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The specific activities summarized include: verification experiments (base program); thermomechanical cycling model; multiaxial stress state model; cumulative loading model; screening of potential environmental and protective coating models; and environmental attack model.
A generalized carbon flow model for the major terrestrial ecosystems of the world is reported. The model is a simplification of the Century model and the Forest-Biogeochemical model. Topics covered include plant production, decomposition and nutrient cycling, biomes, the utility of the carbon flow model for predicting carbon dynamics under global change, and possible applications to state-and-transition models and environmentally driven global vegetation models.
The environmental conditions that existed on Mars during the Noachian period are subject to debate in the community. In any case, there are compelling evidence that these conditions were different than what they became later in the amazonian and possibly the Hesperian periods. Indeed, most of the old cratered terrains are disected by valley networks (thought to have been carved by flowing liquid water), whereas younger surface are almost devoid of such valleys. In addition, there are evidence that the erosion rate was much higher during the early noachian than later. Flowing water is surprising on early Mars because the solar luminosity was significantly lower than today. Even with the thick atmosphere (up to several bars).To improve our understanding of the early Mars Climate, we have developed a 3D general circulation model similar to the one used on current Earth or Mars to study the details of the climate today. Our first objective is to answer the following questions : how is the Martian climate modified if 1) the surface pressure is increased up to several bars (our baseline: 2 bars) and 2) if the sun luminosity is decreased by 25 account the heat possibly released by impacts during short periods, although it may have played a role .For this purpose, we have coupled the Martian General Circulation model developed at LMD with a sophisticated correlated k distribution model developped at NASA Ames Research Center. It is a narrow band model which computes the radiative transfer at both solar and thermal wavelengths (from 0.3 to 250 microns).
A differential equation, also referred to as the PIB (particle-in-a-box) model, expressing the time rate of change of the number of objects in orbit, is developed, and its applicability is illustrated. The model can be used as a tool for the assessment of LEO environment stability, and as a starting point for the development of numerical evolutionary models. Within the context of the model, evolutionary scenarios are examined, and found to be sensitive to the growth rate. It is determined that the present environment is slightly unstable to catastrophic growth, and that the number of particles on orbit will continue to increase until approximately 2250-2350 AD, with a maximum of 2,000,000. The model is expandable to the more realistic (complex) case of multiple species in a multiple-tier system.
Predictive modeling of environmental conditions on nonmetallic materials was studied. The in-flight data of the atomic oxygen reaction with carbon and osmium, the laboratory and in-flight data of the atomic oxygen reaction with polymeric films and the effect of electron irradiation on the rates of oxidation are discussed. No information is found that can be used to model such effects on composites. The effects of the space environment on thermal control coatings and its effect on the space station are examined.
The one-dimensional cirrus model described in part 1 of this issue has been used to study the sensitivity of simulated cirrus microphysical and radiative properties to poorly known model parameters, poorly understood physical processes, and environmental conditions. Model parameters and physical processes investigated include nucleation rate, mode of nucleation (e.g., homogeneous freezing of aerosols and liquid droplets or heterogeneous deposition), ice crystal shape, and coagulation. These studies suggest that the leading sources of uncertainty in the model are the phase change (liquid-solid) energy barrier and the ice-water surface energy which dominate the homogeneous freezing nucleation rate and the coagulation sticking efficiency at low temperatures which controls the production of large ice crystals (radii greater than 100 mcirons). Environmental conditions considered in sensitivity tests were CN size distribution, vertical wind speed, and cloud height. We found that (unlike stratus clouds) variations in the total number of condensation nuclei (NC) have little effect on cirrus microphysical and radiative properties, since nucleation occurs only on the largest CN at the tail of the size distribution. The total number of ice crystals which nucleate has little or no relationship to the number of CN present and depends primarily on the temperature and the cooling rate. Stronger updrafts (more rapid cooling) generate higher ice number densities, ice water content, cloud optical depth, and net radiative forcing. Increasing the height of the clouds in the model leads to an increase in ice number density, a decrease in effective radius, and a decrease in ice water content. The most prominent effect of increasing cloud height was a rapid increase in the net cloud radiative forcing which can be attributed to the change in cloud temperature as well as change in cloud ice size distributions. It has long been recognized that changes in cloud height or cloud area have the greatest potential for causing feedbacks on climate change. Our results suggest that variations in vertical velocity or cloud microphysical changes associatd with cloud height changes may also be important.
