establishes the significance of fungal biology and nutrient translocation mechanisms in maintaining fungal growth under water and nutrient limitations in a soil-like microenvironment, using a high-throughput multi-omic analysis approach. Data package KS4A-Omics.1.0_FspDS682 (Publication: Fungal Mineral Weathering Mechanisms Revealed Through Direct Molecular Visualization) contents reported here are the first version (1.0) and contain pre- and post-processed data using high throughput data capture technologies for multi-omic analysis and integration, this data package contains raw and post-processed experimental data for X-Ray Absorption Near Edge Structure Spectroscopy (XANES/XRF), Optical Microscopy, Proteomics, Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM), Time-of-Flight Secondary Ion Mass Spectroscopy (ToF-SIMS), X-Ray Diffraction Spectroscopy (XRD) files, and X- Ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS) using EMSL capabilities. This data package DOI contains a comprehensive collection of high-throughput multi-omics data and process metadata catalog. Support files include additional data download contents “Read Me” with dataset descriptor information and data source method application ontologies (see data dictionary section). Reported data download content is structured for compliance with reported guidelines provided by community standard initiatives and publisher stakeholder policies supporting FAIR data principles.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

A High‐Resolution Tropical Mesoscale Convective System Reanalysis (TMeCSR)

Abstract Modern global reanalysis products have greatly accelerated meteorological research in synoptic‐to‐planetary‐scale phenomena. However, their use in studying tropical mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and their regional‐to‐global impact has mostly been limited to supplying initial and boundary conditions for MCS‐resolving simulations and providing information about the large‐scale environments of MCSs. These limitations are due to difficulties in resolving tropical MCS dynamics in the relatively low‐resolution global models and that tropical MCSs often occur over poorly observed regions. In this work, a Tropical MCS‐resolving Reanalysis product (TMeCSR) was created over a region with frequent tropical MCSs. This region spans the tropical Indian Ocean, tropical continental Asia, Maritime Continent, and Western Pacific. TMeCSR is produced by assimilating all‐sky infrared radiances from geostationary satellites and other conventional observations into an MCS‐resolving regional model using the Ensemble Kalman Filter. The resulting observation‐constrained high‐resolution (9‐km grid spacing) data set is available hourly during the boreal summer (June‐August) of 2017, during which widespread severe flooding occurred. Comparisons of TMeCSR and European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) against independent satellite retrievals indicate that TMeCSR's cloud and multiscale rain fields are better than those of ERA5. Furthermore, TMeCSR better captured the diurnal variability of rainfall and the statistical characteristics of MCSs. Forecasts initialized from TMeCSR also have more accurate rain and clouds than those initialized from ERA5. The TMeCSR and ERA5 forecasts have similar performances with respect to sounding and surface observations. These results indicate that TMeCSR is a promising MCS‐resolving data set for tropical MCS studies.

Chan, Man‐Yau↗

DOE OSTI2024

Variational data augmentation for a learning-based granular predictive model of power outages

As the trend in climate change continues, extreme weather events are expected to occur with increasing frequency and severity and pose a significant threat to the electric power infrastructure. Regardless of the efforts a utility puts towards hardening the grid, storm-induced damage to the utility assets such as cables and distributed energy resources (DERs) that are particularly vulnerable to such events is unavoidable. Access to a highly granular, in space and time, outage forecasting tool with long lead times (i.e., days ahead) will enhance the efficiency of service restoration efforts. Here, in this study, we propose to develop and implement a multi-model framework as an operational tool based on a granular and multi-day outage forecasting model using operational numerical weather prediction model forecasts and detailed component outage information. An innovative two-layered recurrent neural network, i.e., a long-short-term-memory (LSTM)-based variational autoencoder (VAE) framework and a sliding window are used to address the uneven distribution of different types of weather events and make better use of the time-series data. Case studies are performed to demonstrate the performance of the new framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Contrasting Responses of Hailstorms to Anthropogenic Climate Change in Different Synoptic Weather Systems

