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At least 199 records · Page 11

The Challenger Tradgedy was Caused by an Apollo Mistake, Terminating Risk Analysis

NASA’s attitude toward risk changed drastically between the Apollo and Space Shuttle design. [1]Apollo engineers were seriously alarmed about riskbecause of the fatal Apollo 1 fire and the fact that the estimated probability of another fatal accident was extremely high. The predictions were so appalling thatmanagement terminated risk analysis to avoid public apprehension. Because risk analysis was not done, the Space Shuttle design accepted excessively high andunknown risk. The immediate cause of the Challengertragedy was the mistaken decision to launch in coldweather that impaired the O-ring seals, but the fundamental cause was the high risk of the shuttle design. Before Challenger, management asserted that the probability of a fatal accident was 1 in 100,000.Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) found a roughly 1 in 100 chance of a shuttle failure.

Harry W Jones↗

A reliability and mass perspective of SP-100 Stirling cycle lunar-base powerplant designs

The purpose was to obtain reliability and mass perspectives on selection of space power system conceptual designs based on SP-100 reactor and Stirling cycle power-generation subsystems. The approach taken was to: (1) develop a criterion for an acceptable overall reliability risk as a function of the expected range of emerging technology subsystem unit reliabilities; (2) conduct reliability and mass analyses for a diverse matrix of 800-kWe lunar-base design configurations employing single and multiple powerplants with both full and partial subsystem redundancy combinations; and (3) derive reliability and mass perspectives on selection of conceptual design configurations that meet an acceptable reliability criterion with the minimum system mass increase relative to reference powerplant design. The developed perspectives provided valuable insight into the considerations required to identify and characterize high-reliability and low-mass lunar-base powerplant conceptual design.

Bloomfield, Harvey S.↗

Maintaining Skeletal Health During the Mission to Mars

Understanding how the effects of long-duration spaceflight (~6-months) might increase fracture risk in the younger-aged, physically-fit astronaut is challenging. Most of our skeletal data have been acquired from long-duration astronauts, crewmembers who typically serve on 120-180 day missions aboard the International Space Station (ISS). Astronaut biomedical data are predominantly 2-d measurements from DXA scans because this is a required clinical test at Johnson Space Center. Data from these clinical tests, and some data from research studies, are what NASA evaluates to define a risk for fracture in astronauts, both during a mission and long-term health. To date, the agency considers the risk for fracture during spaceflight to be of high (severe) consequence but of low probability (<0.1%) while the risk for fracture in during long-term health to be of medium consequence (interventions available) and medium probability (<1%). These risks are considered acceptable. Notably, there are minimal data to suggest that postflight fractures in long-duration astronauts are directly due to spaceflight exposure. Analyses by NASA epidemiologists and by biomedical engineers suggest that postflight fracture incidence in astronauts is consistent with a physically-active terrestrial population with no exposure to spaceflight. The epidemiological data to-date may be considered insufficient (low # and younger-aged subjects, limited follow-up time) to assess a fracture risk with reliability. In the absence of fracture evidence to substantiate a risk, it may be more useful to maintain astronauts at baseline (preflight) level of skeletal health during a mission. This lecture will present data from astronauts that affirms that 1) the maintenance of skeletal health during the future 3-year Mars mission will require an anti-resorptive therapy and 2) the risk for fracture during long-term health cannot be defined by the DXA clinical test alone.

Sibonga, Jean↗

Space Projects: Improvements Needed in Selecting Future Projects for Private Financing

The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and NASA jointly selected seven projects for commercialization to reduce NASA's fiscal year 1990 budget request and to help achieve the goal of increasing private sector involvement in space. However, the efforts to privately finance these seven projects did not increase the commercial sector's involvement in space to the extent desired. The General Accounting Office (GAO) determined that the projects selected were not a fair test of the potential of increasing commercial investment in space at an acceptable cost to the government, primarily because the projects were not properly screened. That is, neither their suitability for commercialization nor the economic consequences of seeking private financing for them were adequately evaluated before selection. Evaluations and market tests done after selection showed that most of the projects were not viable candidates for private financing. GAO concluded that projects should not be removed from NASA's budget for commercial development until after careful screening has been done to determine whether adequate commercial demand exists, development risks are commercially acceptable and private financing is found or judged to be highly likely, and the cost effectiveness of such a decision is acceptable. Premature removal of projects from NASA's budget ultimately can cause project delays and increased costs when unsuccessful commercialization candidates must be returned to the budget. NASA also needs to ensure appropriate comparisons of government and private financing options for future commercialization projects.

Source record↗

Cassini tour cost reductions

The original design of the Cassini tour violated the cost constraint for the mission operations and data analysis by more than 30 percent. This challenge was addressed by performing tradeoffs in order to establish a modified risk and performance posture for the operations organization. This new posture accepted more data acquisition risk with minimal impact to the mission objectives, and brought the operation costs to within the program's constraints. The methodology employed within the Cassini program in order to address the tour cost, risk and performance parameters is presented.

