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DOE OSTI2021

Characterization of commercial vehicles’ start-up operations from in-use data

Diesel engines produce disproportionate levels of emissions when the engine and after-treatment systems are operating at low temperatures. This situation arises most commonly when the vehicle is first started after overnight. To quantify emissions attributable to vehicle starts, a sizable collection of on-road commercial vehicle operating data is analyzed to identify start-up events and inspect associated emissions. Data was obtained from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) Fleet DNA and from the Center for Environmental Research & Technology (CE-CERT). Included are 500 + diesel vehicles with more than 42,000 recorded days, drawn from 25 vocational categories across the United States. Analysis shows that vehicle behavior, in terms of engine cold- and warm-operation, starts per day, soak time, and warm-up duration, differs significantly between vehicle vocations. Also, weighting factors for cold- and hot-starts currently used in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Federal Test Procedure (FTP) for heavy-duty emissions certification accurately represent real-world operations. Although the FTP includes a comparable fraction of cold operation, the hot fraction is much shorter than real-world operation due to limited test duration. The investigation also revealed that real-world engines operate for a significant amount of time when the engine coolant is in the “hot-stabilized” region, but the selective catalytic reduction (SCR) temperature is below its effective operating temperature of 200 °C. Of the vehicles under investigation, almost 20% of their operational time is within this condition. Therefore, novel approaches to raise and maintain SCR temperature are highly required to further reduce engine emissions.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Anatomy of a mega‐radiation: Biogeography and niche evolution in Astragalus

Premise Astragalus (Fabaceae), with more than 3000 species, represents a globally successful radiation of morphologically highly similar species predominant across the northern hemisphere. It has attracted attention from systematists and biogeographers, who have asked what factors might be behind the extraordinary diversity of this important arid-adapted clade and what sets it apart from close relatives with far less species richness. Methods Here, for the first time using extensive phylogenetic sampling, we asked whether (1) Astragalus is uniquely characterized by bursts of radiation or whether diversification instead is uniform and no different from closely related taxa. Then we tested whether the species diversity of Astragalus is attributable specifically to its predilection for (2) cold and arid habitats, (3) particular soils, or to (4) chromosome evolution. Finally, we tested (5) whether Astragalus originated in central Asia as proposed and (6) whether niche evolutionary shifts were subsequently associated with the colonization of other continents. Results Our results point to the importance of heterogeneity in the diversification of Astragalus, with upshifts associated with the earliest divergences but not strongly tied to any abiotic factor or biogeographic regionalization tested here. The only potential correlate with diversification we identified was chromosome number. Biogeographic shifts have a strong association with the abiotic environment and highlight the importance of central Asia as a biogeographic gateway. Conclusions Our investigation shows the importance of phylogenetic and evolutionary studies of logistically challenging “mega-radiations.” Our findings reject any simple key innovation behind high diversity and underline the often nuanced, multifactorial processes leading to species-rich clades.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Nonseeded linewise temperature measurements by resonantly ionized photoemission thermometry in a Mach 4 Ludwieg tube

A one-dimensional (1D) thermometry using oxygen-tagging resonantly ionized photoelectron thermometry (O 2 RIPT) was employed to investigate thermal gradients within a Mach 4 Ludwieg tube. The Ludwieg tube is pulsed with a test duration of approximately 100 ms, providing a cold supersonic flow at Mach 4 ideal for studying aerothermal effects. This study focused on measuring freestream temperatures, capturing shock-induced heating behind a detached bow shock from a blunt cylinder, and resolving sharp temperature variations across a bow shock generated by a cylinder. The O 2 RIPT technique produced strong emission signals extending approximately 4 cm long, demonstrating its capability for precise temperature measurements in high-speed wind tunnel environments. The results confirm that O 2 RIPT is well-suited for applications in large-scale aerodynamic testing facilities, particularly in regions with strong compression effects, enabling the resolution of sharp thermal gradients. This method presents a promising solution for thermometry in dynamic flow conditions relevant to various experimental ground-test facilities.

