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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
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NASA NTRS2014

Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclones to Parameterized Convection in the NASA GEOS5 Model

The sensitivity of tropical cyclones (TCs) to changes in parameterized convection is investigated to improve the simulation of TCs in the North Atlantic. Specifically, the impact of reducing the influence of the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) scheme-based parameterized convection is explored using the Goddard Earth Observing System version5 (GEOS5) model at 0.25 horizontal resolution. The years 2005 and 2006 characterized by very active and inactive hurricane seasons, respectively, are selected for simulation. A reduction in parameterized deep convection results in an increase in TC activity (e.g., TC number and longer life cycle) to more realistic levels compared to the baseline control configuration. The vertical and horizontal structure of the strongest simulated hurricane shows the maximum lower-level (850-950hPa) wind speed greater than 60 ms and the minimum sea level pressure reaching 940mb, corresponding to a category 4 hurricane - a category never achieved by the control configuration. The radius of the maximum wind of 50km, the location of the warm core exceeding 10 C, and the horizontal compactness of the hurricane center are all quite realistic without any negatively affecting the atmospheric mean state. This study reveals that an increase in the threshold of minimum entrainment suppresses parameterized deep convection by entraining more dry air into the typical plume. This leads to cooling and drying at the mid- to upper-troposphere, along with the positive latent heat flux and moistening in the lower-troposphere. The resulting increase in conditional instability provides an environment that is more conducive to TC vortex development and upward moisture flux convergence by dynamically resolved moist convection, thereby increasing TC activity.

GEOS5↗
NASA NTRS2020

GISS Model E2.2: A Climate Model Optimized for the Middle Atmosphere. Part 1: Model Structure, Climatology, Variability and Climate Sensitivity

We introduce a new climate model (GISS E2.2) that has been specially optimized for the Middle Atmosphere, and whose output is being contributed to the CMIP6 archive. The top of the model is at a geopotential altitude of 89 km, and parameterizations of moist convection and various forms of gravity wave drag based on tropospheric processes are chosen specifically for this optimization. We first evaluate the model in its configuration as a coupled atmosphere-chemistry model with respect to its simulation of the mean state of the Middle Atmosphere, from the mesosphere down through the Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere. Then we assess its use as a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model by exploring its mean ocean climatology. To evaluate its variability, we report on its simulation of the primary modes in the troposphere, stratosphere and ocean. Two climate change simulations are presented, the responses to instantaneous increases of 2xCO2 and 4xCO2, run with two different ocean models. Sensitivity studies are performed to illustrate the effect of parameterizations on the model results. We compare these results to the lower vertical resolution/top GISS Model E2.1, whose output has also been submitted to CMIP6. The different choices made for these models are explored. It is shown that important improvements in the circulation above and below the tropopause can be obtained when attention is paid to representation of Middle Atmosphere processes in climate model development.

D. Rind↗
NASA NTRS2017

Evaluation of HZETRN on the Martian Surface: Sensitivity Tests and Model Results

The Mars Science Laboratory Radiation Assessment Detector (MSLRAD) is providing continuous measurements of dose, dose equivalent, and particle flux on the surface of Mars. These measurements have been highly useful in validating environmental and radiation transport models that will be heavily relied upon for future deep space missions. In this work, the HZETRN code is utilized to estimate radiation quantities of interest on the Martian surface. A description of the modeling approach used with HZETRN is given along with the various input models and parameters used to define the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) environment and Martian geometry. Sensitivity tests are performed to gauge the impact of varying several input factors on quantities being compared to MSLRAD data. Results from these tests provide context for inter-code comparisons presented in a companion paper within this issue. It is found that details of the regolith and atmospheric composition have a minimal impact on surface flux, dose, and dose equivalent. Details of the density variation within the atmosphere and uncertainties associated with specifying the vertical atmospheric thickness are also found to have minimal impact. Two widely used GCR models are used as input into HZETRN and it is found that the associated surface quantities are within several percent of each other.

