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DOE OSTI2023

Deploying Extended Reality (XR) for Digital Operations and Maintenance (O&M) at the Mechanisms Engineering Test Loop (METL)

This report documents the preliminary efforts to digitize operation and maintenance (O&M) activities for the Mechanisms Engineering Test Loop (METL). METL became operational in September 2018 with the mission to provide an ecosystem for Advanced Reactor Development (ARD). METLs flagship facility’s primary purpose is conducting small to intermediate scale tests for Sodium Fast Reactors (SFR). Its resemblance to commercial SFR’s intermediate heat transport system, prototypic operating conditions, and industrial construction practices/materials provides the overarching benefit of establishing a proving ground for emerging operations and maintenance (O&M) activities such as incorporating Extended Reality (XR) applications throughout the program lifecycle.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning for postprocessing ensemble streamflow forecasts

Skillful streamflow forecasts can inform decisions in various areas of water policy and management. We integrate numerical weather prediction ensembles, distributed hydrological model, and machine learning to generate ensemble streamflow forecasts at medium-range lead times (1–7 days). We demonstrate the application of machine learning as postprocessor for improving the quality of ensemble streamflow forecasts. Our results show that the machine learning postprocessor can improve streamflow forecasts relative to low-complexity forecasts (e.g., climatological and temporal persistence) as well as standalone hydrometeorological modeling and neural network. The relative gain in forecast skill from postprocessor is generally higher at medium-range timescales compared to shorter lead times; high flows compared to low–moderate flows, and the warm season compared to the cool ones. Overall, our results highlight the benefits of machine learning in many aspects for improving both the skill and reliability of streamflow forecasts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Frost prediction using machine learning and deep neural network models

This study describes accurate, computationally efficient models that can be implemented for practical use in predicting frost events for point-scale agricultural applications. Frost damage in agriculture is a costly burden to farmers and global food security alike. Timely prediction of frost events is important to reduce the cost of agricultural frost damage and traditional numerical weather forecasts are often inaccurate at the field-scale in complex terrain. In this paper, we developed machine learning (ML) algorithms for the prediction of such frost events near Alcalde, NM at the point-scale. ML algorithms investigated include deep neural network, convolution neural networks, and random forest models at lead-times of 6–48 h. Our results show promising accuracy (6-h prediction RMSE = 1.53–1.72°C) for use in frost and minimum temperature prediction applications. Seasonal differences in model predictions resulted in a slight negative bias during Spring and Summer months and a positive bias in Fall and Winter months. Additionally, we tested the model transferability by continuing training and testing using data from sensors at a nearby farm. We calculated the feature importance of the random forest models and were able to determine which parameters provided the models with the most useful information for predictions. We determined that soil temperature is a key parameter in longer term predictions (>24 h), while other temperature related parameters provide the majority of information for shorter term predictions. The model error compared favorable to previous ML based frost studies and outperformed the physically based High Resolution Rapid Refresh forecasting system making our ML-models attractive for deployment toward real-time monitoring of frost events and damage at commercial farming operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Predicting Biomass Yields of Advanced Switchgrass Cultivars for Bioenergy and Ecosystem Services Using Machine Learning

The production of advanced perennial bioenergy crops within marginal areas of the agricultural landscape is gaining interest due to its potential to sustainably produce feedstocks for biofuels and bioproducts while also improving the sustainability and resilience of commodity crop production. However, predicting the biomass yields of this production system is challenging because marginal areas are often relatively small and spread around agricultural fields and are typically associated with various abiotic conditions that limit crop production. Machine learning (ML) offers a viable solution as a biomass yield prediction tool because it is suited to predicting relationships with complex functional associations. The objectives of this study were to (1) evaluate the accuracy of commonly applied ML algorithms in agricultural applications for predicting the biomass yields of advanced switchgrass cultivars for bioenergy and ecosystem services and (2) determine the most important biomass yield predictors. Datasets on biomass yield, weather, land marginality, soil properties, and agronomic management were generated from three field study sites in two U.S. Midwest states (Illinois and Iowa) over three growing seasons. The ML algorithms evaluated in the study included random forests (RFs), gradient boosting machines (GBMs), artificial neural networks (ANNs), K-neighbors regressor (KNR), AdaBoost regressor (ABR), and partial least squares regression (PLSR). Coefficient of determination (R 2 ) and mean absolute error (MAE) were used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the tested algorithms. Results showed that the ensemble methods, RF (R 2 = 0.86, MAE = 0.62 Mg/ha), GBM (R 2 = 0.88, MAE = 0.57 Mg/ha), and GBM (R 2 = 0.78, MAE = 0.66 Mg/ha), were the most accurate in predicting biomass yields of the Independence, Liberty, and Shawnee switchgrass cultivars, respectively. This is in agreement with similar studies that apply ML to multi-feature problems where traditional statistical methods are less applicable and datasets used were considered to be relatively small for ANNs. Consistent with previous studies on switchgrass, the most important predictors of biomass yield included average annual temperature, average growing season temperature, sum of the growing season precipitation, field slope, and elevation. This study helps pave the way for applying ML as a management tool for alternative bioenergy landscapes where understanding agronomic and environmental performance of a multifunctional cropping system seasonally and interannually at the sub-field scale is critical.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Biomass Productivity by Forecast‐Informed Pond Operations

