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Proof-load test improves statistical confidence in the estimate of reliability, numerical examples indicate a definite advantage of the proof-load approach in terms of savings in structural weight. The cost of establishing the statistical distribution of strength of the structural material is also introduced into the cost formulation
Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) are described for the probabilistic structural analysis of engine components for current and future space propulsion systems. Components for these systems are subjected to stochastic thermomechanical launch loads. Uncertainties or randomness also occurs in material properties, structural geometry, and boundary conditions. Material property stochasticity, such as in modulus of elasticity or yield strength, exists in every structure and is a consequence of variations in material composition and manufacturing processes. Procedures are outlined for computing the probabilistic structural response or reliability of the structural components. The response variables include static or dynamic deflections, strains, and stresses at one or several locations, natural frequencies, fatigue or creep life, etc. Sample cases illustrates how the PSAM methods and codes simulate input uncertainties and compute probabilistic response or reliability using a finite element model with probabilistic methods.
This report describes methods and corresponding computer codes that are used to evaluate progressive damage and fracture and to perform probabilistic assessment in built-up composite structures. Structural response is assessed probabilistically, during progressive fracture. The effects of design variable uncertainties on structural fracture progression are quantified. The fast probability integrator (FPI) is used to assess the response scatter in the composite structure at damage initiation. The sensitivity of the damage response to design variables is computed. The methods are general purpose and are applicable to stitched and unstitched composites in all types of structures and fracture processes starting from damage initiation to unstable propagation and to global structure collapse. The methods are demonstrated for a polymer matrix composite stiffened panel subjected to pressure. The results indicated that composite constituent properties, fabrication parameters, and respective uncertainties have a significant effect on structural durability and reliability. Design implications with regard to damage progression, damage tolerance, and reliability of composite structures are examined.
The reliability of scanning laser acoustic microscopy (SLAM) for detecting surface voids in structural ceramic test specimens was statistically evaluated. Specimens of sintered silicon nitride and sintered silicon carbide, seeded with surface voids, were examined by SLAM at an ultrasonic frequency of 100 MHz in the as fired condition and after surface polishing. It was observed that polishing substantially increased void detectability. Voids as small as 100 micrometers in diameter were detected in polished specimens with 0.90 probability at a 0.95 confidence level. In addition, inspection times were reduced up to a factor of 10 after polishing. The applicability of the SLAM technique for detection of naturally occurring flaws of similar dimensions to the seeded voids is discussed. A FORTRAN program listing is given for calculating and plotting flaw detection statistics.
The methods developed to predict the reliability of aircraft structures depend upon inspection effectiveness which, in turn, depends upon structural complexity, quality, and the percentage of the structure inspected. Reliability can be enhanced by choosing materials properly, designing damage-tolerant structures, and increasing inspection frequency. And, for fleet operations, costs can be minimized through proper inspection schedules, and enhanced reliability can be compatible with minimum cost. The methods are derived from a combination of probability theory and engineering equations. A discussion of these methods is presented.
The factors that affect reliability of nondestructive detection of flaws in structural ceramics by microfocus radiography and scanning laser acoustic microscopy (SLAM) were investigated. Reliability of void detection in silicon nitride and silicon carbide by microfocus X-rays was affected by photon energy level, material chemistry in the immediate vicinity of the void, and the presence of loose powder aggregates inside the void cavity. The sensitivity of SLAM to voids was affected by material microstructure, the level of porosity, and the condition of the specimen surfaces. Statistical results are presented in the form of probability of detection as a function of void diameter for green compacts and sintered materials.
Computations were performed to determine the effect of an overall bow-type imperfection on the reliability of structural panels under combined compression and shear loadings. A panel's reliability is the probability that it will perform the intended function - in this case, carry a given load without buckling or exceeding in-plane strain allowables. For a panel loaded in compression, a small initial bow can cause large bending stresses that reduce both the buckling load and the load at which strain allowables are exceeded; hence, the bow reduces the reliability of the panel. In this report, analytical studies on two stiffened panels quantified that effect. The bow is in the shape of a half-sine wave along the length of the panel. The size e of the bow at panel midlength is taken to be the single random variable. Several probability density distributions for e are examined to determine the sensitivity of the reliability to details of the bow statistics. In addition, the effects of quality control are explored with truncated distributions.
