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At least 199 records · Page 11

Influence of Land Cover and Soil Moisture based Brown Ocean Effect on an Extreme Rainfall Event from a Louisiana Gulf Coast Tropical System

Extreme flooding over southern Louisiana in mid-August of 2016 resulted from an unusual tropical low that formed and intensified over land. We used numerical experiments to highlight the role of ‘Brown Ocean’ effect (where saturated soils function similar to a warm ocean surface) on intensification and it’s modulation by land cover change. A numerical modeling experiment that successfully captured the flood event (control) was modified to alter moisture availability by converting wetlands to open water, wet croplands, and dry croplands. Storm evolution in the control experiment with wet antecedent soils most resembles tropical lows that form and intensify over oceans. Irrespective of soil moisture conditions, conversion of wetlands to croplands reduced storm intensity, and also, non-saturated soils reduced rain by 20% and caused shorter durations of high intensity wind conditions. Developing agricultural croplands and more so restoring wetlands and not converting them into open water can impede intensification of tropical systems that affect the area.

Udaysankar S Nair↗

Muscle Adaptations Following Short-Duration Bed Rest with Integrated Resistance, Interval, and Aerobic Exercise

Unloading of the musculoskeletal system during space flight results in deconditioning that may impair mission-related task performance in astronauts. Exercise countermeasures have been frequently tested during bed rest (BR) and limb suspension; however, high-intensity, short-duration exercise prescriptions have not been fully explored. PURPOSE: To determine if a high intensity resistance, interval, and aerobic exercise program could protect against muscle atrophy and dysfunction when performed during short duration BR. METHODS: Nine subjects (1 female, 8 male) performed a combination of supine exercises during 2 weeks of horizontal BR. Resistance exercise (3 d / wk) consisted of squat, leg press, hamstring curl, and heel raise exercises (3 sets, 12 repetitions). Aerobic (6 d / wk) sessions alternated continuous (75% VO2 peak) and interval exercise (30 s, 2 min, and 4 min) and were completed on a supine cycle ergometer and vertical treadmill, respectively. Muscle volumes of the upper leg were calculated pre, mid, and post-BR using magnetic resonance imaging. Maximal isometric force (MIF), rate of force development (RFD), and peak power of the lower body extensors were measured twice before BR (averaged to represent pre) and once post BR. ANOVA with repeated measures and a priori planned contrasts were used to test for differences. RESULTS: There were no changes to quadriceps, hamstring, and adductor muscle volumes at mid and post BR time points compared to pre BR (Table 1). Peak power increased significantly from 1614 +/- 372 W to 1739 +/- 359 W post BR (+7.7%, p = 0.035). Neither MIF (pre: 1676 +/- 320 N vs. post: 1711 +/- 250 N, +2.1%, p = 0.333) nor RFD (pre: 7534 +/- 1265 N/ms vs. post: 6951 +/- 1241 N/ms, -7.7%, p = 0.136) were significantly impaired post BR.

Hackney, Kyle J.↗

Connecting Indonesian Fires and Drought With the Type of El Niño and Phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole During 1979-2016

This study advances the previous understanding of the role of climate variability on Indonesian fire activity, by considering (i) the presence of different types of El Niño and (ii) the interaction between El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). We classify 12 El Niño events during 1979-2016 into Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) types (four and eight El Niño events, respectively) and analyze observational data of sea surface temperature, precipitation, drought code, biomass burning carbon emission, visibility, and aerosol optical depth accordingly. We find that more intense and prolonged Indonesian drought and fires occur in the EP type, during which the emitted carbon amounts almost double those in the CP type. By further separating the CP type El Niño according to the phase of the IOD, that is, positive and negative, we show that fire seasons with less burning intensity and shorter duration are predominantly associated with weakly positive or even negative phase of the IOD phenomena. Moreover, fire intensity exhibits geographic diversity: fires are always more intensive in southern Kalimantan than in southern Sumatra in all El Niño events, although it is less dry in the former region. The outcome of this study can be applied to drought early warning, fire management, and air quality forecast in Indonesia and adjacent areas by identifying the type of El Niño and the phase of the IOD in advance.