Duxbury, J. H.↗

Developing and Implementing Risk-Based Research Safety at Argonne National Laboratory

Facilities operated by the US Department of Energy (DOE) are required to have extensive worker safety and health programs by regulation. Here we describe how Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has implemented the DOE requirements to bring the Laboratory’s multidisciplinary research risk to an acceptable level to safely execute ANL’s mission to perform cutting-edge research.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Integrated Medical Model Verification, Validation, and Credibility

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) was designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic (stochastic process) model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A probabilistic approach is taken since exact (deterministic) results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation. METHODS: In 2008, the IMM team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) was published, the IMM team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. RESULTS: IMM VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices, IMM VV Plan status, and a synopsis of any changes or updates to the IMM during the reporting period. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including Operations, Science and Technology Planning, and Exploration Planning. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM project of combining the IMM VV Plan with 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.

Validation↗

Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project Verification, Validation, and Credibility (VVandC)

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project supports end user requests by employing the Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) and IMM tools as well as subject matter expertise within the Project. The iMED houses data used by the IMM. The IMM is designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A stochastic approach is taken because deterministic results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation, as well as lay the foundation for external review and application. METHODS: In 2008, the Project team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) [1] was published, the Project team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. Construction of these tools included meeting documentation and evidence requirements sufficient to meet external review success criteria. RESULTS: IMM Project VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include updates to the 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM Project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the HRP NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document working group and the NASA-HDBK-7009 [2]. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including operations, science and technology planning, and exploration planning. IMM v4.0 is slated for operational release in the FY015 and current VVC assessments illustrate the expected VVC status prior to the completion of customer lead external review efforts. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM Project of incorporating Project-specific recommended practices and guidelines for implementing the 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM Project represented a critical communication tool in providing clear and concise suitability assessments to IMM customers. These processes have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.

Walton, M.↗

Numerical aerodynamic simulation facility feasibility study, executive summary

There were three major issues examined in the feasibility study. First, the ability of the proposed system architecture to support the anticipated workload was evaluated. Second, the throughput of the computational engine (the flow model processor) was studied using real application programs. Third, the availability, reliability, and maintainability of the system were modeled. The evaluations were based on the baseline systems. The results show that the implementation of the Numerical Aerodynamic Simulation Facility, in the form considered, would indeed be a feasible project with an acceptable level of risk. The technology required (both hardware and software) either already exists or, in the case of a few parts, is expected to be announced this year.

Source record↗

Numerical aerodynamic simulation facility feasibility study

There were three major issues examined in the feasibility study. First, the ability of the proposed system architecture to support the anticipated workload was evaluated. Second, the throughput of the computational engine (the flow model processor) was studied using real application programs. Third, the availability reliability, and maintainability of the system were modeled. The evaluations were based on the baseline systems. The results show that the implementation of the Numerical Aerodynamic Simulation Facility, in the form considered, would indeed be a feasible project with an acceptable level of risk. The technology required (both hardware and software) either already exists or, in the case of a few parts, is expected to be announced this year. Facets of the work described include the hardware configuration, software, user language, and fault tolerance.

Source record↗

Integrated Application of Active Controls (IAAC) technology to an advanced subsonic transport project: Final ACT configuration evaluation

The Final ACT Configuration Evaluation Task of the Integrated Application of Active Controls (IAAC) technology project within the energy efficient transport program is summarized. The Final ACT Configuration, through application of Active Controls Technology (ACT) in combination with increased wing span, exhibits significant performance improvements over the conventional baseline configuration. At the design range for these configurations, 3590 km, the block fuel used is 10% less for the Final ACT Configuration, with significant reductions in fuel usage at all operational ranges. Results of this improved fuel usage and additional system and airframe costs and the complexity required to achieve it were analyzed to determine its economic effects. For a 926 km mission, the incremental return on investment is nearly 25% at 1980 fuel prices. For longer range missions or increased fuel prices, the return is greater. The technical risks encountered in the Final ACT Configuration design and the research and development effort required to reduce these risks to levels acceptable for commercial airplane design are identified.

Source record↗

Understanding and avoiding potential problems in implementing automation

Technology-driven efforts to implement automation often encounter problems due to lack of acceptance or begrudging acceptance by the personnel involved. It is argued in this paper that the level of automation perceived by an individual heavily influences whether or not the automation is accepted by that individual. The factors that appear to affect perceived level of automation are discussed. Issues considered include the impact of automation on the system and the individual, correlates of acceptance, problems and risks of automation, and factors influencing alienation. Based on an understanding of these issues, a set of eight guidelines is proposed as a possible means of avoiding problems in implementing automation.