ABSTRACT Microalgal cultivation for biofuels and proteins holds significant promise but faces challenges in achieving economically viable biomass productivity under variable environmental conditions. This study introduces a forecast‐informed pond operation (FIPO) system that uses numerical weather prediction (NWP) ensemble forecasts and the biomass assessment tool (BAT) to optimize daily dilution rates for enhanced biomass production. In contrast to the current practice, where fixed dilution rates are based on operator experience, the FIPO system determines the optimal dilution rate based on future weather forecasts and biomass growth conditions. Our experiments validate the effectiveness of FIPO in both short‐ and long‐term growth scenarios. In short‐term experiments, FIPO increased biomass production by 21.3% compared to batch growth and 7.4% over fixed dilution (60% every 3 days) operations. The NWP forecast‐informed operations achieved biomass production nearly identical to that using perfect weather forecasts, highlighting the accuracy of current NWP forecasts for guiding pond operations. In long‐term experiments, FIPO resulted in biomass production increases of 13.3% and 17.8% compared to two fixed dilution rates (60% every 3 days and 20% daily). These findings underscore the viability of using NWP forecasts to optimize microalgal cultivation systems. By adjusting daily dilution rates in response to forecasted weather, operators can achieve higher biomass yields and mitigate risks associated with environmental variability. This study provides a foundation for future research and practical applications in commercial‐scale microalgal production.

Yan, Hongxiang [Energy and Environment Directorate↗

DOE OSTI2022

Observing Profiles of Derived Kinematic Field Quantities Using a Network of Profiling Sites

Abstract Observations of thermodynamic and kinematic parameters associated with derivatives of the thermodynamics and wind fields, namely, advection, vorticity, divergence, and deformation, can be obtained by applying Green’s theorem to a network of observing sites. The five nodes that comprise the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) profiling network, spaced 50–80 km apart, are used to obtain measurements of these parameters over a finite region. To demonstrate the applicability of this technique at this location, it is first applied to gridded model output from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) numerical weather prediction model, using profiles from the locations of ARM network sites, so that values calculated from this method can be directly compared to finite difference calculations. Good agreement is found between both approaches as well as between the model and values calculated from the observations. Uncertainties for the observations are obtained via a Monte Carlo process in which the profiles are randomly perturbed in accordance with their known error characteristics. The existing size of the ARM network is well suited to capturing these parameters, with strong correlations to model values and smaller uncertainties than a more closely spaced network, yet it is small enough that it avoids the tendency for advection to go to zero over a large area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Moving beyond the Aerosol Climatology of WRF-Solar: A Case Study over the North China Plain

Numerical weather prediction (NWP), when accessible, is a crucial input to short-term solar power forecasting. WRF-Solar, the first NWP model specifically designed for solar energy applications, has shown promising predictive capability. Nevertheless, few attempts have been made to investigate its performance under high aerosol loading, which attenuates incoming radiation significantly. The North China Plain is a polluted region due to industrialization, which constitutes a proper testbed for such investigation. Here, in this paper, aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE) on three surface shortwave radiation components (i.e., global, beam, and diffuse) during five heavy pollution episodes is studied within the WRF-Solar framework. Results show that WRF-Solar overestimates instantaneous beam radiation up to 795.3 W m -2 when the aerosol DRE is not considered. Although such overestimation can be partially offset by an underestimation of the diffuse radiation of about 194.5 W m -2 , the overestimation of the global radiation still reaches 160.2 W m -2 . This undesirable bias can be reduced when WRF-Solar is powered by Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) aerosol forecasts, which then translates to accuracy improvements in photovoltaic (PV) power forecasts. This work also compares the forecast performance of the CAMS-powered WRF-Solar with that of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model. Under high aerosol loading conditions, the irradiance forecast accuracy generated by WRF-Solar increased by 53.2% and the PV power forecast accuracy increased by 6.8%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Guided Resilience Self Assessment Application