IOD phenomena↗

Maximum Oxygen Uptake During and After Long-Duration Space Flight

Decreased maximum oxygen consumption (VO2max) during and after space flight may impair a crewmember s ability to perform mission-critical work that is high intensity and/or long duration in nature (Human Research Program Integrated Research Plan Risk 2.1.2: Risk of Reduced Physical Performance Capabilities Due to Reduced Aerobic Capacity). When VO2max was measured in Space Shuttle experiments, investigators reported that it did not change during short-duration space flight but decreased immediately after flight. Similar conclusions, based on the heart rate (HR) response of Skylab crewmembers, were made previously concerning long-duration space flight. Specifically, no change in the in-flight exercise HR response in 8 of 9 Skylab crewmembers indicated that VO2max was maintained during flight, but the elevated exercise HR after flight indicated that VO2max was decreased after landing. More recently, a different pattern of in-flight exercise HR response, and assumed changes in VO2max, emerged from routine testing of International Space Station (ISS) crewmembers. Most ISS crewmembers experience an elevated in-flight exercise HR response early in their mission, with a gradual return toward preflight levels as the mission progresses. Similar to previous reports, exercise HR is elevated after ISS missions and returns to preflight levels by 30 days after landing. VO2max has not been measured either during or after long-duration space flight. The purposes of the ISS VO2max experiment are (1) to measure VO2max during and after long-duration spaceflight, and (2) to determine if submaximal exercise test results can be used to accurately estimate VO 2max.

Moore, Alan D., Jr.↗

Model for the 5 March 1979 gamma-ray transient

A model is proposed for the March 5, 1979 gamma-ray transient. A small lump of strange matter, previously ejected from a supernova explosion, struck a slowly rotating strange star. This resulted in a high-intensity flash of radiation from a hot spot produced by the impact. The high-intensity radiation blew open a crater in the crust; the energy released as this crater refilled was responsible for the longer-duration, lower-intensity phase. The 8-s modulation is due to the rotation of the star. A plausible scenario for the production of this event is discussed.

Alcock, Charles↗

Non-stationary precipitation design standards for stormwater infrastructure modernization at USAF installations

The resilience of defense infrastructure systems to a changing climate is critical for national security. Climate induced recurrent flooding is already impacting over 20 U.S. Air Force installations, underscoring the urgency of revisiting precipitation standards and stormwater infrastructure design. Despite growing scientific knowledge and an expanding set of tools for updating outdated precipitation standards based on the assumption of climate stationarity, the adoption of climate informed analyses remain limited in practice. This study utilizes an existing framework to update Intensity (or Depth)-Duration-Frequency (DDF) curves using an ensemble of future climate projections. Change factors in precipitation estimates are derived and applied to six USAF installations across the U.S. The analysis is further extended to evaluate the implications of climate-informed DDFs on stormwater infrastructure performance and flood analysis at Tyndall AFB. Results indicate that the current design precipitation estimates are likely to become obsolete in all six USAF bases by the end of the century. The wide range of change factors across 32 GCM ensembles highlights the need to integrate uncertainty and evolving scientific data into infrastructure planning. The study also finds that the impacts of a changing climate vary spatially and temporally, emphasizing the value of localized analysis for infrastructure decision-making. The work advances ongoing DoD and societal efforts to implement adaptation strategies aimed at enhancing infrastructure resilience.

Intensity-duration-frequency curves↗

Isotonic And Isokinetic Exercise During Bed Rest

Brief, intense activity prevents deterioration of peak oxygen uptake, a measure of work capacity. Study intended to explore effectiveness of exercise in maintaining fitness during long missions in microgravity so crewmembers able to keep up arduous work of building and expanding Space Station. Showed that intermittent, intense exercise of short duration more effective than similar exercise at lower intensity for longer times measured in previous studies. Intense short-term exercise seems to maintain volumes of plasma and red blood cells at normal levels.

Greenleaf, J. E.↗

Temperature, Size, and Energy of the Shoemaker-Levy 9 G-Impact Fireball

The fortunate position of the Galileo spacecraft provided us with a unique opportunity to directly observe the Shoemaker- Levy 9 impacts as they occurred on the far side of Jupiter, and we present observations of the G fireball obtained by the Near Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (NTMS). These measurements were performed using 10 spectral bands, 4 representing continua and spanning the wavelength range 1.84 to 4.38 mu. Fireball signals were evident for up to 80 sec, with the time of intensity maxima and duration being greater for longer wavelengths. Color temperatures and effective emitting areas were estimated by fitting blackbody functions at the four continuum wavelengths. Good blackbody fits were found, and their intensities at shorter wavelengths show excellent agreement with the Galileo Photopolarimeter/Radiometer measurements. Temperatures near the beginning are above 3000 K, decreasing to approximately 1000 K after 1 min. The corresponding areas range from 400 to 20,000 sq km. The effective diameter of the luminous fireball shows approximately linear time variation, at least for the first 45 sec. From the temperature-effective diameter relation we find an adiabatic coefficient of lambda = 1.2+/-0.1, much as expected from theoretical considerations. The luminosity, when integrated over the period of observations and assuming a Stephan-Boltzmann radiator, gives an above-cloud radiative energy loss of 0.48+/- 0.13 x 10(exp 25) erg.