Rouse, W. B.↗

Group Task Force on Satellite Rescue and Repair

The Group Task Force was chartered by the Administrator of NASA to recommend 'a policy outlining the criteria, the design standards, and the pricing model to guide NASA in assessing the responsibilities for government and nongovernment Satellite Rescue and Repair Missions.' Criteria for accepting such missions, risks, and benefits to all sectors of our economy involved in satellite services, adequacy of planning and training, and the impact on NASA's primary mission were reviewed. The Group began by asking a more fundamental question; is satellite rescue and repair a logical element of NASA's mission? Factors considered were: (1) the probability of rescue or repair opportunities arising; (2) the economic justification for such attempts; (3) the benefits to NASA, both from such ad hoc learning experiences in space operations and the impact on the public perception of NASA; (4) the effect of such unanticipated missions on NASA's scheduled activities; (5) any potential effect on NASA's technical capability to work in space; and (6) any potential effect on U.S. economic competitiveness.

Source record↗

Risk-based Spacecraft Fire Safety Experiments

Viewgraphs on risk-based spacecraft fire safety experiments are presented. Spacecraft fire risk can never be reduced to a zero probability. Probabilistic risk assessment is a tool to reduce risk to an acceptable level.

Apostolakis, G.↗

Estimating Lives Of Space Shuttle Parts

SSPOC (Space Shuttle Probabilistic Optimization Code) computer program, implements probabilistic mathematical model, accepts defined distributions of parameters controlling life of Space Shuttle main engine. Used to perform tradeoff studies to optimize between service life and acceptable level of risk, with greater accuracy. Also includes probability of removal and failure of parts, along with number of surviving parts for each interval of inspections. Written in FORTRAN 77, and user interface written in PASCAL(R).

Watkins, Tommie, Jr.↗

General Public Space Travel and Tourism: Executive Summary - Volume 1

Travel and tourism is one of the world's largest businesses. Its gross revenues exceed $400 billion per year in the U.S. alone, and it is our second largest employer. U.S. private sector business revenues in the space information area now approximate $10 billion per year, and are increasing rapidly. Not so in the human spaceflight area. After spending $100s of billions (1998 dollars) in public funds thereon, and continuing to spend over $5 billion per year, the government is still the only customer for human spaceflight goods and services. Serious and detailed consideration was first given to the possibility of space being opened up to trips by the general public three decades ago, and some initial attempts to do so were made a dozen years ago. But the difficulties were great and the Challenger disaster put an end to them. In recent years professional space tourism studies have been conducted in the United Kingdom, Germany and, especially, Japan. In the U.S., technological progress has been pronounced; we have had nearly a decade's experience in seeing our astronauts travel to-from low Earth orbit (LEO) safely, and we expect to commence assembly of a LEO space station housing a half-dozen people this year. Too, NASA and our space industry now have new and promising space transportation development programs underway, especially the X-33 and X-34 programs, and some related, further generation, basic technology development programs. And five private companies are also working on the design of new surface - LEO vehicles. The first professional space tourism market studies have been conducted in several countries in the past few years, especially in Japan and here. The U.S. study makes it clear that, conceptually, tens of millions of us would like to take a trip to space if we could do so with reasonable safety, comfort and reliability, and at an acceptable price. Initial businesses will address the desires of those willing to pay a greater price and accept a greater risk. A two-year cooperative Space Act agreement study has been conducted by our National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the Space Transportation Association. It was conducted by NASA and STA study leaders drawing upon the competence, experience and hard-nosed imagination of a national Steering Group and scores of attendees at a multi-day Workshop. The study has involved scores of professionals and business people from various areas: astronauts; space booster technology and operations professionals; a hotel architect and a hotel operator; an airline planner; insurance underwriters; space sickness experts; space theme park designers; space and travel and tourism association and business executives; a space-related financier; university tourism and space policy experts; present and former space-responsible government officials; space entrepreneurs; space writers; This study concludes that serious national attention should now be given to activities that would enable the expansion of today's terrestrial space tourism businesses, and the creation of in-space travel and tourism businesses. Indeed, it concludes that, in time, it should become a very important part of our Country's overall commercial and civil space business-program structure.

ONeil, Daniel↗

Cardiovascular Countermeasures for Exploration-Class Space Flight Missions

Astronaut missions to Mars may be many years or even decades in thc future but current and planned efforts can be extrapolated to required treatments and prophylaxis for delerious efforts of prolonged space flight on the cardiovascular system. The literature of candidate countermeasures was considered in combination with unpublished plans for countermeasure implementation. The scope of cardiovascular countermeasures will be guided by assessments of the efficacy of mechanical, physiological and pharmacological approaches in protecting the cardiovascular capacities of interplanetary crewmembers. Plans for countermeasure development, evaluation and validation will exploit synergies among treatment modalities with the goal of maximizing protective effects while minimizing crew time and in-flight resource use. Protection of the cardiovascular capacity of interplanetary crewmembers will become more effective and efficient over the next few decades, but trade-offs between cost and effectiveness of efficiency are always possible if the increased level of risk can be accepted.

Charles, John B.↗

Risk Reduction for Use of Complex Devices in Space Projects

We present guidel!nes to reduce risk to an acceptable level when using complex devices in space applications. Application to Virtex 4 Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) on Express Logistic Carrier (ELC) project is presented.

Berg, Melanie↗