McCord, Walker (ORCID:0000000179747550)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Mechanical and Thermophysical properties of low enriched uranium-10wt% molybdenum rolled foils

In this study, low-enriched (~19.75% 235 U) U-10Mo(wt%) foils were evaluated for both mechanical and thermophysical properties to establish baseline characteristics prior to irradiation testing. Cast U-10Mo ingots were sequentially hot and cold rolled to two different final foil thicknesses, resulting in different levels of cold work being present in the finished foils. The mechanical response of the U-10Mo foils was evaluated in the temperature range of 293–623 K. Increasing test temperatures resulted in decreases of both yield and ultimate tensile strength. Comparison of results to earlier work performed on depleted U-10Mo rolled foils indicates that the material in this study has lower strength and increased ductility. However, a comparison of the two different foil thicknesses in this study found that they were nearly identical in yield and ultimate tensile strength, differing by only 10–20 MPa (<2%). Thermal conductivity was calculated from the measurements of specific heat, linear thermal expansion, and thermal diffusivity from 323 to 1273 K on both thicknesses of the foils. These data were approximately 5–10% lower than previously published data above 573 K and were similar to data for temperature ranges below 573 K. Differences are likely related to differences in grain size and/or impurity content and variation in fabrication history.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Weak Lensing And Cosmology In The Dark Energy Survey

In this PhD Thesis, we present studies which aim at understanding and testing the fundamental assumptions of the $\Lambda$CDM cosmological model. We initially show that weak gravitational lensing can be derived as a consequence of General Relativity, and that it can be applied to astronomical data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) in order to constrain the amplitude of matter fluctuations in the universe. This constraint can be used as an end-to-end cosmological test when it is compared to inferences from the Cosmic Microwave Background. We further extend the cosmological model to account for non-standard parameters which can point to novel physics, and use DES data to assess their statistical significance. We finally show that the Cold Dark Matter (CDM) paradigm can also be fundamentally tested with observational data using morphological signatures of disk galaxies in cluster environments if CDM is self-interacting.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Thermal Cross Section Measurements At The RPI LINAC

Recently, a cold moderator was designed and developed for use at the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Linear Accelerator (RPI LINAC). This cold moderator proved to easily and safely couple to an existing neutron producing target, while enhancing neutron flux below 0.02 eV by up to a factor of 8 by cooling polyethylene down to 29 K. This cold moderator capability allowed for significantly improved counting statistics below 0.02 eV not previously possible due to a poor signal to background ratio. Additionally, testing was performed to characterize the energy resolution of the new cold moderator system and found the system easily capable of resolving resonances in Ta-181 at 4 and 10 eV, while also clearly resolving the Bragg edges found in Be metal below 0.01 eV. Furthermore, following the design and development of a cold polyethylene moderator, a series of thermal total cross section measurements were performed for polyethylene, polystyrene, Plexiglas and yttrium hydride in the thermal region. These measurements serve to help validate thermal scattering law (TSL) evaluations in the 0.0005 – 1 eV energy range. For polyethylene and polystyrene, two sets of experiments were performed – one with the Enhanced Thermal Target (ETT) and another with the ETT plus the new cold moderator capability (ETTC). The yttrium hydride and Plexiglas measurements were only performed with the ETTC. The measurements for polyethylene help to validate the data processing methodology when using the ETTC, while extending the measured range of polyethylene down to 0.0005 eV. Two different Plexiglas, Plexiglas G and Plexiglas G-UVT, and two different concentrations of yttrium hydride, H/Y = 1.85 and 1.68, were measured. Overall, all materials had generally good agreement with their ENDF/B-VIII.0 TSL evaluations, though some discrepancies were noticed. In the case of the yttrium hydride, the high energy oscillations in the hydrogen cross section and the low energy Bragg edges in the yttrium cross section were clearly seen. These measurements represent the first total cross section measurements that encompass the entire thermal region from 0.0005 – 1 eV for polystyrene and yttrium hydride.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Thermal cross section measurements at the RPI LINAC [Abstract]