Influenza is an acute viral respiratory disease that has significant mortality, morbidity and economic burden worldwide. It infects approximately 5-15% of the world population, and causes 250,000 500,000 deaths each year. The role of environments on influenza is often drawn upon the latitude variability of influenza seasonality pattern. In regions with temperate climate, influenza epidemics exhibit clear seasonal pattern that peak during winter months, but it is not as evident in the tropics. Toward this end, we developed mathematical model and forecasting capabilities for influenza in regions characterized by warm climate Hong Kong (China) and Maricopa County (Arizona, USA). The best model for Hong Kong uses Land Surface Temperature (LST), precipitation and relative humidity as its covariates. Whereas for Maricopa County, we found that weekly influenza cases can be best modelled using mean air temperature as its covariates. Our forecasts can further guides public health organizations in targeting influenza prevention and control measures such as vaccination.
A user's manual is provided for the environmental computer model proposed for the Richmond-Cape Henry Environmental Laboratory (RICHEL) application project for coastal zone land use investigations and marine resources management. The model was developed around the hydrologic cycle and includes two data bases consisting of climate and land use variables. The main program is described, along with control parameters to be set and pertinent subroutines.
Bacteria inhabit an impressive variety of ecological niches and must adapt constantly to changing environmental conditions. While numerous environmental signals have been examined for their effect on bacteria, the effects of mechanical forces such as shear stress and gravity have only been investigated to a limited extent. However, several important studies have demonstrated a key role for the environmental signals of low shear and/or microgravity in the regulation of bacterial gene expression, physiology, and pathogenesis [Chem. Rec. 1 (2001) 333; Appl. Microbiol. Biotechnol. 54 (2000) 33; Appl. Environ. Microbiol. 63 (1997) 4090; J. Ind. Microbiol. 18 (1997) 22; Curr. Microbiol. 34(4) (1997) 199; Appl. Microbiol. Biotechnol. 56(3-4) (2001) 384; Infect Immun. 68(6) (2000) 3147; Cell 109(7) (2002) 913; Appl. Environ. Microbiol. 68(11) (2002) 5408; Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 99(21) (2002) 13807]. The response of bacteria to these environmental signals, which are similar to those encountered during prokaryotic life cycles, may provide insight into bacterial adaptations to physiologically relevant conditions. This review focuses on the current and potential future research trends aimed at understanding the effect of the mechanical forces of low shear and microgravity analogues on different bacterial parameters. In addition, this review also discusses the use of microgravity technology to generate physiologically relevant human tissue models for research in bacterial pathogenesis.
Biological and Environmental Research (BER) conducts climate science research activities under three programs: the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility, the Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program, ad the Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling (EESM) program. This document provides key findings and recommendations from the Biological and Environmental Research Advisory Committee (BERAC) Climate Science Working Group.
Natural fluctuations in the availability of critical stopover sites coupled with anthropogenic destruction of wetlands, land-use change, and anticipated losses due to climate change present migratory birds with a formidable challenge. We have developed an individual-based, spatially explicit bird migration model that simulates the migration routes, timing and energy budgets of individual birds under dynamic weather and land surface conditions. Our model incorporates biophysical constraints, individual bird energy status, bird behavior, and flight aerodynamics. We model the speed, direction, and timing of individual birds moving through a user specified Lagrangian grid. The model incorporates environmental properties including wind speed and direction, topography, dynamic hydrologic properties of the landscape, and environmental suitability. The model is driven by important variables estimated from satellite observations of the land surface, by data assimilation products from weather and climate models, and biological field data. We illustrate the use of the model to study the impact of both short- and long-term environmental variatios, e.g. climate, drought, anthropogenic, on migration timing (phenology), spatial pattern, and fitness (survival and reproductive success). We present several theoretical simulations of the spring migration of Pectoral Sandpiper (Calidris melanotos) in North America with emphasis on the Central flyway from the Gulf of Mexico to Alaska.
This paper addresses the accuracy of radiation-induced upset-rate predictions in space using the results of ground-based measurements together with standard environmental and device models. The study is focused on two part types - 16 Mb NEC DRAM's (UPD4216) and 1 Kb SRAM's (AMD93L422) - both of which are currently in space on board the Microelectronics and Photonics Test Bed (MPTB). To date, ground-based measurements of proton-induced single event upset (SEM cross sections as a function of energy have been obtained and combined with models of the proton environment to predict proton-induced error rates in space. The role played by uncertainties in the environmental models will be determined by comparing the modeled radiation environment with the actual environment measured aboard MPTB. Heavy-ion induced upsets have also been obtained from MPTB and will be compared with the "predicted" error rate following ground testing that will be done in the near future. These results should help identify sources of uncertainty in predictions of SEU rates in space.
Input for a data management system to provide farmers with information to improve crop management practices in Virginia requires monitoring of control crops at field stations, crop surveys derived from remotely sensed aircraft data, meteorological data from synchronous satellites, and details of local agricultural conditions. Presently models are under development for determining pest problems, water balance in the soil, stages of plant maturity, and optimum planting date. The status of the Cerospora leafspot model for peanut crop management is considered. Other models under development planned relate to Cylindtocladium Blackrot and Sclerotinia blight of peanuts, cyst nematode (Globerdena solanacearum) of tobacco, and red crown rot of soybeans. A software for program for estimating precipitation and solar radiation on a statewise basis is also being developed.