Reliable electricity access is vital for everything from hospitals to national security. When grid disturbances occur, it is crucial to minimize the amount of time it takes to recover. Grid resiliency considers both the preparation for and recovery from high-impact low-frequency disturbances (HILF) such as weather events and cyber attacks. The Department of Energy (DOE) Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO) funds the multi-laboratory Microgrids, Infrastructure Resilience, and Advanced Control Launchpad (MIRACL) project to investigate technologies to support and grow distributed wind. Researchers at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) contribute to resilience and cybersecurity efforts for the project, and have produced a resilience framework to evaluate system resilience based on individual system specifications. In order to make this framework easy for anyone to apply, I have coded a web application that allows users to input their power system qualities, goals, and perceived risks and then receive suggestions on how to improve their grid resiliency. The web application follows the seven steps in the planning stage of the framework process, allowing the user to input information about their grid and select from common goals, metrics, and hazards, as well as add their own. The application currently provides information about how to complete each step, requiring minimal prior knowledge of the framework. Future work for this application will include allowing the user to submit line drawings of their system and incorporate modeling tools so that the hazard simulations of applying the framework is completed for the user.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Unraveling the 2021 Central Tennessee flood event using a hierarchical multi-model inundation modeling framework

Flood prediction systems need hierarchical atmospheric, hydrologic, and hydraulic models to predict rainfall, runoff, streamflow, and floodplain inundation. The accuracy of such systems depends on the error propagation through the modeling chain, sensitivity to input data, and choice of models. In this study, we used multiple precipitation forcings (hindcast and forecast) to drive hydrologic and hydrodynamic models to analyze the impacts of various drivers on the estimates of flood inundation depth and extent. We implement this framework to unravel the August 2021 extreme flooding event that occurred in Central Tennessee, USA. We used two radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (STAGE4 and MRMS) as well as quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center (WPC) to drive a series of models in the hierarchical framework, including the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model, the Routing Application for Parallel Computation of Discharge (RAPID) river routing model, and the AutoRoute and TRITON inundation models. An evaluation with observed high-water marks demonstrates that the framework can reasonably simulate flood inundation. Despite the complex error propagation mechanism of the modeling chain, we show that inundation estimates are most sensitive to rainfall estimates. Most notably, QPF significantly underestimates flood magnitudes and inundations leading to unanticipated severe flooding for all stakeholders involved in the event. Finally, we discuss the implications of the hydrodynamic modeling framework for real-time flood forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Building heights and urban canopy parameters for urban modeling

GLObal Building heights for Urban Studies (UT-GLOBUS) is a random forest model based framework that provides a level-of-detail-1 (LoD-1) building height dataset. The primary objective of UT-GLOBUS is not to precisely predict the height and footprint of individual buildings, but rather to offer a functional framework for generating building level information using open-source datasets for modeling applications. Specifically, UT-GLOBUS is tailored to meet the requirements of deriving urban canopy parameters (UCPs) for the multi-layer model within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and building heights for the SOLWEIG and SUEWS model. Building-level data is accessible in vector file format (GeoPackage: .gpkg), which can be converted into raster file format (geoTIFF). The vector files employ the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) projection. The vector files are compatible with GIS platforms like QGIS and ArcGIS, and can be imported for analysis using programming languages such as Python. We are also providing UCPs required by the multi-layer urban model in the urban WRF in binary file format. Additionally, we provide the urban fractions calculated using ESA world cover dataset (https://esa-worldcover.org/en) for WRF model in binary file format. These binary files can be directly incorporated into the WRF pre-processing system (WPS).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

California - Quality-Controlled Reanalysis and Observational Data for Buoy (130), Morro Bay / Derived Data

This collection provides spatiotemporally paired reanalysis and satellite data to supplement the lidar buoy observations during the California deployments. Point time series of observed and reanalysis data are provided, using inverse distance weighting to geolocate the reanalysis data to the buoy location. Gridded time series of reanalysis data are provided, covering the California coast and extending into the Pacific Ocean. Satellite data in the coastal California region are also provided. The reanalysis collection includes the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2), the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), and the analysis system of the Rapid Refresh (RAP). The satellite data collection is that of Ribal and Young (2019). All datasets are publicly available with the sources provided in the References section.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