Recently, a cold moderator was designed and developed for use at the RPI LINAC. This cold moderator proved to easily and safely couple to an existing neutron producing target, while enhancing neutron flux below 0.02 eV by cooling polyethylene down to 29 K. This cold moderator capability allowed for significantly improved counting statistics below 0.02 eV not previously possible due to a poor signal to background ratio. Additionally, testing was performed to characterize the energy resolution of the new cold moderator system and found the system easily capable of resolving resonances in Ta-181 at 4 and 10 eV, while also clearly resolving the Bragg edges found in Be metal below 0.01 eV. Following the design and development of a cold polyethylene moderator, a series of thermal total cross section measurements were performed for polyethylene, polystyrene, Plexiglas and yttrium hydride in the thermal region. These measurements serve to help validate thermal scattering law (TSL) evaluations in the 0.0006 – 20 eV energy range. For polyethylene and polystyrene, two sets of experiments were performed – one with the Enhanced Thermal Target (ETT) and another with the ETT plus the new cold moderator capability (ETTC). The yttrium hydride and Plexiglas measurements were only performed with the ETTC. The measurements for polyethylene help to validate the data processing methodology when using the ETTC, while extending the measured range of polyethylene down to 0.0007 eV. Two different Plexiglas, Plexiglas G and Plexiglas G-UVT, and two different concentrations of yttrium hydride, H/Y = 1.85 and 1.68, were measured. Overall, all materials had generally good agreement with their ENDF/B-VIII.0 TSL evaluations, though some discrepancies were noticed. In the case of the yttrium hydride, the high energy oscillations in the hydrogen cross section and the low energy Bragg edges in the yttrium cross section were clearly seen. These measurements represent the first total cross section measurements that encompass the entire thermal region from 0.0006 – 3 eV for polystyrene and yttrium hydride.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Conversion of METL Diagnostic Flowmeters to Permanent Magnet Based Electromagnetic Flowmeters

The Mechanisms Engineering Test Loop (METL) uses three flowmeters to monitor sodium circulation through the main loop, the Cold Trap leg, and the Plugging Meter leg. When constructed, the Cold Trap flowmeter (CTFM) and Plugging Meter flowmeter (PMFM) were equipped with permanent magnets and Hall Sensors. By October of 2019, during normal operations, both the CTFM and PMFM failed, producing either erroneous or zero signals. Repairs to the flowmeters were attempted in January of 2020 but failed to resolve the issues. Therefore, starting in March of 2021, a plan was developed to convert the installed flowmeters to more robust permanent magnet based electromagnetic flowmeters (EMFMs). The Cold Trap EMFM (CT EMFM) and Plugging Meter EMFM (PM EMFM) were fully installed by August of 2021. Initial testing and commissioning were completed in November of 2021. Finally, the first calibration runs were finished in March of 2022. This report discusses the design, conversion, and calibration of the as-built CTFM and PMFM to robust permanent magnet based EMFMs. During the design phase, theoretical models were used to estimate the signal output and required magnet sizes. Then, the CTFM and PMFM were disassembled and converted to EMFMs. After commissioning, the CT EMFM and PM EMFM were calibrated using a ‘Time Transfer Procedure’ carried out with METL Expansion Vessels and Test Vessel Two. The accuracy of the calibration was estimated through an uncertainty analysis. Finally, the report describes some lessons learned for future flowmeter conversions and follow-up work. In total, both METL EMFM’s met the desired performance targets. Testing data showed that the METL EMFMs provide a output signal of roughly 2 mV at 1 GPM and 250 °C. During calibration, flowrates between 0.7 GPM and 2.4 GPM were achieved. In this flow range, calibration coefficients of 0.485 and 0.935 were measured as with errors ranging from 15-5% and 16-5% for the CT EMFM and PM EMFM, respectively. Above 1.5 GPM, the error was assumed to be about 5% for both METL EMFMs. Several points will be considered for future follow-up work on the METL EMFM’s. First, the signal noise issues in the PM EMFM will be addressed. It is likely the source of the noise is due to some stray EMF from a heater. Secondly, the NdFeB magnets will be replaced with a grade that has a Curie temperature above 80 °C. For example, a few grades of NeFeB magnets have Curie temperatures which exceed 150 °C and some SmCo magnets have Curie temperatures as high as 500 °C. Third, more calibration runs will be completed in the range of 0.5-2.5 GPM. This will further improve the accuracy of the calibration coefficient. Fourth, calibration runs will be completed up to 5 GPM. This requires a larger pressure relief valve to be installed on the Expansion Vessel and Test Vessel 2, as well as a revised calibration procedure. Lastly, calibration runs will be completed to account for cold spots in the system, which reduced the inlet temperature of the METL EMFMs. Overall, these points will improve the calibration coefficients derived in this work and also improve the performance of the METL EMFMs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Full wave modeling of radio-frequency beams in tokamaks in the electron cyclotron frequency range