Carlson, R. W.↗

Carbon storage cost modeling for the offshore Gulf of Mexico

Groundbreaking for geologic carbon storage (GCS) projects in the offshore Gulf of Mexico is imminent, and there is great interest in utilizing this region for GCS projects. Offshore saline reservoirs provide a significant and accessible resource for GCS. However, conducting GCS in the offshore environment will pose distinct challenges pertaining to site selection, operations, infrastructure use, and monitoring compared to operating onshore that ultimately affect technoeconomic assessment of offshore GCS projects. Carbon storage and transport costs are critical to project developers looking to deploy carbon storage in the offshore environment. We present CO2_S_COM_Offshore, a model developed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) as a screening-level offshore saline GCS cost modeling tool. Based on NETL’s widely used CO2_S_COM cost model for onshore saline CS, CO2_S_COM_Offshore enables technoeconomic analysis of GCS in offshore areas. This model comprehensively incorporates multiple facets of offshore GCS projects, from regional evaluation and site selection to permitting, transport, operations, monitoring, site closure, and decommissioning. In general, the model can explore the cost implications for potential offshore GCS project(s) by enabling the user to change several project operational and financial attribute configurations. Key inputs include offshore storage formation options, CO2 injection rate and duration, infrastructure types, monitoring intensity, project financing, and post-injection site care duration. Supporting cost algorithms within CO2_S_COM_Offshore were compiled utilizing S&P Global’ s QUE$TORTM cost estimation software alongside a variety of open-source scientific literature. In addition to reviewing key model components, we discuss several sensitivity analyses, input variabilities, and results on analysis of break-even CO2 price required by a project based on different regulation/policy and operational scenarios for the offshore Gulf of Mexico. These results indicate the value of modeling offshore GCS specifically, and the potential of offshore GCS within a decarbonization value chain. Presented at the 41st USAEE/IAEE North American Conference, 3-6 November 2024, Baton Rouge, LA, United States.

Mark-Moser, Mackenzie K.↗

Dust pollution in China affected by different spatial and temporal types of El Niño

Dust is an important aerosol affecting air quality in China in the winter and spring seasons. Dust in China is potentially influenced by the interannual climate variability associated with El Niño. Here, the impacts of El Niño with different temporal and spatial types on dust pollution in boreal winter and spring in China and the potential mechanisms are investigated using a state-of-the-art Earth system model (E3SMv1). We find that the eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño both increase wintertime dust concentrations by 5–50 µg m –3 over central-eastern China. Due to a stronger wind and lower relative humidity, which favor dust emissions near sources, and a strengthened northwesterly and reduced precipitation, which are conducive to dust transport, dust concentrations during the CP El Niño are 5–20 µg m –3 higher in northern China than during the EP El Niño, although the changes are mostly insignificant. El Niño with a short duration (SD) increases boreal winter dust concentrations by 20–100 µg m –3 over northern China relative to the climatological mean, while there is a decrease of 5–50 µg m –3 during the long-duration (LD) El Niño, which is also related to the El Niño-induced changes in atmospheric circulation, precipitation, and relative humidity. In the following spring season, all types of El Niño events enhance dust over northern China, but only the increase during the LD El Niño is statistically significant, suggesting that the weaker intensity but longer duration of the LD El Niño events can significantly affect spring dust in China. Our results contribute to the current knowledge of the influence of El Niño on dust pollution, which has profound implications for air pollution control and dust storm prediction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Spatial variability in Arctic–boreal fire regimes influenced by environmental and human factors

Abstract Wildfire activity in Arctic and boreal regions is rapidly increasing, with severe consequences for climate and human health. Regional long-term variations in fire frequency and intensity characterize fire regimes. The spatial variability in Arctic–boreal fire regimes and their environmental and anthropogenic drivers, however, remain poorly understood. Here we present a fire tracking system to map the sub-daily evolution of all circumpolar Arctic–boreal fires between 2012 and 2023 using 375 m Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite active fire detections and the resulting dataset of the ignition time, location, size, duration, spread and intensity of individual fires. We use this dataset to classify the Arctic–boreal biomes into seven distinct ‘pyroregions’ with unique climatic and geographic environments. We find that these pyroregions exhibit varying responses to environmental drivers, with boreal North America, eastern Siberia and northern tundra regions showing the highest sensitivity to climate and lightning density. In addition, anthropogenic factors play an important role in influencing fire number and size, interacting with other factors. Understanding the spatial variability of fire regimes and its interconnected drivers in the Arctic–boreal domain is important for improving future predictions of fire activity and identifying areas at risk for extreme events.