California - Quality-controlled Reanalysis and Observational Data for Buoy (120), Humboldt / Derived Data

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Offshore reanalysis wind speed assessment across the wind turbine rotor layer off the United States Pacific coast

Abstract. The California Pacific coast is characterized by considerable wind resource and areas of dense population, propelling interest in offshore wind energy as the United States moves toward a sustainable and decarbonized energy future. Reanalysis models continue to serve the wind energy community in a multitude of ways, and the need for validation in locations where observations have been historically limited, such as offshore environments, is strong. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) owns two lidar buoys that collect wind speed observations across the wind turbine rotor layer along with meteorological and oceanographic data near the surface to characterize the wind resource. Lidar buoy data collected from recent deployments off the northern California coast near Humboldt County and the central California coast near Morro Bay allow for validation of commonly used reanalysis products. In this article, wind speeds from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2), the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), and the analysis system of the Rapid Refresh (RAP) are validated at heights within the wind turbine rotor layer ranging from 50 to 100 m. The validation results offer guidance on the performance and uncertainty associated with utilizing reanalyses for offshore wind resource characterization, providing the offshore wind energy community with information on the conditions that lead to reanalysis error. At both California coast locations, the reanalyses tend to underestimate the observed rotor-level wind resource. Occasions of large reanalysis error occur in conjunction with stable atmospheric conditions, wind speeds associated with peak turbine power production (> 10 m s−1), and mischaracterization of the diurnal wind speed cycle in summer months.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Physics informed deep neural network embedded in a chemical transport model for the Amazon rainforest

Secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are fine particles in the atmosphere, which interact with clouds, radiation and affect the Earth’s energy budget. SOA formation involves chemistry in gas phase, aqueous aerosols, and clouds. Simulating these chemical processes involve solving a stiff set of differential equations, which are computationally expensive steps for three-dimensional chemical transport models. Deep neural networks (DNNs) are universal function approximators that could be used to represent the complex nonlinear changes in aerosol physical and chemical processes; however, key challenges such as generalizability to extended time periods, preservation of mass balance, simulating sparse model outputs, and maintaining physical constraints have limited their use in atmospheric chemistry. Here, we develop an approach of using a physics-informed DNN that overcomes previous such challenges and demonstrates its applicability for the chemical formation processes of isoprene epoxydiol SOA (IEPOX-SOA) over the Amazon rainforest. The DNN is trained with data generated by simulating IEPOX-SOA over the entire atmospheric column, using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). The trained DNN is then embedded within WRF-Chem to replace the computationally expensive default solver of IEPOX-SOA formation. The trained DNN predictions generalizes well with the default model simulation of the IEPOX-SOA mass concentrations and its size distribution (20 size bins) over several days of simulations in both dry and wet seasons. The embedded DNN reduces the computational expense of WRF-Chem by a factor of 2. Our approach shows promise in terms of application to other computationally expensive chemistry solvers in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of the MACCS Code Applicability for Nearfield Consequence Analysis

Three codes are used for comparisons in this report to evaluate the adequacy of MACCS in the nearfield, AERMOD, ARCON96 and QUIC. Test cases were developed to give a broad range of weather conditions, building dimensions and plume buoyancy. Based on the comparisons of MACCS with AERMOD, ARCON96 and QUIC across the test cases, the following observations are made: MACCS calculations configured with point-source, ground-level, nonbuoyant plumes provide nearfield results that bound the centerline, ground-level air concentrations from AERMOD, ARCON96, and QUIC. MACCS calculations with ground-level, nonbuoyant plumes that include the effects of the building wake (area source) provide nearfield results that bound the results from AERMOD and QUIC and the results from ARCON96 at distances >250 m. If using a point-source is too conservative and it is desired to bound the results from all three codes, another alternative is to use area source parameters in MACCS that are less than the standard values, i.e., an area source intermediate between the standard recommendation and a point source. All these options provide results from MACCS that are bounding for the test cases evaluated. Based on these observations, it appears that MACCS is adequate for use in nearfield calculations, given the correct parameterization.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating Polymer Properties with Different Additives for Carbon Capture and Other Applications