Tony C Slaba↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Atmosphere Modeling and Performance Sensitivity for the Mars Sample Return Earth Entry System

The Capture, Containment, and Return System (CCRS) mission is a key element of the joint NASA-European Space Agency (ESA) planned Mars Sample Return (MSR) Campaign. The CCRS assembled Earth Entry System (EES) will enter the mission’s final segment in its Approach, Entry, Descent, and Landing (AEDL) Phase. The EES AEDL aims to deliver a highly reliable, safe, and accurate return while maintaining strict containment assurance targets established by the campaign. As currently designed, the EES would be the first fully passive sample return capsule with no parachute or onboard control system, prompting a significant effort in Earth atmosphere characterization and modeling. Earth’s atmosphere, specifically winds, have a strong influence on EES flight mechanics and landing footprint during its free fall landing. This paper describes Earth atmosphere modeling, atmosphere characterization, and performance sensitivities incorporated into the teams’s efforts to ensure AEDL success. By utilizing high resolution balloon radiosondes, analyzing wind structural and distributional compositions, and investigating flight mechanics sensitivities, the AEDL atmosphere team has been able to better understand and simulate local wind conditions at the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR). Utilizing tools such as horizontal turbulent kinetic energy, vertical wind shear, or integrated wind, the team have been able to reveal valuable information about wind profiles in a deeper context than previously conducted, ultimately improving understanding of AEDL flight mechanics sensitivity and EES design.

Kaustubh Ray↗
NASA NTRS2014

Sensitivity of Mesoscale Modeling of Smoke Direct Radiative Effect to the Emission Inventory: a Case Study in Northern Sub-Saharan African Region

An ensemble approach is used to examine the sensitivity of smoke loading and smoke direct radiative effect in the atmosphere to uncertainties in smoke emission estimates. Seven different fire emission inventories are applied independently to WRF-Chem model (v3.5) with the same model configuration (excluding dust and other emission sources) over the northern sub-Saharan African (NSSA) biomass-burning region. Results for November and February 2010 are analyzed, respectively representing the start and end of the biomass burning season in the study region. For February 2010, estimates of total smoke emission vary by a factor of 12, but only differences by factors of 7 or less are found in the simulated regional (15degW-42degE, 13degS-17degN) and monthly averages of column PM(sub 2.5) loading, surface PM(sub 2.5) concentration, aerosol optical depth (AOD), smoke radiative forcing at the top-of-atmosphere and at the surface, and air temperature at 2 m and at 700 hPa. The smaller differences in these simulated variables may reflect the atmospheric diffusion and deposition effects to dampen the large difference in smoke emissions that are highly concentrated in areas much smaller than the regional domain of the study. Indeed, at the local scale, large differences (up to a factor of 33) persist in simulated smoke-related variables and radiative effects including semi-direct effect. Similar results are also found for November 2010, despite differences in meteorology and fire activity. Hence, biomass burning emission uncertainties have a large influence on the reliability of model simulations of atmospheric aerosol loading, transport, and radiative impacts, and this influence is largest at local and hourly-to-daily scales. Accurate quantification of smoke effects on regional climate and air quality requires further reduction of emission uncertainties, particularly for regions of high fire concentrations such as NSSA.

Sahel and sub-Saharan African region↗
NASA NTRS2018

Flux-Pinned Dynamics Model Parameterization and Sensitivity Study

Flux-pinned interfaces for spacecraft are an action-at-a-distance technology that can maintain a passively stable equilibrium between two spacecraft in close-proximity using the physics of magnetic flux pinning. Although flux pinning dynamics have been studied from a material-science perspective and at an interface level, there is a need to better understand the sensitivities and implications of system-level designs on the flux-pinned interface dynamics, especially in designs with multiple magnets and superconductors. These interfaces have highly nonlinear, coupled dynamics that are influenced by physical parameters including but not limited to strength of magnetic field sources, field-cooled position, and superconductor geometry. This paper addresses that gap by codifying parametric terms into an improved dynamics model, which can then be used to simulate the interaction of a multiple-superconductor-multiple-magnet interface. A standard starting point for modeling flux pinning dynamics is Kordyuk’s frozen image model, which defines a geometric mapping between magnetic field sources and their corresponding magnetic point source “images inside the volume of the superconductor.” The frozen image model successfully approximates the characteristics of flux pinning dynamics, but could provide more precise position and orientation predictions with the addition of various physical parameter refinements. The sensitivity of the general flux-pinned dynamics model is studied by varying the physical parameters and simulating the systems level dynamics. A predictive dynamics model is crucial to the maturation of this technology so it can be utilized in spacecraft systems, and this work represents a critical step in the development of that model.