Geology↗

Variable magnetic field electron spectrometer to measure hot electrons in the range of 50–460 keV

Resonance absorption (RA) occurs when a p-polarized electromagnetic wave, obliquely incident on an inhomogeneous plasma, tunnels past its turning point and resonantly excites an electron plasma wave (EPW) at the critical density. This phenomenon is important, for instance, in the direct drive approach to inertial fusion energy and is a particular example of a wider phenomenon in plasma physics known as mode conversion, which is crucial for heating magnetic fusion devices, such as tokamaks, via RF heating. Direct measurement of these RA-generated EPW accelerated hot electrons, with energy in the range of a few tens to a few hundreds of keV, is a challenging task due to the relatively low deflecting magnetic fields needed. The solution described here is a magnetic electron spectrometer (MES) with a continually changing magnetic field, lower at the entrance of the MES and gradually increasing toward the end, that enables the measurement of a wide spectral range of electrons with energies between 50 and 460 keV. Electron spectra taken in a LaserNetUS RA experiment were acquired from plasmas generated by irradiating polymer targets with the combination of an ~300 ps pulse followed by a series of ten high intensity 50–200 fs duration laser pulses from the ALEPH laser at Colorado State University. In conclusion, the high intensity beam is designed as spike trains of uneven duration and delay pulses in order to modify the RA phenomenon.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

A stochastic model of future extreme temperature events for infrastructure analysis

Applying extreme temperature events for future conditions is not straightforward for infrastructure resilience analyses. This work introduces a stochastic model that fills this gap. The model uses at least 50 years of daily extreme temperature records, climate normals with 10%-90% confidence intervals, and shifts/offsets for increased frequency and intensity of heat wave events. Intensity and frequency are shifted based on surface temperature anomaly from 1850-1900 for 32 models from CMIP6. A case study for Worcester, Massachusetts passed 85% of cases using the two-sided Kolmogorov-Smirnov -value test with 95% confidence for both temperature and duration. Future shifts for several climate scenarios to 2020, 2040, 2060, and 2080 had acceptable errors between the shifted model and 10- and 50-year extreme temperature event thresholds with the largest error being 2.67 degrees C. The model is likely to be flexible enough for other patterns of extreme weather such as extreme precipitation and hurricanes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Evaluation ofthe Middle East and North Africa Land Data Assimilation System

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is dominated by dry, warm deserts, areas of dense population, and inefficient use of fresh water resources. Due to the scarcity, high intensity, and short duration of rainfall in the MENA, the region is prone to hydro climatic extremes that are realized by devastating floods and times of drought. However, given its widespread water stress and the considerable demand for water, the MENA remains relatively poorly monitored. This is due in part to the shortage of meteorological observations and the lack of data sharing between nations. As a result, the accurate monitoring of the dynamics of the water cycle in the MENA is difficult. The Land Data Assimilation System for the MENA region (MENA LDAS) has been developed to provide regional, gridded fields of hydrological states and fluxes relevant for water resources assessments. As an extension of the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), the MENA LDAS was designed to aid in the identification and evaluation of regional hydrological anomalies by synergistically combining the physically-based Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) with observations from several independent data products including soil-water storage variations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and irrigation intensity derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). In this fashion, we estimate the mean and seasonal cycle of the water budget components across the MENA.

Bolten, John D.↗

Photoinhibition of comammox reaction in Nitrospira inopinata in a dose- and wavelength-dependent manner

Apparent contribution of complete ammonia-oxidizing organisms (comammox) to the global nitrogen cycle highlights the necessity for understanding niche differentiation of comammox bacteria among other ammonia oxidizers. While the high affinity for ammonia of the comammox species Nitrospira inopinata suggests their niche partitioning is expected to be centered in oligotrophic environments, their absence in nutrient-depleted environments (such as the oceans) suggests that other (abiotic) factors might control their distribution and spatial localization within microbial communities. Many ammonia- and nitrite-oxidizing organisms are sensitive to light; however, the photosensitivity of comammox has not been explored. Since comammox bacteria encode enzymatic machinery homologous to canonical ammonia-and nitrite-oxidizers, we hypothesized that comammox N. inopinata, the only available pure culture of this group of microorganisms, may be inhibited by illumination in a similar manner. We evaluated the impact of light intensity, wavelength, and duration on the degree of photoinhibition for cultures of the comammox species N. inopinata and the soil ammonia-oxidizing archaea Nitrososphaera viennensis. Both species were highly sensitive to light. Interestingly, mimicking diurnal light exposure caused an uncoupling of ammonia and nitrite oxidation in N. inopinata, indicating nitrite oxidation might be more sensitive to light exposure than ammonia oxidation. It is likely that light influences comammox spatial distribution in natural environments such as surface fresh waters according to diurnal cycles, light attenuation coefficients, and the light penetration depths. Our findings therefore provide ecophysiological insights for further studies on comammox both in field and laboratory settings.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Establishing nationwide power system vulnerability index across US counties using interpretable machine learning