Simulation of full wave, without paraxial approximation, high-resolution solution of wave equations in frequency domain in the electron cyclotron resonance (ECR) frequency range for realistic Tokamak plasma parameters became possible by using recently formulated hybrid iterative algorithm [Svidzinski et al., Phys. Plasmas 25, 082509 (2018)] for numerically solving discretized wave equations. This approach combines time evolution and iterative relaxation techniques into iteration cycles. This algorithm is implemented in 2D code FullWave, solving wave equations in Tokamaks in cold and hot plasma models, and it has been tested in 3D full wave iterative RF beams simulation tool, which is presently being developed to model 3D ECRH RF beams in fusion devices using dynamic grid adaptation. The results of 2D full wave modeling, assuming specified toroidal mode number, of ECRH RF beams in DIII-D plasma, performed in the cold and hot plasma models for outboard and top launch scenarios using FullWave are presented. Nonlocal hot plasma response model, based on accurate numerical solution of linearized Vlasov equation, is used to model beam propagation and absorption in the 2nd electron cyclotron harmonic region. Demonstration of capability of the hybrid iterative algorithm to model ECRH RF beams in 3D is made by simulating a substantial part of realistic beam in DIII-D, launched from outboard side of the machine. All relevant physics of RF beam propagation, most of which is not captured in paraxial approximation, such as beam's divergence, interference between the X and O modes in the beam, X-O mode conversion, beam splitting into the X and O mode beams, transformation of beam's cross section, and absorption at the 2nd electron cyclotron harmonic, is captured in the simulations. A numerical technique to find an optimal beam polarization at the launcher to launch a nearly pure X or O mode beam in plasma is developed and tested.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Module Testing Procedures and Results for the CMS Phase-2 Outer Tracker Upgrade at Fermilab

The High-Luminosity LHC (HL-LHC) will operate at significantly increased luminosities and is expected to deliver about 3000 $fb^{-1}$ of proton-proton collision data at $\sqrt{s}=14$ TeV over a decade of operation. To maintain efficient tracking and triggering performance under high pileup and radiation conditions, the CMS experiment is upgrading its tracking detector for Phase-2 operations. The upgraded Outer Tracker (OT) will consist of Pixel-Strip (PS) and Strip-Strip (2S) silicon modules capable of providing tracking information to the Level-1 trigger at 40 MHz. Production and qualification of OT modules have been ongoing for about one year across several assembly and testing centers in the US, Europe, India, and Pakistan, requiring extensive testing to ensure stable operation in the HL-LHC environment. Fermilab is responsible for the production and testing of a significant fraction of the OT modules. The testing activities include IV characterization of silicon sensors, noise and pedestal measurements, verification of communication between module components, and burn-in studies using cold-box systems operated under controlled thermal conditions. Results from module testing and qualification studies performed during production will be presented.

Baradia, Sweta [UC, Davis (main)]↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cold atoms in space: community workshop summary and proposed road-map

We summarise the discussions at a virtual Community Workshop on Cold Atoms in Space concerning the status of cold atom technologies, the prospective scientific and societal opportunities offered by their deployment in space, and the developments needed before cold atoms could be operated in space. The cold atom technologies discussed include atomic clocks, quantum gravimeters and accelerometers, and atom interferometers. Prospective applications include metrology, geodesy and measurement of terrestrial mass change due to, e.g., climate change, and fundamental science experiments such as tests of the equivalence principle, searches for dark matter, measurements of gravitational waves and tests of quantum mechanics. We review the current status of cold atom technologies and outline the requirements for their space qualification, including the development paths and the corresponding technical milestones, and identifying possible pathfinder missions to pave the way for missions to exploit the full potential of cold atoms in space. Finally, we present a first draft of a possible road-map for achieving these goals, that we propose for discussion by the interested cold atom, Earth Observation, fundamental physics and other prospective scientific user communities, together with the European Space Agency (ESA) and national space and research funding agencies.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Creep performance and microstructure of grade 91 steel weldments with integrated welding and thermal processing