Anthropogenic climate change is one of this generation’s most pressing concerns, with the potential to completely alter the delicate balance we’ve struck with nature. Already, global temperatures have risen 1.29°C, leading to disrupted weather systems, extinctions, increased risks of wildfires, and sea level rise, to name a few effects. Carbon dioxide emission from the combustion of fossil fuels and other industrial activity is a large driver of this phenomenon, as it absorbs heat before it can be radiated away from Earth, trapping it. Carbon dioxide has reached unprecedented levels in our atmosphere, showing a 50% increase from preindustrial averages to a whopping 430 ppm. Thus, reducing the amount of carbon dioxide via carbon capture technology is an important endeavor that serves to benefit everyone. The Microencapsulated CO 2 Sorbent (MECS) team at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has turned to microencapsulation to approach this endeavor. Microcapsules provide an attractive approach to carbon capture, combining large surface areas for more efficient mass transfer, regenerative abilities, reduced solvent loss, and improved handling. Additionally, while existing carbon capture technology relies on industrial plants, capsules could present a modular approach to carbon capture, reducing the need for extensive physical infrastructure. The MECS team’s design consists of a polymer membrane that contains a liquid carbon sequestering sorbent, aqueous sodium carbonate. The carbon capturing reaction occurs in three distinct steps, the first of which is the dissolution of carbon dioxide into the sorbent solution and its conversion into carbonic acid (H 2 CO 3 ), shown in equations 1 and 2 respectively. Because this step hinges upon the ability of carbon dioxide to reach the solution inside the capsule, it is necessary that the microcapsule shell is permeable to carbon dioxide gas. The MECS team produces these microcapsules using the in-air droplet encapsulation apparatus (IDEA) shown in figure 1, which can produce uniform micron-scale droplets at speeds much faster than traditional single-dispersal microfluidic-based techniques. The IDEA Is 100 times faster than these current techniques and can reach up to 1000 times their speed when incorporating a multi-nozzle design. Additionally, because droplets are produced in-air via vibration, IDEA can decrease post-processing times and material waste by 99% and can fabricate microgels that are 10 to 100 times more viscous than can be produced via traditional microfluidics. While this design represents a breakthrough in the throughput, efficiency, and tunability of microcapsule production, it imposes a major constraint on the microcapsule curing process. Because microcapsule shells are crosslinked with UV light while falling 30 cm through the air, this gives them a reaction window of approximately 0.2 seconds. Thus, the system and shell formulations must be optimized such that the shells can be fully crosslinked within this very narrow window, prompting investigations into curing behavior.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Predicting Power Outage During Extreme Weather with EAGLE-I and NWS Datasets

Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, severe thunderstorms, and floods can significantly disrupt power grid systems, leading to electrical outages that result in inconvenience, economic losses, and life-threatening situations. There is a growing need for a robust and precise predictive model to forecast power outages, which will help prioritize emergency response before, during, and after extreme weather events. In this paper, we introduce machine-learning models that predict power outage risk at the state level during and after extreme weather events. We jointly utilized two publicly available datasets: the U.S. historical power outage data collected by the Environment for Analysis of Geo-Located Energy Information (EAGLE-I™) system, and the National Weather Service historical weather alert data sets. We highlight our initial result and discuss future work aimed at enhancing the model's robustness and accuracy for real-world applications.

Lee, Sangkeun (Matt)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep Learning-Based Failure Prognostic Model for PV Inverter Using Field Measurements

Here, this study presents a novel approach for the precise monitoring and prognosis of photovoltaic (PV) inverter status, which is crucial for the proactive maintenance of PV systems. It addresses the gaps in traditional model-based methods, which tend to neglect the overall reliability of inverters, and the limitations of data-driven approaches that largely depend on simulated data. This research presents a robust solution applicable to real-world scenarios. The proposed data-driven model for PV inverter failure prognosis employs actual inverter measurements, integrating various operational and weather-related factors based on domain knowledge. This approach effectively represents inverter stressors and operational status. Utilizing an Enhanced Siamese Convolutional Neural Network (ESCNN), the model merges operational data with domain knowledge features, redefining the prognosis challenge as a classification task. Furthermore, the paper discusses an ESCNN-based real-time inverter failure monitoring method developed on the well-trained model. The proposed models are rigorously trained and tested with real inverter data and a novel filtering method is included to address accidental failures in practical scenarios. The results validate the model's efficacy, and the directions for future research are also outlined.

42 ENGINEERING↗