Power outages have become increasingly frequent, intense, and prolonged in the US due to climate change, aging electrical grids, and rising energy demand. However, largely due to the absence of granular spatiotemporal outage data, we lack data-driven evidence and analytics-based metrics to quantify power system vulnerability. This limitation has hindered the ability to effectively evaluate and address vulnerability to power outages in US communities. Here, in this work, we collected ∼179 million power outage records at 15-min intervals across 3022 US contiguous counties (96.15 % of the area) from 2014 to 2023. We developed a power system vulnerability assessment framework based on three dimensions (intensity, frequency, and duration) and applied interpretable machine learning models (XGBoost and SHAP) to compute Power System Vulnerability Index (PSVI) at the county level. Our analysis reveals a consistent increase in power system vulnerability across the US counties over the past decade. We identified 318 counties across 45 states as hotspots for high power system vulnerability, particularly in the West Coast (California and Washington), the East Coast (Florida and the Northeast area), the Great Lakes megalopolis (Chicago-Detroit metropolitan areas), and the Gulf of Mexico (Texas). Our heterogeneity analysis indicates that urban counties and those located along regional transmission boundaries tend to exhibit significantly higher vulnerability. Our results highlight the significance of the proposed PSVI for evaluating the vulnerability of communities to power outages. The findings underscore the widespread and pervasive impact of power outages across the country and offer crucial insights to support infrastructure operators, policymakers, and emergency managers in formulating policies and programs aimed at enhancing the resilience of the US power infrastructure.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Climate change is intensifying rainfall erosivity and soil erosion in West Africa

Soil erosion is a critical environmental challenge with significant implications for agriculture, water quality, and ecosystem stability. Understanding its dynamics is essential for sustainable environmental management and societal welfare. Here, we analyze rainfall erosivity and erosion patterns across West Africa (WAF) during the historical (1982–2014), near future (2028–2060), and far future (2068–2100) periods under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs 370 and 585). Using bias-corrected-downscaled (BCD) climate models validated against reference data, we ensure an accurate representation of rainfall—a key driver of erosivity (R-factor) and soil erosion. We compare Renard's approach and the Modified Fournier Index (MFI) to calculate the R-factor and note a strong correlation. However, Renard's method shows slightly lower accuracy in Sierra Leone, Guinea, and The Gambia, likely due to its inability to capture high-intensity, short-duration rainfall events. In contrast, the MFI, utilizing continuous rain gauge data, proves more reliable for these regions. We also attribute fluctuations in erosivity, such as those seen during the 2003 West Africa floods, to synoptic weather patterns influenced by multiple climate processes. Furthermore, our analysis reveals regions where future soil erosion could exceed 20 t/ha/yr due to climate change. Under the SSP 370 scenario, soil erosion in WAF is projected to rise by 14.84 % in the near future and 18.65 % in the far future, increasing further under SSP 585 to 19.86 % and 23.49 %, respectively. The most severe increases are expected in Benin and Nigeria, with Nigeria potentially facing a 66.41 % rise in erosion by the far future under SSP 585. These findings highlight the region's exposure to intensified climatic conditions and underscore the urgent need for targeted soil management and climate adaptation strategies to mitigate erosion's ecological and socioeconomic impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pathways to excitation of atoms with bicircular laser pulses

We study the excitation of the hydrogen atom by bichromatic circularly polarized laser pulses using numerical solutions of the time-dependent Schrödinger equation. The results are in agreement with the selection rules for multiphoton processes in such fields, namely, excited states are populated in which orbital angular momentum and magnetic quantum numbers are either both odd or both even, independent of the relative helicity, peak intensity, and pulse duration of the pulses. For co-rotating pulses the results show that excitation predominantly proceeds to states with magnetic quantum number of the same helicity as the laser pulses. Besides pathways via direct photon absorption from the ground state our results indicate that a transfer of population among the Rydberg states occurs via Λ-type transitions. In the case of counter-rotating pulses the largest excitation probability is found for Rydberg states that differ in magnetic quantum number by Δm=±3. This pattern allows us to estimate how many photons from each of the two bichromatic fields have been absorbed. Finally, we confirm that a population in Rydberg states beyond a maximum orbital angular quantum number is unlikely.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