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DOE OSTI2018

Project on Nuclear Gaming: Investigating the Impact of Nuclear Weapons Capabilities on Deterrence: May 2-3, 2018 Workshop Summary

In the future, it may be possible for states to construct nuclear weapons with alternative effects that are optimized for specific military purposes. These nuclear weapon concepts might employ features such as enhanced radiation outputs (ER), electromagnetic pulse (EMP), or other approaches such as high-precision, low-yield systems (HPLY) that reduce collateral damage, but improve lethality to targets. Some have speculated that such weapons could have the effect of lowering the threshold of use for nuclear weapons by reducing the negative incentives to their use or by providing new military applications for nuclear weapons. A nuclear arsenal that includes weapons with alternate effect regimes may also have an impact on the calculus of escalation in a conflict scenario. This project of the University of California, Berkeley (UCB), Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) investigates the potential impacts of alternate nuclear weapons effects regimes on deterrence and strategic stability using experimental gaming methods. The purpose of this document is to capture the research questions, assumptions, scenario characteristics, and other details that provide the framework used to address this challenge presented during the first workshop discussion hosted by the Center for Global Security Research at LLNL with subject matter experts from government, academia, and the private sector. The report also summarizes feedback from participants. Topics discussed during the workshop included alternative effects of nuclear weapons, existing approaches for modeling and measuring conflict, and the state of the art in experimental game design.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2019

The Effects of High-Altitude Nuclear Explosions on Transmission Grids

Assessing impact of high-altitude electromagnetic pulses (HEMP) resulting from the effects of nuclear weapons is a problem of great concern. Some previous studies have estimated the extent and duration of an outage to be severe. In this report, we quantify the extent and duration of an outage resulting from HEMP E1 to the best of our ability given existing knowledge and tools. Our analysis focuses on the impact to civilian consumer of electricity as opposed to the impact on military responsiveness.

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DOE OSTI2019

HEMP Transformer Defense Through Power Electronics

High altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) generated by exoatmospheric nuclear burst has the ability to affect the electric power grid. The main power grid components, cables and transformers, act as large antennas that have current induced in them from the HEMP. These currents are called geomagneticallyinduced currents (GIC), and they can occur during geomagnetic disturbances from HEMP or solar flares. HEMPs produce pulses with high electric field strengths that breakdown the dielectric of most electronics and, it is broken into three stages: E1 pulse with a microsecond width, E2 the falling trail of the pulse, and E3 a constant DC component. Oak Ridge National Laboratory has proven that transformers fitted with lightning arrestors do not receive damage from E1 and E2 pulses. However, the DC component of the E3 causes the transformer’s core to saturate and induce rapid heating that damages the transformer. SRNL is developing a power electronic system that is connected to the neutral of the high voltage side of large power transformers (LPT). This system will inject the inverse of the DC effect from the HEMP into the primary side of the transformer canceling out the E3 waveform and protecting the transformer from half-cycle-saturation. This year SRNL successfully simulated removing the DC injected and accurately simulated saturation on the transformer.

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DOE OSTI2020

Substation Configuration Survey for Electromagnetic Coupling Analysis

Impacts of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) on the power grid are a growing concern due to the increased reliance on the power grid. A critical area of research is quantifying power system equipment response to HEMP since this is not known in general. Substation site surveys were performed at seven high voltage substations across the United States to gather substation layout and construction details pertinent to HEMP coupling calculations and component vulnerability assessments. The primary objective for the survey was to gather information on cable layouts and cable construction within substations. Additional information was also gathered on equipment present within the substations and control house layouts. This report provides information gathered from the substation surveys.

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DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Failure of Electrical Transformers due to Effects of a HEMP Event

Understanding the effect of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) on the equipment in the United States electrical power grid is important to national security. A present challenge to this understanding is evaluating the vulnerability of transformers to a HEMP. Evaluating vulnerability by direct testing is cost-prohibitive, due to the wide variation in transformers, their high cost, and the large number of tests required to establish vulnerability with confidence. Alternatively, material and component testing can be performed to quantify a model for transformer failure, and the model can be used to assess vulnerability of a wide variety of transformers. This project develops a model of the probability of equipment failure due to effects of a HEMP. Potential failure modes are cataloged, and a model structure is presented which can be quantified by the results of small-scale coupon tests.