Peck, Mason↗
NASA NTRS2004

Sensitivity of Global Modeling Initiative Model Predictions of Antarctic Ozone Recovery to Input Meteorological Fields

We use the Global Modeling Initiative chemistry and transport model to simulate the evolution of stratospheric ozone between 1995 and 2030, using boundary conditions consistent with the recent World Meteorological Organization ozone assessment. We compare the Antarctic ozone recovery predictions of two simulations, one driven by an annually repeated year of meteorological data from a general circulation model (GCM), the other using a year of output from a data assimilation system (DAS), to examine the sensitivity of Antarctic ozone recovery predictions to the characteristic dynamical differences between GCM- and DAS-generated meteorological data. Although the age of air in the Antarctic lower stratosphere differs by a factor of 2 between the simulations, we find little sensitivity of the 1995-2030 Antarctic ozone recovery between 350 and 650 K to the differing meteorological fields, particularly when the recovery is specified in mixing ratio units. Percent changes are smaller in the DAS-driven simulation compared to the GCM-driven simulation because of a surplus of Antarctic ozone in the DAS-driven simulation which is not consistent with observations. The peak ozone change between 1995 and 2030 in both simulations is approx.20% lower than photochemical expectations, indicating that changes in ozone transport due to changing ozone gradients at 450 K between 1995 and 2030 constitute a small negative feedback. Total winter/spring ozone loss during the base year (1995) of both simulations and the rate of ozone loss during August and September is somewhat weaker than observed. This appears to be due to underestimates of Antarctic Cl(sub y) at the 450 K potential temperature level.

Considine, David B.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Microphysical modeling of cirrus. 2: Sensitivity studies

The one-dimensional cirrus model described in part 1 of this issue has been used to study the sensitivity of simulated cirrus microphysical and radiative properties to poorly known model parameters, poorly understood physical processes, and environmental conditions. Model parameters and physical processes investigated include nucleation rate, mode of nucleation (e.g., homogeneous freezing of aerosols and liquid droplets or heterogeneous deposition), ice crystal shape, and coagulation. These studies suggest that the leading sources of uncertainty in the model are the phase change (liquid-solid) energy barrier and the ice-water surface energy which dominate the homogeneous freezing nucleation rate and the coagulation sticking efficiency at low temperatures which controls the production of large ice crystals (radii greater than 100 mcirons). Environmental conditions considered in sensitivity tests were CN size distribution, vertical wind speed, and cloud height. We found that (unlike stratus clouds) variations in the total number of condensation nuclei (NC) have little effect on cirrus microphysical and radiative properties, since nucleation occurs only on the largest CN at the tail of the size distribution. The total number of ice crystals which nucleate has little or no relationship to the number of CN present and depends primarily on the temperature and the cooling rate. Stronger updrafts (more rapid cooling) generate higher ice number densities, ice water content, cloud optical depth, and net radiative forcing. Increasing the height of the clouds in the model leads to an increase in ice number density, a decrease in effective radius, and a decrease in ice water content. The most prominent effect of increasing cloud height was a rapid increase in the net cloud radiative forcing which can be attributed to the change in cloud temperature as well as change in cloud ice size distributions. It has long been recognized that changes in cloud height or cloud area have the greatest potential for causing feedbacks on climate change. Our results suggest that variations in vertical velocity or cloud microphysical changes associatd with cloud height changes may also be important.

Jensen, Eric J.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Sensitivities of Tropical Cyclones to Surface Friction and the Coriolis Parameter in a 2-D Cloud-Resolving Model

The sensitivities to surface friction and the Coriolis parameter in tropical cyclogenesis are studied using an axisymmetric version of the Goddard cloud ensemble model. Our experiments demonstrate that tropical cyclogenesis can still occur without surface friction. However, the resulting tropical cyclone has very unrealistic structure. Surface friction plays an important role of giving the tropical cyclones their observed smaller size and diminished intensity. Sensitivity of the cyclogenesis process to surface friction. in terms of kinetic energy growth, has different signs in different phases of the tropical cyclone. Contrary to the notion of Ekman pumping efficiency, which implies a preference for the highest Coriolis parameter in the growth rate if all other parameters are unchanged, our experiments show no such preference.