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Potential biophysical responses of crops to climate change are studied focusing on the primary environmental variables which define the limits to agricultural crop growth and production, and the principal methods for predicting climate change impacts on crop geography and production. It is concluded that the principal uncertainties in the prediction of the impacts of climate change on agriculture reside in the contribution of the direct effects of increasing CO2, in potential changes inclimate variability, and the effects of adjustments mechanisms in the context of climatic changes.
In situ measurements of hydrogen, nitrogen, and chlorine radicals obtained in the lower statosphere during SPADE are compared to results from a photochemical model that assimilates measurements of radical precursors and environmental conditions. Models allowing for heterogeneous hydrolysis of N2O5 agree well with measured concentrations of NO and ClO, but concentrations of HO2 and OH are underestimated by 10 to 25%, concentrations of NO2 are overestimated by 10 to 30%, and concentrations of HCl are overestimated by a factor of 2. Discrepancies for (OH) and (HO2) are reduced if we allow for higher yields of O((1)D) from O2 photolysis and for heterogeneous production of HNO2. The data suggest more efficent catalytic removal of O3 by hydrogen and halogen radicals relative to nitrogen oxide radicals than predicted by models using recommendend rates and cross sections. Increased in (O3) in the lower stratosphere may be larger in response to inputs of NO(y) from supersonic aircraft than estimated by current assessment models.
In situ measurements of hydrogen, nitrogen, and chlorine radicals obtained in the lower stratosphere during the Stratospheric Photochemistry, Aerosols and Dynamics Expedition (SPADE) are compared to results from a photochemical model that assimilates measurements of radical precursors and environmental conditions. Models allowing for heterogeneous hydrolysis of N2O5 agree well with measured concentrations of NO and ClO, but concentrations of HO2 and OH are underestimated by 10 to 25%, concentrations of NO2 are overestimated by 10 to 30%, and concentrations of HCl are overestimated by a factor of 2. Discrepancies for [OH] and [HO2] are reduced if we allow for higher yields of O(sup 1)D) from 03 photolysis and for heterogeneous production of HNO2. The data suggest more efficient catalytic removal of O3 by hydrogen and halogen radicals relative to nitrogen oxide radicals than predicted by models using recommended rates and cross sections. Increases in [O3] in the lower stratosphere may be larger in response to inputs of NO(sub y) from supersonic aircraft than estimated by current assessment models.
The Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) developed by the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) is a data-driven model — extensive radar, optical, laboratory, and in situ measurement data sets have been used to build the model since its earliest versions. A salient aspect of professional software development is the verification and validation (V&V) process. Verification answers the question “Is the model built correctly?” while validation addresses the question “Did we build the correct model?” Less extensive, reserved, or independent data sets serve the validation requirement. Due to the dynamic nature of the orbital debris environment, it is critical to use contemporaneous data sources that represent the current environment to support ORDEM development and validation. ORDEM has utilized in situ data collected from Space Shuttle and Hubble Space Telescope surface inspections, now over a decade old. This historical dataset is fundamental for providing baseline in situ measurement data for sizes between 10 to 300 microns, but new data sources are being evaluated using returned surfaces from or near the International Space Station (ISS). This paper reviews a general microscopic survey of ISS soft goods, the Pressurized Mating Adapter 2 (PMA-2) blanket, and a limited-scope feasibility study conducted on the Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SpaceX) Dragon capsule’s Thermal Protection System (TPS) material. The PMA-2 blanket, exposed to the space environment between 09 July 2013 and 25 February 2015, is an approximately 3.7 m2-area blanket composed of a betacloth outer layer and multiple ballistic fabric inner layers. The SpaceX Cargo Dragon capsule regularly visited the ISS from 2012 through 2020 and potentially provides a timely and well-characterized source of data for modeling purposes. The capsule’s lateral surfaces use SpaceX Proprietary Ablative Material (SPAM) TPS material, a syntactic foam, for thermal management during all mission phases. Seven SPAM extracted samples have been analyzed to date. This paper will provide an overview of the characterization completed for impact features by size, depth, impactor diameter, and the impactor residues chemical analyses, allowing a differentiation between micrometeoroids and orbital debris and a categorization by mass density and density class. Impactor diameter is estimated using damage equations generated from ground-based hypervelocity impact testing. The orbital debris impactors are compared to the current ORDEM 3.2 model of the environment at ISS altitudes. We briefly discuss the meteoroid impactors, including constituents and mass densities, in the general context of current models.