Realizing wider utilization of ceramic matrix composites (CMC) requires the development of advanced structural analysis technologies. This article focuses on the use of interactive reliability models to predict component probability of failure. The deterministic William-Warnke failure criterion serves as theoretical basis for the reliability model presented here. The model has been implemented into a test-bed software program. This computer program has been coupled to a general-purpose finite element program. A simple structural problem is presented to illustrate the reliability model and the computer algorithm.
High and low intensity dynamic environments experienced by a spacecraft during launch and on-orbit operations, respectively, induce structural loads and motions, which are difficult to reliably predict. Structural dynamics in low- and mid-frequency bands are sensitive to component interface uncertainty and non-linearity as evidenced in laboratory testing and flight operations. Analytical tools for prediction of linear system response are not necessarily adequate for reliable prediction of mid-frequency band dynamics and analysis of measured laboratory and flight data. A new MATLAB toolbox, designed to address the key challenges of mid-frequency band dynamics, is introduced in this paper. Finite-element models of major subassemblies are defined following rational frequency-wavelength guidelines. For computational efficiency, these subassemblies are described as linear, component mode models. The complete structural system model is composed of component mode subassemblies and linear or non-linear joint descriptions. Computation and display of structural dynamic responses are accomplished employing well-established, stable numerical methods, modern signal processing procedures and descriptive graphical tools. Parametric sensitivity and Monte-Carlo based system identification tools are used to reconcile models with experimental data and investigate the effects of uncertainties. Models and dynamic responses are exported for employment in applications, such as detailed structural integrity and mechanical-optical-control performance analyses.
This paper identifies significant issues that pertain to the estimation and use of system reliability in the design of advanced propulsion system structures. Linkages between the reliabilities of individual components and their effect on system design issues such as performance, cost, availability, and certification are examined. The need for system reliability computation to address the continuum nature of propulsion system structures and synergistic progressive damage modes has been highlighted. Available system reliability models are observed to apply only to discrete systems. Therefore a sequential structural reanalysis procedure is formulated to rigorously compute the conditional dependencies between various failure modes. The method is developed in a manner that supports both top-down and bottom-up analyses in system reliability.
The NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis computer program combines state-of-the-art probabilistic algorithms with general purpose structural analysis methods to compute the probabilistic response and the reliability of engineering structures. Uncertainty in loading, material properties, geometry, boundary conditions and initial conditions can be simulated. The structural analysis methods include nonlinear finite element and boundary element methods. Several probabilistic algorithms are available such as the advanced mean value method and the adaptive importance sampling method. The scope of the code has recently been expanded to include probabilistic life and fatigue prediction of structures in terms of component and system reliability and risk analysis of structures considering cost of failure. The code is currently being extended to structural reliability considering progressive crack propagation. Several examples are presented to demonstrate the new capabilities.
Space vehicle optimal design based on reliability analysis, taking into account cost of materials strength tests
Analysis considers statistical variation of material strength and interactions between catastrophic and failure fatigue modes. Procedure employs concepts of fracture mechanics and extreme point processes associated with stationary narrow-band random vibrations.
The Weibull modulus, fracture toughness and thermal properties of a silicon nitride material used to make a gas turbine combustor were experimentally measured. The location and nature of failure origins resulting from bend tests were determined with fractographic analysis. The measured Weibull parameters were used along with thermal and stress analysis to determine failure probabilities of the combustor with the CARES design code. The effect of data censoring, FEM mesh refinement, and fracture criterion were considered in the analysis.
The Weibull modulus, fracture toughness and thermal properties of a silicon nitride material used to make a gas turbine combustor were experimentally measured. The location and nature of failure origins resulting from bend tests were determined with fractographic analysis. The measured Weibull parameters were used along with thermal and stress analysis to determine failure probabilities of the combustor with the CARES design code. The effect of data censoring, FEM mesh refinement, and fracture criterion were considered in the analysis.