Hailstones and extreme precipitation generate substantial economic losses across the United States (US) and the globe. Their strong association with short-lived, intense convective storms poses a great challenge in predicting their future changes. Here, we conducted model simulations at 1.2 km grid spacing for severe convective storms with large hail and heavy precipitation that occurred in two typical types of synoptic-scale environments in spring seasons over the central US under both current and future climate conditions. We find that the responses of large hail (diameters >2.5 cm) to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) are markedly different between the hailstorms developed in the two types of synoptic-scale environments, with over 110% increase in large hail occurrences for the frontal systems, whereas less than 30% increase for the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) systems. This is explained by the larger increase in convective intensity and updraft width and a smaller increase in warm cloud depth in the frontal storms compared with the GPLLJ storms. Interestingly, the occurrences and intensity of heavy precipitation (rain rate >20 mm hr-1) in both types of systems are similarly sensitive to ACC (e.g., 40% and 33% increases in the occurrences for the frontal and GPLLJ systems, respectively). These results advance our knowledge of hail projection and have important implications for managing risks for future hail.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

AutoBEM-DynamicArchetypes

Automatic Building Energy Modeling (AutoBEM, https://bit.ly/AutoBEM) has been used to create an OpenStudio and EnergyPlus building energy model of 122.9 million U.S. buildings (https://bit.ly/ModelAmerica). Simulating and analyzing a model of every building for large areas (e.g. cities) is often not feasible. This dynamic archetyping capability uses a representative building and calculates a floor-space multiplier that allows millions of buildings to be represented by less than 100 buildings. This script (WRF_Archetypes_Parallel.py) calculates these building archetypes for each of the grid cells from a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in a parallel fashion. The script works by looping through each of the grid cells in the shapefile in parallel, spatially joining the building metadata table to each grid cell, aggregating relevant archetypes and calculating necessary statistics related to area and number of buildings in each cell. The output is a table (.csv) in which each row is an archetype building with properties about that building as well as statistics that relate that building to the total cell (such as an area multiplier). The following inputs are required: WRF zone shapefile (.shp) (wrf-grids-origin_Vegas_Select_100.geojson) The projection of the shapefile ("EPSG:XXXX") Input table containing building metadata for area corresponding to shapefile (.csv) (https://zenodo.org/record/4552901#.YZQEotDMJPY - ClarkCounty2.csv) The number of cores that will be parallelized (integer) The output file name for the archetype table (.csv) Sample command line inputs: python3 ~/WRF_Archetypes_Parallel.py -i ~/wrf-grids-origin_Vegas_Select_100.geojson -c ~/ClarkCounty2.csv -o ~/OutputArchetypes.csv -j 72 -e EPSG:4326 Using Geopandas Version 0.9.0

Bass, Brett (0000000240988434)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hanford Double Shell Waste Tank Corrosion Studies (Final Report FY2019)

During fiscal year (FY) 2019, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) focused on four primary tasks for Hanford Double Shell Tanks (DSTs) corrosion studies. The first task, New Limits, was a continuation from the electrochemical work started in FY16, to expand electrochemical testing to elevated temperatures and elevated hydroxide concentrations and evaluate how these factors will influence pitting corrosion. Using the pitting factor (PF) equation, these new conditions were validated to provide a conservative estimate for the susceptibility of pitting corrosion on legacy carbon steel. The second task, Secondary Liner Corrosion, focused on Vapor Space Corrosion (VSC) and immersion testing studies using two commercially available vapor corrosion inhibitors (VCIs). For this FY, the VCI strategy was applied mid-experiment to determine performance on weathered coupons. The third task, Long-Term Open Circuit Potential (OCP) Drift, was performed using simplified simulated chemistries to evaluate change in pitting corrosion risk due to evolution of corrosion potential for mill-scale and freshly polished 600-grit surfaces. Finally, the fourth task, Microbiologically-Influenced Corrosion (MIC) studies, was focused on the study of leak detection pit (LDP) water sent from the Hanford tank farm for determination of bacteria that can be conducive to corrosion using commercially available kits: BART TM and MICkit® 5. In addition, this FY, a secondary task was added which was a continuation of the study of the Quartz-enhanced Photoacoustic Spectroscopy (QEPAS) system. Work was started but was ultimately not pursued. A summary of each task performed is presented below.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