Chao, Winston C.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Computer modeling of the sensitivity of a laser water vapor sensor to variations in temperature and air speed

Currently, there is disagreement among existing methods of determining atmospheric water vapor concentration at dew-points below -40 C. A major source of error is wall effects which result from the necessity of bringing samples into the instruments. All of these instruments also have response times on the order of seconds. NASA Langley is developing a water vapor sensor which utilizes the absorption of the infrared radiation produced by a diode laser to estimate water vapor concentration. The laser beam is directed through an aircraft window to a retroreflector located on an engine. The reflected beam is detected by an infrared detector located near the laser. To maximize signal to noise, derivative signals are analyzed. By measuring the 2f/DC signal and correcting for ambient temperature, atmospheric pressure and air speed (which results in a Doppler shifting of the laser beam), the water vapor concentration can be retrieved. Since this is an in situ measurement there are no wall effects and measurements can be made at a rate of more than 20 per second. This allows small spatial variations of water vapor to be studied. In order to study the sensitivity of the instrument to variations in temperature and air speed, a computer program which generated the 2f, 3f, 4f, DC and 2f/DC signals of the instrument as a function of temperature, pressure and air speed was written. This model was used to determine the effect of errors in measurement of the temperature and air speed on the measured water vapor concentration. Future studies will quantify the effect of pressure measurement errors, which are expected to be very small. As a result of these studied, a retrieval algorithm has been formulated, and will be applied to data taken during the PEM-West atmospheric science field mission. Spectroscopic studies of the water vapor line used by the instrument will be used to refine this algorithm. To prepare for these studies, several lasers have been studied to determine their output frequency range and power.

Tucker, George F.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Simulation of High-Latitude Hydrological Processes in the Torne-Kalix Basin: PILPS Phase 2(e): Equivalent Model Representation and Sensitivity Experiments - 3

The Project for Intercomparison of Land Surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) Phase 2(e) showed that in cold regions the annual runoff production in Land Surface Schemes (LSSs) is closely related to the maximum snow accumulation, which in turn is controlled in large part by winter sublimation. To help further explain the relationship between snow cover, turbulent exchanges and runoff production, a simple equivalent model-(SEM) was devised to reproduce the seasonal and annual fluxes simulated by 13 LSSs that participated in PILPS Phase 2(e). The design of the SEM relates the annual partitioning of precipitation and energy in the LSSs to three primary parameters: snow albedo, effective aerodynamic resistance and evaporation efficiency. Isolation of each of the parameters showed that the annual runoff production was most sensitive to the aerodynamic resistance. The SEM was somewhat successful in reproducing the observed LSS response to a decrease in shortwave radiation and changes in wind speed forcings. SEM parameters derived from the reduced shortwave forcings suggested that increased winter stability suppressed turbulent heat fluxes over snow. Because winter sensible heat fluxes were largely negative, reductions in winter shortwave radiation imply an increase in annual average sensible heat.

Bowling, Laura C.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Evaluating the Sensitivity of Agricultural Model Performance to Different Climate Inputs: Supplemental Material

Projections of future food production necessarily rely on models, which must themselves be validated through historical assessments comparing modeled and observed yields. Reliable historical validation requires both accurate agricultural models and accurate climate inputs. Problems with either may compromise the validation exercise. Previous studies have compared the effects of different climate inputs on agricultural projections but either incompletely or without a ground truth of observed yields that would allow distinguishing errors due to climate inputs from those intrinsic to the crop model. This study is a systematic evaluation of the reliability of a widely used crop model for simulating U.S. maize yields when driven by multiple observational data products. The parallelized Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (pDSSAT) is driven with climate inputs from multiple sources reanalysis, reanalysis that is bias corrected with observed climate, and a control dataset and compared with observed historical yields. The simulations show that model output is more accurate when driven by any observation-based precipitation product than when driven by non-bias-corrected reanalysis. The simulations also suggest, in contrast to previous studies, that biased precipitation distribution is significant for yields only in arid regions. Some issues persist for all choices of climate inputs: crop yields appear to be oversensitive to precipitation fluctuations but under sensitive to floods and heat waves. These results suggest that the most important issue for agricultural projections may be not climate inputs but structural limitations in the crop models themselves.

simulation↗
NASA NTRS1997

Model Evaluation and Sensitivity Studies for Determining Aircraft Effects on the Global Atmosphere

This project, started in July 1995 and ending in July 1996, related: to evaluation of the possible importance of soot and sulfur dioxide emissions from subsonic and supersonic aircraft; to research contributions and special responsibilities for NASA AEAP assessments of subsonic aircraft and High Speed Civil Transport aircraft; and to science team responsibilities supporting the development of the three-dimensional atmospheric chemistry model of the Global Modeling Initiative.