Ferritic-Martensitic steel welds typically require post weld heat treatment (PWHT) to restore toughness and high temperature performance. This off-line thermal process reduces disparities between weld and base metal, but can cause distortion, cracking, or simply be impractical due to assembly size and joint non-uniformity. Here we show integrated welding and thermal processing applied to modified 9Cr-1Mo (Grade 91) steel, favored for advanced power generation applications, performed in real time through the addition of a secondary heat source near the primary weld head. Optimal integrated processing reduces weld fusion and heat affected zone hardness by 125 HV, approaching performance of conventional 730 °C, 60 min PWHT processing. Microstructures and mechanical performance are compared for mechanized GTAW welds, with equivalent lifetimes noted in cross-weld creep rupture tests up to 234 MPa at 550 °C, and up to 104 MPa at 650 °C. The integrated process was validated on a Grade 91 pressure vessel with multipass cold wire feed GTAW. After 550 °C, 71.4 bar thermomechanical cyclic testing, the maximum weld hardness is <350 HV.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Development of a Bi2212 Dipole Insert at Fermilab

A goal of the U.S. Magnet Development Program (US-MDP) is high-field magnets for accelerators with magnetic fields larger than 15 T, i.e., above the limits of Nb 3 Sn accelerator magnets. Composite round wires and Rutherford cables made of high temperature superconductor Bi2212 may achieve this goal. Bi2212 is sensitive to transverse stresses and strains, and this requires stress management in the coil design. A stress management approach was developed at Fermilab for high-field large-aperture Nb 3 Sn accelerator magnets. Now it is being applied to high-field dipole insert coils based on Bi2212 Rutherford cable. Here this paper describes the insert coil design and main parameters, including the superconducting wire and cable. The coil will be installed inside a 60-mm bore Nb 3 Sn dipole outsert coil and cold iron yoke. The Bi2212 coil will be tested individually and in series with the Nb 3 Sn outsert coil. The expected Bi2212 insert test parameters are reported and discussed.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Integration of sensors through additive manufacturing leading to increased efficiencies of gas turbines for power generation and propulsion

To realize the full capability of additively manufactured components in complex energy systems, it is imperative to minimize early component failures during development phases and during operation. Traditional field feedback timelines and offline inspection protocols significantly reduce the design-manufacturing iteration times. To address this specific question, the project developed and demonstrated a method for the integration of sensors into complex components through additive manufacturing. The team used gas turbine engines as a platform, which meets the need of both power generation and propulsion and offer opportunities for cost reductions and efficiency increases. The innovation of this intelligent integration of sensors into complex components uniquely customized to address questions of integrity and durability for additively manufactured components. With real-time sensing data from additively manufactured components, turbine manufacturers will realize higher efficiencies, reduced component failures, and a 30-50% acceleration in product deployment of high efficiency gas turbine components due to a faster reduction in component risk assessment under actual operating conditions. This is a transformative shift towards a data-driven design and qualification of additively manufactured gas turbine components. To directly integrate sensors into additively manufactured components with all the complexities of actual hardware, powder bed fusion (direct metal laser sintering) and laser metal deposition technologies was developed. Validation took take place in two university laboratories both of which contain actual engine hardware and closely simulate a gas turbine prior to demonstrating the technology in a turbine development test. Indeed, two major technologies from this research cold impact turbine systems in the near future: (1) higher efficiency materials and designs enabled by additive manufacturing with 50% faster design to manufacturing cycle time, to enable faster time-to-market targets; and (2) integration of sensors into additively manufactured components enabling broad health and condition based prognostics for faster component and engine risk reduction.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Measurement of the Cosmic Microwave Background Polarization Lensing Power Spectrum from Two Years of POLARBEAR Data

Here, we present a measurement of the gravitational lensing deflection power spectrum reconstructed with two seasons of cosmic microwave background polarization data from the Polarbear experiment. Observations were taken at 150 GHz from 2012 to 2014 and surveyed three patches of sky totaling 30 square degrees. We test the consistency of the lensing spectrum with a cold dark matter cosmology and reject the no-lensing hypothesis at a confidence of 10.9σ, including statistical and systematic uncertainties. We observe a value of A L = 1.33 ± 0.32 (statistical) ±0.02 (systematic) ±0.07 (foreground) using all polarization lensing estimators, which corresponds to a 24% accurate measurement of the lensing amplitude. Compared to the analysis of the first-year data, we have improved the breadth of both the suite of null tests and the error terms included in the estimation of systematic contamination.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

DEVELOPMENT OF TRANSIENT FISSION GAS RELEASE CAPABILITIES TO STUDY HIGH BURNUP COMMERCIAL FUEL PERFORMANCE UNDER LOSS OF COOLANT ACCIDENT CONDITIONS