As part of its commitment to advancing safety and reliability assessment methodologies, Argonne National Laboratory pioneered the use of an evaluation method called the Success Path Method (SPM) to improve risk management for offshore oil and gas operations. The development of the SPM at Argonne has been driven by the need to improve existing risk assessment methodologies by focusing on the steps necessary for success rather than failure modes alone. This is particularly important for industrial environments like offshore facilities that perform multiple functions under a continuously evolving set of operational conditions – such as water depth and temperature, currents, and weather conditions. In these dynamic environments, the traditional Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) approach is far too complex as it focuses on what can go wrong – which comprises an infinite failure space that must be fully explored and understood. By shifting the focus to a finite space of success paths, the SPM enables operators and decision makers to prioritize a manageable number of steps that must go right to ensure success. Building on its five decades of experience in safety assessments for the nuclear industry, Argonne made major adaptations to existing risk assessment methods utilizing features similar to fault trees that are traditionally used in PRA to map all pathways in which the system can malfunction. In contrast, SPM identifies the components and processes that must function correctly to achieve specific outcomes – such as preventing the uncontrolled release of hydrocarbons during drilling operations. The SPM framework integrates equipment, procedures, software, processes, and human actions to ensure that physical barriers meet critical safety functions in dynamic operational conditions. This approach helps identify failure modes and improve operational risk management by narrowing the focus to key success elements, which in turn reduces uncertainty and helps users understand, manage, and respond to failures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Observing Profiles of Derived Kinematic Field Quantities Using a Network of Profiling Sites

Abstract Observations of thermodynamic and kinematic parameters associated with derivatives of the thermodynamics and wind fields, namely, advection, vorticity, divergence, and deformation, can be obtained by applying Green’s theorem to a network of observing sites. The five nodes that comprise the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) profiling network, spaced 50–80 km apart, are used to obtain measurements of these parameters over a finite region. To demonstrate the applicability of this technique at this location, it is first applied to gridded model output from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) numerical weather prediction model, using profiles from the locations of ARM network sites, so that values calculated from this method can be directly compared to finite difference calculations. Good agreement is found between both approaches as well as between the model and values calculated from the observations. Uncertainties for the observations are obtained via a Monte Carlo process in which the profiles are randomly perturbed in accordance with their known error characteristics. The existing size of the ARM network is well suited to capturing these parameters, with strong correlations to model values and smaller uncertainties than a more closely spaced network, yet it is small enough that it avoids the tendency for advection to go to zero over a large area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Experimental Characterization of High-Surface Area Thermal Energy Storage

There is growing interest in energy storage technologies due to the expansion of renewable energy sources that are inherently intermittent and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events that disturb the power grid. Power consumption in buildings makes up approximately 76% of all electricity usage on the grid and is primarily used for thermal applications such as space conditioning, hot water, and cooking. This makes thermal energy storage (TES) an ideal solution for many of these applications. Many TES technologies rely on latent energy storage, which utilizes the melting/solidification of phase change materials (PCM) to store energy. Typically, TES designs suffer from low power density due to their low inherent thermal conductivity. This limitation makes the deployment of TES in active applications difficult as the ease of access to energy is essential for effective use. Common routes for improving power density include high thermal conductivity additives or extended features such as fins that increase cost. This study presents an alternative approach to improving performance through increasing the overall surface area to volume ratio of the device, to increase the available area for convection to occur between the working fluid and PCM. In the study a commercial PCM was selected with a transition temperature ideal for space heating applications. The heat exchanger design utilizes a unique application of triply periodic minimal surfaces (TPMS) for macro-encapsulation of the PCM. The use of TPMS for heat exchangers has been growing in interest due to their high-surface area to volume ratios, which were previously unmanufacturable until the development of additive manufacturing. A modular system was designed and manufactured with a stereolithography resin printing system that is then backfilled with PCM. An experiment test set-up is designed to test the charge and discharge performance of the thermal storage using a conditioned air stream. The pressure drop of the design is tested across a variety of flow rates. When compared to existing experimental data within literature, there is excellent agreement based on the Reynolds number at similar hydraulic diameters. Several inlet temperatures are tested at consistent temperature differences from the phase change temperature for both charging and discharging. Additionally, the volumetric flow rate is varied for each temperature set point. It was found that increasing flow rate had diminishing returns in reducing the overall charge time of the TES. The temperature delta from the melting temperature was the primary contributor to the change in average heat flux with limited variation in average heat transfer rate between charging and discharging at similar inlet temperatures and flow rates. The TPMS heat exchanger design has a high air-side pressure drop but it provides high heat transfer rates. This helps maintain a high outlet temperature during discharge, which is important to thermal comfort applications. The design, manufacturing, and experimental characterization of the TES device will be presented as part of this study.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