The importance of high fracture toughness and reliability in Si3N4, and SiC-based structural ceramics and ceramic matrix composites is reviewed. The potential of these ceramics and ceramic matrix composites for high temperature applications in defense and aerospace applications such as gas turbine engines, radomes, and other energy conversion hardware have been well recognized. Numerous investigations were pursued to improve fracture toughness and reliability by incorporating various reinforcements such as particulate-, whisker-, and continuous fiber into Si3N4 and SiC matrices. All toughening mechanisms, e.g. crack deflection, crack branching, crack bridging, etc., essentially redistribute stresses at the crack tip and increase the energy needed to propagate a crack through the composite material, thereby resulting in improved fracture toughness and reliability. Because of flaw insensitivity, continuous fiber reinforced ceramic composite (CFCC) was found to have the highest potential for higher operating temperature and longer service conditions. However, the ceramic fibers should display sufficient high temperature strength and creep resistance at service temperatures above 1000 'C. The greatest challenge to date is the development of high quality ceramic fibers with associate coatings able to maintain their high strength in oxidizing environment at high temperature. In the area of processing, critical issues are, preparation of optimum matrix precursors, precursor infiltration into fiber array, and matrix densification at a temperature, where grain crystallization and fiber degradation do not occur. A broad scope of effort is required for improved processing and properties with a better understanding of all candidate composite systems.
State of the art deployable structures are mainly being designed for medium to large size satellites. The lack of reliable deployable structural systems for low cost, small volume, rideshare-class spacecraft severely constrains the potential for using small satellite platforms for affordable deep space science and exploration precursor missions that could be realized with solar sails. There is thus a need for reliable, lightweight, high packaging efficiency deployable booms that can serve as the supporting structure for a wide range of small satellite systems including solar sails for propulsion. The National Air and Space Administration (NASA) is currently investing in the development of a new class of advanced deployable shell-based composite booms to support future deep space small satellite missions using solar sails. The concepts are being designed to: meet the unique requirements of small satellites, maximize ground testability, permit the use of low-cost manufacturing processes that will benefit scalability, be scalable for use as elements of hierarchical structures (e.g. trusses), allow long duration storage, have high deployment reliability, and have controlled deployment behavior and predictable deployed dynamics. This paper will present the various rollable boom concepts that are being developed for 5-20 m class size deployable structures that include solar sails with the so-called High Strain Composites (HSC) materials. The deployable composite booms to be presented are being developed to expand the portfolio of available rollable booms for small satellites and maximize their length for a given packaged volume. Given that solar sails are a great example of volume and mass optimization, the booms were designed to comply with nominal solar sail system requirements for 6U CubeSats, which are a good compromise between those of smaller form factors (1U, 2U and 3U CubeSats) and larger ones (12 U and 27 U future CubeSats, and ESPA-class microsatellites). Solar sail missions for such composite boom systems are already under consideration and development at NASA, as well as mission studies that will benefit from planned scaled-up versions of the composite boom technologies to be introduced. The paper presents ongoing research and development of thin-shell rollable composite booms designed under the particular stringent and challenging system requirements of relatively large solar sails housed on small satellites. These requirements will be derived and listed. Several new boom concepts are proposed and other existing ones are improved upon using thin-ply composite materials to yield unprecedented compact deployable structures. Some of these booms are shown in Fig. 1. For every boom to be introduced the scalable fabrication process developed to keep the overall boom system cost down will be shown. Finally, the initial results of purposely designed boom structural characterization test methods with gravity off-loading will be presented to compare their structural performance under expected and general load cases.
The following accomplishments were made towards the goal of an optimized whiskerless diode chip for submillimeter wavelength applications. (1) Surface channel whiskerless diode structure was developed which offers excellent DC and RF characteristics, reduced shunt capacitance and simplified fabrication compared to mesa and proton isolated structures. (2) Reliable fabrication technology was developed for the surface channel structure. The new anode plating technology is a major improvement. (3) DC and RF characterization of the surface channel diode was compared with whisker contacted diodes. This data indicates electrical performance as good as the best reported for similar whisker contacted devices. (4) Additional batches of surface channel diodes were fabricated with excellent I-V and reduced shunt capacitance. (5) Large scale capacitance modelinng was done for the planar diode structure. This work revealed the importance of removing the substrate gallium arsenide for absolute minimum pad capacitance. (6) A surface channel diode was developed on quartz substrate and this substrate was completely removed after diode mounting for minimum parasitic capacitance. This work continues with the goal of producing excellent quality submillimeter wavelength planar diodes which satisfy the requirements of easy handling and robustness. These devices will allow the routine implementation of Schottky receivers into space-based applications at frequencies as high as 1 THz, and, in the future, beyond.