The contribution of transient fission gas release to the burst behaviour of high burnup fuel during a loss of coolant accident (LOCA) for commercial light water reactors is a complex phenomenon that is not fully understood. During the temperature ramp associated with a LOCA, there is significant, additional transient fission gas release in excess of steady state fission gas release from normal operation. The timing of this release and the various conditions that impact this release warrant further study. To better characterize this phenomenon, a system was developed to capture and characterize fission gas released from irradiated fuel during simulated LOCAs. This system is an upgrade to the existing Oak Ridge National Laboratory Severe Accident Test Station LOCA test apparatus and detects fission gas by gamma counting cryogenically cooled cold traps and by using an online gas mass spectrometer. The examined fuel can be pressurized or open to the furnace atmosphere. The design and operation of this new capability are discussed. Results from the first tests on high burnup fuel are presented. In the initial test, the LOCA relevant transient fission gas release was 5.3% for an unpressurized segment. Post-test microscopy on the tested samples is presented to demonstrate the likely radial source of transient fission gas release.

Harp, Jason↗

DOE OSTI2022

Developments Towards FRIB Upgrade to 400 MeV/u for Heaviest Uranium Ions

High-Q₀ medium-velocity (beta opt = 0.6) 5-cell elliptical cavities for superconducting linacs are critical technology for advancing current and future projects such as the Proton Improvement Plan II linac and the proposed energy upgrade of Michigan State University’s Facility For Rare Isotope Beams linac, FRIB400. Previous work established the validity of the novel geometry of the FRIB400 prototype 644 MHz 5-cell elliptical β = 0.65 cavities for future high Q₀ development. In collaboration with FNAL, two leading-edge high-Q₀ recipes, N-doping and Mid-T baking, were tested in the 5-cell format. 2/0 N-doping + cold electropolishing was successful at achieving FRIB400 and PIP-II Q₀ requirements, achieving an unprecedented 3.8 x 10¹⁰ at 17.5 MV/m, satisfying the FRIB400 Q₀ requirements by 1.75 times in a low-gauss environment. Mid-T baking exceeded FRIB400 Q₀ requirements by 1.4 times, and benefitted from decreased residual resistance compared to the N-doped cavity test. Systematic ultrasonic thickness measurements in single-cell revealed bulk (150 microns) EP with the modified EP tool is consistent across the inner surfaces of the cavity walls.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Theory for the Balance between Warm Rain and Ice Crystal Processes of Precipitation in Mixed-Phase Clouds

Abstract Mixed-phase clouds contain both supercooled cloud liquid and ice crystals. In principle, precipitation may be initiated either by the liquid phase or by the ice phase. Ice crystals may grow by vapor diffusion to become snow (“ice crystal process”), forming “cold” precipitation. Equally, cloud droplets, when large enough, coalesce to form “warm” precipitation by the “warm rain process.” Warm rain could be supercooled and freeze as “warm” graupel. In the present paper, a new simplified theoretical analysis is provided to examine the microphysical system consisting of three species of hydrometeor, namely, cloud liquid, “cold ice” (crystals, snow), and “warm rain” (frozen or supercooled). This is obtained by nondimensionalizing and simplifying the evolution equations for the mass of each species. Analytical formulas are given for equilibria. Feedback analysis shows that the sign of the feedback is linked to the abundance of precipitation, with a neutral surface in the 3D phase space. The system’s precipitation amount explodes while in the initial unstable regime, crossing the neutral surface and approaching the equilibrium point that is a stable attractor. Positive and negative feedbacks are elucidated. In a standard case, the cold ice mass is about 1000 times larger than the warm rain mass. To illustrate the physical behavior of the theory, sensitivity tests are performed with respect to environmental conditions (e.g., aerosol, updraft speed) and microphysical parameters (e.g., riming and sedimentation rates for cold ice). Cold ice prevails, especially in fast ascent, due to its low bulk density, favoring slow sedimentation and a wide cross-sectional area for riming. Significance Statement The theory elucidates how the ice phase can prevail in the precipitation from any mixed-phase clouds with supercooled cloud liquid and crystals. The ice phase radically suppresses cloud liquid by riming when active and “wins” the competition against coalescence. This prevalence of ice is shown to arise from the low bulk density of snow. The cloud is viewed as a system of negative and positive feedbacks that prevail in realms of stability and instability in a 3D phase space.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