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DOE OSTI2019

Flexible Large Power Solid State Transformer (FLP-SST)

A large power transformer (LPT) is a major component in the electric power system grid. With the passage of time their reliability in terms of failure and service maintenance has been a big concern. According to a report by EPRI, various agencies have emphasized, and recent events have demonstrated, the critical nature of power transformers in the face of possible high-impact, low-frequency (HILF) events. The HILF events include intentional malicious events (e.g., physical attacks, cyber-attacks, coordinated attacks, electromagnetic pulse weapons, and others), natural disasters (e.g., hurricanes, earthquakes, severe geomagnetic disturbances, etc.), and non-intentional or accidental events such as nuclear power plant accidents. With aging, the line frequency transformers (LFTs) are also prone to failure due to insulation degradation, coolant leakage, mechanical failure, inadequate maintenance, etc. and thus poses a bigger threat to the electrical grid. Moreover, these transformers are custom made to fit the needs at the substation and weighs approximately between 100-400 tons, hence are neither interchangeable nor stored as a spare one. Hence reasonable efforts need to be made regarding the replacement of the LPT with a more feasible technology that does not pose similar issues. The concept of Flexible Large Power Solid-State Transformer (FLPSST) has addressed the aforementioned issues to provide an economical solutions for the failure of LPTs.

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DOE OSTI2020

HEMP Transformer Defense Through Power Electronics

High altitude electromagnetic pulses and geo-magnetic disturbances have the potential to severely impact the electric power grid by damaging large power transformers and causing severe power quality issues. This impact comes as a result of a quasi-static bias induced on transmission lines by geomagnetically induced currents which saturate magnetic components in the electric power system. This paper introduces the concept of utilizing a h-bridge inverter on the neutral of a LPT to inject a DC bias equivalent voltage onto the neutral side of the transformer windings. This biasing floats the transformer windings, eliminating the effect of the DC current and keeping the transformer from saturating. Schematic diagrams will be presented, along with simulation model data using Typhoon and PLECS, and finally test results from a benchtop hardware test.

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DOE OSTI2020

HEMP Testing of Substation Yard Circuit Breaker Control and Protective Relay Circuits

There are concerns about the effects of High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulses (HEMP) on the electric power grid. Activities to date tested and analyzed vulnerability of digital protective relays (DPRs) used in power substations, but the effect of HEMP on the greater substation environment is not well known. This work establishes a method of testing the vulnerability of circuit breaker control and protective relay circuits to the radiated E1 pulse associated with HEMP based on coupling to the cables in a substation yard. Two DPRs from Schweitzer Engineering Laboratories, Inc. were independently tested. The test setup also included a typical cable in a substation yard with return plane to emulate the ground grid and other ground conductors near the yard cable, cabinetry housing the installed DPRs, station battery and battery charger, terminal block elements, and a breaker simulator to emulate a substation yard configuration. The DPRs were powered from the station battery and the transformer inputs energized with a three-phase source to maintain typical operating conditions during the tests. Vulnerability testing consisted of a conducted E1 pulse injected into the center of the yard cable of the DPR circuits. Current measurements on the yard cable and DPR inputs indicated significant attenuation of the conducted pulse arriving at the control house equipment from the emulated substation yard. This reduction was quantified with respect to the equivalent open-circuit voltage on the yard cable. No equipment damage or undesired operation occurred on the tested circuits for values below 180 kV, which is significantly higher than the anticipated coupling to a substation yard cable.

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DOE OSTI2020

EMP-Resilient Electric Grid Transformer Analysis

The response of a high - voltage (HV) transformer to fast rise time voltages, such as that from a electromagnetic pulse (EMP) can result in interruption of power distribution and possibly system failure. To help identify these potential occurrences, it is necessary to develop a transformer model that not only captures the input/output response of the transformer but also the internal behavior. The model constructed should cover the frequency band of interest while capturing the internal physical and electrical characteristics. This broad-band, high-fidelity model would enable the prediction of unwanted effects through simulation. A proposed modeling scheme for a HV transformer is described in Part 1 of this report. Part 2 of this report details assessments of internal voltage and electrical field holdoff testing of transformer insulation dielectric breakdown, including comparison of low frequency (DC/60 Hz) holdoff to rise times characteristic of lightning (1 s) and EMP E1 transients (10 - 30 ns). This initial project is a path toward establishing electrical grid transformer failure criteria for EMP voltage transients. We developed modeling methods and measured breakdown electrical field statistical distributions for direct current, 60 Hz, lightning and EMP characteristic voltage rise times. Methods of nanosecond-scale capacitive discharge unit high voltage source development, suggestions for derating of 60 Hz insulation maximum electrical fields for EMP nanosecond pulse voltage withstand rating, and potential methods for increasing transformer resilience to such fast rise time pulses are described.