Wuebbles, Donald J.↗
NASA NTRS2006

The Sensitivity of Arctic Ozone Loss to Polar Stratospheric Cloud Volume and Chlorine and Bromine Loading in a Chemistry and Transport Model

The sensitivity of Arctic ozone loss to polar stratospheric cloud volume (V(sub PSC)) and chlorine and bromine loading is explored using chemistry and transport models (CTMs). A simulation using multi-decadal output from a general circulation model (GCM) in the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) CTM complements one recycling a single year s GCM output in the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) CTM. Winter polar ozone loss in the GSFC CTM depends on equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) and polar vortex characteristics (temperatures, descent, isolation, polar stratospheric cloud amount). Polar ozone loss in the GMI CTM depends only on changes in EESC as the dynamics repeat annually. The GSFC CTM simulation reproduces a linear relationship between ozone loss and Vpsc derived from observations for 1992 - 2003 which holds for EESC within approx.85% of its maximum (approx.1990 - 2020). The GMI simulation shows that ozone loss varies linearly with EESC for constant, high V(sub PSC).

Douglass, A. R.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Sensitivity Analysis of the Integrated Medical Model for ISS Programs

Sensitivity analysis estimates the relative contribution of the uncertainty in input values to the uncertainty of model outputs. Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) and Standardized Rank Regression Coefficient (SRRC) are methods of conducting sensitivity analysis on nonlinear simulation models like the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The PRCC method estimates the sensitivity using partial correlation of the ranks of the generated input values to each generated output value. The partial part is so named because adjustments are made for the linear effects of all the other input values in the calculation of correlation between a particular input and each output. In SRRC, standardized regression-based coefficients measure the sensitivity of each input, adjusted for all the other inputs, on each output. Because the relative ranking of each of the inputs and outputs is used, as opposed to the values themselves, both methods accommodate the nonlinear relationship of the underlying model. As part of the IMM v4.0 validation study, simulations are available that predict 33 person-missions on ISS and 111 person-missions on STS. These simulated data predictions feed the sensitivity analysis procedures. The inputs to the sensitivity procedures include the number occurrences of each of the one hundred IMM medical conditions generated over the simulations and the associated IMM outputs: total quality time lost (QTL), number of evacuations (EVAC), and number of loss of crew lives (LOCL). The IMM team will report the results of using PRCC and SRRC on IMM v4.0 predictions of the ISS and STS missions created as part of the external validation study. Tornado plots will assist in the visualization of the condition-related input sensitivities to each of the main outcomes. The outcomes of this sensitivity analysis will drive review focus by identifying conditions where changes in uncertainty could drive changes in overall model output uncertainty. These efforts are an integral part of the overall verification, validation, and credibility review of IMM v4.0.

medical equipment↗
NASA NTRS2017

Balloon Thermal Model Design Parameters and Sensitivities

This presentation describes the thought process for determining balloon thermal model design parameters, including environmental parameters taken form NASA's top-of-atmosphere (TOA) database, and shows the sensitivity of an example model's key temperature results to those input parameters.

Balloon Thermal Model Design Paremeters and Sensit↗
NASA NTRS1989

Sensitivity of actively damped structures to imperfections and modeling errors

The sensitivity of actively damped response of structures with respect to errors in the structural modeling is studied. Two ways of representing errors are considered. The first approach assumes errors in the form of spatial variations (or imperfections) in the assumed mass and stiffness properties of the structures. The second approach assumes errors due to such factors as unknown joint stiffnesses, discretization errors, and nonlinearities. These errors are represented here as discrepancies between experimental and analytical mode shapes and frequencies. The actively damped system considered here is a direct-rate feedback regulator based on a number of colocated velocity sensors and force actuators. The response of the controlled structure is characterized by the eigenvalues of the closed-loop system. The effects of the modeling errors are thus presented as the sensitivity of the eigenvalues of the closed-loop system. Results are presented for two examples: (1) a three-span simply supported beam controlled by three sensors and actuators, and (2) a laboratory structure consisting of a cruciform beam supported by cables.

Haftka, Raphael T.↗