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DOE OSTI2020

Substation Cable Layouts for EMP Coupling Analysis

Direct coupling of early-time high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) to substation control cables is simulated for cable layouts based on surveys of seven electrical substations in the United States. An analytic transmission line modeling code is used to estimate worst-case coupled current at the terminations of cable segments in or near the control shack. Where applicable, an induced voltage due to cable shield grounding is also estimated. Various configurations are simulated, including cables with different elevations, lengths, radii, and terminations. Plots of the coupled HEMP effects are given, and general relationships between these effects and the substations geometric and material parameters are highlighted and discussed.

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DOE OSTI2019

SGEMP Algorithm Development and Demonstration for ICEPIC

Algorithms designed to facilitate calculation of gas-modified System-Generated Electromagnetic Pulse (SGEMP) phenomena have been developed for use in ICEPIC. Improvements and extensions of these and related models are considered for helping them be more widely applicable for SGEMP modeling. Confluent Sciences has developed a Buneman-Villasenor unit test tool for assessing particle merge algorithms and has applied that to several candidate algorithms. Statistical analysis of Maxwellian and near-Maxwellian velocity distribution functions has been used to understand limits and tradeoffs of particle merging. Collisional phenomena and plasma models that relieve the burden of a fully kinetic approach have also been developed and assessed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Framework for Bulk Electric Grid Impacts from HEMP E1 and E3 Effects (Tasks 3.1 Final Report)

This report presents a framework to evaluate the impact of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) event on a bulk electric power grid. This report limits itself to modeling the impact of EMP E1 and E3 components. The co-simulation of E1 and E3 is presented in detail, and the focus of the paper is on the framework rather than actual results. This approach is highly conservative as E1 and E3 are not maximized with the same event characteristics and may only slightly overlap. The actual results shown in this report are based on a synthetic grid with synthetic data and a limited exemplary EMP model. The framework presented can be leveraged and used to analyze the impact of other threat scenarios, both manmade and natural disasters. This report d escribes a Monte-Carlo based methodology to probabilistically quantify the transient response of the power grid to a HEMP event. The approach uses multiple fundamental steps to characterize the system response to HEMP events, focused on the E1 and E3 components of the event. 1) Obtain component failure data related to HEMP events testing of components and creating component failure models. Use the component failure model to create component failure conditional probability density function (PDF) that is a function of the HEMP induced terminal voltage. 2) Model HEMP scenarios and calculate the E1 coupled voltage profiles seen by all system components. Model the same HEMP scenarios and calculate the transformer reactive power consumption profiles due to E3. 3) Sample each component failure PDF to determine which grid components will fail, due to the E1 voltage spike, for each scenario. 4) Perform dynamic simulations that incorporate the predicted component failures from E1 and reactive power consumption at each transformer affected by E3. These simulations allow for secondary transients to affect the relays/protection remaining in service which can lead to cascading outages. 5) Identify the locations and amount of load lost for each scenario through grid dynamic simulation. This can be an indication of the immediate grid impacts from a HEMP event. In addition, perform more detailed analysis to determine critical nodes and system trends. 6) To help realize the longer-term impacts, a security constrained alternating current optimal power flow (ACOPF) is run to maximize critical load served. This report describes a modeling framework to assess the systemic grid impacts due to a HEMP event. This stochastic simulation framework generates a large amount of data for each Monte Carlo replication, including HEMP location and characteristics, relay and component failures, E3 GIC profiles, cascading dynamics including voltage and frequency over time, and final system state. This data can then be analyzed to identify trends, e.g., unique system behavior modes or critical components whose failure is more likely to cause serious systemic effects. The proposed analysis process is demonstrated on a representative system. In order to draw realistic conclusions of the impact of a HEMP event on the grid, a significant amount of work remains with respect to modeling the impact on various grid components.

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DOE OSTI2020

Estimation of the Attenuation Caused by Power Line Towers on an E1-HEMP Induced Excitation

In a transmission line, the coupling between a line and a tower above ground is evaluated when the excitation is an E1 high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP). The model focuses on capturing correctly the effect of the coupling on the peak of the HEMP induced current that propagates along the line. This assessment is necessary to accurately estimate the effect of the excitation on the systems and components of the power grid. This analysis is a step towards a quantitative evaluation of HEMP excitation on the power grid. The results obtained indicate that the effect can be significant, especially for lines heights of 20 meters or more.

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DOE OSTI2021

High-Altitude Burst Observed at Large Ground Ranges

The rise times computed by the author’s three-dimensional geomagnetic electromagnetic pulse (EMP) code MACSYNC for a high-altitude nuclear burst increase from a fraction of a shake under the burst to tens of shakes at a 1,000 km ground range (one shake equals 10 nanoseconds). Computations for similar geometries with the frequently used one-dimensional spherical EMP codes CHAP and HEMP show similar rise times under the burst, but rise times that are an order-of-magnitude shorter at large ground ranges. This difference is likely due to the inability of these codes to treat the three-dimensional aspect of the slanted EMP incidence on the atmosphere.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2022

EMP Testing of UL489 Circuit Breakers

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) is performing a test campaign for the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER) to address high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) vulnerability of critical components of generation stations, with focus on early-time (E1) HEMP. The campaign seeks to establish response and damage thresholds for these critical elements in response to reasonable HEMP threat levels as a means for determining where vulnerabilities may exist or where mitigations may be needed. This report provides component vulnerability test results that will help to inform site vulnerability assessments and HEMP mitigation planning.

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DOE OSTI2022

Ensuring a Nuclear Power Plant Safe State Following an EMP Event - Task 7 Deliverable: EMP Testing of Secondary Coupling to Instrumentation Cables

Sandia National Laboratories performed tests to address the potential vulnerability concerns of a coupled High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) inducing secondary coupling onto critical instrumentation and control cables in a nuclear power plant, with specific focus on early-time HEMP. Three types of receiving cables in nine configurations were tested to determine transfer functions between two electrically separated cables referenced to the common mode input current on the transmitting cable. One type of transfer function related the input short circuit current and resulting open circuit voltage on the receiving cable. The other transfer function related the input short circuit current and the resulting short circuit current on the receiving cable. A 500 A standard HEMP waveform was input into the transfer functions to calculate peak coupling values on the receiving cables. The highest level of coupling using the standard waveform occurred when cables were in direct contact, with a peak short circuit current of 85 A and open circuit voltage of 9.8 kV, while configurations with separated cables predicted coupling levels of less than 5 A or 500 V.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Operation Fishbowl

Fishbowl’s primary objective was to generate data on electromagnetic pulses (EMP), the creation and behavior of auroras, and the impact of a high altitude nuclear burst on radio communications. Previous high altitude tests (Teak, Orange, and Yucca) were not instrumented to provide such data, which was deemed critical to countering any Soviet high altitude bursts. The first test of Fishbowl, Starfish Prime, exploded on July 9th with a yield of 1.4 megatons. Standing on Christmas Island, Austin McGuire witnessed the effects of the event.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2022

Industry Requirements for Geomagnetic Disturbance Models

This research project will address the most pressing uncertainties in modeling and measuring the electric power grid effects of geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) and the E3 portion of nuclear electromagnetic pulse (EMP). The primary goal is to help decision-makers in the electric power sector have the knowledge and tools they need to most effectively mitigate GMD effects on our nation’s electric grid, with a secondary focus on EMP. Comprehensive modeling, model assessment through sensitivity analysis, and validation with field measurement data will be the primary tasks undertaken. The goal will be a more widespread adoption of these modeling approaches, namely characterizing the uncertainty associated with these models and how that uncertainty will affect decision-making by industry. This document summarizes industry requirements for better decision-making tools, informed by feedback from an industry advisory board. These requirements help guide planning and execution of the project's remaining tasks.

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